BC Could Hold the Key to Power

The days are long gone when Canadian federal elections were over well before they even started counting the votes in BC.

The latest “Poll Tracker” information assembled by the CBC … combining poll results from several different sources … shows only two parties … the Liberals or Conservatives … are within range of forming government, and either could win a majority … or minority … with BC and Ontario playing a key role

“The Conservatives are ahead in Western Canada while the Liberals are ahead in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The races are relatively close in B.C. and Ontario. The New Democrats are on track to lose most or all of their seats in Quebec, while the Greens are holding double-digits in B.C. and Atlantic Canada. The Bloc Québécois is in range of winning at least the 12 seats needed for recognized party status in the House of Commons. The People’s Party has yet to show the concentration of support in any region of the country needed to win a seat, beyond potentially leader Maxime Bernier’s,” the poll-tracking analysis shows.

You can follow the CBC Poll Tracker here: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Here’s what their latest analysis shows:

Nationally, the Conservatives score 34.4% popularity; the Liberals 33.6%; with the NDP well behind at 13.2%; the Greens at 10%; Bloc Quebecois 4.7%; and, People’s Party of Canada 3.1%.

But taking into account population/seat demographics, the picture changes: the Liberals would capture 161 seats; Conservatives 143; NDP 15; BQ 14; Greens 4; and PPC 1.

With 338 seats in the House of Commons, it takes 170 seats to win majority government.

The poll tracking analysts conclude the Liberals currently have a 34% chance of forming a majority; and give the Conservatives a 13% chance of capturing a majority.

Which makes BC’s role in determining government … especially minority government … really important!

Current poll-tracking trends show in BC, the Conservatives are in the lead, with 33% support; the Liberals follow at 28.7%; with the NDP at 17.8%; the Greens 15.7%; and, the PPC at 2.9%.

Again, taking into account population/seat demographics in BC, the Conservatives could win 14 to 30 seats; the Liberals 6 to 21; the NDP up to 13; Greens 1 to 5; and the PPC, likely 0 .

Should be really interesting to see if and how these figures change as the campaign goes on … especially AFTER the televised national debates.

Can hardly wait!

Harv Oberfeld

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32 Responses to BC Could Hold the Key to Power

  1. Harry Lawson says:

    Harvey,

    I have to wonder those who held their nose and voted anybody but Harper. Will they hold their nose and vote anyone but Scheer? Anyone but Trudeau ? Or will the turnout be low. All I know is if we do have a minority or a coalition government we will be having a election soonerr than later.election night will be a long night for many. . the NDP or the Greens could be the puppet master.

    (Response: Setting aside the partisans who vote automatically … many people (including me) often vote more for “against” someone rather than enthusiastically vote FOR someone. Something tells me this election may be different: no leader really impresses anyone I know … so it could come down to POLICIES … sort of What’s in it for me? Which makes the platforms … and the debates all the more interesting. h.o.)

  2. 13 says:

    I will take you analysis of these polls as good solid information Harvey. I am not sure how with the conservative lead they stand less of chance in forming a majority than the Liberals but as I said Ill run with your numbers.
    My only observation is the hype that you (and to be fair) almost everyone uses to get BCers out to vote. “BC could decide the fate……) insert gov and party of your choice. I hope your right and it come down to the last most Westerly poll in Canada to elect Scheer as our new PM. OR Ill also take a decision long before BC polls close that gives the win to Scheer and the Tories.
    Agreed, I also can hardly stand the suspense.

    (Response: Of course, a lot depends on how the vote goes back East … where Ontario has 121 seats and Quebec 78. If there’s a clear majority sweep by any party there plus a good showing in the Maritimes, Man or Alberta … BC’s 42 seats …divided amongst three parties … we’ll count for little. BUT if it remains as close as the CBC poll tracker suggests … those BC seats could decide the winner … especially with a minority government. h.O)

  3. Gene The Bean says:

    This is why polls are basically useless.

    “Again, taking into account population/seat demographics in BC, the Conservatives could win 14 to 30 seats; the Liberals 6 to 21; the NDP up to 13; Greens 1 to 5; and the PPC, likely 0 .”

    That is quite a “range”.

    I believe significantly more than 90% of voters have already made their choice. The constant “polling” will continue to just put more lipstick on your chosen pig or more hate on the other pig. Hatfields and McCoys. Until the most affluent and privileged generation in history ages out, the battle will continue. I have tremendous faith in the next generations to make our world a much nicer and inclusive place for EVERYONE – not just moneyed elitists and those with a sense of historical privilege.

    You seem to relish this Harvey and I’m happy that at least someone of sound mind enjoys this process. I find it like a brain eating amoeba taking away my IQ one cell at a time.

    Already bombarded by Con adverts. Seems like they have a problem for every solution.

    Thanks for breaking out some of the details too as I’d never have even expended the energy to click a link about polls. Also I agree about BC possibly making a difference. Lets just hope all the urban voters get out and make that difference.

  4. Leila Paul says:

    I’m not suggesting polls are not conducted objectively. What bothers me is that they may have the “power of suggestion” or may be similar to self-fulfilling prophecies.

    In any case, I don’t think it matters what Trudeau does – in Ontario and likely Quebec – he will take the majority even if his riding candidates are not appealing. The dialogue of voting for PM, as has so long been the dialogue in U.S. campaigns of voting for the president, is now prominent in Canada.

    Unless I’m way off in my impressions, we no longer even talk about voting for a party but voting for a PM. Maybe that’s because parties no longer have significantly different platforms or because most voters simply no longer trust platforms to be honest and a good predictor of what an elected party – or PM and his advisors – will actually do when elected.

    I was all set to seriously consider voting for Bernier but knew I’d have to have a favorable impression of his candidate in my riding. I was very disappointed with the content of the candidate’s website. What I seriously disliked was how vague his bio described his work history. Yet the text used his work experience as justifying him as qualified to handle financial and technical issues as they affect good government. No names of companies or corporations for whom he’d worked were listed – only that he’d had 20+ years experience in related sectors.

    Most offensive to me was the “Be the first to like…” or “Sign up and see what your friends think…” It’s as though I were listening to an old fashioned TV ad yelling “Hey kids, tell your parents to you wanna be the first kid on the block to….” That lemming like approach may work within groups but not with individuals who expect tangible information on a candidate. So I’m back to feeling I have no one in my riding I consider worthy of my vote.

    The other two candidates in my riding are women and the incumbent is a Liberal. Given the demographics in my riding and her service to their interests, I have no doubt she’ll be re-elected. Example: in London-Fanshawe, the NDP incumbent has been long entrenched and is not running this election but her daughter is. And that troubles me. The notion of hereditary incumbency in politics is something that would have once been considered a type of nepotism, I think.

    So, the brief blackface hoopla surrounding JT will be little more than a little blip and I suspect he will remain PM. To my mind, the question is not “if” but by how many seats will Trudeau win.

    I am greatly disappointed in Jagmeet Singh publicly objecting to Max Bernier’s inclusion in the debates. Even as just a matter of freedom of speech and offering a diversity of views, Singh is showing arrogance or insecurity in denouncing the inclusion of Bernier. I won’t be surprised to see the NDP do very poorly in this election. If Elizabeth May declines further in Ontario, or even overall, I will not be sorry to see her fade away.

    BTW, maybe I have a deficiency in my ability to distinguish skin tones, but I do not see Jagmeet Singh as a “person of color”. In fact, if I look at a photo of Singh next to Andrew Scheer, and let’s estimate Scheer is a 1 on a scale of 0 to 10, I’d place Singh as a 2 or at most a 2.5. Singh is just not dark enough to be a “person of color’. But it may be that I do not have adequate visual distinctions between light skin to slightly darker skin.

    It’s still nearly a month before the election and a lot can happen. But my guess is that the final result will be that people are more comfortable with the “devil they know” vs the unknown. Scheer, IMO, simply has not made a sufficiently favorable impression to unseat JT and the Liberals.

    I obviously don’t know much about all the Conservative candidates, but I doubt they’re strong enough to compensate for Scheer’s lack of ‘winning’ way vs JT’s sunny ways including his ludicrous dark ways. Still, a lot can happen in a few weeks.

  5. Gilbert says:

    We should remember that polls are often wrong. It’s also far too early to make accurate predictions. If I’m not mistaken, many polls in the USA said Hillary Clinton would be the next president.

    There are a number of reasons that polls can be inaccurate. One of course is that people sometimes lie to pollsters. Another is that they might not actually vote. If Liberals don’t vote in the same numbers as in the last election, the Conservatives will benefit. We also need to consider that sometimes people are undecided or they change their minds.

  6. e.a.f. says:

    Leila makes a good point regarding polls. Read down to the end and thought, omg that is a statement! O.K. Singh, is a person of colour. He may not be dark enough in your opinion, but you’d get one hell of an argument from people within communities of colour. Having read more than a few articles debating when you’re “black” or not in the U.S.A. or you’re not black enough.

    Polls do sometimes tell a story, but they can also tell a fairy tale. It depends upon who is conducting the poll, the questions being asked, if there are follow up questions, etc.
    Sometimes I get the sense that some polls are simply there to get people to vote for a particular candidate, to be on the “winning side”. The CBC poll is interesting and we will have to wait until election night.

    There was an interesting article up over at the CBC regarding the role housing and its cost will play in this election and perhaps what role it ought to play. Its why I think Trudeau will win, perhaps not a majority, but he’ll be P.M. of course I haven’t seen attack ads yet.

  7. hawgwash says:

    Harvey, I think the pollsters are being too generous to the NDP, but that’s not what I’m up to here.

    Advanced polling on Thanksgiving is something I can really whine about. Many will not vote at all because of it.

    The question:
    “Why are advance polls on Thanksgiving weekend?”
    The immovable bureaucratic answer:
    “We are required by the Canada Elections Act to hold advance polls on the 10th, 9th, 8th and 7th days before election day. These days coincide with Thanksgiving weekend.”

    All the Q&As:
    https://www.elections.ca/content2.aspx?section=faq&document=faqvot&lang=e

    (Response: That a LOT of advance polling days! Won’t affect my turkey feast … and let’s keep it real: that’s many days for others to get in to vote … plus voting day itself. h.o.)

  8. Leila Paul says:

    e.a.f., Many people question the legitimacy of “race”. Certainly there is so much genetic intermingling over hundreds of thousands, even millions of years, that the human species has too many genetic types to be able to identify any particular “race” unless that group has lived in isolation and bred exclusively among its own tribal members.

    What is seen is that people in certain regions of the globe have specific characteristic and features. Punjabis are Indo-Aryan and most that are of lighter skin are considered Caucasoid.

    The Indian subcontinent is immense with countless ethnicities and tribal groups. Southern portions of India seem to have people of darker skin while to the north they tend to be more Aryan, as in parts of the Punjab.

    The same applies to Persians. Some are Caucasian or Aryan while in other regions or provinces they are darker in skin tone.

    Within the debate about whether or not race is a legitimate concept, there seem to be three major racial groupings, if indeed one is an adherent of that concept. These are Caucasoid, Negroid, or Mongoloid (east Asian). Then there are naturally the interbred groups that have various traits and phenotypes.

    In this case, Jagmeet Singh may not be engaging in “cultural appropriation” but might be exploiting that some people of the Indian subcontinent are people of darker color. Remove his turban and shave his beard, and he’s likely to be lighter in skin tone than many Italians, Greeks and some people of southern Arabian tribes.

    Genetic analyses usually now include the ability to predict skin tone which is dictated by genes that have been identified. The fact British and other European colonial empires were involved for long periods in India, as well as other parts of Asia, also means many British interbred with the inhabitants. The same is true of China where many have Caucasoid features.

    I think truly dark-skinned people may not appreciate having Jagmeet Singh claim to be a “person of color”. Some people I know who are very dark skinned feel he’s making a claim that should help him politically. Then, again, if others perceive that Singh is claiming something that is not entirely true, it may backfire.

    So what does that say about what Canada has become? When one of the federal candidates has to tell voters that he’s a “person of color”. If the skin color of any person is dark enough, chances are most voters do not need to be told.

    (Response: Unless something more urgent intervenes, my next Blog will on Singh and how he’s dealing with the blackface AND OTHER racial issues. h.o.)

  9. DBW says:

    By the time I had thought through my feelings on Bernier and immigration, you had moved on to Trudeau. By the time I had figured out what to say on that topic, you had moved on to poll results. You are fired up about this election, so fearing that you will on to something else in a couple of days I will put out my off the wall thoughts now.

    If you want to get a better idea about who might win the election check out some betting sites. Remember that people who are betting are not telling us who they will vote for; they are telling us who they think will win and putting up actual cash to prove their case.

    One site has the Conservatives as slight favourites at -110 while the Liberals are at +110. For the uninitiated that means you pay $110 to win $100 by picking the Cons while paying only $100 to win $110 by picking the Libs. (You also get back the money you bet.)
    The NDP is at +1200. The Greens at +5000 and the PPC is at +10000. If you have $100 to throw away you can win big on the off chance that one of those parties wins.

    At another site the odds are the same between the Cons and the Libs but at this site you can bet on whether the outcome will be majority or minority regardless of party. Right now the odds are in favour of a minority government. The over/under on the number of seats for the winning party is only 155.

    I am hoping that the oddsmaker have it right when it comes to a minority government. Any party polling around 35% does not deserve a majority.

    (Response: Those other topics are still open for Comments… and are still being followed/read. Would be interested in your perspective. h.o)

  10. Leila Paul says:

    Betting! GAMBLING on the election? LOL.

    I may be old but I surely am naive. I had no idea it would be legal – less yet done so openly!

    Since I never gamble or buy lottery tickets, which has always indicated to me government was destroyed our former moral underpinnings – I now no longer have doubts.

    I will not be voting. The election and politicians in general are just another form of entertainment and distraction.

    I wonder what we’re missing and what we should be focused on.

    Harvey, I look forward to your next column. Your insights on Jagmeet Singh will be of much value . I think it will help us see what we’ve become as Canadians.

    I’ve been wondering for a while what it means when the descriptor of “racialized” is used. Racialized implies a progression from non-race to race, or an imputing to someone a race that was not used to define them before. I think, from my memory, it’s a recently created word.

    I’d like to explore the etymology of the word “racialized” and how we’ve accepted its use without, wht I’d consider, adequate skepticism.

  11. BMCQ says:

    You may be correct or you may not be correct Harvey, perhaps B.C. could somehow play a part in the Election of our PM and so called Ruling Party if the count is close over the rest of Canada .

    I suppose at First Blush my comment on that possibly taking place would be this .

    If Canadians in the rest of Canada do not realize what a Hole PM Justin and his Minions have Dug for the Great Country of Canada and it’s Good People it may already be too late .

    Then there is the almost unbelievable Faith that so many in Media and the Population in General put into Polling . How many times we need to see that Polls have been far off in their Forecasting, correct Premier Dix, Brexit Remainers, President Hillary, and so many more ?

    Interestingly enough latest Polling in the UK shows that an even larger number of UK Voters are in favour of “Brexit” than ever by quite a margin, yet “Remainers” are convinced they could win .

    (Edited ..off topic.)

    We all have our own opinions on Polling and personally I do not put much faith in Polls .

    I mentioned yesterday that I have done some polling myself and I found that several Liberal Supporters that now cannot stand PM Justin will still vote Liberal no matter what, what does that tell us ?

    Of course this is your Blog Harvey but I think it might be quite interesting if once the Election is behind us and we have the results we might discuss those results and compare those to what the Polling told us over the duration of the Campaign .

    Unless there is a Catastrophic Event my own Polling (from our Golden Doodle) tells me that the Greens and now the recovering NDP (congrats Mr. Singh) will take many Votes from the Liberals but those Votes will not translate into many Seats for either Party .

    Greens under 5 seats and NDP under 17 .

    I would rather listen to Polling Numbers from our Golden Doodle than almost all of what we see from Pollsters of today .

    The Methodology of Polling today is seriously Flawed and On Line Polling does not tell the whole story .

    There is a newly released Poll out today and it shows the conservatives in the Lead, how many Liberals will endorse that ?

    Sometimes all we have is our own Unbiased Opinion and that is mine .

    DBW

    I was looking forward to your comments on “Black/Brown Face Gate” .

  12. 13 says:

    “The notion of hereditary incumbency would be considered nepotism, I think”
    Never has that ever been as obvious as our current PM. Does anyone think that our current PM would have ever been elected had his name been Justin Smith?
    Or his bio had read Justin Smith,has been a drama teacher and a ski instructor.

  13. 13 says:

    “Lets hope all the urban voters get out and vote”
    Im sure the author is referring to the NDP/ Liberal crowd of Vancouver MPs. Oddly most of the urban vote in Western Canada is not likely to fulfill that wish.
    I wonder what the pollsters can tell us about the demographic make up of voters by region, by age, by education, by gender.And the % of each group of eligible voters that actual get out and vote.
    I guess thats why I follow HOs blog

  14. Chuckstraight says:

    Minority government please.

  15. Gordie says:

    Just because BC counts their ballots last doesn’t mean we hold the key to power or decide who wins. The election is a nation-wide event and every Canadian voter has an influence on the outcome of the election. Saying things like BC holds the key to power makes the election more like a sporting event with a winner and a loser. If you really need to assign the responsibility of the outcome to a province, it probably should be Ontario.

    But in the end, what difference does it make which province decides the outcome?

    (Response: You’re correct… nothing to do with the timing. BUT has a LOT to do with the number of seats … 42 seats, if things are running close between Libs and Tories in Ontario versus Quebec … with the Maritimes (Lib) and Prairies (Tory) cancelling each other out … those BC seats then become critical …no matter what time the polls close or what time they finish counting. h.o)

  16. Harry Lawson says:

    Harvey

    The only poll that is truly accurate I’d at the polling station.

    Many factors affect a polling result such as questions asked demographics of those contacted, method of contacts. I could go on and on.

    How many polls and questions have have been manipulated to change the narrative or focus of a election.

  17. Gene The Bean says:

    13 – polling shows urban voters are considerably more educated, have considerably more life experience and show considerably more compassion and caring for others as opposed to rural voters. This is taken from polling done in the Excited States of Trumpistan but I’m sure it holds true in Canada.

    Don’t know about you but I’d rather have a government elected by educated, experienced and caring people than the opposite. Wouldn’t you agree?

  18. Leila Paul says:

    The motives of pollsters that make their results public is worthy of skepticism. Some polls are kept private those done internally by parties are rarely released unless they’re leaked. So is there an agenda to public polls?

    A poll is much like the track record of horses at a racetrack. Betters would look up a horse’s record of losses and wins before placing a bet.

    Now that I know bets and gambling occur on the outcome of an election, then the polls may be a substitute – but future projected – track record.

    Pity we did not use the track record before electing JT.

    GREEN LIGHT COMMITTEE

    Liberals used to have a Greenlight Committee that approved or rejected would-be candidates in ridings or EDAs. How did the federal Liberal party fail to research its PM candidates adequately in the past 3 or 4 federal elections.

    Stunning incompetence of Liberal Party execs or simply wanting a compliant performer would do as he’s told so long as he can be in position to be showered by adoring fans.

    “Let me entertain you…” That musical refrain of Gypsy Rose Lee runs through my head every time I see Juston on stage. He’s so cute with costumes and schtick. Does he sing in public? If so, does he sing on tune, I wonder?

    Did the Liberal Green Light Committee do an internal poll to see if JT would win the last election? My guess is yes.

  19. Leila Paul says:

    Gene the Bean:
    In your comment you say “polling shows urban voters are considerably more educated, have considerably more life experience and show considerably more compassion and caring for others as opposed to rural voters. ”

    Who did the poll? If it was done for Trump’s realm then his minions only issue info that serves Trump’s goals.

    Even if that were not the case, I strongly question the universality and accuracy of such a sweeping statement. My life experiences are most from cosmopolitan urban areas but I’ve also had rural life experiences and my experiences are that the sweeping generalizations are NOT accurate. It depends on many associated influences on the people of any city or rural town.

    Usually a homogeneous community is very caring of those they perceive as “their own”. They may tolerate outsiders if they are small in number and are only transient but offer monetary benefits such as tourists would.

    In urban areas, “birds of a feather…” very often holds true but it is definitely true, in my observations, among immigrant groups. Everyone is most comfortable and feels more safe inside a group whose loyalty is assured and whose cultures share similar behaviors and values.

    In today’s Canada, I’d venture to say we’re creating a stew too quickly, where too many disparate elements are thrown together too quickly. Those who built the foundations resent the benefits going to incoming groups who seem to be taking the top jobs and appear to be getting preferential treatment in the perceptions of some of those who struggled when they first came.

    If I’m even slightly correct, then those who vote in greater numbers are going to be those with the most to benefit.

    Voter fatigue and a sense of futility that not knowing who’s really making decisions – and rearranging their lives – makes a mockery of the former respect we had for the integrity of elections.

    Voter qualifications and the secured oversight of how votes were counted may no longer be something that is a high confidence factor. Computers might be programmed to count votes on something called a fractional system – rounding up numbers. Or, the computer programs at the end point, not local voting booths, may be rigged to a desired outcome.

    Polls scholls – I still remember watching the face of JT as the votes were coming in the last election. Not in one video, did JT’s face show any sense of surprise or elation that he was getting a sweeping majority. The videos I saw showed a person who demeanor was that the expected and inevitable outcome was unfolding.

    That’s one reason I will no longer vote for – with the use of computers at the end point and out of our sight – I no longer trust the outcome.

    I used to be a scrutineer in past elections. Each party would have a representative at a location where ballot boxes were opened as scrutineers watched and some ballots, if they appeared to be “spoiled” were eliminated. We trusted the same process was exercised all the way up to the final vote count.

    Today, I’d say – he who pays the pollster, likely calls the tune for the winner to dance to. I’d also guess the musicians playing the tune and the dancer are already rehearsing.

  20. BMCQ says:

    ‘Polling shows Urban Voters are considerably more educated , have considerably more life experience and show considerably more compassion and caring for others as opposed to rural voters “ .

    Does that mean if only the Elite Urban Voter was Eligible to Vote Canada as a whole would end up with a whole Country like Vancouver, Toronto, San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Detroit, Portland, Seattle, Chicago, and more Uber Elite Bastions of Wokeness and Murders ?

    I can hardly wait .

    I wonder if Polling might show us that Rural Voters should have both their Votes and Guns taken away ?

    Hell, let’s also take away Rural Schools while we are at it, why would uneducated dumb people need Schools . Just think of the money we could save .

    Wow, that hateful elitist statement was a considerably more Bigoted Comment than I might have expected from a Considerably better educated, considerably more compassionate person with considerably more life experience than a Country Bumpkin .

    Live and Learn I guess .

    Polling now seems to show that the Conservatives appear to be gaining ground and if that momentum continues to build over the next few weeks we could have a real Election on our hands .

    Does that mean that there are now more Rural Voters taking part in Polls than previously ?

    Do you Liberals on this Blog accept those latest Polling results ?

    As an educated City Slicker I sure hope Polls don’t begin to show us there are more Country Folk out there than what previous Poling indicated, if that was the case all hell could break out .

  21. Leila Paul says:

    Polls are just the prelude or prologue preparing us for the main event.

    The technologically sophisticated way an election might be rigged (or pre-arranged outcome): http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-1/

    The old fashioned crude way is attributed to Stalin who purportedly said something similar to: I don’t care how people vote; I only care who counts the votes.

    If the old Soviet Commissars (or whatever they were called) appointed candidates; controlled who managed the voting sites; decided which votes were ruined out ignorance or intent and then counted the “unpoiled” votes – the outcome was inevitable.

    No nation can survive as anything other than a tyranny without its most fundamental process of truly legitimately elections.

    Some of that includes – allowing only competent and qualified voters; competent and qualified candidates; scrupulously clean voting methods and especially unassailably accurate and honest vote counting.

    Tah tah – I’m off to play with my abacus.

  22. Marge says:

    As an educated person who grew up on a prairie farm and went to university at the ripe old age of sixteen, I can attest to the wrongs of Gene’s unqualified statement that country bumpkins have no intelligence and probably therefor should not be allowed to vote or perhaps even be educated – should we all have been sterilized as well, to follow your prejudice to its conclusion. My grandfather was an immigrant farmer and business owner from the Ukraine who knew more about politics than any city slicker ever did. And for Gene’s information, even with the best of red neck intentions he was always a strong socialist.

    I don’t know why we put much stock in polls. After all Hillary Clinton was declared to be the outright winner in the election.

    I know a bunch of little old ladies who are on all the polling sites – I think they get paid for it or coupons or something. As for CBC’s tracking poll, I wouldn’t put much faith in it as they are solid Trudeau. (Did you notice that they never mentioned that Trudeau was the only one who appeared in black face at that do in Vancouver? It was supposed to be a tuxedo black tie event! Instead CBC brought in experts to assert that Trudeau was a much changed man since 2001.)

    As for BC having a big say in the election, I wouldn’t put much faith in it. The election will be decided by Quebec and Ontario voters. Unless someone finally stands up and says that Quebec should not have as many seats as it does, things will never change. It will all be over before we cast our last votes.

  23. 13 says:

    So my take is the urban sophisticates across Canada tend to be a bit less sophisticated as you head East of the Rocky Mountains. Most urban sophisticates in Edmonton Calgary Regina and Wpg are conservative sophisticates. Oddly the berg of Vancouver is a socialist enclave . Many liberal and ndp MPs. I think that the author wants to see good voter turn out in Vancouver because he sees Vancouver as a very enlightened highly developed super sophisticated berg.
    Rural parts of British Columbia might as well try to join their less sophisticated cousins in Alberta.
    Wow to look at our great country and claim that any particular geographical location is more moral more worthy more sophisticated than any other is disturbing.

  24. Art Smith says:

    GTB
    I am so glad to see it is not only conservatives that you disdain, but also all the Gomers who live in the country. You know all those unsophisticated, simple country folk who can barely tie their own shoes without the help of an urbane, oh so smart person like yourself. The people who put the food on your table, the milk in your fridge, the steaks you barbie on the weekend, yeah, what a bunch of losers. It must be horrible to have to live in a country with these Philistines, and they all get a vote just like all the smart people. Man, the condescension just reeks.

  25. D. M. Johnston says:

    Unlike many here, I do not like any of the leaders, nor do I like any of the political parties. They are not addressing major issues, nor do any of the candidates give a damn about the future of the country.

    Despite the howls of fake news from the anti climate change crowd, climate change is happening and no one is really taking it seriously. Even the Greens fail on this issue.

    So, who to vote for?

    No one and I do not have an option to show my disgust at all political parties, except scrawling “F*** The Lot” on the ballot.

    Trudeau’s “black face” was sort of the “coup de gras” for the Liberals as I was never a big fan of the party. Our local Liberal photo-op MP has been invisible, except for the mandatory ads in the local rag.

    Mind you, being invisible, was a lot better than the previous Conservative MP, which bombarded me with mail, basically saying she was better than us. No wonder she didn’t get reelected.

    The Conservative/GOPhaux Party and it close association with racists and Nazi’s, makes my skin crawl. Even though arrogant and vile, Scheer’s Conservatives may once again despoil the land, with their creepy American style politics.

    The NDP are lead by a religious fundamentalist. Sorry fundamentalists should stay out of politics because they put religion first, country second. Look at how fundamentalists have turned the Conservative Party into a GOPfaux clone, with American corn pone politics.

    The Greens are still the most disappointing with mama May leading an incoherent and dated campaign. The Vancouver Greens on Van. city council, sealed the deal that the Green party is nothing more than a catchphrase for people wanting a banner to run under. In the Orwellian sense, the Greens are really unGreen.

    If there was an independent, even an independent wearing a tin foil hat, I would vote for him or her.

    For BC, with its holier than thou attitude and general ignorance of politics, will vote for the candidate and party that promises the moon and the stars. Sadly, though it does not take long for the voter to wail “voters remorse”, about 6 months later.

    (Response: I have voted over the years for every of the top four major parties … often as a vote against someone or party, sometimes as a vote for someone or party, or even for an independent who has an issue/cause I believe in or feel should have a chance to get discussed. I rarely DON’T vote … because I have seen so many people in so many countries struggling and even dying for that privilege … I don’t want to waste my right to do something so precious … even if I know the person/party I prefer won’t likely win. But you never know! h.o.)

  26. DBW says:

    Gene, according to wikipedia 82% of Canada is considered urban. So who exactly are these uneducated, cold-hearted, insular people that you fear?

    Once again I have been sucked into researching stuff that I would never have thought I would need. I was curious about Gene’s comment so looked up rural/urban divide and in short learned that in Canada 35% of the population resides in greater Vancouver, Toronto or Montreal.

    How those three cities vote will likely determine the outcome.

    And this divide is likely to get worse. These cities are pulling people into their areas resulting in housing and transportation problems while smaller cities out in the netherlands can’t get something like proper medical facilities because they lack the population to support them.

    Finding a balance between big cities and the rest of the country might be an under appreciated election issue.

    (Response: Appreciate your research. I’m happy this site gets people to look deeper into topics. Believe it or not, even I often learn a lot from others on here …but shh…don’t tell anyone who thinks I’m an expert on everything. h.o)

  27. Gene The Bean says:

    Geez – sorry if the truth hurts.

    My comment was from recollections of reading a story about exit polling in “murica”.

    It makes perfect sense that urban voters are considerably more educated. More doctors, lawyers, accountants and techies in the cities than in the country. Duh.

    The life experience comment was based on both employment history (varied v/s the same ‘ol), having a passport and travelling out of the country. Again, makes perfect sense.

    More ‘compassion and caring’ as I recall was derived from questions around taxpayer funding of healthcare and drug addiction, specifically the opioid crisis.

    The response by the Neo-Cons here just shows why polling is nonsense. The poll I mentioned here didn’t fit their personal narrative so it is bogus and attacked.

    As mentioned I believe more than 90% of us have already decided where our vote goes. Polling is just a side dish and gives the media something to try and make an interesting story out of.

    Like Harvey said, lets see if “the polls” change after the debates.

    (Edited…off topic. )

  28. DBW says:

    Sorry Harvey, I know you are on to another topic and I know I probably shouldn’t be responding but I can’t let this go.

    Gene, for the most part we agree more often than we disagree but I am struggling trying to make sense of your urban comments.

    Sure, urbanites may be more educated and more sophisticated, but I am not clear what you are trying to conclude from that. I live in a small city of 12,000. About 40% of the people are of first nation ancestry. Too many of these people for a whole whack of reasons are under educated as defined by schooling (not by life experience) and for the same reasons have not travelled a whole lot. I will guarantee you that they are as compassionate and caring as any other group of people. And I hope like hell that they vote. In the past they have mostly voted NDP (as have I) but if they all of a sudden found the Conservatives more appealing then I would respect that decision as their voices need to be heard.

    Just to be clear Gene, truth doesn’t hurt. Stereotyping on the other hand can. People here aren’t upset at your claim that one group is more educated or more travelled or whatever, but you are implying some kind of conclusion that most of us are not getting.

    (Response: Even when I post a new topic, I leave the previous ones open for some time because they are still read by many checking in and I’m happy to have the discussion continue. h.o)

  29. 13 says:

    Gene as your first kick at this rather bizzare discussion was addressed to 13 may I respond to your defense of the thesis that urban people are more educated than rural.
    “DUH”????
    If you want to claim that their are more people in a smaller space most get that. If you can find a ratio that shows a higher percentage of the total urban population achieves higher grades than rural students , go ahead and find that . Just remember that you have to compare all of Vancouver to all of a rural location. Duh
    My guess is that the ratio of rural students achieving a higher education is on par with urban numbers.
    Or do you believe that an accountant from Burnaby is better educated than an accountant from Dawson Creek? On a one to one basis.

  30. DBW says:

    Again, I am sorry Harvey, and not because I am responding to an old post but because I am responding to something somebody said who is probably not even reading this. (I know you keep old posts open but the old numbering system made it easier for us to know when a new comment had been made.

    13 – who I assume is still reading – some cities are more educated than others. This article is a bit out of date but you get the idea. The differences are likely job related. Big cities with all their head offices, post secondary schools, government bureaucracies, medical specialists are going to have a higher ratio of university grads than a logging or fishing town.

    That’s not what troubles me about Gene’s comment. While he rails against privilege and elitism and the money class and the aging boomer generation (and I actually agree with him on all that), he seems to suggest that the urban voters with all their education and privilege and wealth will somehow save the day.

    I left the big city for a small town 45 years ago and I am sensitive to these kinds of comments. (And just for the record, I believe I check off all the boxes that Gene wants. I am educated, I am empathetic to the plight of others less fortunate, I vote for progessive parties. I just won’t put my life experience ahead of anybody else’s.)

    And to make sure I am on topic Harvey, I think these perceived divides that separate us into groups that probably share more in common than they would like to believe is what will determine the outcome of this election.

  31. DBW says:

    If 13 or anybody else is interested, here is the link to the article on most educated cities that I forgot to include,
    https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/is-ottawa-canadas-smartest-city-capital-edges-toronto-calgary-in-university-educated-population

  32. 13 says:

    DBW thanks for the info. Im sure that is a fine list of cities with accurate %s of those getting higher education. To test Beans theory that a city boy ,girl or gender neutral is smarter than the same boy girl or gender neutral from Mayberry isnt as easy as a list.
    Many other thing would need to be factored in.
    Income levels
    Proximity to schools and universities
    Transportation options (John Deere tractors dont travel long distances very well)

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