Keeping it Real…

Keeping it Real… header image 2

Clark/Liberals FAIL Biggest Poll Question

April 12th, 2017 · 70 Comments

I know. I know. The terrible record of accuracy … or should I say inaccuracy … in polling results in the last BC elections  doesn’t give them much credibility to boast about as we head to the polls once more.

But I couldn’t help but take notice … and great interest … to ONE particular question in a survey commissioned and revealed this week by Global TV and Ipsos Reid.

And I’d bet ALL three BC major political parties took notice too!

First, there was the usual …. Who would you likely support?

The NDP took the lead, with 34% support; followed by the Liberals at 30%; and, the Greens at 9%.  No big surprise at this point in the campaign … just like last time.

Then, respondents were also asked Who they think will win?

Again, not so surprising,  38% said the Liberals will win a majority; 22% predicted an NDP majority.

BUT 22% also predicted “some other outcome”  … opening up the possibility (or wishful thinking) for a minority government …  and THAT would raise all kinds of possibilities for BC’s political future.

However, although THAT is intriguing … there was another Question that yielded an even more noteworthy response.

“Is it time for another provincial party to take over and run the province?”

A MAJORITY of those polled …  56% …. said it’s “time for another provincial party to take over”.

WOW!

MORE THAN HALF believe the Liberals should go!!

Only 28% said Premier Christy Clark’s government has done a good job and deserves re-election. (Another 16% had no opinion.)

That is a real FAIL for Clark and the Liberals …  not a vote of confidence after 15 years in power for the Liberals and six years with Clark as Premier.

In fact,  just four weeks before we vote, of those who expressed their opinion, only 14% rated Clark as the most trustworthy among party leaders; NDP Leader John Horgan didn’t do much better, at 17%;  and the Greens’ Andrew Weaver trailed at 14% … while a whopping 57% couldn’t choose any of them.

There will be more polls; there will be more promises; there will be more exposure; there will be a Leaders’ Debate on News 1130 radio  on Thursday April 20th from 8:30 a.m. to 10 a.m.; and, there will a televised Leaders’ Debate on Wednesday April 26, beginning at 6:30 p.m.

Can hardly wait!

Harv Oberfeld

Tags: British Columbia · Media

70 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Harry lawson // Apr 12, 2017 at 8:33 pm

    Harvey

    The low numbers the NDP received should be concerning to the NDP.

    In my opinion it shows exactly how poor they have done ,not only as opposition also with marketing their party.

    This is still early days lots can happen between now and polling day. Just ask Dix. Just before the last election the NDP supporters were lining up at the trough , drunk with arrogance. Then out of the blue Dix flpflopped and the liberals proved the polls wrong.

    (Response: Certainly no party or leader received any overwhelming vote of confidence. But when you are in power and more than half of those answering a poll believe it IS time for ANOTHER party to take over … that’s a big worry. h.o)

  • 2 13 // Apr 12, 2017 at 8:36 pm

    Well I hope that the polls are as flawed as they were 4 years ago. Listening to Horgans grocery list of big ticket spending (msp, tolls gonzo) $10 per day daycare and the guaranteed $400 per year rent increase to be handed over from one renters hand to the landlord. So tomorrow Horgan will explain how he will fund this good time charlie platform. You can bet that business owners are scanning real estate ads in other jursidictions. The middle class should be prepared to either become richer than they thought and pay more tax or perhaps their middle class income will follow the employer when he/she bails out of beautiful BC for more favorable taxation. Then Horgan might just rip a page out of Justins play book and spend like a drunken sailor and let the debts pile up up up and away.

    (Response: Will be interesting to see his platform costing out figures. h.o)

  • 3 North Van's Grumps // Apr 12, 2017 at 8:49 pm

    the Poll is protected by copyright

    http://globalnews.ca/news/3370359/bc-election-poll-majority-want-change/

  • 4 D. M. Johnston // Apr 12, 2017 at 8:57 pm

    Polls today are a dime a dozen, especially on line polls; the polls that really count are those that the political parties do not release.

    Most people who have talked me about the election are tried of the Liberals, some even disgusted but they do not want to vote for the NDP.

    So here is the problem as I see it; there is a certain percentage of voters who do not want to vote Liberal but will not vote NDP.

    Do they:

    1) Stay at home and not vote?
    2) Hold their nose and vote Liberal?
    3) Vote independent?

    Personally I think many will stay home and not vote, like the NDP rout in the 2001 election. Some may vote Green and in Delta South we voted independent.

    Will there be an ABC election, anybody but Clark election?

    Time will tell, but when I was in South Surrey and saw a reelection sign of a certain candidate running for relation, I just whispered under my breathe”Child-killer” and in another “on the take” and so on.

    How many other people are doing the same thing? I don’t know and I am not going to vote Liberal.

    For me it is a toss up between an independent and the NDP and the independent is winning in my thoughts now.

    Time for regime change.

  • 5 e.a.f. // Apr 12, 2017 at 8:58 pm

    Now that was interesting and thank you so much for sharing. Hadn’t heard that one at all.

    yes, I’ll vote NDP but it isn’t the party of my younger years and it could be improved.

    The B.C. Lieberals need to go. they aren’t liberal. they’re a mish mash of all sort of political stripes. A lot of those running the show in government came from Stephen Harper’s show. there is a lovely chart up which shows there are approx. 25 senior former harper aids now working for Christy. So that isnt’ any liberal party. its the old Conservative/Reform party.

    I’d rather see a decent progressive conservative party alive and well so people had something to vote for if they disagreed with the NDP and/or the B.C. Lieberals. the B.C. Lieberals need to be relegated to the ash can of life and politics and then anew center party created more in line with the values of real Liberals. then the green party could have some real Greens running instead of Weaver who hasn’t said or done much for the environment. Oh, wait wasn’t he the guy who supported women not being forced to wear high heels at work. Nice going. How about a real stand on the Site C dam or coming out against the bear hunt, things like that. Give the history of the Greens with Weaver, even if I was so pissed with the NDP I still wouldn’t vote for Weaver.

    This election may be interesting that it maybe every one stays home except the stalwarts in each party or every one being so pissed goes out to vote. We shall see next month. In the meantime lets get out there and support our favorite party, vote early and stay involved.

  • 6 Lew // Apr 12, 2017 at 9:52 pm

    @13:

    Why would business owners now be scanning real estate ads in other jurisdictions if they’ve been sitting still for this?

    http://commonsensecanadian.ca/economist-thanks-liberals-bc-canadas-indebted-province/

  • 7 DBW // Apr 12, 2017 at 11:49 pm

    We can read a lot or nothing into polls. I am not surprised that 56% want another party to take over. In the last election the Liberals received 44% of the vote – in other words 56% voted for other parties.

    28% say the Liberals are deserving of re-election. Which doesn’t sound good but they didn’t ask if the NDP or the Greens were deserving of taking power. They just asked if it were time for another party to take power.

    But if that ideal party of our imagination doesn’t actually exist then where do those people place their X.

    I cannot support a party that has been responsible for a horrible health care scandal, a 15 year illegal underfunding of the education system, a failed promise of trillions from an imaginary LNG pipe dream, the mismanagement of BC Hydro, an increasing debt not counting the contractual obligations that aren’t listed… You get my drift.

    But I am not naive enough to think that everybody thinks as I do. In fact four years ago after the last election I wrote on our local message board that we would have four years of scandal and disappointment resulting in a Liberal victory in 2017. I got the first part right (scandal and disappointment); and I still fear a Liberal victory.

    (Response: Good point about the vote results last election. We could end up watching a re-run of voting patterns. The challenge is for Horgan to change that…by coming up with a JOBS DEVELOPMENT plan to excite and motivate WORKING voters to support the NDP, rather than just announce the usual spend, spend, spend on those most in need: we saw where that got Dix. h.o)

  • 8 nonconfidencevote // Apr 13, 2017 at 5:23 am

    I couldnt imagine why the Liberals are so “untrustworthy”…….
    Then I read this memory refresher…..

    https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/04/10/BC-Liberal-Falsehoods-Scandals-Whole-List/

  • 9 nonconfidencevote // Apr 13, 2017 at 5:28 am

    @#4 DMJ
    “1) Stay at home and not vote?
    2) Hold their nose and vote Liberal?
    3) Vote independent?
    *********************************************

    4) Hold their nose and vote NDP?

    I CANNOT in all good conscience vote that cash collecting, truth bending, political hack back in as Premier….If that means 4 years of NDP stupidity. Its a small price for 15 years of Liberal feeding at the trough with another 4 years of Christys smirking, inane, babbling BS

  • 10 Marge // Apr 13, 2017 at 6:50 am

    As one who was going to stay at home, I am going to hold my nose and vote NDP. I absolutely cannot stand Clark so it will be ABC for me – anyone but Clark. I am hoping for a minority government. I have done a CBC poll where you had to rate the leaders as well so it will be interesting to see the results of that one. Don’t know if the Global poll is trust worthy as the last election had the NDP way out in front and we all know what happened there. I am willing to give Horgan a chance. Another reason for voting NDP is that I cannot vote for the Liberal running in my riding – a long term politician on various fronts who has lived off the avails of politicaldom for way too long and who couldn’t tell the truth if he was facing his Maker.

  • 11 noneck // Apr 13, 2017 at 8:05 am

    ABC for me. Her “involvement” in the Health Firings fiasco is the tipping point.

    We’ve survived 1+ years of Trudeau and the sky hasn’t fallen. I think we can manage 4 years of a change in provincial politics. Our bigger threats exist south of the border.

  • 12 Gordie // Apr 13, 2017 at 8:20 am

    I saw that poll as well and some parts don’t make a lot of sense. 56% think it’s time for a different party to run the show, so that means 44% think the Liberals should remain in power, but only 30% of the people support the Liberals. So 14% of the people who think the Liberals should remain in power don’t actually support the Liberals! Huh? I suppose there might but some offbeat explanation for this, but I suspect some people didn’t really put a lot of thought into their answers, making the whole poll suspect.

  • 13 Ed Seedhouse // Apr 13, 2017 at 8:20 am

    I think this time the election may be about democracy. If we vote the “liberals” in for another term they will then know that they can do *anything* and not be punished politically for it, and you can bet that they will then proceed to do *anything*, because they can.

    The only party that can replace them is the N.D.P. and like it or not, our current system is such that a vote for anyone else risks keeping the current gang in power. Better to vote Green or independent than “liberal” of course, but to be sure you cast a vote for democracy the N.D.P. is your surest bet.

    I think governments rule best when they know and remember that they can be and *have* in the recent past been defeated.

    I think for most voters the most rational position is that by default they will vote for the opposition. Then they can ask “what has the government done to make my life better?” and if the answer is “not enough” then vote to kick them out.

    After a few election losses maybe the ruling coalition in B.C. might get the point and decide to govern in the people’s interest.

    One thing is, I think, clear from history. Government that thinks it can’t be defeated is *bad* government.

  • 14 BMCQ // Apr 13, 2017 at 8:24 am

    Lots of Campaigning taking place on the Harvey Blog these days, even more than usual.

    Unfortunately most everyone that actually Posts here are already in the category of “Mind Made Up” and none of us will be switching Loyalties any time soon.

    As to the Polls that have The NDP ahead ONCE AGAIN let me ask the following. Will those Polls be any better than the Polls that …

    Gave HRC an 80% chance of becoming POTUS?

    Said DJT could not take Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and so many others because of the Clinton “Blue Wall”

    What about those most reliable Polls that said “Brexit” could not see a “Leave” Vote?

    And what about those Polls that told us here in B.C. About our soon to be B.C. Premier and Campaigning Genius Adrian Dix, how did that Polling work out?

    Then there was PM Michael Ignatieff, oh and where is that “Great Canadian” now back living in the U.S.?

    Only two Elections ago the Rose was polled to become elected in Alta, the Cons wiped them out and then the NDP won there, really?

    I do not understand why any of us take any Polls from ALMOST any source very seriously. I do however know that the fellow with the Greek last name that Polls internally for the B.C. Libs had it correct four years ago and I believe they know where they stand day to day up until May 9.

    I do not pretend to be an expert but the
    Methodology is most important and most Pollsters are spending too much time talking to youngish people that live in their Mums Basement and Poll on Line. Most of those do not travel to the REAL Polling Station on Election Days.

    I believe that not just in B.C. Or Canada, but in the rest of the World Polling has proven to be very very inconsistent at best and regardless of which Party one supports nothing should be taken for granted. Correct President Hillary?

    Oh and by the way, I have a question for you NDP Supporters.

    Is it true that John Horgan and his NDP Minions will soon be Promising to PAY Commuters $1.00 each way just for crossing the Port Mann Bridge,while at the same time promising Canuck Seasons Tickets to every Citizen of B.C, when he becomes Premier?

    And how will he fund this ambitious “Election Platform”?

    Not to worry, “OBAMA CARE” will pay for it!

    (Response: I agree many of those who comment have their minds made up. However, there are more than 60,000 who read this blog some months…so I’m sure what we all discuss on here could impress …or depress … some of them: and affect how they decide. And the politicians and their parties are watching and reading too….and the smart ones will pay great attention. h.o.)

  • 15 Rainclouds // Apr 13, 2017 at 8:27 am

    Would love to see a minority govt. Not likely though.

    -NDP Scared of spending /taxation
    -Greens (Scarier)
    -Libs and Clark are arrogant, smug, fat, and lazy. fiscally incompetent (see provincial debt)To the woodshed with them.

    Torn between Libertarian and NDP (anybody but the Liberals this time for me)

    (Response: I like minority governments in some cases …federally. But I’m not enthusiastic about it for BC … at least not at this time, in a first-past-the-post electoral system, because frankly, the Greens, would scare me in that role, propping up a weak NDP administration. At least the NDP vs the Liberals provide a clear choice…although I WISH there was another free-enterprise but socially liberal choice as well. h.o.)

  • 16 BMCQ // Apr 13, 2017 at 8:33 am

    One last thing and I actually think many of us on this Blog regardless of Party Affiliation might agree for once.

    I believe that Public Polling within say 90 Days of an Election Day should be banned in Canada at all
    Three Levels of Government.

    I strongly believe that too many of the “Great Unwashed” can and might be influenced by Polling Results.

    Of course some could say 60 or 90 days but regardless I believe Legislation should be considered.

    By the way, I miss morry!

    (Response: I don’t like banning anything …unless public safety etc is involved… and polls don’t fit into that group. h.o)

  • 17 Gene The Bean // Apr 13, 2017 at 8:42 am

    Polls are untrustworthy.
    So are the BC Liberals.

    I actually laughed out loud at a couple of your “astute” commenters that used personal one-off (if it is even true) situations to justify the BC Liberals and voting for them on your last post. Especially considering what that post was about. Shameful.

    It once again proves that most conservatives are just in it for themselves and screw everyone else (especially those ‘brown’ people, the poor and disadvantaged – it is their fault, right?) The perfect world for conservatives is to go back 50 years and have today, just like it was then.

    When some guy earning 25% more than poverty level truly thinks that giving the rich and corporations tax cuts is best for him and his family …. well … does it really need further explaining?

    The 1%ers are killing us. Literally killing us and the planet.

    Progressive agendas that take the needs of the many ahead of the needs of the few is the only future. If you dont believe me, ask Charles Darwin…….

  • 18 skidder // Apr 13, 2017 at 9:07 am

    How sad to read the comments which have a common theme of disappointment, disillusion, disrespect and disaster towards the people who have “led” us. I wonder if any politician ever really feels shame or unhappiness with the track record each government leaves in its wake. I wish there was someone I could vote FOR.

  • 19 Hawgwash // Apr 13, 2017 at 10:06 am

    When I hear people toss out the tired old question; “where will the NDP get the money?” I have to ask those same people where the Liberals got the money for;

    Port Mann
    Golden Ears
    BC Place
    Convention Centre
    Olympic Games
    LNG
    Site C
    Massey Bridge
    15 year court battle with teachers
    Fare Gate
    Failed data systems
    Secret loans to developers

    Also, where does the money come from to subsidize the losers on that list?
    ——————————————
    In the previous post a regular used the term “politically homeless.” A position I think many feel this time around, including me.

    I have been very vocal with my criticism of John Horgan and what I perceived as a mediocre, lacklustre Opposition Leader. I have voiced my doubts about an NDP victory but have also said I would be one of the first to congratulate him in the event of a success.

    I need Mr. Horgan to take a solid position on investigating AND prosecuting political corruption, Site C, Massey, Hydro, education, healthcare, housing, transit and jobs, instead of promising a $400 per year rental subsidy to Christy Clarke because…just when I was starting to feel ok about the NDP, I see this;
    https://twitter.com/theBreakerNews/status/851963326422581248
    and this;
    https://twitter.com/theBreakerNews/status/851915037409107968

    The level of inattention and ineptitude just makes me shake my head and rethink entrusting my vote to a bunch of amateurs.

  • 20 Hawgwash // Apr 13, 2017 at 10:12 am

    YES!!!
    https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/04/13/BC-Election-Should-Be-About-Corruption/

  • 21 E. Johnson // Apr 13, 2017 at 10:56 am

    I happen to believe that the poll results simply reflect peoples’ disenchantment with politics and politicians in general. They respond to polls according to the mood that they are in at the time. We vote governments out of to punish them not because we are inspired by the their opponents. For me it comes down to voting for the party that will do the least harm or not voting at all. The choices are dismal.

    (Response: Certainly appropriate to say “at the time”. Opinions can change substantially, based on promises, programs, campaign ads and campaign speeches, debates, news events, revelations …etc. I have found minds of the undecided voters planning to cast ballots are made up in the last week or two weeks …sometimes even the night before they vote. h.o.)

  • 22 Ed Seedhouse // Apr 13, 2017 at 12:17 pm

    For what it may be worth, the N.D.P. platform is out at available on the web at https://action.bcndp.ca/page/-/bcndp/docs/platform_book_1.pdf

  • 23 Scotty on Denman // Apr 13, 2017 at 1:00 pm

    Polls mislead. We’ve had a lot of polls, including elections—the polls that count. Partisan bias is dripping from every cornice, mixed with laziness, and you get the “better-the-devil-you-know” effect. The NDP is disadvantaged of course, not being the incumbent government, but it has also been unfairly and inaccurately smeared from the right (with its bought-and-paid-for pamphleteering arm) for decades. There’s a resulting reluctance to change (read Eric Hoffer’s Ordeal of Change) in any system and, in BC, that means voters are reluctant to install the NDP, even though the reasons for not doing so are vague, prejudiced and lame, and reticent to rid the BC Liberals, even though there’s a mountain of factual reasons for doing so.

    The Green’s riding and at-large poll numbers do not translate to seats. Rather, they suggest vote-splitting in favour of the BC Liberals is going to be a factor, as usual. It’s a question of how much.

    But there are a number of factors that suggest change is coming: Christy has been a disappointment, no question. The NDP has a new and better leader, the last one blowing supposed lead by simply doing nothing to refute plainly lame smears by the BC Liberals. Those factors should have the effect of damping soft BC Liberal support and reminding soft NDP supporters (and, let’s face it, all parties in BC garner only soft support) that complacency doesn’t help get rid of the worst government BC’s ever had.

    That said, if the last federal contest is any indication, surveyed Green support is probably much higher—double in the federal example—than what self-identified Greens actually vote, the reason being strategic voting to avoid vote-splitting that favours the least environmentally responsible party, the Conservatives federally, the BC Liberals provincially.

    Finally, the last federal election’s turnout among the youngest cohort surged an astonishing 12%, and I think it was partly due to SV because that was the best opportunity to actually influence the outcome, but—and this is important—without having to commit to any party. In short, young voters seemed to be attracted to the vote for tactical rather than partisan reasons. Indeed, the more the party leaders dismissed, ridiculed and warned against SV (and, really, no party can ever condone SV if it wants to keep its vital volunteer force loyal and motivated), the more young voters were attracted to it. (I’ve written a bunch about first-time voters in the last federal election miscalculating the SV formula resulting, in effect, a bandwagon effect that favoured JT—but that miscalculation is harder to make at the provincial level—plus, if BC’s share of those young, first-time federal voters have benefitted from the experience and want to continue to participate, SV might have a more potent and precise influence in BC.)

    One thing’s for sure: the BC Liberals have consistently broken the public trust in successively perfidious ways each time they’ve been returned. Voters might finally be ready to swallow their prejudices about the NDP simply because we can expect, by well founded inference, that a re-elected BC Liberal government would be even worse that it has been—an almost unimaginable outcome.

    (Response: Never ceases to amaze me: parties get elected on certain promises and goodies …and then, don’t deliver or, to pay for them, increase all kinds of other fees and taxes they forgot to mention during the election … and yet, get re-elected again with MORE promises of goodies! Perhaps because voters think the alternative would do the same …or even worse. h.o)

  • 24 Harry lawson // Apr 13, 2017 at 1:35 pm

    I personally consider the Clark iiberals a a travesty of democracy, I may not like the alternatives however I look at 4 Years of a alternative akin to chemo therapy. Hopefully when it is over we will be politically healthier. As stands right now I am considering not voting . Yes abstaining . How many others are thinking the same?

  • 25 nonconfidencevote // Apr 13, 2017 at 2:02 pm

    @#14 BMCQ
    Re: Unreliable polls

    Total agreement.
    I’ve been taking a bit of a “sign poll” since the writ was dropped. I travel all over the lower brainland almost on a daily basis.
    I’ve seen dozens of NDP posters and lawn signs.
    Liberals? One sign. One.
    Where’s all the money they have for campaigning?
    Surely to God there would be tens of thousands of dollars for signs. I saw a carpenter hammering together 150 of them for Liberal Steve Darling behind his constituency office last Friday.
    But then I remembered.
    Home owners and business owners have to agree to the sign placement……..
    Money spent Flights and Hotels for her Highness and the obligatory minions?
    Cant have Christy wandering about without the entire event being captured by a team of govt “journalists” for future historians to gawp at in utter amazement……

  • 26 e.a.f. // Apr 13, 2017 at 2:49 pm

    Had I been 20 years younger this would have been the time to run as an independent and moved on to a new career. it would appear from the posts here lots are unhappy with almost everybody. Some of those milleniual ought to have run as independents and started collecting a decent salary. They not only get a salary but a $12K a year housing allowance for which they do have to provide receipts. So if Horgan is going to suggest giving renters a renter’s grant the way home owners get a home owners grant, hey makes sense to me. if its good enough for the MLAs. it ought to be good enough for the voters/taxpayers. All Horgan is doing is leveling the playing field when it comes to paying off the taxpayers. The ones who get the most are the home owners. why? those who need it most are those who can’t afford to buy, the renters.

    Actually if I had my way, neither group would get a grant. Home owners ought not to be given a grant each year to “help” with their property taxes. if you’re a senior you can defer them anyhow. If you can’t afford your property taxes then it maybe you can’t afford the house, period and need to re consider your options. Eventually you will be priced out of your home anyhow, so why waste tax dollars on home owners grants which come from taxes paid by renters who can’t afford to buy. (oh this is way off topic) sorry. But getting back to link it to the topic. The polls may change as the various parties make their various promises. every party is going to promise to give things hoping to bribe the voters so really what they promise, lets not get too excited about it. IF the NDP gets elected and opens the books, they will find this province is not only dead broke, but in debt to the tune of $100B. I’m sure they’re aware of that any how, give what Norm Farrell has been writing with the provincial governments own figures.

    We need to give Christy the heave. 8 dead kids in care, 4 dead in death by hospital, a suicide because of the Christy’s government’s inquisition. Not to put too fine a point on it but I don’t think the Hell’s Angels have been responsible for that many deaths in the last little while in that manner. Not a record any politician ought to win on. Gee 13 dead, $100B in debt and people want to vote for Christy again?

  • 27 Hawgwash // Apr 13, 2017 at 7:40 pm

    Mr. Horgan;
    I liked what I saw today, sir.

  • 28 Crankypants // Apr 13, 2017 at 11:40 pm

    I don’t know how anyone can put any stock in polls when the sample size is approximately .1% of the number of voters that cast a ballot in the last provincial election. It also seems ludicrous for the pollster to claim any degree of accuracy.

    It also seems highly unlikely that the Conservatives will attain 3% of the vote with only 8 candidates running for them so far.

    One thing that intrigues me is how the polling company was able to obtain the cell phone numbers for the 155 participants they state they queried, or did they just dial random numbers until someone answered.

    If the polling companies want to prove their worth and supposed accuracy, why don’t they conduct a similar poll on May 9 and release their results at 8:00pm when the polls close.

  • 29 13 // Apr 14, 2017 at 7:32 am

    To those that think a new government will spend time and money investigating the previous governments transgressions Ive got some dusty BRIC shares for sale.
    Its easier to find examples of a new government pardoning the past crooks than examples of prosecution.
    Cynics might think that every political party knows that they are just as corrupt, just as likely to accept donations from influential doners, just as likely to pander to their voter base, just as likely to break promises, just as likely to raise fees (not taxes) just as bad as the previous regime

  • 30 BMCQ // Apr 14, 2017 at 9:07 am

    Perhaps while we are still on the Topic of Polls We on this Blog could sort of conduct our own Poll and ask the Loyal NDP Supporters who they would pick as Cabinet Members for the incoming New NDP B.C. Government.

    I will give you a head start and even offer a suggestion or two and then you could all Cast your Poll Favourite for each Position.

    I am quite sure there will be many qualified Candidates that will come to mind very quickly so it could take an extended period of time to consider each and every one of the very qualified Candidates for each Ministry.

    PREMIER – John Horgan

    Attorney General –
    Finance – Gene the Bean?
    Mines – Not required there will be no Mining
    Forests – Not required
    Education –
    Healthcare –
    Children –
    Environment –
    Agriculture –
    Jobs and Economic Development –
    LNG – Not required
    Transportation -
    Trans link –

    Obviously I did suggest one myself and I hope they appreciate a little humour on this Good Friday but I did spend a half hour looking at potential NDP Cabinet Ministers and frankly the choice is very limited.

    Yes, I am fully aware that those of you in the “Hate the Libs” Group would also find great fault with the currently sitting Liberal B.C. Cabinet Members but just the same, I would be very interested in hearing your choices.

  • 31 nonconfidencevote // Apr 14, 2017 at 9:32 am

    If anyone else reading this blog around the Province could chime in with their “straw poll” count of lawn signs it would be interesting.
    Just rough figures. Location and sign ratio estimate. Lib vs NDP. 2 to 1. , 3 to 1, etc.

    If there are just as many Lib supporters as NDP supporters the lawn signs arent indicating it in the Lower Brainland.
    Lib supporters too embarrassed or too worried to stand up an be identified?
    Or are the “official” polls taken out there totally out to lunch?
    Only time will tell.

  • 32 Ed Seedhouse // Apr 14, 2017 at 10:30 am

    Crankypants:”I don’t know how anyone can put any stock in polls when the sample size is approximately .1% of the number of voters that cast a ballot in the last provincial election. It also seems ludicrous for the pollster to claim any degree of accuracy.”

    The mathematics of sampling disagree with you. So long as the sample size is big enough to form a normal (Gaussian) distribution (greater than approximately 32), and the samples are truly random, you can compute a confidence interval for the thing you are sampling. The narrowness of the confidence interval halves every time the sample size is squared. For sample sizes of 1500 or so the confidence interval for any one question is around plus or minus 3% 95% of the time. To get to 1.5% you’d have to sample over two million people, obviously impractical.

    The problem with polls is not sample size. There here *are* problems, just not because of sampling size.

    The problems mostly come from asking too many questions in a single poll (each question increases the error size for any one question) and asking bad questions. Even the order in which questions are asked can change the result of a poll. And there are a number of other possible confounding problems as well. It’s just that sample size is not one of them.

    And of course if the poll isn’t a random sample of the whole population (like on line polls) then the sample size doesn’t matter at all. No valid information can be obtained from such polls which are, alas, becoming all too common.

    Also the more polls that are taken, assuming all the other confounding factors are taken care of which they seldom are, the greater the likelihood that one or more of them will be wrong.

  • 33 BMCQ // Apr 14, 2017 at 12:53 pm

    NonCon – 31

    I have already listed several that should cast a great doubt on any reliability on Polling that has taken place in many Countries and Provinces, I am quite sure you and others here could point out many more Polls that have been far off in their
    Forecast.

    Scientific Polling? Yeah Sure!

    Look at the Poll results quoted by h.o. above that actually shows 38% of the Contributors feel the B.C. Libs will be re-elected. Then read the rest of the results, “Mumbo Jumbo”, seems very convoluted, confused, and contrived to me.

    Methodology My Friend!

    Ed – 32

    Looks like you have it ALL figured out, I strongly suggest you contact Adrian Dix, Hilary Rhodam Clinton and the “Brexit Stay” Group they could use your Scientific Fool Proof Mehodology of “How to take a Poll” and “Guarantee Good Results”!

    THE Bottom Line here is the fact that no matter how one would like to “Spin” Polling is NOW unreliable at best.

    The Media likes to use Polling because it creates News and grabs Viewership, Listeners, and Viewers simple as that.

    Once again, the B.C. Liberal Pollster had it correct four years ago and I am quite sure he has it quite accurately today.

    I am also quite sure that Mr. Horgan has an internal NDP Pollster currently using similar Methodology and they have an idea where they stand with the Electirate.

    Big News here is neither of them are talking.

  • 34 Ed Seedhouse // Apr 14, 2017 at 3:01 pm

    BMCQ: ‘Ed – 32

    Looks like you have it ALL figured out, I strongly suggest you contact Adrian Dix, Hilary Rhodam Clinton and the “Brexit Stay” Group they could use your Scientific Fool Proof Mehodology of “How to take a Poll” and “Guarantee Good Results”!’

    If you had actually taken the time to read what I said you might, possibly, have understood what I was saying, which has nothing to do with your little parody.

    I guess that’s too much to expect.

  • 35 SunWuKong // Apr 14, 2017 at 3:26 pm

    FWIW the CBC Vote Compass tool has been updated for the BC Election — covers the 2 major + Green parties.

    https://votecompass.cbc.ca/bc

    Full Disclosure: N0t a member of any political party at any level, the CBC, polling firms, etc.

  • 36 Lew // Apr 14, 2017 at 5:51 pm

    Subject to election of course, it is not unreasonable to expect the cabinet to follow the existing shadow cabinet. There are some very talented individuals in the group.

    https://www.bcndp.ca/files/2017-01-27-Horgan-Shadow-cabinet-backgrounder-2017.pdf

  • 37 BMCQ // Apr 14, 2017 at 10:37 pm

    How much evidence do we need to conclude that Polling today is at best very suspect?

    I would like to put up a link to a NYT analysis of
    Polling today but I am away and navigating on an I Pad and I am having trouble with attaching the Link entitled

    “What’s the Matter with Polling?”

    Lew – 36

    Yes, I am well familiar with the NDP Shadow Cabinet, especially Crime Fighter Mike Farnworth, Transportation Expert Dix, and Housing Guru EBy. Thank God for Horgan he does he would not be required to find a Cabinet Post for Travel, Food, and Hotel Shadow Cabinet Member Jenny Kwan!

    I suppose most of us here have our subjective opinions of who is or who is not qualified to be Ministers in any B.C. Cabinet but I have always been a little suspect if those that go into Elected Office and that position happens to be the best position they have held in their lifetime.

    Personally I always feel that I would rather see someone with a that has a record of accomplishment rather than someone that is hoping to better themselves by seeking elected office.

    As an example I would put forward the current Vancouver City Council Members, how in the world are they leading what was once one of the Worlds great Cities. Crazy!

    Sorry I just do not see the talent in the NDP Shadow Cabinet. But then as I said 90% of those that Post on this Blog see no talent in the current Elected B.C. Liberal Government.

    Personally I like Carole James very much and felt she should have been offered the Speakers Job when Liberal Linda Reid got caught having her Snout far too deep into the Tax Payers Trough but because of Political Affiliations that would never have taken place. James was treated very poorly by Gutter Snipe Kwan and the rest and she deserved better.

    Having said that I cannot for the life of me see Ms James capable of being Finance Minister of B.C.!

    If not Ms James I must ask, Who Then?

    I might be edging off topic somewhat so I will not ask any questions about The NDP Election Platform until Harvey offers up the opportunity.

  • 38 nonconfidencevote // Apr 15, 2017 at 8:14 am

    @#35 SunWuKong

    I’d love to check out the compass poll but I couldnt open it and I dont belong to Facebook.

    “Anonymous poll” but you have to Login in to Facebook for the results?
    Anonymous? Seriously?

  • 39 Crankypants // Apr 15, 2017 at 8:52 am

    Noncon

    You can access Vote Compass by going to cbc.ca then select Canada then British Columbia. You will see a link on the right hand side of the BC main menu that you should be able to access.

  • 40 Lew // Apr 15, 2017 at 10:14 am

    Let’s look at the capability of a few BC Liberal cabinet members Christy has appointed.

    • Harry Bloy. Do I really have to say any more?
    • Amrik Virk. Demoted after being implicated in a scheme to funnel $100,000 in excess compensation to two senior Kwantlen Polytechnic University administrators, a scheme that violated government rules on executive compensation and disclosure. And there’s this: http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/299758621.html?mobile=true
    • Bill Bennett. BC’s Auditor General issued scathing report saying “Almost all of our expectations for a robust compliance and enforcement program were not met,” and “The compliance and enforcement activities of both the Ministry of Energy and Mines, and the Ministry of Environment are not set up to protect the province from environmental risks.” The worst mining spill in Canadian history happened on his watch (by a company headed by a guy who has donated millions to the BC Liberals) and the BC taxpayers are on the hook for $40 million in cleanup costs. BC Hydro under his watch has been virtually devastated financially and headed further into debt it can never repay to build a dam that isn’t required.
    • Mary Polak. See above audit report. Fiercely resisted justified and legitimate community concerns over her shameful approval of a toxic waste dump above Shawnigan Lake’s water supply until events finally overtook her and she was forced to pull the permit.
    • Michael de Jong. As Attorney General presided over illegal Basi/Virk payoff, and then told at least three contradictory stories about what happened. As Health Minister presided over the improper (to say the least) firings of eight researchers and tried to duck any responsibility. As Finance Minister presided over unprecedented increase in provincial debt and obligations and trots out “balanced”budgets that are a transparent sham to all but blind idealogues. https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/04/13/Clark-Debt-Free-BC/
    • Rich Coleman. His record on (non) LNG industry speaks for itself. On housing, he ridiculed the NDP in the Legislature for bringing up the growing problems being created by offshore investment in real estate right up until the crisis became so obvious his government was forced to act. Here are links to several boondoggles under his watch. https://thetyee.ca/News/2014/07/11/Audit-BC-Housing-Victoria/
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/auditor-general-s-report-slams-sale-of-forestry-lands-1.725266 http://thebreaker.news/miscellany/coleman-communications-control/ http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/rcmp-federal-unit-investigating-controversial-vancouver-land-swap

    • Christy Clark. Oh Boy. https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/04/10/BC-Liberal-Falsehoods-Scandals-Whole-List/

    It’s time for a change.

  • 41 DBW // Apr 15, 2017 at 10:43 am

    In a criticism of the NDP shadow cabinet @37 said

    I have always been a little suspect if those that go into Elected Office and that position happens to be the best position they have held in their lifetime.

    Personally I always feel that I would rather see someone with a that has a record of accomplishment rather than someone that is hoping to better themselves by seeking elected office.

    LOLOL That describes our current premier more than anybody in the NDP.

    Sometimes the straight jacket of ideology gets a little tight.

  • 42 212Degrees // Apr 15, 2017 at 11:20 am

    TV debate is scheduled for Wed. April 26th at 6:30 PM on Global, not April 29th as reported.

    http://globalnews.ca/news/3376707/where-to-send-your-questions-for-the-b-c-leaders-debate/

    (Response: Thanks …corrected. h.o)

  • 43 Gene The Bean // Apr 15, 2017 at 12:16 pm

    #40 – great post Lew, not that it will change the minds of the (edited..h.o.).

    #41 – best line I have read in awhile “Sometimes the straight jacket of ideology gets a little tight.”

    Well done, both of you.

    (Response: Let’s keep the political discourse adult pls. No need for insults …just because some disagree with your point of view. h.o)

  • 44 nonconfidencevote // Apr 15, 2017 at 12:56 pm

    @#39 Cranky
    Nope. Doesnt open.

  • 45 BMCQ // Apr 15, 2017 at 1:20 pm

    Lew – 40

    I am going to go out on a limb here and suggest that every Elected Government regardless of Political Brand has some Wins and some losses.

    I am also going to suggest that to make a mistake when managing a Government, a Corporation, or any other organization to make a mistake or actually have a successful record of accomplishment there some wins and losses along the way,

    I was simply suggesting that I would have more confidence in electing a Politician from any Party if they had a record of accomplishment at previous endeavors rather than someone with no record of accomplishments at all.

    Why would that logic cause for anyone that reads or posts here? I do not get it.

    When employeeing, electing, or appointing any individual to ant task I strongly believe that experience and a record of success and Education is important.

    I did state that because of who we support our opinions on qualifications may differ somewhat.

    I think you are being hard on Bill Bennett and Coleman, disasters happen in any Industry and or Ministry and it is time we git over the “Buck Stops Here” B.S.!

    I would suggest anyone here invest several Million Dollars in a Business that Employees many People or become A Minister of any Government Ministry, as the man said “S. Happens”.

    You want to blame a minister for a mistake, mistakes, or a series of events that caused a failure?

    Trust me Lew I do it every day and even the best System or Safeguards are not infallible!

    There is not a minute of any day that I personally am not concerned that something could happen that could affect my Business ventures or an accident could take place and injure an individual. I doubt if Coleman, Bennett, The Premier or any past NDP Minister has been any different.

    DBW – 41

    You seem to feel you have won some sort of a “Gotchya” moment with me earlier today. I hope you have amused yourself.

    I see it has resonated somewhat with one of the other Punters that contributes nothing of value, then again as long as you attack anything “Free Enterprise” some here will squeal with glee.

    Please re-read my post I gave full credit to Carole James and in fact suggested her as a potentially great “Speaker”. Did you miss that?

    I also would ask you to take a walk down “Memory Lane” and recall just how many of your Left Wing “Hit Tub” Mates stepped up and spoke in your favor when you were in Hot Water on this Blog.

    Not one you might correctly recall. And just who did speak up for you? Why if memory serves it was BMCQ was it not?

    I always find it interesting how those on the left that talk about “Freedom of Speech” are the first to deny that to those that support a Conservative point of view.

    I coined that phrase about the Straight Jacket and I stand by what I said, I am open to any point of view and my record on this Blog supports that fact.

    I have changed my mind several times since my arrival in July 2014 and i have been more than happy to admit a mistake, Lew will verify that fact as he provided factual information and or a good argument to prove me incorrect or to evolve on any given issue.

    As to Priemen CC? I understand you do not like her and in fact she is not my favourite but she st least was Education Minister, had other Government Responsibilities and she was a successful Media Member.

    Please provide the accomplishments and record of Leadership of Anarchist David Eby, Chandra, Dix, Horgan, and any other potential Minister.

    Who do you suggest for Health, Education, Finance, Economic Development, Mining, Forests, or any other?

    Sure come back at me with failures of the Libs if that makes you feel better but the “Great Unwashed” want to see what John Horgan and his NDP Minions have to offer!!

    We eagerly await your reply.

  • 46 Crankypants // Apr 15, 2017 at 3:14 pm

    Noncon

    If I select the link on my computer it brings up a page to either login to facebook or start. I select start and it brings up a page to input my postal code, press continue and it’s all systems go.

  • 47 Lew // Apr 15, 2017 at 4:54 pm

    BMCQ,

    I’m really surprised at your take on this.

    Your words seem to indicate that in your world ministerial accountability is a thing of the past. I know the BC Liberals would love that to be true and have certainly been acting like it throughout their time in office, but it will be a sad day when citizens of this province throw up their hands and say “s**t happens” with regard to our elected representatives and give them a pass on all manner of outrageous conduct. I’m not talking about issues beyond their control; I’m talking about deliberate courses of action that predictably have consequences clearly not in the public interest. Examples abound with the BC Liberals. Please stop characterizing their activities as mistakes.

    As for some arbitrary accomplishment threshold as a prerequisite for offering oneself for public service, I guess democracy is now out the window as well, is it? Good thing for Rich Coleman, Kevin Falcon, Shirley Bond, and others, including the current Premier that your cut line wasn’t in place when they first ran for office, or they might have been out of luck. I’d put Carole James’ record of accomplishment and public service up against any of their records prior to running for office any day. Why would you attack her credentials and potential and ignore the others?

    You provide a rationale for Christy Clark that includes (sic) “she st least was Education Minister, had other Government Responsibilities and she was a successful Media Member.” She indeed was Education Minister, and in 2002 launched an attack on public education that has lasted 15 years and was finally corrected by the Supreme Court Of Canada after her government fought it tooth and nail. An entire generation of students was deprived of learning supports and facilities because of her. Her media job was only possible because of name recognition from her previous government role.

    Now. Who had the better achievement record prior to running for provincial MLA? Christy Clark? Or Carole James?

  • 48 Harry lawson // Apr 15, 2017 at 5:26 pm

    The only poll that is accurate happens in a polling booth. The rest is conjecture. A question asked different ways can get a different result.

  • 49 DBW // Apr 15, 2017 at 6:45 pm

    I am sorry BMCQ, it is almost impossible to discuss anything with you.

    You criticize possible NDP cabinet members for a lack of accomplishment, yet when told that the same could be said of the Premier, you double down.

    According to you, her one accomplishment (besides being a media personality) was being a cabinet minister. So her accomplishment for being a cabinet minister was being appointed to cabinet. Eby Chandra, Farnsworth Dix and anybody else you wish to demean have more to offer a cabinet position than Clark did.

    In fact, her role as education minister was hardly stellar. Her great accomplishment was stripping the contract that was deemed illegal by the Supreme Court of Canada.

    And when Lew points out the many failings of the Clark appointed ministers, you claim he is “being hard on Bill Bennett and Coleman, disasters happen in any Industry and or Ministry and it is time we git over the “Buck Stops Here” B.S.!”

    Have you been that forgiving of Trudeau appointed ministers? No. Will you be that forgiving of NDP ministers. I doubt it.

  • 50 BMCQ // Apr 15, 2017 at 11:11 pm

    Again, from what I know of Carole James character I have a great deal of respect for and feel she would be qualified for several Cabinet Posts.

    We were discussing Shadow Cabinet and I do not see her or any other individual in that Party that I would have confidence in as Finance Minister.

    I also am of the opinion that they are lacking in possible candidates for Health, AG, and Economic Dev. Looking at the Shadow Cabinet makes me feel that they would struggle with that group.

    Yes, I am aware of Deputies and others in the Civil Service that are no doubt better equipped and qualified than many Elected Politicians and that is a great assist regardless of party.

    I happily admit that is more than likely the case in several Ministries in the current Liberal Government. I am quite confident we are fortunate to have those Deputies and other Senior Staffers.

    The “S**t Happens” comment was out of frustration and I do regret that. Of course Senior Staff and Ministers must behave within what is deemed acceptable and lawful.

    I just do not see a Minister of any Party being held up as guilty when something goes wrong in any Ministry unless it is willful and they are culpable beyond a doubt.

    It is far too easy and far too Political to blame a Minister for mistakes or mis-deeds made by Senior Staffers ir management.

    Another point of frustration for me is the fact that it is much too easy to blame Ministers because they may be a B.C. Liberal.

    I agree with you about “Deliberate Courses of Action”. That is not acceptable by any Government of any Party, that should go without saying.

    I do not agree with the argument about “A generation of Students being deprived”.

    Again, Education is 25% of the Provincial Budget and that Budget increases each year.

    Again there are over 70,000 fewer Students enrolled in the Public School System now as opposed to 15 years ago. Simple math tells me that translates into roughly 3,000 Home Room Teachers. And how many more do they want to hire?

    Again over 7,000 fewer Students in Vancouver proper.

    Again in the last few days of a disgraced NDP Government they opened up the Treasury to the BCTF. Was that the honorable thing to do?

    I have walked back a couple of my statements because it was correctly pointed out that I was over reaching and I am quite pleased to admit that.

    I now ask this of any one on this Blog.

    Can someone, anyone, that supports the NDP provide the names of who a new NDP Government should appoint as Ministers of Finance, Attorney General, Health, Education, and Economic Development?

    Yes there are other Ministries but I consider these key.

    I do not believe I will be required to be forgiving of any NDP Cabinet Ministers but one never knows for sure.

    In closing I would like to say that like many of you I was not and I am still not happy about the “Basi Virk” Fiasco.

    There should have been a full hearing and someone should have gone to jail.

    I still do not understand why the Government paid their Legal Fees as I understand that they should have first depleted their own personal finances for Legal Costs.

    The Tax Payer deserves answers on that file.

    As stated, we all have our own prejudices about any one individuals qualifucations to serve in Cabinet and on that we may never agree. Points taken.

  • 51 Hugh // Apr 16, 2017 at 9:01 am

    BC Provincial Debt and Contractual Obligations now total over $170 Billion.

    See Page 140 of the BC Budget :

    http://bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2017/bfp/2017_Budget_and_Fiscal_Plan.pdf

    See P. 5 of Contractual Obligations:

    http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/ocg/pa/13_14/Contractual_Obligations.pdf

  • 52 Marge // Apr 16, 2017 at 10:49 am

    @BCMQ You have a very poor perspective of education. The NDP did not open up the treasury to the BCTF. What they did is make the BCTF accept little or no salary increases during the period the NDP was in power. What they did ask for was smaller class sizes. This resulted in BC’s teachers being amongst the lowest paid in all of Canada (second last to NFLD at one point I believe). Then along came the oh so nasty new Minister of Education with a Liberal win by the name of Christy Clark. Despite her father having been a teacher (maybe some issues there who knows) she tore up the contract and did not give anything back in compensation. So the buck stops definitely at Ms. Clark’s doorstep for all he animosity with the teachers. So many strikes and so little monetary gain. In the end the BCTF went to court to win back the issue that you can’t tear up contracts willy nilly. Your Premier started this all rolling and the Supreme Court ended it. In the end the only group that won was the kids – not the teachers. There was no extra money going into their wallets at the end of the day. Only more teachers signed on to help. Now considering the present makeup of classrooms it is no wonder that the extra help is needed. Perhaps a teacher or two here can please enlighten you as to what comprises a classroom today. It is not a homogenous mixture of middle class white kids with nice homes. It is a mixture of learning disabled with gifted, autistic with special needs, refugees not speaking a word of English in a high school class, etc. etc. As a grandmother of a disabled child, I know only too well what goes on to provide an education for her. As a mother of a teacher, I know only too well what behaviors go on in classrooms these days. Teaching is not for the faint of heart anymore. You need a strong constitution and many hands to help. Get over it BCMQ and talk to teachers out there in the mainstream. Your child was educated privately – how lucky he was. Most kids are not and have to endure large classrooms of multi-facetted problems. It’s not always pretty.

  • 53 Lew // Apr 16, 2017 at 11:28 am

    Any thought that John Horgan won’t be able to fill a cabinet with capable individuals is grounded in something other than reality. He has many options that come with backgrounds that indicate an ability to manage and direct organizations, certainly at a level equal or above those demonstrated by current cabinet members when they were first elected.

    • Mike Farnworth has held several cabinet portfolios in government including Minister of Health. Match his credentials with current health minister Lake.
    • Bruce Ralston has degrees in history and law from UBC and has chaired the Legislature’s Select Standing Committee on Public Accounts since 2009. He also sat on the Finance Committee for seven years. Match his credentials with current finance minister de Jong.
    • Carole James was leader of the Official Opposition and had a very strong career in public education. Match her credentials with current education minister Bernier.
    • David Eby is adjunct professor of law at the University of British Columbia and also has served as president of the Canadian HIV/AIDS Legal Network and as a research associate with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. He worked at Pivot Legal Society from 2003 to 2008 in Vancouver’s Downtown Eastside before becoming the executive director of the British Columbia Civil Liberties Association from 2008 until 2012. Compare his credentials with current AG Suzanne Anton.
    • BC doesn’t have an Economic Development minister per se but elements of that initiative can be found in ministries headed by Shirley Bond and Coralee Oakes. Please don’t anyone say there are not individuals in the shadow cabinet with backgrounds equal to or better suited than those two.

    There is another ministry that is very important to the citizens of BC and that is the Ministry of Children and Family Development. Melanie Mark has a degree in political science at Simon Fraser University, served for six years as the president of the Urban Native Youth Association, worked for eight years in the Office of the Representative for Children and Youth, and was promoted to deputy representative to Mary Ellen Turpel-Lafond. Compare her credentials to those of current minister Stephanie Cadieux.

    As I said previously, too much is made of this aspect, but if anyone really wants to go there, our current Premier should never have been appointed Deputy Premier and Minister of Education by Gordon Campbell. She shouldn’t have been, of course, but that has far more to do with character than credentials.

  • 54 Gordon Stewart // Apr 16, 2017 at 1:52 pm

    I notice that commentary has changed from mostly political to sometimes personal. As a change of pace , may I suggest everyone take the time to read Rafe Mair’s last three excellent and articulate articles in his Blog or The Commonsense Canadian; In-Sights by Norm Farrell, 15 April, where he quotes a draft memo by Pamela Martin to Liberal Party workers( astonishing); Eric Andersen’s, Economist, Open Letter to BC Energy Minister, July 2o13, regarding BC Hydro’s Runaway Debt. I would also like to ask the NDP Planners why they have not commented, to my knowledge, about BC’s massive debt load under the Liberals so we don’t have to listen to Christy’s mantra JOBS, JOBS,JOBS. I paraphrase from some of Rafe’s articles as well as my own reading.

    1. The Real Provincial Debt load has doubled in 4 years, while Christy pretends to balance the budget each year.

    2.The BC Auditor General reported on the 101Billion Debt of Contingent and Contractual Obligations. Also we are the most indebted province in Canada.(page 40 Auditor General report dated Feb 2017).

    3. The BC Hydro will increase debt by Billions if the Site C is built.

    4.AS reported in BC Public Accounts, BC’s Liabilities and Contractual Obligations compared to NDP

    March 2001 NDP 40 Billion Liberals March 2016 185 Billion.

    Please remind Christy that her JOBS,JOBS routine will pale compared to the problem our kids and grandkids will face paying for all this, while the Liberals are enjoying their fat pensions.

    (Response: I’m not sure why, but the growing debt ….provincially and federally …doesn’t seem to get much attention …although it could spell doom for us ..at least those who follow us …down the road. Maybe there aren’t enough media reporters and analysts who realize the implications: after all, it’s much more colourful for politicians to announce and the media report all kinds of new spending and projects. h.o.)

  • 55 Harry lawson // Apr 16, 2017 at 4:05 pm

    BCMQ# 50

    First of all I agree that we are fortunate to have many of the senior staffers we have. The job is tough and the hours are long , yet it should be about administration not politics. That is for the politictions .

    A cabinet minister is like the head coach of a sports team , if the issues cannot be fixed bring in a new minister.

    For me it is the issues and behaviours regarding the files not the party.

    How many time can one forgive a party on a mishandled issue before one is a hypocrite .

    integrity takes a lifetime to earn and a action to lose

  • 56 BMCQ // Apr 16, 2017 at 8:34 pm

    Marge – 52

    I always wonder why people use the Christ Clark Father issues thing, If was to comment about that and say use a Joy McPhail Father connection every PC SOB right across Canada would demand my Head on a Platter.

    I am much like many B.C. Residents, I have friends and family that are BCTF Members and as with anything else our own personal connections should not influence our opinions.

    What if you had relatives that were Federal Con or B.C., would you allow that to affect your opinions?

    Yes my 27 year old Son attended Vancouver College and it was a great decision, we are blessed he was able to attend. Amongst other things It was wonderful to avoid the Politics. I am told there was an average of 27 Pupils per class.

    FYI, there were Special Needs Students in attendance and there were plenty of ESL Students, as a matter of fact even more ESL Students today.

    Many Chinese, Korean, Filipino, Indian, and an assortment of others including my Son who is a Pacific Islander. Not many Blondes running the Campus Marge!

    Lew – 53

    I get it and i understand what your opinion is but I still wonder about Farnworth who only lasted in Health for a short while and he is only masquerading as an AG critic.

    You know my feeling about Eby who I feel is an Anarchist, I urge anyone that is interested to research his behavior toward Law Enforcement and the Rule of Law and you would conclude the same.

    As to Children? Perhaps you have a winner there but until First Nations Parents and Leadership are held accountable to the Laws of Canada we are literally pissing the lives of our precious FN Children down the drain. Throwing more money at the problem is not the answer.

    Contrary to popular belief METL was obstructionist, far too political and in fact worked against a solution. Children are better off without her, time for someone else to advocate for Children, someone that is not interested on political games.

    Gordon – 54

    If memory serves it is Ontario that is the Worlds Largest Sub-Soverign Debtor.

    Again we must look at the type of debt. Would you rather see commuters do without the New Port Mann, Canada Line, Evergreen Line, B.C. Place Stadium, Richmond Oval, Aea to Sky Hwy, Hwy 1 expansion?

    As to Site “C”? I wonder who would be the first to go into “Meltdown if in 10 years we were told that B.C. Was in a “Power Defecit”?

    Are you aware of the population growth we have experienced over the past 20 years? Are you aware of the population growth B.C. Is expecting over the next 25 years?

    Are you willing to take that chance? Yes we should have Fixed Contract Pricing and Past Governments have been derilect but Site “C” is the right choice.

    Harry – 55

    I understand how you, Lew, and others feel on this but I cannot see the sense of firing the Minister for poor decisions made by any given Department Head who made poor management decisions unless it can be shown that the Minister was complicate.

    As an example in my opinion (which is not worth much around here) as i stated up the page the Ministry of Children is unfixable unless certain demands and conditions are met and there is accountability from ALL so called Interested Parties.

    We cannot keep blaming the Coach when Case Workers are threatened with physical harm by First Nations Leaders and denied access to Children on FN Reservations!

    Sometimes Integrity needs an assist from our Elected Law Makers that need to demand more from certain segments of Society.

    But then that is a Federal issue.

    Why not ask those people just how they feel about that Debt?

  • 57 BMCQ // Apr 17, 2017 at 6:44 am

    Something else for Voters to consider.

    I am away and frankly relieved not to be listening to CKNDP and I must admit I have not seen a lot of the Sun and Province as I am not an on-line subscriber so I will ask the question here.

    Has Mr. Horgan, the B.C. NDP commented at all on their stance on the NDP Leap Manifesto?

    What about anyone here on the Harvey Blog, are you comfortable with the rush to do away with the up to 200,000 plus job losses?

    And just what kind of jobs will replace those well paying, Tax Paying, family supporting jobs?

    Unfortunately Good Ideas like those proposed by the Architects of the Manifesto always promise do not always materialize.

    And just kind of jobs might materialize from the so-called New Economy?

    Would you, or would you want your Children or Granchildren wanting to take “The Leap” and “Go all in” and vote for an NDP That supports the Leap Manifesto?

    What about potential Union and Non Union Blue Collar Workers, their Spouses and Children, I wonder how the Manifesto will affect their Vote?

    If Harvey allows I for one would be very interested in hearing from NDP Boosters on this Blog.

    I do not want to jump to conclusions but from where I now sit far from Vancouver I have heard nothing about “Leap”.

  • 58 13 // Apr 17, 2017 at 7:07 am

    Marge I can see your take on the teachers not getting more money but the kids get more teachers. Its not easy but if you can stand back and look at that as someone that is not a teacher it still looks like the public is spending more money on education. Not trying to argue that teachers are over/underpaid. The education system is receiving more money. Perhaps the BCTF has not done enough to address wages. One might argue that they were preoccupied fighting the BC Liberals over the contract awarded by the NDP in their dying days and that might be true. As an outsider that stood by and watched that prolonged fight over that contract I was never really convinced that the public was onside with the BCTF.
    At any rate the supreme court ended the battle in somewhat record breaking speed. What I read into that is outgoing governments should not be allowed to sign contracts with public sector workers that appear to reward their power base.

  • 59 DBW // Apr 17, 2017 at 8:08 am

    I know this is a bit off topic but I would like to ask BMCQ where he gets his 25% of the budget for education.

    The best I can find is this

    5.9B out of a budget of around 50B or 12%.

    http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-education-budget-boosted-to-cover-court-win-rising-enrolment

    On top of that education funding as a percentage of GDP has declined over the past several years.

    http://www.policynote.ca/education-crisis/

    I am not trying to argue anything here. Just need to know the correct information.

  • 60 nonconfidencevote // Apr 17, 2017 at 9:14 am

    @#57 BMCQ

    The CKNDP….

    Good one….. :)

  • 61 Scotty on Denman // Apr 17, 2017 at 10:18 am

    BMCQ:

    One of the things I’ve been impressed with about John Horgan is that he responds immediately to issues—unfortunately, MSM makes sure all we ever hear of him between elections is response to baseless smears. Christy’s totally unfounded accusation of NDP hacking is a case in point. The NDP’s previous leader might very well have ignored it after a tepid denial; Horgan, in contrast, took her to task so quickly and forcefully (he threatened to sue), she ended up wasting a week dithering about her own response—apparently taken by surprise because the NDP didn’t do aggressive in the last election; worse for Christy was the fact that her so-called “apology” was deliciously indicative of her questionable ethical character. Uncharacteristic is her relative quiescence ever since.

    But that’s only the most recent thing that happened to make it into MSM news, try as it did to smear the BC NDP with the federal NDP’s discussion of the Leap Manifesto. Horgan’s response—yes, you might have missed it, for the usual reasons—was to condemn the Leap Manifesto. Yes, condemn it in no uncertain terms. Let me paraphrase: ‘the BC NDP is pro-resource development, we do not subscribe to the Leap Manifesto. We are going to develop and ship our resources realistically, unlike the BC Liberals’ LNG pipe-dream.”

    Yes, Christy tried to say otherwise and I guess her operatives and shills were instructed to do the same, but it doesn’t fly very long because, of course: Horgan’s condemnation is handy for anyone who cares to look, and he’s happy to articulate it at any moment.

    You might have also missed that Horgan said he’s all for pipelines—just not the twinning of Kinder Morgan because of the seven-fold increase of tanker traffic through congested shipping lanes in the centre of BC’s population centre. Note he didn’t demand the existing conventional KM pipeline be shut down, just that the bitumen/dilbit twin pipeline (needed to send the diluent that allows bitumen to flow through pipes back to Albetar to dissolve more tar) and the attendant increased risk/pollution of the KM expansion—from which very little revenue accrues to BC—simply not be approved.

    Christy has tried to link Leap Manifesto with the BC NDP, but it doesn’t float. Just like bitumen.

  • 62 Lew // Apr 17, 2017 at 2:50 pm

    BMCQ,

    Here is Mr. Eby’s take on the law as it applies to citizens’ rights. Remember, the law, and the police are supposed to work for us. They only have the power in a democracy that we choose to give them. What part of Mr. Eby’s book do you take issue with?

    https://bccla.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/2009-BCCLA-Handbook-Arrest-Handbook-English.pdf

    You say regarding Mary Ellen Terpel- Lafond that (sic) “Children are better off without her, time for someone else to advocate for Children, someone that is not interested on political games.” You can’t be allowed to just throw that out there without an explanation. It implies that Ms Terpel-Lafond was not properly representing children, which was her mandate, and that the government was prevented in some way BY HER from doing what was in the best interests of the children of this province.

    She held the position of Representative for 10 years, and during her tenure released nearly 100 reports and 200 recommendations to help improve the lives of BC’s most vulnerable young people. What, specifically, did she do to obstruct (your word) the BC Liberal government from doing for those children what they otherwise would have done in the children’s best interests but for her?

  • 63 r // Apr 17, 2017 at 10:12 pm

    wake up BC

    https://www.desmog.ca/2017/04/17/b-c-quietly-grants-mount-polley-mine-permit-pipe-mine-waste-directly-quesnel-lake

  • 64 BMCQ // Apr 18, 2017 at 8:17 am

    DBW – 59

    Nothing wrong with arguing, argument, discussion, and debate is in my opinion the best way to learn what other people are thinking, change ones own mind or opinion on a topic, or even just evolve somewhat. I experience that almost every month or even more often when I read this Blog.

    The problem the way I see it is those here that only see it one way and demand or verything “Progressive”. Juvenile.

    I am under the impression Health is about 45% and Education 22%, you may very well be correct and I will not use the 25% number until confirmed. I now you well enough that I have full confidence in your number.

    Even so, Bith would represent close to 60% and both are growing and will grow at an alarming rate. We are only seeing the beginning of the Opioid Crisis and it is not only the deaths we need to worry about, eventually we will see a crippling of a very large segment of our society. Our ageing population, Refugees, family reunification with Migrants and all others coming into our country many who have had literally bo medical care in a lifetime, and of course not just you and me eventually but the Immigrants that bring in their Wobbly Old Parents that require Knees, Hips, Kidney, Lung with lots being Smokers, Heart, care and surgeries of various types.

    Regardless of who we have in Ottawa or B.C. Of our Cities we must prepare and plan properly and I do not see that under a Federal Liberal Government or a B.C. NDP Government.

    No the Libs are not perfect but are you willing to roll the dice?

    NonCon – 60

    I really do not care what CKNDP do as I now only listen to the 5:00AM Newscast, Palmer, Smyth, Bruce, Michael Campbell on Audio Vault, and some JILL Bennett who I find is very balanced.

    My concern with the others is they have a weak veiled attempt to appear balanced and that offends me, Christ those Mensa Members on McComb are still fighting tha past Nov US Election, who do they think they are, CNN?

    Scotty – 61

    Look
    I actually like Horgan and under differences I could see myself voting for him, I am very suspect about some of their Policies and Growth of Government, we cannot afford to go the way of the EU or we cannot afford to take our Country or Province down the same Rabbit Hole “O” took the US for 8 years.

    Horgan leads a “Split Party” that has a big divide between the Enviros, the Public Sector Workers and the more pragmatic Union and Non Union Blue Collar Workers he is losing and it is a no win situation for him.

    Like Carole James In the past I feel those on the Left on this Blog are being unreasonable when they criticize Horgan he is stuck between a rock and………

    Lew – 62

    My dislike of Eby goes back to the day before the 2010 Olympics when he made the big announced that he and his CL Group would be filming the Police who would carry out Police Brutality on Anarchists that planned to create chaos at the opening. That evening Eby received a call from the Anarchists who asked him not to Film as the Cops would seize the Fil Footage and use it in Court for the Prosecution of the Anarchists. Eby was happy to lay down his Camera. Once upon a time when CKNDP actually took Phone Calls I was able to be the First Call into Eby when he appeared on Simi Sara, I was able to get the question out, I was cut off, they went to break without taking another call, came back after the break and he was gine from the Studio, She then continued on like he was never there.

    I may never be able to have respect for Eby, if that is a flaw in my character so be it.

    METL

    I feel she started out OK but she eventually became far too Political and in fact took every opportunity to vilify the Government and the Minister. Of course the Government made mistakes in Children and yes individual Case Workers made grievous errors but trust me that happens in that Ministry under any Party.

    I believe METL took the easy way to blame Gov and missed the opportunity to pressure First Nations Leadership and Parents to be more proactive and act before Children were put at greater risk than necessary.

    METL should have spoken out in the MSM more about the responsibility of FN Leadership and FN Parents and Other Family Members that could play a roll in assisting in Child Care and the actually protection of those Children.

    Only a few months ago I was at a FN Celebration of Life for a life long friends Mother and much of this was discussed. It was eye opening.

    My Wife’s Father was Metis and when they lived in Alberta they took over 10 FN Children as Foster Children, they have stories for sure.

    I am not saying METL was not qualified, I am saying she missed a huge opportunity to bring the whole issue before the people, create a discussion, demand more from FN Leadership, Parents, and take a big step to making things better.

    Instead she chose to make aggravate the situation, alienate much of the general public and and in my opinion makes things more difficult.

    I wish her successor the best of luck, he seems more willing to be more constructive than obstructive.

    Sometimes all we have are opinions Le w, I dot expect you to necessarily agree but you were correct etc to ask me to explain.

  • 65 Lew // Apr 18, 2017 at 11:37 am

    BMCQ,

    Attorney General Eby will grow on you. Subject of course to a minor detail like the coming election.

    From Ms. Turpel-Lafond’s bio. “Mary Ellen Turpel was the youngest of four girls born to an ethnic Scottish mother and Cree father in Niagara Falls, Ontario. She grew up in poverty, enduring harsh physical mistreatment, and lived with domestic violence and alcoholism in her home. Her upbringing was similar to that of many of the indigenous children she has since encountered through her work.” “Turpel-Lafond holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Carleton University, a law degree from Osgoode Hall, a master’s degree in international law from the University of Cambridge, and a doctorate of law from Harvard Law School. She also studied the International Comparative Law of Human Rights at the University of Strasbourg.” “…her second husband George Lafond, who is a former Vice-Chief and Tribal Chief of the Saskatoon Tribal Council.”

    This article touches on her efforts re aboriginal issues:
    http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/the-end-of-an-outspoken-era-turpel-lafond-wraps-up-10-years-of-child-advocacy

    Ted Hughes, who recommended the province establish the Representative’s office, had this to say of her:
    “You don’t often write reports offering praise and pointing out the good things that have been done and there have been a lot of good things being done,” said Hughes. “But because of the fact that she is there to improve the system by shining the spotlight on areas that need improvement the office is seen to be at times confrontational to government.”

    She made 200 recommendations, and the government said it accepted them all. She doesn’t deserve to leave this province with people throwing stones after her and shouting that the children will be better off without her. Now Christy Clark, on the other hand…

  • 66 BMCQ // Apr 18, 2017 at 2:26 pm

    Lew – 65

    Thank you for the info on Turpel-Lafontaine, I have read the same 3 times over the past several years.

    I have no doubt that she was a very good choice and perhaps the best choice for the job of Children’s Advocate and I am in fact sure she did a lot of good, especially with her recommendations which the Government accepted.

    Again only my opinion but she became very political, difficult, and in fact obstructionist.

    Her early background and her resume served her well but as time went on she seemed to be more against Government than for the Children.

    If memory serves I even believe her relationship with Mr. Hughes even soured. He had great respect and a fondness for the Advicate and offered to help repair her relationship with the Ministry but she rejected him.

    I do not pretend to understand the cause of the breakdown with the Government or Hughes but I do know things went sideways and the situation became intolerable for all concerned.

    Yes there must be transparency and discussion but I believe she became too political.

    Again Lew only my opinion.

    What saddens me on this whole METL issue is that in the beginning I think she was the correct person for the job but somehow the “Train went off the Tracks”.

    I can only hope and pray that the new Advocate and the Government can take her recommendations and improve the life of the many At risk Children of B.C.

  • 67 SkanerSoft // Apr 18, 2017 at 4:58 pm

    Higher housing prices and renewed foreign buyer interest are a huge challenge for the BC Liberals, because several polls say the most important issue in this election is affordable housing — and increasingly the province doesn’t have any.

    (Response: The question though is what would/could any of the parties legally and practically do in a free society to stop people from moving here, buying here … or getting as high a price as possible when they sell. h.o.)

  • 68 e.a.f. // Apr 18, 2017 at 7:49 pm

    HARVEY in your response to #67, we could simply not permit non citizens and non residents to own land in Canada as they do in other countries or we could restrict what they own. Don’t live here, you don’t own here . its that easy. leaving so many homes vacant destroys neighbourhoods. In Indian unless you are a citizen you don’t own land. In China you can own an apartment but not a house, its really easy, we just don’t want to do it because governments are supported by people who benefit from this real estate game.

    (Response: Title of this blog is Keeping it Real. Your suggestion will NEVER happen in Canada. Read my response to BCMQ … that’s a realistic, expensive to government …BUT a possible way to go that could really help many. h.o)

  • 69 BMCQ // Apr 18, 2017 at 8:32 pm

    Skaner – 67

    Affordable Housing is high on the list for all of the people of B.C., some younger people want to purchase homes and some want affordable rental units. Same thing for middle aged, and same thing for elderly.

    The saddest fact about the want and desire for less costly housing either rental or purchase is the fact those days are over.

    As a wise person once said,”The Horse is already out of the Barn and the Barn Door is slammed shut”!

    Contrary to what many opposition Politicians and MSM are attempting to sell this is and always a Federal Issue and a succession of Liberal and Conservatives were asleep at the switch when Foreign Investors began to come to Canada.

    Those Federal Liberal and Conservative Governments were given information that showed them what could and did happen to Housing in places like YVR, Vancouver proper and GTA and they ignored that advise and just wanted the Foreign Investment to fuel our economy and bring in Revenues for all three Levels of Government.

    They were well aware that prices would climb and they more or less turned a “Blind Eye” until the price gained so much momentum it was too late.

    There steps that could have been taken even 10 years ago but Political Correctness got in the way and we are now suffering the fall out of poor Government Management and we can unfortunately turn the Clock back.

    Even today Politicians from all Parties and all three levels of Government will not talk abou what could and should have been done.

    All they can do is mumble about Affirdable Housing but they have no real solutions.

    If they want to at least assist in a way that would help immediately they should recognize that Permits, Zoning, Licensing, Regulations, and Property Taxes are causing the cost of Housing to climb through the Roof and they need to act now.

    Time to make Government at ALL Three Levels more efficient and time to make Government Ministries and Departments more accountable.

    Now it is time for MSM to ask the tough questions of both the Provincial Liberals and the NDP SPECIFICS on just what their respective Platforms have to offer.

    The Key Word here is Specifics.

    (Response: The reality is there is very little governments can do in a supply/demand private property economy to provide massive amounts of housing. Especially when so much of government budgets/spending goes to health care, debt and infrastructure. But none of them want to admit that. About the only improvement they could really do that would help middle class buyers would be to make mortgage interest/fees on a primary occupied home tax deductible … but again, the budgetary impact would be substantial. h.o.)

  • 70 BMCQ // Apr 19, 2017 at 11:01 am

    Seems that the I Pad I am using has a mind of its own. Certainly did not intend to say MET Lafontaine.