Brexit Chaos: Blame Minority Government

I may have been wrong.  Readers of this blog will know I have on occasion sung the praises of minority governments as a way of preventing/mitigating the dangers of one party … or one leader … having dictatorial powers under majority rule.

Theoretically, that still holds true. However, add human dynamics to the mix … pride, greed, selfishness, blind ideology and a willingness to blackmail to extort concessions … and the reality can fall well short of the benefits.

Take Britain as an example.

The UK is in turmoil politically … and while much is being discussed, debated, dissected and devoured politically … what is NOT getting enough attention is the terrible ECONOMIC costs/impact Brexit has already had and is still having on Britain’s economy.

The nation’s Gross Domestic Product has DROPPED 2.4% since the LEAVE vote topped the referendum in 2016.   The Bank of England’s CEO (Canadian) Mark Carney has estimated the loss to Britain’s economy so far at 40 Billion Pounds ($70 Billion Cad).

The Institute for Fiscal Studies calculated the net COST of being IN the European Union hit Britain for 8 Billion Pounds ($14 Billion Cad) over five years. That’s 0.4% of the national income.

However, it says the net LOSS to the British economy, in reduced investment and economic growth, for being OUT will top 70 Billion Pounds ($120 Billion Cad) over five years.

Of course, nations do not …and need not …always operate based solely on a fiscal basis.

Many Brits … and having visited the country many times, I get it … felt they were losing control of their society, their culture, their borders, their nation … being “governed”, even dictated to,  by Europeans based in Brussels.

So the people spoke … and more voted to LEAVE than to remain.

And now …let’s keep it real … THEIR WILL IS BEING DENIED … by the very politicians they elected to carry out their will.


Because too many politicians in Britain (England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland) OPPOSE the people’s decision,  think THEY know better than their voters, and are doing anything and everything to avoid carrying out the referendum’s result.

How do they get away with it?

Because Britain is governed by …. not just a minority government …. but among the worst kind of minority government formulations I warned about when British Columbians were considering/debating our own referendum on proportional representation.

You can read what I wrote about that here:

Take a look at the similarities now paralysing Britain  …

There are 650 seats in the British House of Commons; majority government starts at 326.  

The Conservatives fell short, with 314; Labour hold 245; Scottish National Party 35; Liberal Democrats 11; Change UK 11; Democratic Unionists (Northern Ireland) 10; Sinn Fein 7; Plaid Cymru 4; Greens 1; and Independents 10.

And without a majority, there could be no Whip system to ensure government-proposed legislation passed.

A true recipe and formula for CHAOS … based on political, regional, ethnic even racial/religious divisions, beliefs, selfish interest and goals.

That’s why not only did Prime Minister Theresa May’s negotiated agreement not pass; neither did cold Brexit; nor a call to stay; nor a new customs union; nor another referendum …. none of eight different proposals could be agreed upon.

Britain is in turmoil; the impact on jobs and trade could bring the country to its knees … with no deal … within the next five years.

And I have no doubt that with NO deal … the EU will crack down HARD on Brits travelling across the Channel … making them go through all those questions the rest of us face (Passport? Nature of your visit? How long will you be here? How much money do you have? Where will you be staying?). Not fun for the millions of people who right now just breeze right through in a special “EU” lane … with no questions!

And just imagine the paperwork/tariffs/increased time and costs etc. commercial traffic going each way will face.

And the politicians know that … so barring a new election call … something MUST give.


But the lesson of such a terrible failed minority government situation should make British Columbians breathe a sigh of relief that WE avoided the very multi-party scenario I warned against just months ago.

Harv Oberfeld

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42 Responses to Brexit Chaos: Blame Minority Government

  1. The Scribe says:

    Hi Harvey,

    First off, I am positive that you meant THERESA not ELIZABETH May! Although the green voters will have palpitations seeing the words Prime Minister in front of their leader’s name!

    I have to disagree with your premise that it is the minority government that has stalled the passing of the Brexit legislation as there have been many government members voting against Ms. May’s oft-tabled legislation.

    I don’t believe these rogue Tories would have voted for the legislation even if the government were in a majority position. Also, the Tories are in charge thanks to the DUP which has been consistently voting against the Tory legislation.

    I have my fingers crossed that instead of another vote in the House of Commons, that there is another vote by the public – I expect that REMAIN would win in a landslide now that the apathetic and protest voters have got a small glimpse of what their future might be!

    (Response: Oops! Thanks. Corrected. 🙂 If there was a majority government, the Tories would of course have more seats and I believe the Whip system would have kept more in line. I’m not a fan of referenda … BUT if they have one and the question and vote are both clear, the will of the people should be followed. Or don’t out the issue before them in the first place. h.o)

  2. DBW says:

    I was going to comment further on the immigration topic but hey … new one.

    First that is some weird logic. Good thing we voted down proportional representation because look how screwed up the UK is under FPTP.

    The UK is screwed up because of the Brexit vote, not because of the make up of the government. May doesn’t even have the full support of her own party.

    As far as I can tell, what the UK has to do is have another referendum now that the country can actually see the ramifications of a leaving.

    The referendum questions should be something lke

    1. Are you in favour of the UK leaving the EU?

    2. If the majority to question 1 is positive, do you want May’s negotiated deal or no deal at all?

    Given the almost three years, I am not so sure the people still want to leave and if they do, the options should be narrowed to 2.

  3. Gene The Bean says:

    We didn’t agree on the whole FPTP discussion Harvey but as I have been following this BREXIT nonsense – and it is nonsense – I now can see what your main point was. Well played.

    I still believe we need to change how we elect people and this issue may just be cherry picking but the vast majority of the elected officials in the UK are definitely letting their people down.

    In my estimation of the 650 seats, probably around 150 of them are held by non-elites. What I mean by that is they are not people of influence, power and money.

    The other 500 are probably people of influence, power and money don’t give a rats petunia about anything else than their influence, power and money. If they send their country into the gutter and economically damage it for generations, they don’t care. They can just move to their summer home in France or maybe their vacation home in Antigua. The same can be said of the elites now running the Excited States of Trumpistan. They don’t care about the damage they are doing or about taking away poor peoples health care. The conservative mantra of “I have mine – screw you” is on display every day.

    The people did speak. The majority of voters (for all the wrong reasons) wanted out. If there was ever a shining example of what happens when you are a person under 30 and don’t vote, Brexit is it.

    Brexit has been a disaster. A complete and total failure of political leadership. There should be an election and all 650 members currently sitting should be banned from running.

    Want to ruin your country – just keep electing rich, privileged geezer elites.

    (Response: My own disappointment is that, for quite a long time, I had supported the minority government idea as a way of keeping governments more moderate and ensuring we do not have to tolerate total four year dictatorships under majority governments. But now I understand that only works with a moderate third or fourth party exercising restraint as well … not just using its smaller status to blackmail the larger party. That’s what I feared and warned against in our P.R. referendum, and the Brexit situation only shows how real and terrible that situation can be. h.o.)

  4. BMCQ says:

    I find I agree with much of your Analysis and Essay.

    Minority Governments do not and have not really worked anywhere, ask several EU Nations and others.

    PR and Minority Governments also cost the tax Payer much more as those Governments are saddled with Bloat, Waste, Trade Offs, Bureaucracy and Corruption.

    Sound Familiar?

    Brexit was/is about Control of Borders and Control of Immigration, nothing less.

    I would suggest that you se what the Voters think in most EU Nations now. We will soon see more Brexit type Referendums in other Countries.

    We are already witnessing “Push Back” from Voters in countries like Germany, Italy, Spain, and others.

    Of course you would never hear Media talk about this but if one was to take away both sides of the Brexit Vote Count in London, Birmingham, Leeds/Bradford, and Manchester the Brexit Leave Vote would be over 70%. What might that tell you?

    To those of you that want another Vote and then perhaps another how many do they have? Do they have enough until the Brexit Remain side win?

    Sort of like a Province like Quebec continually having “Do Overs” on Quebec Independence.

    What evidence do any of you “Do Over” Proponents have that Brexit would be Voted Down? Please clarify.

    Theresa May was and may still be a “Remainer” but I believe she has fought a good honest fight for the UK and I believe she deserves more respect from UK Parliament Members. Not saying she did a flawless job but I will always recognize her as a Patriot !

    The EU was always going to eventually fail and it still will fail, it is only a matter of time if they do not make major changes with Borders and Immigration Control.

    Thank God Thatcher kept them away from the Euro.

    The EU should have remained as a Trading Market like the European Common Market which worked and all Member Nations had control of heir Borders and Migration.

    The Europe UK Common Market would have worked just fine like the new USMCA Agreement eventually will for Mexico, the U.S. and Canada. The NAFTA did need a tweak, it was weighted against the U.S. .

    The EU needs the UK much more than the UK needs the EU.

    Watch for new Trade Deals to emerge between the UK, the U.S. and perhaps even a Tri Lateral Trade Deal between Canada, the UK, and the U.S. if Brexit takes place.

    The EU Leadership and Merkel may mumble on about Cracking Down on UK Trade, Travel, and Passports and they may even make idle threats but EU Leadership knows that once Brexit takes place other EU Nations will demand more control or threaten to leave.

    At that point we may see the major restructure and an overture to the UK to enter into a Trade Agreement with the EU Nations similar to what I described.

    Of course that is if the UK had not already cut a Deal with the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.

    There will also be a movement of Wealthy Industrials and Industry from the EU into the UK once Brexit gives the UK their Borders and Immigration Control back, especially if there are Trade Deals with the U.S., Canada, and perhaps even Mexico.

    Within a VERY few Years The EU will need to re organize and become a Free Trading Group only or it will implode.

    Citizens in all EU Nations want their Borders back and they want a say in Immigration/Migration and Refugees.

    EU Council President Tusk, EU Commission President Juncker, Merkel, Macron, and other EU Leaders are well aware that the coming EU Elections will see many of their Minions Defeated and they are well aware that they must make change and compromise and they must allow EU Nations more control of their own destiny before their House of cards comes down around them.

    Imagine all of those EU Leaders needing to make it through the Work Week without the extra Caviar and Champagne if a satisfactory deal cannot be concluded !

    Liberal Media in the EU, the UK, and North America will not make you aware of much of this but spend a few minutes doing research and you will se what I am pointing out.

    I am honestly not sure if the current situation will force a UK Election or not but I am cautiously of the opinion it will not. We shall see.

    One thing for sure if the UK go ahead with a Hard Brexit or a negotiated Brexit EU Leadership who will be fighting for re-election, , Merkel, Macron, and the rest are in serious trouble in that upcoming EU Election.

    I believe going forward we will see a major
    change in the EU.

    Bill Gates is by no means a Closed Border Person but he understands what Open Borders and no Control over Immigration/Migration can mean.

    Hopefully Leadership of the EU, the UK, and the rest will one day gather together and renegotiate a European UK Common Market as it once was and follow along with more control of Immigration and Borders within that structure.

    Yes Harvey you are correct we in B.C. were/are Blessed (if I can use that term) not to have Voted in PR.

    Wait again, perhaps we can have another PR Vote next year and every year going forward, that makes sense does it not?

    (Response: My remarks/warnings during the referendum pointed to the specific danger of having a splintered party system. Little did even I know then how much that has come into play in the UK’s Brexit debate … and how injurious that has been to the process and that nation. h.o.)

  5. e.a.f says:

    G.B. is headed , in my opinion, for a hard exit and the country will suffer but all the politicians are going to be happy, well perhaps not Theresa May. The politicians seem to be only interested in their turf and not in anything else. I’m not a Conservative fan, but Theresa May has done the best she can with what she has to work with. If anyone thinks they can do better have at it. Corbin strikes me as some one not interested in co operating with any one. The rest I don’t have much of an opinion on except perhaps the P.M. for Scotland.

    If they don’t work something out and the border goes up again in Ireland, that will not work out well either. these politicians need to get over themselves.

    (Response: The cost of a hard Brexit …without any trade or economic or border agreement … will really hurt UK businesses and jobs. An official British Parliamentary briefing report/study calculated 44% of UK exports in 2017 went to the EU; and that totaled 274 Billion Pounds in exported goods and services. Just think of how many workers’ jobs … and investors’ savings … will be impacted by the tariffs, procedures and reduced exports because of the actions, inactions and egos of their politicians unwilling to accept ANY of the nine possible solutions placed before them …. all of this chaos empowered by the current minority government situation. h.o.)

  6. Gilbert says:

    I believe Margaret Thatcher was absolutely right when she wanted the EU to be nothing more than a free trade area. It’s now a bureaucratic nightmare. Teresa May has stayed far too long. A person who wanted to remain in the EU should not be in charge of the negotiations to leave! It’s clear the EU wants to make leaving as difficult as possible to prevent other nations from doing the same.

    I understand the desire to have a deal in place, but in my opinion, no means no and we must respect the will of the voters. It’s time for the UK to leave the EU and sign free trade agreements with other countries.

  7. 13 says:

    If the people voted for brexit and they were mistaken then they should get a do over. What a load of crap. Its one thing to make vague campaign promises and not keep them. Its quite another to have a specific referendum and then ignore the voters wishes. The politicians that engage in that practice deserve a far worse fate than not being re elected.

  8. DBW says:

    Well I see you have had a Saul on the road to Damascus conversion and now think that minority governments are bad bad bad based on this ONE SINGLE incident.

    Personally, I don’t think the chaos is due to the electoral system at all. May doesn’t come close to having full support from her own party. If she hadn’t called the election in 2017 would the slight majority she had have been enough to move forward. It’s not just opposition parties that are gumming up the works.

    I recall you being very critical of the NDP being willing to support Quebec separation on a 50%+1 result. Some others on here were in agreement. You never did come up with a number but perhaps this referendum has too close a result to really conclude that this is the will of the people.

    Or maybe it is the wording of the original referendum.

    Renwick et al. (2016) in an opinion in The Telegraph June 14 protested: ‘A referendum result is democratically legitimate only if voters can make an informed decision. Yet the level of misinformation in the current campaign is so great that democratic legitimacy is called into question’.

    Did the voters – even the politicians – understand the ramifications of either result before presenting it to the people.

    I am also mystified in your support of the whip system. Aren’t you the guy who laments the lack of courage in BC politicians in their refusal to speak on behalf of BC when in Ottawa. Should Scottish and Northern Irish politicians just cave? Should politicians who represent people who want no deal vote for May’s deal?

    Brexit is a mess because it is messy. Wouldn’t matter if it were under a pro rep government, a minority government or a majority government.

    (Response: Certainly NOT one incident. Ihave mentioned the problems of minority governments many times regarding Italy and Israel etc. And perhaps you missed the criticism I had for the Greens blackmail of BC’s NDP? And how the NDP has given into it! As for the % that should “win” I think that first, the question must be specific, very clear and second the bar for anything to pass should depend on the issue … the bigger the stakes, the higher the bar. Sounds unfair? Actually, that’s exactly how condo associations in BC have worked successfully for decades: some issues require only 50% plus one … just by the board; others involving bylaw changes and major spending require 75% … of all owners. If that’s good enough for a condo ..surely it’s not unreasonable to expect and support similar differing bar levels for a country! h.o)

  9. BMCQ says:

    If one was to take London, Bradford/Leeds, Birmingham, and Manchester out of the Brexit equation “Brexit” would pass by 70%

    Please ask yourself this question.


  10. BMCQ says:

    Bean – 3

    Isn’t Hating People because they are perhaps older, or perhaps have saved and managed money well and are somewhat wealthy, and perhaps Pasty White Skin, and even Religious sort of like Despicable and Bigoted?

    Sort of like calling Stephen Harper “Herr Harper” or calling Andrew Scheer “Creepy”?

    Is that OK?

    Again, how would e.a.f feel if I called the Federal NDP Leader Creepy? That for sure would not sit too well would it. I am still waiting for an answer on that question e.a.f. .

    Cat got your Tongue?

    How do we spell Hypocrisy and Double Standard?

    YIKES !

    I find that rather odd because I have never judged anyone by their Age, Skin Colour, Ethnicity, Gender, Sexual Preference, Religion or not, Level of Education, Vocation, Station in Life, or whether they have nice Shoes.

    I judge them by their Character, Integrity, their Respect for others, Responsibility, and their ability to leave a clean law abiding life.

    Why would anyone want to single out any one or two groups?

    I have real concerns about anyone that lives their life like that.

    We live in a Democracy and whether it be Brexit, the Quebec Referendum, the Election of Obama, Trump, or any other Leader Elected in a Democracy we all deserve an equal Vote and we all deserve Democracy, whether we agree with it or not.

    I must admit that sometimes I wonder if some ill informed Voters that might not consider a vote for someone because that Candidate may be a little older heaven forbid a success and even a White Males should have a full vote but Democracy is Democracy.

    Why would you discriminate against anyone because of those few things you and I have mentioned?

    I have very grave concerns, any Candidate should be judged on what their Platform is and the Planks of that Platform happen to be.

    An oh yes, we would generally want Law Abiding Citizens would we not?

    To Judge anyone by Identity Politics is a Very Dangerous Game and in my opinion it Discredits anyone that thinks that way.

    Brexit is chaotic and yes it has a lot to do with a Minority Government but it also has a lot to do with Politicians not doing their job and not standing up for their Constituents.

    I can only hope that a Positive successful Brexit soon takes place and I then hope that a successful fair and balanced Trade Deal can be arranged between the UK, the EU, and perhaps even the UK and Canada and the U.S. .

    I caution EU Leadership that they make Brexit more difficult and impossible at their own Peril.

    Compromise is the Word of the Day !

    For all sides.

  11. Gene The Bean says:

    What I find “Despicable and Bigoted” (capitalized for your pleasure) is the racist dog whistle overtones of comment #9. Your white privilege continues to shine brightly. Congrats.

  12. DBW says:

    I like math and I am retired and have the time. I used the above sources to fact check BMCQ’s cryptic comment at #9.

    First Leeds did vote slightly to remain although Bradford did not nor did Birmingham. In total those three cities wouldn’t have moved the vote at all so I left them out.

    Both Manchester and London voted 60% in favour of remain. But if you leave their votes out of the equation the leave side would have ended up with about 53.5% of the vote. Somebody can check my work but when you are dealing with 33M votes it is difficult to move the needle.

    Besides, I am not even sure if the comment makes sense. It’s like saying if we leave out the votes in the Peace River, the Fraser Valley and the Central Interior, the NDP has a massive majority. Doesn’t everybody’s vote count.

    Back on topic. I am not going to argue with you about the pros and cons of minority governments. But I am not certain what you mean by the Greens blackmailing the NDP. Whatever it is might be viewed as compromise by others which is what we expect from minorities.

    Back further on topic. I agree with you when you say referendum questions must be clear. A simple do you want to leave the EU or remain did not take into account the complexities of leaving. Some people just wanted to flat out leave; the question did not talk about what kind of plan the leaving would require if in fact people wanted a plan.

    That’s why I don’t think this is an issue that you can blame on a minority government. They would have been struggling with this with the slight majority they had prior to the 2017 election.

    Besides, today Teresa May said she was going to sit down with the opposition leader to see a way forward. If that hadn’t been done already then that’s a failure of leadership. In a minority government that kind of conversation – looking for compromise – is essential. Why wasn’t this done before?

    (Response: Actually, I don’t blame Labour: it is the Opposition’s job to point out shortcomings, inadequacies and even test support for government actions by voting against proposed actions and legislation. Of course, there are exceptions to that rule … at times of war or national crisis when unity is required and the good of the nation takes precedence. And given the estimated damage a cold hard no deal Brexit would have on the UK … this may be the time. BUT look at the party figures/numbers: there is NO DOUBT that the real culprits preventing ANY kind of consensus and national agreement are the several small selfishly motivated regional and even ethnic minority parties … just as I warned could win just a few seats, result in much more disparate and frequent minority governments … and then be able to cripple and blackmail BC. Clearly, BC voters were very wise to reject the p.r. referendum! h.o.)

  13. e.a.f says:

    read an article about a small coastal British town, which was in decline, due to a lack of population. then people from Poland started immigrating there. town was revived. Brits. living in the town, didn’t care. Didn’t want Poles living in the town. Didn’t want to hear their language or see their food in the markets. In response to questions it became clear, they would rather have the town die than have people from Poland living there.

    if you go to London and other major cities in G.B. there are white Brits who don’t want people of colour living in their cities or they don’t want Muslims living in their cities. Many voted for Brexit. What some white people don’t understand is many people of colour who live in G.B, have families who have lived in G.B. for a couple of hundred years. What they really, really need to understand is that British citizens of colour will not be leaving the country.

    I’ve read articles by economists regarding the loss of money to the economy. When some of the Brexiters were interviewed, some just didn’t care. They simply do not understand how integrated the world economy is. In my opinion there is an agenda going on which may not have much to do with country, economy, etc. Its about breaking up the E.U. and G.B. is a great place to start. The question becomes, who benefits from Brexit. Who makes more money, what political, military goals are achieved. The amount of illegal money used during the Brexit campaign is of concern. One individual was fined several million pounds.

    Everyone seems to have their own agenda and not many are thinking about the good of the country As Ive commented previously, I’m not a fan of the Conservatives, but I believe Theresa May has done the best they can. The rest of those white politicians. need to understand, not all of Europe cares about you. The days of the empire are gone and European countries just don’t care about what you want.

  14. max avelli says:


    I know you don’t like PR Harvey, but you seem to have missed that the UK has a FPTP system but still has no fewer than 9 parties represented in Parliament, plus a dozen or so “Independents” (although most of them are recent refugees from the Conservative and Labour parties.

    So now that the UK has crossed the bridge with David Cameron’s horribly conceived referendum, and now that all the bridges crossed have been burned behind them (all 8 alternative proposals failed — although if the SNP representatives had bothered to vote, the customs union option could have passed), what, exactly, do you see as the way out of this self-created crisis?

    (Response: it’s not HOW you get to a situation of many smaller parties having blackmail party (P.R or FPTP etc) …it’s the plethora of tiny parties wielding HUGE power that is now being used to impose or refuse policies of the majority. I used to like minority govmts …when smaller entities tried to influence and moderate, but not stop the government’s major thrusts … but now blackmail , and that’s clearly a danger to democracy. h.o.)

  15. BMCQ says:

    DBW – 12

    Sorry, Nothing Cryptic meant by my comments.

    I was merely attempting to point out that in most Western Nations the majority of residents in those mostly larger cities are more Liberal and would tend to vote in greater numbers for “Remain” in the Brexit Vote.

    Nothing more nothing less.

    New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Vancouver, San Francisco and several more larger Western Cities have Progressive Liberal Mayors and Councils.

    I am speculating that those cities too would Vote “Remain” in the Brexit Vote.

    So we can include London, Manchester, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Cardiff, and a few others instead, that is fine with me.

    I was recently in the Middle East, the EU, and a few UK Cities including Canterbury where a colleague told me that Birmingham voted for Brexit, Rather than accept he was factual in his statement I should have had you “Fact Check” for me.

    I am not in favour of PM May getting to deeply involved with The Anti Semitic and Fascist Jeremy Corbyn, i simply consider Corbyn an Evil Individual that would sell his soul to The Devil and he cannot be trusted to do the best for the British People.

    I find it very distasteful that Minority Governments are forced to consider a ”Dance with the Devil” because of that Minority Government status.

    Somehow Democracies need to find a better answer.

  16. DBW says:

    Harvey, I am not trying to convince you that minority governments are superior to majority governments. There are valid reasons for preferring majority governments. What I am looking for is clarity on your assertion that the Brexit debacle is the fault of a minority government.

    Some facts: The first vote on May’s deal lost 432-202. The Conservatives have 313 members so 111 at least voted against.

    The second vote on May’s deal lost 391-242 with 75 Conservatives voting against. Fun fact take 75 away from 391 and add them to 242 and the vote becomes 317-316 in favour.

    The third vote lost 344-286 with 34 Conservatives voting against. Move those 34 Conservatives and the vote becomes 320-310 in favour.

    Tell me again how small parties are undermining Teresa May. It is my understanding that it is the Conservatives holding out for a no deal Brexit that is preventing the UK from moving forward. I don’t know what the other parties are looking for but I am guessing they are looking for a second referendum because that is what they see is best for the country and their constituents before moving forward.

    Democracy can be pretty ugly at times. This is one of those times. But it is not the fault of the system (minority or majority)in this case; it is the fault of the topic.

    And I am still unclear how the Greens blackmailed the NDP. Whatever happened they look more stable than the majorities in

  17. DBW says:

    Ottawa and Toronto.

    (darn computer)

  18. D. M. Johnston says:

    Actually, I blame the Brexit fiasco in the UK on the last vestiges of Empire.

    There are many in the UK who firmly believe the UK still has an Empire and that they are world leaders.

    Then add a dash of Trump style politicians, the toxic Nigel Farange and the seemingly incompetent Theresa May, plus a disengaged public and viola, blame it on the Euros and to hell with the future.

    would not blame it on a minority government, rather on utterly corrupted and completely uninterested major politcal parties in the UK (and in Canada too, so it seems).

    Look at the Labour leader, Corbyn, the grossly anti Semitic allotment gardener, living in a world long past.

    Do not blame it on a minority government, rather blame it on politcal hubris and ennui, where the elected politicians have long failed to represent the voter.

    As well, in the back of my mind is the question:” did Russia involve itself with the referendum by providing fake news, and fake web sites and fake commentators in social media?

    (Response: I understand your points and criticisms of the attitudes and views etc of Corbyn and other British pols … but attitudes and views … even radical ones … can be suppressed in majority government or even strong Opposition party situations: as Stephen Harper, Andrew Scheer and several recent NDP leaders can testify. But what is happening now is no longer based on old external empires, but modern internal political divisions … although perhaps with a tinge of regional, ethnic and cultural divisions and selfishness rattling in the background, to be sure! h.o)

  19. BMCQ says:

    DBW – 17

    Again I apologize as I am off topic.

    (Edited…you are correct …some way off topic. h.o)

    The Federal NDP will soon be left with nothing but a “Rump” of a Party after the October Election.

    Tick Tock !!

    There will be NO chance that Canada will end up in a Federal Minority Government in October as the NDP stand NO chance of taking any more than a few Seats.

    Tick Tock ! !

    In fact we might not see a Federal Minority Government in Canada for Generations as after the disintegration of the Federal NDP the Rump left over will be forced to merge with the Federal Liberals and the name of that party will be the

    “Liberal Democratic Party of Canada”

    Therefore going forward unlike the UK, there will be NO Minority Canadian Federal Governments for the foreseeable future.

    That might very well be a good thing?

    Whenever I am asked a question on this Blog I do my feeble best to answer truthfully and if proven wrong I am uh more than uh pleased to uh apologize, yet when I ask a question of anyone here I fail to get an honest answer.


    Again, I ask Scribe, DBW, and one or two others

    How do you know and why are you convinced there would be a “Remain” Result if another Brexit Vote was to be held today?

    Did you confer with Nostradamus, Kreskin, Karnac, Hillary Clinton, CNN, MSNBC, Adrian Dix ?

    They were all each and every one of them flawless and perfect when it came to forecasting how the vote would go in any given election, were they not?

    We Have lift Off !

  20. e.a.f says:

    BMCQ don’t really know what the tick tock is about, but usually it means a bomb is going to go off. now coming to that conclusion, if you are waiting for the NDP to disappear, hate to stomp on your happy dance but have a look at history and the number of NDP M.Ps. in Parliament and prior to that, the CCF. Over the decades it has been an accepted fact amongst many that the ndp WOULD never form government at the federal level. What they were there for was to agitate for change and some of that was accomplished. as Mother used to say, didn’t matter who passed the national health care act, it was passed. Some old NDPers simply wanted change and if the Liberals brought it about, fine. It was not until Jack Layton came along that the NDP became the official opposition. That in my opinion was a one off.

    (Edited…way off topic. h.o)

    Back to Brexit, my take is still the politicians in G.B have abandoned the people and are only interested in themselves. Some may think Theresa May is ineffective, but really what do people expect her to do. Hold a gun to the heads of others to get them to vote her way. She can not move European nations, so there is nothing she can do regardless of hard she works. Not a Conservative or May fan, but I do believe she has done her best and none of the others sitting in parliament would have done any better. Others would simply have been putting a stick in their wheel spokes also

  21. 13 says:

    So, eaf I opened the Harvey blog and scrolled to where I felt I had left off while reading all posts. I stopped in the middle of a post where the author was unknown to me but the use of the word whites had such a derogatory tone to it I thought “betcha its eaf” Twas. ‘
    Not sure why white brexit supporters would require ant more disdain than brexit supporters of any color. I see it was a tie today so it seems if you keep on voting sooner or later…..
    Tick tock is good a good natured shot at GTB . He uses tick tock to tell us that time is running out on our conservative hopes and dreams. Likely time is running out for jolly old England. England would be far better off if it werent so close to all of the European problems. Ergo brexit. Maybe Trump can arrange a massive land/population swap. England and Mexico trade geographic locations.
    Oddly I am white and guilt free.

  22. DBW says:

    Harvey you are a bit of a saint. I would love to know what BCMQ said that you deemed off topic when you still allowed the rest of the post that was pretty much off topic as well.

    But he did ask one on topic question of me which I will answer.

    First off, BMCQ, don’t you see the irony in demanding an explanation for my prediction when you preceded it with several unsubstantiated predictions of your own. And while you spoke with absolute certainty, I said “I am not so sure… but if they do….” Hope that is a good enough explanation.

    Harvey, I have done enough yakking on this topic so I won’t say anything more except let’s see how this plays out. Let’s see what kind of compromise May can work out with Corbyn, Sturgeon and the Welsh guy before we judge the efficacy of minority governments.

    (Response: I hate censoring anyone’s comments: I try to be “generous” and I can’t spend HOURS each day going through each and every comment word by word, idea by idea, taking out sentences or paragraphs and deciding if maybe remotely the point made does connect to the topic. So sometimes I may seem too lax; and when I do edit things out, it’s because I really sense they’re are getting WAY off topic and step in. h.o)

  23. BMCQ says:

    e.a.f. – 20

    Please believe me when I say that what I see as a very strong chance of the NDP facing a devastating defeat in the October Federal Election and then being left with a “Rump” of a Party and then merging with the Federal Liberals does not give me joy .
    As a Conservative I view the possible merger of the Federal NDP “Rump” and the then post PM Justin Liberals as a very serious threat going forward.

    I am quite simply making the observation that if that October NDP disastrous defeat takes place and the logical merger with the Liberals takes place I believe that Canada will see the end of Minority Governments for Generations.

    The end of Minority Governments is a positive but I believe a merged Liberal and NDP Liberal Democratic Party of Canada a clear and present danger to Conservatives, Canada, and Canadians.

    ( topic. h.o)

    I fully support your opinion of PM May, she was a “Remain” but she has done everything in her power to carry out Brexit and I respect her immensely for that.

    May is not being treated fairly by many in her own Con Party, the Opposition who are causing nightmares for the Minority Government, the EU Leadership, Merkel, Macron, and more.

    I may be mistaken but I believe May will get her deal but I am one that be;wives that NO Deal is better than a Bad Deal.

    The EU does not hold all of the cards here and I am sure there are Back Room Negotations going on as we speak.

    As I earlier stated the EU itself will soon have their own Electikn and there will be a price to pay, Brussels and the Arrogant, Pompous, Egotistical, Greedy, Dishonest, and Bullying EU Leadership and their Minions will soon pay a heavy price if they are not fair with Brexit and other EU Member Nations who are restless and beginning to Push Back.

    Just watch those EU Election Results.

    I am only speculating here but it may even be wise for the UK to Demand a Delay until after the EU Elections when the EU Leadership might be a little more malleable. Yes there would be sequels of protest from the EU right now but I do not believe they would force a Hard Brexit. We shall see.

    Let us hope the UK are not forced into another Election because it would more than likely be another Minority Government result.

    The whole of the EU are in danger of collapse if they do not address concerns of Member Nations almost immediately. They may soon have more Brexit Break Aways on their hands if they do not make serious chances soon.

  24. Gene The Bean says:

    13 @comment 21 – yes, Tick Tock is mine and as we all know, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

    What Tick Tock means to me is that the clock is ticking on far more than just conservative hopes and dreams. I note that neither of us used the term ‘values’ because to put it bluntly, conservative values no longer exist. They have been usurped by nationalist, white power and corporatist values.

    Is there a Tick Tock for the U.K. re Brexit??? Not sure, but there will be some very hard lessons learned and a lot of “ya buts” from the normal side.

    As I mentioned earlier, Brexit will be a huge lesson that those 30 and under need to vote in very high percentages or our world will continue to be dominated by old, entitled geezers who only have their own direct interests at heart.

    The world is changing. It is getting smarter, more aware, more caring, less inclined to blindly believe those who have the influence and power and much more culturally diverse. Some folks don’t like that……

    Tick Tock.

  25. BMCQ says:

    I have attached some interesting Polling information some of you may find of interest .

    Because of methodology, the initial Brexit Vote, the Trump Election, the mid collapse of the Left Vote in the EU, Italy, Germany, Canadian Provinces (Tick Tock) and so many other jurisdictions that were not foretold by Polls I more or less discount Polls but I still think those that believe “Remain” would be a “Shoe In” had better consider what they see in front of them.

    For anyone to believe that the Left is rising in the eU, Canada, or the U.S. spent far too much time with Dr. Timothy Leary back in the day .

    Unfortunately the Facts speak for themselves and no matter how we “Wish or Spin” we cannot somehow “Wish Away Reality” . Tick Tock !

    All we need to do is ask President Hillary Clinton, most Polling and Pro Leftist Media Spin does not get you much at the Ballot Box.

    Hell we cannot even blame it on “Russia Russia Russia” ! !

    Media types with an Agenda are also attempting to tell us that the Fascist, Anti Semitic, Labour Party and their Leader may win a Federal UK Election if called, somehow I doubt that.

    Facts are Facts and Fiction is Fiction, for anyone to believe that the NDP Left are actually gaining support anywhere in Canada are much like Bernie Taupin and Eltons Pin Boy Wizard.

    Tick Tock.

    Again there will be NO Minority Government in Canada and the Federal NDP will soon Vanish and be seen about as often as the Woolly Mammoth !

    Tick Tock ! !

    The Government do their own more sophisticated and reliable Polling, they will use much of that information as to what might dictate their next move. Frankly I now believe that there would not be a Minority Government if an Election was called today.

    The British People want “Brexit” and they want it now and they appear willing to Hard Brexit if need be.

    UK Politicians and the EU will Bend make a reasonable and fair and they will allow a reasonable Brexit Deal to take place. I just cannot see the Left taking a hard line with this, Merkel and her Government are in retreat and she is Finished and the French as usual will capitulate, anyone knows that if at any time more than 4 or 5 Tourist Buses go through the Arc de Triomphe within a few minutes of each other the French Government quickly surrenders, they will again back off on an unreasonable Brexit. Hell Macron is almost out of office as we speak, the Yellow Jackets are now in control. Tick Tock !

    As it now sits I would find it hard to see an UK Election favouring the Labour Loons, Corbyn is Anti Semitic, Racist, Fascist and he has No Character, Integrity, or Credibility, much like Canadian PM Justin. No Minority Government for the uk.

    The eU and Merkel are walking a Tightrope and they cannot afford to be unfair to the UK.

    DBW – 22

    You are good to pick up on my commentary.

    I have always given myself more credit for my forecasting than I give others as I do have a good track record but I was simply wondering if you would notice that I was critical of your Prediction but more accepting of my own. Human Nature I suppose.

    You and your other friends here may be correct about people now wanting to vote “Remain” but I doubt it very much .

    The attitude of the EU Leadership has upset the British People and that is not a good idea. I am not even sure if the UK People would vote in a Minority Government today, I am quite sure the Conservatives with BOJO as Leader would win easily .

    Hey DBW, sometimes all we have is our opinions and our track records .

    I do know one thing fore sure the eU establishment Left will suffer serious defeat in the upcoming Eletion and there will be much push back from Hard Working Freedom Loving Citizens of ALL Ethnic Backgrounds, Religions and Skin Tones all over the EU and they want more control over Immigration and Borders.

    The vote will reflect just that.

    Then of course the Individual Member Countries Ruling Class will e put on notice by those same citizens that also want control of immigration and Borders.

    I do not honestly see many Minority Governments in the EU other than perhaps Germany.

    One day we can look back on this Blog Topic of Harveys, it should be fun.

  26. 13 says:

    Pulleze Gene values? Really? I suppose the poster man child for left wing sjw values would have to Justine. Feminist? No. Champion of indigenous ? NO. Fraud? Yes Poser? Yes. Liar? Yes.
    Imitation is sometime a sincere form of flattery, other times its a simple way to ridicule .
    The rabid left is every bit as corrupt as the rabid right. That should be on topic re your first two paragraphs.
    As for the rest of your theories regarding old white geezers and brexit. I wonder how uncomfortable in your skin you have to be to not see the good in so many people. Many people thankfully can see the good in others even those that dont walk talk think vote believe or act in ways we dont approve of. Darkness reigns in some people worlds

  27. Diverdarren says:

    Harvey, I’m glad there are Brits that still identify themselves as British. Hopefully they will demand from their leadership a Britain First nationalism revival.

    The British watched as their sovereignty was eroded as their laws were overrode by European laws. Their boarders became non existent as European citizens from socio- economic depressed member states moved without restriction. This brought the expected results of ghetto- ization of the economic migrants, combined with the undercutting of the local labourer.

    We can watch these same results from poorly enforced boarders, lack of cultural identification and a breakdown of language homogenization here at home and in the USA.

    The Americans have shown a backlash to a move towards multiculturalism, and an assertive call for America First.

    I truly thought the British were too far gone for them to fight for their sovereignty, but I guess every society has its breaking point and the EU’s overreach was it. They believe, even at great pain that to be British means something more important than being a slave state to Europe.

    Surely the Irish can appreciate that sentiment.

    I have to wonder what will be Canada’s breaking point? As we watch the Statist- Progressive Left erase any notion of what it means to be Canadian, and with great success, I might add. Will Canadians demand a pull back on the reins as the Left drive us over the cliff?

    Will Canadians say, Canada First?

  28. Gene The Bean says:

    13 @#26 – shining light on the darkness is what makes some folks (possibly you?) uncomfortable….. That is unfortunate but I don’t apologize for it.

    “The rabid left is every bit as corrupt as the rabid right.” – Couldn’t agree more. The only difference is the rabid left is made up of often simplistic idealists who are loud and obnoxious but really have no platform or power. They are like a mosquito at a picnic.

    The rabid right have all the money, all the power, all the influence, own more politicians and governments and have the full backing of the big business and industry. Just a little different than a mosquito – don’t you think?

    But I’m not worried, that is all changing.

  29. max avelli says:

    Hi Harvey,

    Don’t blame minority government — Labour has been more supportive of a solution than the Conservatives. Just look at the votes on the latest 4 proposals a couple of days ago.


    The problem was David Cameron getting spooked by the rise of Nigel Farange’s crazy racist UKIP party when a few coloured people started showing up in Britain illegally, hitching rides on trucks from France to England.

    It is frightening to think that so little caused such a crisis.

    (Response: It would be in Labour’s own interests to co-operate with May/Tories to come up with a Brexit deal: a no-deal Brexit will have SEVERE consequences for UK citizens immediately and UK businesses in both the short and long term. From what I see going on now, I think a deal will be in the works very soon. h.o.)

  30. BMCQ says:

    Max – 29

    Once again, you must be kidding !

    Why let facts get in the way of a “Spin”, Correct Max?

    You claim that “It is so frightening that so little caused such a crisis” when in fact it was a Crisis that forced even the Failed PM DAVID Cameron to recognize their was indeed a Crisis and a Catastropphic Disaster Knocking at the Door of the British People regardless of their Ethnicity, Religion, or Skin Tone.

    It is very simple Max the Good People of the UK want control of Migration and they want control of their Borders.

    Even the most low informed Individuals must by now be aware that recent Polling shows a higher number of British favour “Brexit” now than before.

    I do not always believe Polls but people on this Blog quote Polls all the time.

    You seem to forget that a “Brexit” Vote Referendum took place and the “Leave” side won that vote won the day.

    Face facts Max, the UK and the EU are in a hell of a mess and the great people of the UK want to regain control and they are sick and tired of being governed by a group of Trolls from Brussels.

  31. 13 says:

    Gene we dont often agree but you finally hit the nail on the head.Your explanation of the differences between left and right. Left being simplistic and not to bright, living in a fantasy world of government handouts. The right being a lot brighter, creating wealth, funding government handouts. If either side buys politicians its seems that the right get more bang for their buck

  32. Gene The Bean says:

    Max @29 – agree completely.

    A lot of Brits felt their white privilege was being threatened and voted “for the good ‘ol days” where brown people and women knew their place.

    Farange is even a bigger racist than Trump – and that is saying something.

    Just like in Trumpistan, they will have to live with the consequences of making policy decisions based upon nationalism and racism.

    Lets hope the majority of Canadians are too smart to let the conservatives ruin Canada with scare tactics and dog whistles.

  33. nonconfidencevote says:

    No matter how Britain arrived at this political , economic and social mess.
    Their status as the world’s 6th largest economy will surely suffer.
    As for the EU allowing them more time….
    I highly doubt it.
    Everyone is fed up with the endless bickering, squabbling and brinksmanship in the British Parliament.
    Reaching a deal with the opposition Labour party is as unattainable as it ever was.
    Crashing out of the EU is more and more likely
    Britain will be made an example of as a warning to any other EU country considering leaving (Poland?).
    Theresa May has lost all authority to continue bargaining and Britain is now out of time.

    How bad will it be?
    I contacted a supplier in England of a particular, British only ,manufactured item last week.
    I wanted to know price and delivery times.
    They were able to give me a price but could not advise of gaurantee delivery due to the Customs uncertainty.
    Seems most containers are loaded for shipment to the Netherlands and then sent world wide…

    I hope people in Jolly old Blighty have stock piled toilet paper and prescription pills to get them through the next 6 months.

    (Response: I am quite sympathetic to May: her job is like herding cats … an almost impossible task. She was not a Brexit supporter, but seems to me she has tried valiantly to follow/carry out the people’s vote … even negotiated a fairly reasonable deal considering she has little leverage to demand the EU cater to Britain. Not surprising that so far , her critics haven’t come up with a deal that enough of they themselves would support …let alone then get approval from the EU nations. And the British people and the British economy is already paying a high price for the chaos. h.o.)

  34. nonconfidencevote says:

    @#32 Gene the Bean
    “Lets hope the majority of Canadians are too smart to let the conservatives ruin Canada with scare tactics and dog whistles.”

    We’re soooo much smarter than the Brits.

    We’ll let the Liberals ruin Canada with political correctness, huge deficit budgets and SNC -Lavalin federally awarded contracts….. thats much better…

  35. max avelli says:

    @BMCQ 30

    I will offer you this commentary from Ian Dunt, as it has things exactly correct, at

    “Brexit is a right-wing culture war conducted in populist terms. It is not really about the E.U. It is about people’s sense of who they are. It is about wanting a world of walls, separating people and ideas and political structures from one another. But it is not just a desired outcome: By now, it is also a way of doing things. The Brexit mind-set does not compromise or accept caveats. It is politics in primary colors. There is victory or national slavery, and nothing in between.”

    The world outlook of the Brexiteers is really no different than that of Trump supporters.

    We have a clear idea where your support lies.

  36. max avelli says:

    @BCMQ @30

    You say:

    “Even the most low informed Individuals must by now be aware that recent Polling shows a higher number of British favour “Brexit” now than before.”

    Please see:

    You know what they say about sometimes it is better to say nothing…?

  37. BMCQ says:

    I wonder if the almost 60% of the Sikhs that voted YES for “Brexit” realized that they had SO MUCH “White Privilege” ?

    Does that fact and result tell us that “Sikhs” are Racist?

    That then begs another question or two

    Just who are the “Yes” Sikh Voters Racist against?

    Are all other Ethnic UK People of Colour that Voted Yes for “Brexit” equally “Racist” as the Sikhs thst Voted Yes for “Brexit” ?

    And just what Consequences will the “Yes” Sikh Yes Voters and other Ethnic People of Colour that Voted Yes “Have to Live With” ?

    Please clarify and explain.

    As I stated up the page, yes May was a remain but she has fought a good fight and tried her best and she deserves great credit but she made many mistakes and followed bad counsel.

    It is now time for someone else to carry on with “Brexit” and secure a Good Fair Deal for the UK.

    People on this Blog do not seem to be aware that The EU is in danger of collapse and the upcoming EU Elections will drive that point home.

    The UK needs someone much more assertive than May going forward, the EU needs to negotiate a much better Deal, if they do not the EU will in fact suffer more.

    Sooner or later the EU will need to allow Member Nations Control Over their own Borders and Immigration by re organization back to a Eoropean Common Market including the UK or Chaos will Reign Supreme.

    The facts are it is the UK that are in a stronger position than the EU.

    If there is delay until after the EU Parliament Elections the EU will be in a much weaker position of negotiation and the EU know that.

    Someone like BoJo needs to show the UK that they are indeed in a position of strength and that individual needs to show the UK that Political and Media Elites like Markell, Macron, Tusk, Juncker, do not know what they are talking about.

    It is long past Time to call their Bluff.

    In closing I would like to say I am very impressed and thankful with the courage of Sikhs and other Visible Minorities of Colour that Voted Leave, I hope they are enjoying their “White Privilege” !

  38. BMCQ says:

    (Edited…off topic ..and cut the personal insults, please. h.o)

    Without Control of Immigration, without Defined Botders, and without the ability to Defend those Defined Borders One Has No Country .

    I simply direct you to ask virtually any thinking person in the EU if they would argue with my opinion.

  39. max avelli says:

    It seems to me that the longer the post the less they have to say of any substance.

    (Edited …off topic. … and too long too. h.o.)

  40. BMCQ says:

    PM May is meeting with Merkel and Macron and perhaps EU Elected Officials today, notice how much sway and control those two have on decision making when it comes to the whole “Brexit” action?

    Merkel has always been a Buly and now that she has virtually lost her position in Germany over her insane and ridiculous Migration Policy she forced Germany and the EU into she is angry, bitter, vindictive, and she is striking out at the UK and the British People of all ethnicities, religions, and skin tones that have seen through her Sham of Open Borders and want out.

    Macron is close to being forced to resign, he is also angry and power mad and he feels the EU Membership, Cultures, and Economies for the most part are getting closer to collapse and in fact dissolution.

    It is only a matter of time and after the soon to come late May EU Elections the results will show the writing is on the wall. Pro EU Leaders will suffer greatly at the Polls and Merkel and the rest are desperate to push the UK into a Bad Deal soon to avoid the fallout of that Election before a “Brexit” is settled.

    That would be disastrous for the EU as after a failed Election the EU would be in a very weak and in fact impossible position with no negotiation power at all.

    EU Leadership, Merkel, Macron and other Member Countries are desperate to hold onto power and the “Trappings” and Presstige that go along with that power so they are and will do anything to force May and the UK into a deal now.

    It is not only very difficult for the UK to stand together because of a Minority Gov position but with a split in the Conservatives it makes close to impossible to anywhere unified in their quest.

    May has tried her best but she is flailing, she needs to go to the offensive and confront the EU, Merkel, and Macron and she needs to reject their unwillingness to negotiate fairly.

    It is now obvious that the EU are up to no good and it is time for all UK Politicians regardless of Party to stand together show strength and work for the British People and Demand a “Brexit” that the “Leave “ Side Voted for. Minority Government or not, it is time to put the Country First .

    The EU would back down almost immediately.

    The Trade Deals with the EU would soon fall into place and after May 23 the EU will need to do much in the way of re structuring and much of that will include Trade Improvements along with each Member Nation having Control over Borders and Immigration.

    What they have now in Migration and Border Controls is obviously a Catastrophic Disaster and anyone with an IQ over Room Temperature is able to recognize that.

    No Country can allow people to Immigrant into that Country that believe their Religion takes precidense over the “Rule of Law” in that Nation .

  41. BMCQ says:

    the Mayor of London will be “Over the Moon” with this information.

    I suggest you read the public comments at the bottom of the piece .

    Of course they are not all appropriate but …….

  42. Eldon says:

    I think there should be a second vote. It’s clear to me that people of the UK did not understand what they were voting for. Nigel and Boris admitted to lying to the public.

    Now that Brits truly understand what the consequences are, they should be given another voice. If they still vote to leave, the question is settled and full throttle hard Brexit should be instituted the following day.

    ( response: the problem with a second vote is the same as Canada faced with separatism. If you don’t succeed, try and try again. It’s not the best of two out of three, or three out of five… Until your side wins. The people spoke; the people voted Their decision .. even if others disagree .. should be carried out. H.o)

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