The days are long gone when Canadian federal elections were over well before they even started counting the votes in BC.
The latest “Poll Tracker” information assembled by the CBC … combining poll results from several different sources … shows only two parties … the Liberals or Conservatives … are within range of forming government, and either could win a majority … or minority … with BC and Ontario playing a key role
“The Conservatives are ahead in Western Canada while the Liberals are ahead in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The races are relatively close in B.C. and Ontario. The New Democrats are on track to lose most or all of their seats in Quebec, while the Greens are holding double-digits in B.C. and Atlantic Canada. The Bloc Québécois is in range of winning at least the 12 seats needed for recognized party status in the House of Commons. The People’s Party has yet to show the concentration of support in any region of the country needed to win a seat, beyond potentially leader Maxime Bernier’s,” the poll-tracking analysis shows.
You can follow the CBC Poll Tracker here: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
Here’s what their latest analysis shows:
Nationally, the Conservatives score 34.4% popularity; the Liberals 33.6%; with the NDP well behind at 13.2%; the Greens at 10%; Bloc Quebecois 4.7%; and, People’s Party of Canada 3.1%.
But taking into account population/seat demographics, the picture changes: the Liberals would capture 161 seats; Conservatives 143; NDP 15; BQ 14; Greens 4; and PPC 1.
With 338 seats in the House of Commons, it takes 170 seats to win majority government.
The poll tracking analysts conclude the Liberals currently have a 34% chance of forming a majority; and give the Conservatives a 13% chance of capturing a majority.
Which makes BC’s role in determining government … especially minority government … really important!
Current poll-tracking trends show in BC, the Conservatives are in the lead, with 33% support; the Liberals follow at 28.7%; with the NDP at 17.8%; the Greens 15.7%; and, the PPC at 2.9%.
Again, taking into account population/seat demographics in BC, the Conservatives could win 14 to 30 seats; the Liberals 6 to 21; the NDP up to 13; Greens 1 to 5; and the PPC, likely 0 .
Should be really interesting to see if and how these figures change as the campaign goes on … especially AFTER the televised national debates.
Can hardly wait!
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