Keeping it Real…

By this time next year, Stephen Harper will have announced he is stepping down … or members of his own party (and their media allies) will be pressuring him to do so.

That is what is clear to me after observing the Prime Minister’s dismal performance since being returned, ironically, with a strengthened minority government.  Since then Harper has done everything possible to show even his supporters they were wrong to have placed their confidence in him.

Smart man? Hard to believe that anymore.

After all, let’s face it: Harper was made a fool of by Quebec voters … milking him for years for increased recognition and power and prestige ..and, of course, billions of dollars in extra federal largesse while dangling before him the carrot of increased seats and majority government. He bit, they dined, and then they skipped out on the cheque.

Harper should have known all along, xenophobic francophone Quebecois will NEVER opt for an Anglo Albertan over a “pure-lain” local boy. His failure to understand that was the first serious wound to his political future.

And then there was the fiscal fiasco … the arrogance and stupidity of the man was front and centre once more, to think he could take advantage of Canada’s serious economic crisis to score political gains and wound the opposition.

That fiscal blunder showed me …  and I suspect many, many Canadians … that this Prime Minister was foolish enough or uncaring enough to apparently ignore the urgency of the plight of the rest of us and our spiralling economy, perilous job situations and devastated retirement savings situtations …  to slip in anti-labour, anti-civil service and anti-democratic legislation, all aimed at weakening his opponents (real and perceived).

And then there was the outright Big Lie in the fiscal update: Canada would continue to see a budgetary  SURPLUS in the coming year. What kind of fools do they take us for? Apparently, pretty big ones! But they were wrong.

Reality, persistent media doubts and questions and shouts of incredulity from financial institutions and experts finally forced the government .. get it? FORCED the government … to tell the truth: there will be budgetary deficits for YEARS ahead … even double digit deficits. The liars were unmasked. 

And Harper can’t blame his cabinet for any of this: Canadians know Harper is a one-man show, surrounded by “Yes” men and women. And he not only does not tolerate dissent; he seems even afraid to let his ministers or bureaucrats openly express themselves.

In 38 years of reporting, I never  encountered government cabinet ministers … and also so many government officials … as afraid or unwilling to give interviews or  answer questions … unless dealing with an issue the government wanted to get its point out.

And Harper was the first prime minister to literally barr reporters and camera crews from even the hallway outside his Parliamentary offices, where they often snared clips or scrums from arriving or departing cabinet ministers, government or business types. No open government here!

The only thing that turned Harper away from his dictatorial dealings in Parliament (did he forget he led a minority government?) was the incredible and somewhat ludicrous likelihood that a Liberal/NDP conspiracy … sorry, coalition … backed by the separatists was actually preparing to defeat him and try to seize power.  

So, like all good bullies, he backed down when faced by greater numbers.

And now, along has come new Liberal leader Ignatieff: glib, confident, an intellectual, and certainly more charming, more compassionate and at least seemingly more sincere than Harper (who would not be!).

Give it a year. Watch Ignatieff gain public attention, score political points (will not be difficult now in Opposition now against Harper) and move up in the polls. And watch Harper weaken.

The Prime Minister’s basic problem with Canadian voters has always been one of “trust”. We just don’t believe what he says and many have long feared he has a “secret” agenda that we would only come to know about … and some would suffer under… if he ever gained a majority.

Harper’s actions in recent months have only CONFIRMED those fears.  He certainly has done nothing to alleviate anyone’s suspicions. His fiscal plan, his closing Parliament, his lies about a coming surplus will be his achiles heel.

It’s all over for Stephen Harper’s dream of ever achieving a majority government.

And Monday, Harper will once more desert his own principles … and APPOINT 18 new Senators … a patronage move to reward partisan loyalty and bolster Conservative political power in the Senate. The Liberals would do the same if they could, and always have when in power, but Harper vowed to be different and support an elected Senate. So much for that! Reality rules. 

All this will lower the chances Harper will even be returned with a minority government, against Ignatieff, if an election is delayed for a year or so and Ignatieff can capture the confidence of Canadians.

Yes, by this time next year, Harper will be facing his political retirement … willingly or unwillingly.

Harv Oberfeld