BC Liberals will Have New Leader Within a Year

The final election results of the May 9 provincial election are in and Premier Christy Clark seems determined to stay in power: the Liberals having won 43 seats … ahead of the NDP with 41 and the Greens with 3.

Whether or not the Greens follow my analysis of what’s BEST for their party in long-term … and support the Liberals in a minority government, thereby denying power for the NDP …  their MAIN competition as the real alternative for the “progressive” movement …. one thing IS certain: Christy Clark will be GONE as Liberal leader before next Spring.

And maybe even earlier.

As NDP Leader John Horgan aptly noted after the final voting results were announced, “60 per cent of British Columbians voted for a new government and they haven’t got one yet.”

The Christy Clark brand is beyond its “Best Before May 9” date … and Liberal strategists know that.

Photo ops and hard hat moments were no longer working … and Clark’s image was not well served after the results were announced Wednesday evening when Horgan and Weaver made themselves immediately available to make statements and answer questions …and Clark only issued a printed press statement.

The manoeuvering, of course,  is not over …  in fact, it will be stepped up in the next week, until Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver announces whether his party will support a Liberal or NDP minority government … and on what terms.

So the Greens CAN be bought.  Just a matter of determining whether it’s the NDP or the Liberals that are willing to pay more.

It will be a really interesting Summer and Fall for BC political junkies … but have to admit, I do worry about what it will all mean for the BC economy and investments until it all settles down.

Harv Oberfeld

(Reminder: You can get FREE First Alerts of all new postings on this BC blog by following @harveyoberfeld on Twitter. No spam..just First Alerts. And for those interested, you can listen to an interview I did on HoweStreet.com digital radio here: http://www.howestreet.com/2017/05/26/how-long-will-christy-clark-be-bc-premier/  .)

 

This entry was posted in British Columbia. Bookmark the permalink.

35 Responses to BC Liberals will Have New Leader Within a Year

  1. DBW says:

    Trudeau Sr resigned as leader after losing to Joe Clark’s minority government in 1979 only to be whisked back in a year later when the government fell.

    What will be Christy Clark’s legacy?

  2. Gene The Bean says:

    Here is the deal – Christy is and always has been a fake. Everyone knows it – even the fakes that have voted for her. She is nothing more than a walking, talking, talking some more photo op. Just like a fake façade on a building, painted up on the outside, empty on the inside, just like the people that vote for her.

    Many voters “fell” for it. Many of those same voters will again “fall” for it when they change leaders.

    It’ll be interesting where Weaver firmly plants his foot.

    I sure know where I’d like to plant mine – firmly in the arses of people who think it is perfectly fine that we continue to ignore the disadvantaged, the poor, the elderly, the challenged and children in care so we can prop up billionaires and big business.

    I used to laugh at people who say they’d rather hang out with their dogs than people – I totally get that now.

    Woof.

  3. harry lawson says:

    Harvey

    This could go several ways ,

    Ms Clark is leader a snap election happens the NDPwins.or Ms Clark resigns and they bring in a star candidate from the outside. someone without previous BC Liberal baggage such as Dianne Watts the the NDP and Greens would both be in trouble

    the key is to get those who either abstained or left the liberal fold back .

  4. Diverdarren says:

    Harvey, I’m not sure that Christy is finished as leader.

    Of course, that depends on how the negotiations with the Green party play out.

    If an agreement by the Greens to prop up the Liberal government can be reached I just don’t see why liberal strategists will see how a contest for the leadership in the public eye would help the Liberal brand during what will be a tumultuous time for politicians. But a great time for political watchers. lol

    If she can form a minority government with the pledged support of the Greens it would show the public her willingness to compromise and listen to the will of the people.

    However, all bets our off about the Liberal’s will want C.C. if an election is called in 18 months.

    (Response: I think she will come under a lot of pressure behind the scenes to step down …unless a snap election occurs within the next 3 or 4 months. Her ability to raise political passion is gone; her credibility with too many voters is low; and I’m sure there are others … even within her own caucus …who believe a new face and new appeal will serve the party better. h.o)

  5. e.a.f. says:

    New leader, oh the speculation will be such fun, for awhile, until she makes it very clear she isn’t going anywhere until she is taken care of in the future.

    So they bring back Gord, he of the $400K contracts to his numbered company with Judy in tow. sheep keeping or premier, sheep keeping or premier. oh whats the difference.

    then there is el gordo, been there done that, not welcome in B.C.

    John Furlong, na, he still has that little mess trailing behind him which never was “resolved”.

    Green Weaver, he sees the light. yes the environment can live with corporations and he’s going to prove it. At last I’m a star and can get a better suit.

    For what Green Weaver and the little leaves want from Christy she is better to swallow her pride, march across the commons, and ask Horgan what does he want in the next budget so the NDP won’t vote it down. The NDP might be easier to do business with than Green Weaver. Weaver hasn’t caught on yet this is the business of government not his ego show. Although given who the Greens hired we know enough about Green Weaver to never trust him. He joins the B.C. Lieberals, he has set the party back a couple of decades.

    Of course there will be the usual suspects within the caucus who will want to be leader. Perhaps DeJong will ever get a better pair of glasses. Tod Stone wants the job and he’s been campaigning for years and raise speed limits again.

    Oh what the hell just hand over the keys to whatever corporation is getting the most money out of the province and let them have at it.

    I’d have to agree with you, Harvey. New leader on order. Christy is a great cheer leader but she never learnt how to be part of a team and that is what the upcoming session will need. She doesn’t have the qualities or the brains. if they find her a job early expect them to appoint Rich Coleman as interium leader, he’s been doing all the work any how.

    (Response: This is why I enjoy watching politics so much: the best reality show …not only on tv, but on radio and in the newspapers simultaneously. And what other reality show can be regarded as a drama, a comedy, and even sometimes a tragedy …all at one time. h.o)

  6. Gordie says:

    Consider this:

    If you follow Bob Mackin’s blog, you might get the feeling, as I do, that the Liberal party’s war chest is pretty full, if not overflowing, and getting fuller every day.

    The Liberals might be pretty happy with a quick election because they can greatly outspend the NDP and the Greens, and basically buy their majority back, especially if they can put the blame for a quick election on the NDP and/or Greens. “See, we told you, minority governments don’t work and this is what you get with proportional representation, like the NDP and Greens want. Vote for us and we’ll give you stability (and jobs, jobs, jobs).”

    Even if the current government goes to the full term, the Liberals will still be able greatly outspend the NDP and Greens. This will be more acute if there are caps put on political donations. Of course, once back in, the Liberals would remove any caps and go back to FPTP.

  7. Gary T. says:

    @harry lawson #3. Dianne Watts has her own baggage from Surrey, where she proved that she loved developers, the common folk, not so much. She is just Clark, only with an education.

  8. nonconfidencevote says:

    @#7 Gary T
    “She is just Clark, only with an education….”
    *******

    Well, that would cover about 95% of the voting population.

    Harvey.
    Total agreement. She’s lost it with the voters.
    I expect Christy Clark to be pulling out all the financial stops to keep her job both as Premier and as Liberal leader.
    I also expect that Horgan wants the Premiership so bad that he’s offering an obscene amount of perks to get it.
    What ever Weaver wants….Weaver gets.
    Personally, I’d offer him and his collegues a fair deal …nothing ridiculous because we all know these backroom deals are only a stop gap until a new election
    The only interesting thing will be …the dirt that comes out during the next election in 18 months
    My prediction for Clark? Toast before Christmas 2017 if Horgan becomes Preem. Or toast before Christmas 2018 if there is a Leadership review….and then a quiet directorship with one (or several)of the companies she’s awarded govt contracts…….
    Cry not for Christy

  9. Eldon says:

    I think Clark will have to be dragged out of the Premier’s office. It’s hard to imagine her leaving voluntarily.

    I have pondered what her fate will be after her tenure. Will she return to NW? Join the private sector like Glenn Clark?

  10. Marge says:

    I hope Clark loses her job as Liberal leader. She’s way past her expiry date and was only a pretty face for the back boys – kind of like Trudeau the younger we have as PM. I too am looking forward to what will be revealed if Horgan becomes Premier. It’s going to be fun… unless the MSM keeps it all hidden, which also wouldn’t surprise me either.

  11. Island Lookout says:

    PREMIER WEAVER?

    Sure, folks, why not?

    Weaver has a long and distinguished academic career that includes degrees in mathematics and physics, never mind the later environmental stuff.

    So, if he knows how to crunch numbers (maths), understands why things go bump in the night (physics), why there are clouds, then can a premiership be far behind?

    Think about:

    This guy has just spent four years on a bench at the legislature watching numbers being crunched, seeing forces of gravity being partially counteracted, feeling a certain amount of hot-air, has identified the NDP jellyfish, backstabbers, and reptiles, and at the end of that, what?

    Leader of a three-person caucus is what.

    As he “negotiates” with Clark and Horgan, he must wonder who is the weakest and, therefore, would be more subject to his huge influence?

    I think Horgan wins that one. Why?
    With his years as a lecturer, Weaver must also know how to suss out weakness in others. He also saw that first-hand in the House.

    Horgan seems to have little idea how to lead, because he doesn’t have enough time in the saddle, or party heft.

    With so much political correctness coursing through that pathetic party how much clout does he REALLY have? Alongside a guy with Weaver’s intellectual gravitas, Horgan looks weak.

    So, how could Weaver become the next premier?

    That’s easy and it would take the NDP to pave the way for him.

    Such could happen if the unstable NDP inner sanctum became unhappy if Horgan caved in too much to Weaver’s demands.

    Once the NDP attains government there would follow a whispering campaign, then the knives would come out, followed by a coup (remember Mike Harcourt/Glen Clark?), and Weaver emerges from the coalition rubble as premier.

    Simple.

    Christy, BTW, slides into an easy retirement and the Liberals rebuild for the next election providing there is no preferential balloting.

  12. samantha says:

    gene the bean – what you said and one more thing. Mr. Rod MacIsaac, the health worker she hounded under false pretenses until he took his own life and clark refusing to apologize to his sister. I thought that this egregious behaviour would be the tipping point to boot her rear out the door. guess people that voted for her showed their true colours at the ballot box in ignoring this plus all the children that died in the ministry of death. want.her.gone!

  13. D. M. Johnston says:

    Two points, the last one first.

    If Weaver cozy’s up to the Liberals, the Greens are toast in the next election. From what I have heard, the two other Greens have divergent political views and if Weaver sidles up to Clark, the other two will go there own way.

    Adios Green Party.

    Clark will be gone because a lot of “Fat Cats” who have donated big bucks to the Liberals, want a return on their investment and if Clark can’t do it, I believe Kevin Falcon will, as he has already used a shiv on the back of Clark.

    Both campaigns by Clark and Horgan were lack lustre, probably because there is little money to bribe taxpayers, now with the provincial debt, including contractual obligations has now past $170 billion.

    The NDP backroom boys tied hard to hobble Horgan and Clark, was just Clark, lacking common decency.

    The Liberals do have a lot of money to play with, but there are a lot of ifs….

    If the current RCMP investigations comes up with anything…..

    If Weaver joins the NDP in a coalition…

    If someone pulls off a classic “night of the long knives” on Clark…….

    ……. If Clark is allowed to call a quick election, by the Lieutenant Governor.

    Even the Port Authority is reading the tea leaves adn now reported that they do not need to dredge the Fraser to allow larger colliers and tankers, thus no need for the $12 billion Massey tunnel replacement bridge and if we hear the same sort of thing for Site C, then it will herald a Clarkless future for BC.

    (Response: Now wouldn’t that be intriguing: if Weaver aligned with the Libs …and the other two Greens did not! Back to the polls! But I am confident Weaver will know exactly how that cookie will crumble before he makes his decision/announcement: that kind of threat could indeed help him go to the NDP. But as I say, that I believe although would help the NDP tremendously … give them a chance to prove to BC they can govern well and solidify themselves as THE alternative to the Libs, … it would weaken the Greens’ attempts made over the decades to convince “progressives” they ARE different from and more worthy as an alternative. h.o)

  14. Tim says:

    I agree with your synopsis Harvey, those who paid the big bucks for results were let down by Clark and they will not have this happen again. Clark is, and always was, an empty suit, blustering with personal attacks and cliches, but zero intellect or ability to lead. No amount of photo ops, hard hats or repeating jobs ad nauseum could disguise that fact. One thing is for sure, Jimmy Pattison would not recruit Clark in his business if she was the last candidate standing.

    (Response: Not sure about Pattison: he does have a charitable side …hired Glenn Clark after his ignominious exit from politics. So extending a hand to Christy may not require much of a stretch h.o)

  15. Rocker Rich says:

    Where does Christy go? Based on the smiling photo ops with Justin–with him beaming back–there’s undoubtedly a Senate seat with her name on it. Could come this summer or next, whatever works best for her son’s school schedule.

    As much as she’s merrily presided over a conservative coalition freakishly called the he BC Liberals, our Ms C has long family roots with the real Grits in Ottawa.

    Whatever happens, there’ll be no need for any tag days to help her out.

    As for the faux Libs in Victoria, the time might be right to anoint a new leader while also changing the party name. Over the years, haven’t they quietly registered names such as Dogwood Party and British Columbia Party.

    Finally, if Dianne Watts opts to scurry back to contest the leadership, it might signal her belief that–despite a new leader–the federal Conservatives won’t regain power anytime soon.

    (Response: In the battle zones of politics, I don’t think the powers and strategists behind the Liberals will worry about where Clark goes. It’s ALL about winning …and power. h.o)

  16. Rocker Rich says:

    One additional factor for Christy entering the Senate–her ex-hubby Mark Marissen likely earns good coin consulting/advising Liberal governments in Ottawa and Queen’s Park. Having his son in the same city would make visitations a lot easier. As divorces go, wasn’t Mark and Christy’s fairly amicable?

  17. Island Lookout says:

    REMEMBERING AMAZING GRACE

    We all can’t live forever, but Grace McCarthy sure gave it a good try.

    Amazing Grace McCarthy passed away in Vancouver this week, and left behind a magnificent political legacy for all British Columbians.

    I first met her in the early 1970s when I toiled as a reporter in Greater Vancouver.

    Given my leftie upbringing, and mistaken philosophy then, I viewed her as the political “enemy.”

    I remember her campaigning in the 1972 provincial election with WAC Bennett. He really depended on her, but it came to naught.

    The giant Socred machine was brought tumbling down by a weird collection of disparate NDP types who laboured under the unsure leadership of Dave Barrett, then the youngest premier in Canada.

    Grace did not flinch for a moment after that sad Socred outcome. She got back to work and formed a new Socred coalition under the politically-untried son of WAC, Bill Bennett.

    She saw in him a genuine leader and, as usual, the brilliant Grace was entirely correct.

    Prior to his election in 1975 she trained Bennett in the art of politics to the point where a despondent business community was emboldened, then opened up its wallets and helped to punt the feckless socialists.

    In the 1980s, and back at the BC legislature working as a reporter, I’d see Grace, then a cabinet minister, sitting in the House, during Question Period and various debates, signing greeting cards and writing messages to constituents and other citizens, and having them promptly mailed out that day.

    She was a lion during debates. The NDP feared her with good reason. Do not cross Grace!

    Grace also touched our family in a good way. It was during the latter part of the Barrett regime that my mother contracted, for a second time, cancer.

    Mum was a returning officer in her riding, hired by the NDP. Following the NDP’s loss, Grace sent her a get well card and a kindly message.

    In the years that followed I interviewed Grace mainy times and we had great chats.

    That was Grace.

    Amazing indeed, for SuperNatural British Columbia and the rest of us.

  18. e.a.f. says:

    speaking of war chests, another blog has a spot up reflecting four, $25K cheques from Chressey development to the B.C. Lieberals since the election>

    Having the Greens support the NDP to attain office, is not a good move for the NDP. How can one really trust Green Weaver? Now who was it he hired to “negotiate” his deal? Some old guy in tight jeans with a history on the right wasn’t it. Says it all.

    Weaver’s “demands” are about power and access to money. Not the environment. It ranked 4th on his list and its way down the list, in my opinion. The other 2 Greens might be better off going their own way to ensure their longevity.

    Jim Pattison has hired 2 former NDP premiers and not because he was charitable. He hired them because they would make money for him and they did and have. Pattison is NOT hampered by ideology when it comes to his business. He wants talent and he goes for it.
    Pattison had recognized Glen Clark’s potential years before while he was still running for the riding. Such was his faith in Glen Clark he was the only corporation who would hire Glen Clark before the trial.
    . Unfortunately Christy Clark doesn’t have the same skill set. Pattison doesn’t need a new cheer leader. He handles that job himself and has done it very well for as far back as I can remember.
    Come to think of it, Pattison hasn’t hired a former Socred/B.C. Lieberal premier. THEY DO say Pattison is good at scoping out talent.

    Come to think of it Glen Clark got the last laugh. He is the President of the Pattison Group. Now who would have thought an NDP premier would go on to that position?

    The former B.C. Lieberal premiers just went to the public trough, el gordo, Gordon Wilson,

    It is doubtful Trudeau would appoint Christy Clark to the Senate. remember he is trying to give that place a better image and she simply isn’t in the same league as the last set of appointees. The B.C. Lieberals never were true Liberals. Her ex may work for the Liberals but that is a long way to getting her a position as a senator. It would be just too much of a gamble. her skill set is desperately lacking. Cheer leaders, are a dime a dozen and most have more skills than she does.

    Don’t expect Watts to come back to lead the B.C. Lieberals. She hasn’t done much of anything since she went to Ottawa. while she was the surrey mayor, she was a big fish in a small pond. In Ottawa she is really no one, just another seat on a bench. If she tried to come back to Surrey. Well Surrey has moved on and the demographics have changed since her time. Then of course there is all the baggage that would be unpacked if she ran for the leadership and I’m sure some of the B.C Lieberal boys would be ever so happy to help her unpack ever contract, every event, every word, etc. No Watts will stay with her current job for at least as long as it takes to get her federal pension.

  19. Hawgwash says:

    Brad Bennet?

  20. Keith E. says:

    # 16-17 Rocker Rich. cristy in the senate.

    Not sure that’s possible now, she would have to go through a public application process, maybe an ambassador somewhere in the traditional manner of ex B.C. premiers.

    Can’t add much to a great subject and responses.

    Here’s a good read from Friday May 26 Times Colonist.

    http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/shape-of-government-still-unclear-throne-speech-key-1.20212067

  21. Gene The Bean says:

    Island Lookout #18

    Your recollections of Ms. McCarthy are very nice but I am sure they differ from many others remembrances. I am glad you and no doubt others have those fond memories and as with any civil servant, even the unionized ones, Ms McCarthy should be congratulated on and for, her service.

    Now, to get back on topic, I’m sure she did very good work for those west of Main Street and looked after the big wigs and corporations that funded her party and actually ran the government. Sound familiar anyone?

    The Socreds were wiped out due to their outright arrogance, disrespect of the majority of BCers, vote buying and their purposeful “heel on the throat” of the poor and disadvantaged. Again, sound familiar anyone?

    The difference to 1972 and the last two elections is that back then, most people actually cared about more than just themselves and had something …. wait for it … called morals. Once the Socreds crossed the line, the people said NO MORE. They even cared about the future for their kids…. I KNOW … amazing huh?

    Christy and the LIEberals (Socreds v.2.1) should have also been punted but these days more people have that conservative ethic of “I want it all, I want it now and screw you and anyone else.”

    Christy will be gone. Harvey has already picked up on the subtle signs. Will it matter, probably not.

    If the NDP and the Greens can actually form a government and prove that a progressive agenda is better for everything and everyone, even selfish people, there may be a chance.

    Maybe.

    Looking around …. doubt it …. 🙁

  22. Eldon says:

    Great blog comments today. Great to read from some new posters!

  23. e.a.f. says:

    read the editorial but really its not much more than most people have posted on any number of blogs.

    What actually is the date by which Christy Clark must call the Leg. back to session? If its some time down the road, she’s still the premier and she can still play her games. nothing to stop her. if nothing else things might have to be cleaned up……….

    As to Brad Bennett, ya right as if some one is going to do all the work and turn the party over to him. Anyhow Christy gave him the gift of a life time, over at B.C. Hydro. If any one things some of the B.C. Lieberals in cabinet are going to hand over the party to him, think again. the egos are too big.

  24. gbvic says:

    Reply to Hawgwash, my thought exactly. Brad Bennett 3rd generation potential premier has a ring to it. C. Clark can then ride on his campaign bus.

  25. G. Barry Stewart says:

    e.a.f. at 24. This is in no way a defence or commendation of Brad Bennett — but his “gift of a lifetime” at BC Hydro is only $30K a year, to chair the board meetings… nothing as lucrative as when Christy’s good pal, Jessica McDonald got the Hydro CEO position.

    Jess is making roughly double Christy’s pay and running the biz deep into debt, at our expense.

  26. nonconfidencevote says:

    @#20 Hawgwash
    Brad Bennet?
    ++++++

    Nah I’m thinking Baby Trudeau is ruining “legacy” politicians for the voting public… and Bennet hasn’t “earned his spurs” by slogging it out for a few years in the Legislature. He’d step on too many toes on the way up.

    I’ve said it before I’ll say it again.
    Todd Stone.
    He’s photogenic, does well in pressers, hasnt really been too offensive during the ever boring and safe Highways Ministry posting…no real corruption flies buzzing around him…..

    But then again, voters EVERYWHERE are fed up with the status quo of carreer politicians and rich people being shoved, blinking into the political leadership role.
    Hence Emmuelle Macron of France going from a virtual unknown with a new political party 13 months ago to ……President of France.

  27. r says:

    Greens maybe also if BCLib friendly coalition

    http://142.34.128.33/index.php//recall-initiative/recall/

  28. e.a.f. says:

    its not the money, its the power, information, contacts.

    back in the day, a time when some of us were young and Harvey hadn’t picked up a microphone yet, there was a premier WAC Bennett who had a highways minister Flying Phil. The joke used to be you knew where the new highways were going, that was where Flying Phil bought land or his friends or his company. now I was only a child, and yes I was once a child, but I recall adults talking about it. so nothing much changes in this province and so being the CEO of B.C. Hydro is a gift and hey $30K is still $3oK. its more than any one on disability makes or min. wage working 4o hrs a week. I’m sure any one who posts on this blog wouldn’t mind an additional $30K a year. Some might even take on being CEIO of B.C. Hydro and do a better job than old Brad there.

    Macron, he of the great hand shake. Saw the pictures of Trump trying to put the “squeeze” on him and Macron apparently has quite the hand shake also. The Express announced Trump let go first.

    (Response: Don’t want to date myself, but I have a wonderful picture of me with WAC in the Legislative Press Gallery when I was covering there for the Vancouver Sun and The Express union strike newspaper, before moving to the BCTV desk. h.o)

  29. Scotty on Denman says:

    What of Christy? She availed political opportunities and attributed her successes to her high-volume partisan rhetoric instead of luck.

    She astutely and obsequiously read the bitterness of her leader’s 1996 election loss (Gordo’s BC Liberals, usurped from Gordon Wilson’s real Liberals and turned sharply right, actually won the popular vote), channeling his hateful resentment as a sort of BC version of the federal Liberals’ (no relation) “Rat Pack,” with persistent, brash heckling and chauvinistic rhetoric in the Assembly; like Kevin Falcon who spearheaded the “Total Recall” citizens’ initiative, Christy impressed Gordo with her near-orgasmic relish of extreme, loud partisanship. It has remained her calling card.

    Christy was an aggressive campaigner during her first incumbency—crude and rude to a fault, amusingly so—but she was hardly the architect of the NDP’s near-death defeat: nevertheless she was rewarded with the education portfolio—she was just lucky there was no real opposition in the Assembly, the NDP having been reduced to two seats and losing official party status. That should have made her job easier, yet she managed to let her partisanship and growing hubris go to her head by failing to recognize political realities. Proof: tearing up a negotiated teachers’ labour contract charred her debut in the policy kitchen, and when the flames got too hot, she resigned from politics, probably not anticipating the problems her rash act would eventually cause her years later.

    Her disappointing foray into municipal politics was assuaged by an ego-inflating stint as talk-radio host, and, when Gordo was forced to resign in disgrace after the HST scandal, she managed to win the party leadership, probably deluding herself that the victory was due to her likability instead of the circumstantial opprobrium the Campellites had earned for the party in her absence. (George Abbott was a far superior candidate but, as a Cambellite, he was undeservingly tainted by association.)

    She got lucky again when the NDP MLAs decided to attack themselves instead of their hapless, twisting rivals during Gordo’s dying days in office. And even though now-premier Christy could not get voters to accept the HST which had been forced to a referendum by an citizens’ initiative, she was blessed with a by-election win in Gordo’s old riding—a pretty safe seat, or so it was thought at the time.

    The BC Liberal caucus committed a tell when Christy’s leadership win was announced: it was a palpable moment of stunned silence before a polite but less-than-ebullient applause slowly developed. Over the next two years nobody seemed to be warning her off of frequent missteps, and as the election approached, fully half of the Campbellite caucus abandoned ship in anticipation of a drubbing. Such was the lack of confidence in the policy-light premier, it was said a faction called “801” (which was supposed to fire her at one minute after eight
    after the expected election loss) impatiently waited to get rid of her.

    But she got lucky again as the NDP’s troubles only sent more good fortune her way when its new leader ran a foolish “positive politics” campaign in a fit complacency inspired by a supposed 20-point lead in the polls going into the campaign. But, despite her rivals virtually giving the BC Liberals the election, she managed to lose her own, supposedly safe seat.

    It would have been impolitic to fire her, especially when she herself doubtlessly attributed the party’s come-from-behind upset to her incessant LNG whoppers instead of the default supplied, in fact, by the NDP. The compromise was to keep her on by parachuting her into the dog-bone safest seat in the province, but not let her into the policy kitchen, that is, to retain her more as a cheerleader than a premier. If that rankled her, she didn’t let it tarnish her fixed, shit-eating-hound smile, nor dampen her smirking, ultra-partisan rhetoric which she never reserved for actual campaigns, but affected during a whole term of nothing but photo-ops. Voters had good cause to wonder if she actually knew what the hell was going on in the backrooms of BC Liberal cronydom. We simply got used to Christy looking like she really loved the glorified PR position the real operators allowed her. She twirled the baton and pranced like a majorette.

    Thus her first crack at getting re-elected as leader featured two important things: her first mandate (of her own) had been a huge disappointment, and the NDP had elected another leader who’d aggressively demonstrated he wasn’t beholden to insufferable pacifist eggheads in his own party. As polls indicated her party was falling behind, she continued to do what she always did best and smiled through the worry-lines.

    The result wasn’t surprising. It’s not as if the shine has come off of Christy because her popularity was luke warm to begin with, and conditional at that. Even her party wasn’t enamoured with her policy lightness or tendency to bubble over rhetorically and potentially misspeak. Good at the one-note messaging like her preposterous LNG whoppers of the previous election, she has been notably left out of negotiations now going on behind closed doors to determine which party will govern and which will support. That says a lot about her position within her own party. All we cab do is speculate about what scenarios would allow her to stay on, and for how long.

    I should think that if the BC Liberals ever lose the capacity to block forensic investigation into how they’ve dys-managed the public books, they’d be forced to look at her in a different light than if she could govern in minority. Considering the public desire to rid the worst government we’ve ever had, it’s hard to imagine a Christy-led minority being able to hang on. Even harder to imagine a BC Liberal minority where she resigns the premiership, stays on to preserve the seat superiority but have another BC Liberal act as premier interim to a leadership convention. Seems to me that’d be enough for the LG to call upon the other two parties to form government.

    And then it’d certainly be all over for the BC Liberals.

    But I’m pretty sure Christy never counts herself out—alls she needs is another lucky break.

    (Response: Interesting treatise. But when you refer to “the public desire to rid the worst government we’ve ever had” I will point out that she personally won her seat AGAIN and the Liberals did receive more than 796,600 votes … that’s more than either the NDP OR the Greens …so clearly not all British Columbians would agree with your assessment. But I really enjoyed reading your assessment. h.o)

  30. Gene The Bean says:

    #30
    Standing O.
    Far too many great comments and pokes to just pick a few for comment.
    Should be required reading!

  31. 13 says:

    Thank you Harvey for pointing out the obvious. When Horgan (etal) spew the line that 60% of voters for change he is not being accurate. 80% voted for the status quo . 20 % voted for neither the NDP or the BC Libs.

  32. nonconfidencevote says:

    @#30 Scotty on Denman

    Excellent summation.
    Should be posted in the Editorial section of the Province and the Sun OR ( if the editors lack the testicular fortitude) as a full page, paid advertisment in both newspapers disguised as News in the BC Liberal Govt, taxpayer funded vein of political self congratulation….

  33. e.a.f. says:

    Scotty on Denman, a great piece of writing. One of the best I’ve seen on the history of the B.C. Lieberals. Required reading.

  34. SB says:

    Well with todays headline my bet is she is done in less than 6 months if that long.
    I am not surprised living close to and knowing many on Cowichan i know the support there pushed to an NDP alignment now lets see what they can do

Comments are closed.