Liberals/Conservatives in Dead Heat: NDP/Green Voters Can Decide if Trudeau or O’Toole Will Be Prime Minister

Campaigns may be about policies, issues and promises … but Elections are about numbers.

And this federal election, according to the latest Leger poll, is a DEAD HEAT nationally … 32% voter support each for the Liberals and the Conservatives in the race to form Government.

The NDP is trailing at 20% nationwide; the People’s Party of Canada 5%; and, the Greens 3%.

Those three smaller parties have absolutely NO chance of winning … this time, but their VOTERS can exercise tremendous power this election!

Canada’s next Prime Minister WILL BE Trudeau or O’Toole.

But traditional supporters of these trailing parties … by strategically voting Liberal or Conservative in ridings where the two parties are polling neck and neck … can be the ones who will DECIDE whether Trudeau will be sent packing or be given another term in office.

They have power like never before.

In BC, the Leger numbers show the Conservatives are ahead, with 33% voter support; the Liberals 31% (statistically also a dead heat); while the NDP is drawing 28% support; the Greens 4%; and the People’s Party 4%.

But will it be another Liberal minority … or a new Conservative minority?

NDP/Green voters can impact which of the Leaders their own Leader/MPs will get to work with after Sept. 20.

How? By (even if it requires holding their noses) marking their ballots for the Tory or Liberal candidate in close ridings, where their own flagbearers have no realistic chance of winning!

It’s power politics! And it works!

Because which party forms the minority government could be determined by just one or two riding victories.

As I wrote about earlier, Quebec voters exercise strategic voting all the time … and have financially benefitted and also been very well rewarded with power in Ottawa British Columbians have never matched. http://harveyoberfeld.ca/blog/conservative-minority-government-better-for-bc/

THIS is our chance!

It’s pretty clear, Canada will have another minority government.

With a dead heat nationally … BC voters are being offered the power to decide the outcome: Trudeau or O’Toole.

All they have to do is be brave enough to exercise it!

And make Canadian political history.

Harv Oberfeld

(Reminder: You can get FREE First Alerts to new topics on this Blog by following @harveyoberfeld on Twitter.)

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29 Responses to Liberals/Conservatives in Dead Heat: NDP/Green Voters Can Decide if Trudeau or O’Toole Will Be Prime Minister

  1. Chuckstraight says:

    It will likely always be a minority with FPTP. My hope is the Conservatives receive lots of votes, and less seats than the Liberals, just like the last election.

  2. Keith says:

    What you lay out Harvey would be the best outcome but could there be more NDP voters this time around because they saw the influence the NDP had last time and want to ensure they get back to that. Strategic or disaffected liberal or green voters not voting tory no matter what.? By voting NDP, the voter may still get what some of they want and believe in. By voting green there isn’t a chance of getting what you believe in.

    The greens are intriguing, will they even get a seat after all the internal front and back stabbing.? Should have been an election the greens could have done well in with the west on fire, floods and hurricanes, if they couldn’t get it together for this election can they ever.? And their present 3 seats could be going conservative.

    Will Jenica Atwin – Fredricton that crossed to the liberals get re-elected. She won that seat as a green by about 1600 votes with the conservative in second place .

    Will they hold on to the seat in Nanaimo – Ladysmith they took with Paul Manly by about 6200 votes with the conservative in second place.

    I’m not so sure that Elizabeth May will hold on to her seat in Saanich-Gulf Islands, previously held by conservative Gary Lund. The voters won’t be voting for a popular party leader, but a now obscure back bencher. In every election she has run in Saanich-Gulf Islands a conservative came in second, she beat them all handily but I’m not sure this time.

    (Response: Let’s keep it real: if I was an NDP voters this time (have voted NDP both federally and provincially occasionally in the past) I would look at what’s happening in my own riding … and if it looks like the NDP candidate could indeed win, I would vote NDP. BUT if the NDP is running a clear third, I would realize I have the POWER to decide who will be the next PM/government by shifting this time to Liberal or Conservative, whoever I would prefer in government or out. That would make MY vote really count! h.o)

  3. Not sure says:

    There are 42 ridings in BC. According to 338, 32 of them are either considered safe or likely. So I didn’t bother looking them up. 7 are leaning. And 3 are tossups. So I gave them a peak.

    Of the seven leaning ridings, 4 are favouring the Liberals and 3 the CPC. In six of them the NDP are in third. If the NDP followed your advice, more than likely all six of those seats would become Liberal. Is that what you want? A Liberal majority!

    In the seventh leaning the third place party is the CPC. Shouldn’t they be voting NDP in hopes that the Liberals lose one more seat. (Why just focus on Green and NDP supporters changing their vote?)

    In the three tossups, two of those the Liberals have absolutely no hope. Shouldn’t they be voting NDP so CPC loses an opportunity to hold or gain a seat. (Again why single out the Greens and NDP)

    The third tossup is a virtual three way tie.

    Strategic voting is interesting and I am not saying that I am opposed to it. But if we are wanting this to be a two team race, one of the leading parties will form a majority which is for me the worst possible outcome. And especially for you as it would most certainly be a Liberal majority.

    (Response: Based on what’s going on elsewhere in the country, I can’t see a Liberal majority..no matter what we do in BC. But if your figures are correct (thanks for the research) the impact of NDP voters in third-place ridings could indeed be important if they switched this time to impact who actually wins each riding. I hope they exercise that power to vote Conservative …for a change. I’m not an enthusiastic Tory supporter ..but I just don’t think Trudeau/Libs deserve another term for many reasons. h.o)

  4. D. M. Johnston says:

    I have been debating with myself to do, what I would have thought, the undoable and that is vote conservative as a protest against both the NDP and the Liberals.

    My gorge rises with the thought of doing this, but both the NDP with their program of hate of the establishment; the environment; of the very people that should be their support and the Liberals, who have made corruption almost acceptable in Canada, I have no other choice, other than spoil the ballot.

    All the politcal party platforms are stale as can be. There is no new programs, rather a continued spending spree on politically prestigious monuments for themselves.

    I have no faith in the Conservatives to do the right thing, rather I very much believe Trudeau and Singh will do far more damage to the country than O’Toole.

    Thus I am 99% sure that I will hold my nose and cast a blue ballot for a future MP, which I do know will be no better than the Liberal or NDP candidate.

    (Response: Many, many times I have voted … not so much because I favour the leading opponent, but because I just want to get the incumbent out. I rationalize it by saying the incumbent had a chance … and failed: so why keep the job, the perks, the power? At least let someone else try ..and if the results aren’t better, toss that bum out next time. But maybe it WILL be an improvement. h.o)

  5. Stu de Baker says:

    Keith; regarding Elizabeth May.
    I’m in her riding and am unsure of the temperament here right now. The old timers, who have strongly supported her, were, surprisingly to me, out to the advance vote in huge numbers.

    The CPC candidate has failed more than once at the local level, lives on an island and has difficulty making meetings. But there are a lot of Alberta and Ontario transplants since the last election. In this short campaign, he has been spanked twice for bad behavior.

    The second try NDP youngster with potential and the acclaimed Liberal candidate are untested in politics and mostly unknown. It really is hard to sense the local mood, but I think “strategic” might play out over loyalties.

    So many principles should stop me from voting Liberal; for a long time.

    I could have voted for Eli May and been safe, because I believe she will squeak back in. But I didn’t. I held my nose and went Liberal, to block the Conservatives. The angst I now live with is being part of a group which may have ensured a Liberal majority.

    I don’t recall ever being so unhappy, or uneasy about an election.

    (Response: A good example of strategic voting … and your vote will hold much more weight (than just voting in May again) in determining who becomes PM and forms government…. and who does not. Very powerful expression of democracy. h.o)

  6. e.a.f. says:

    Strategic voting, ah yes. It can work and some may decide to do that. It can make sense, especially if you live in a riding where it will matter and you don’t like one of the major parties. Would I vote Liberal instead of NDP? If I knew the NDP wasn’t going to win and a Conservative or Green might, yes, I’d hold my nose/breath and vote strategically. Would I ever vote Conservative? Not as long as they have members/M.P.s who are anti choice and are in favour of fewer gun laws. Just don’t trust them and I’d just too old to see this country move the margins back on choice. As O’Toole’s ads say, we’re not your parents party. That is true, because in my case the party which existed when my parents did was the Progressive Conservatives. There is too much of a difference between the current Cons and the P.C.s of the Mulroney years.

    Do I think it will give us the results Quebec sees? Not at all. We are a population of only 5 million and change while Quebec has almost 3 times that.

    (Response: Actually Quebec has a population of 8 million … not three times BC’s. It just seems they have so much more because of the huge amount of power and federal largesse they enjoy! BC voters should learn from les Quebecois … and vote our INTERESTS, not our ideals. Sounds terrible in a way …but the calculated, strategic way they vote, crowning Prime Ministers, is why their province pulls much more weight in Ottawa than their numbers warrant. h.o)

  7. HARRY LAWSON says:

    Harvey,

    A couple of thoughts, the gaffes of the NDP this week ,failing to address the first Nations convention, and losing 2 candidates after flip flopping on the punishment for anti Semitic comments .

    will this affect the liberals?

    If we do get a minority government we could be back to the polls within weeks or months. Starting to remind me of Italy

    (Response: Won’t be like Italy (or Israel) … our parties are always totally broke after an election, and need at least two years to raise money …and deal with all the internal strife after defeat. h.o)

  8. Gilbert says:

    Jody Wilson-Raybould is a person of integrity. I hope people will remember her when they vote. It’s clear to me that she has a very low opinion of Justin Trudeau, and I completely agree with her.

    I find the Liberals extremely hypocritical. Their leader doesn’t allow pro-life MP’s, but doesn’t want Canadians to have any choice with respect to vaccines. The slogan “my body, my choice” doesn’t apply to the vaccines. In other words, he has no tolerance for those who disagree with him.

    He says he’s going to ban dangerous guns, but gun crime has soared under his leadership. He’s done nothing to stop the smuggling of illegal guns across the border and is very soft on crime. He’s broken so many promises that voters shouldn’t believe anything he tells them.

    There was recently an interview on Global which was excellent. The interviewer asked tough questions, and Justin Trudeau looked really uncomfortable. She pointed out that even though he talks about reconcilation with indigenous Canadians, he has yet to meet a single First Nations leader during this campaign!

    The polls show this is a tight race, but the Conservatives got more votes last time and still lost. The Liberals are very strong in Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal, and the Conservatives are very strong in eastern BC, Alberta and Saskatchewan. I hope that many voters on the left vote Conservative to send Justin Trudeau a clear message. His unacceptable behaviour (Mark Norman, SNC-Lavalin, WE charity, Aga Khan, Julie Payette, etc) should not be rewarded.

    (Response: This is a very unusual election. Usually, voters are mesmerized by promises, campaign performances, and even bribes: but this time, it really is looking like a personal referendum on Trudeau, his ethics, his gaffes, his personal performance. I believe if O’Toole wins, it won’t be s much Canadians like him … but they have fallen out of favor for Trudeau. h.o)

  9. Marge says:

    I guess to describe my politics as typical of my age and class would be very accurate. As the saying goes when you’re young and need money you vote liberal/NDP and when you’re hold and have a bit to hold on to, the last thing you want to do is give it to the government to waste so you vote Conservative.

    To understand my political beliefs, we’d have to look at my family history and culture.

    I grew up in a tiny little village in the middle of nowhere Manitoba. Grandpa who lived next door and who owned land and had a bit of cash, strangely enough believed in socialism, mainly because his family was always looking after someone. I think he believed strongly that a lot of people simply didn’t have the means to take care of themselves and the government should be involved in this. We always had a pair of what you would call “homeless” alcoholics living in trailers on his property so I am sure he didn’t come by his philosophy easily. We always had politicians promising us a brand-new road every time there was an election. Guess what? They never kept their promise, no matter if they got elected. The elections were always held in our little country store and my aunt was in charge of seeing they were done fairly.

    My mom had grown up during the Depression and knew what hunger was like. She would go the missions for food and even the Communist Party building if they had food for that day. Her dad was never told because he was scared that the government (and there was some truth in his belief) would arrest anyone who was attending a Communist meeting, because if you went, they fed you but you had to listen to the speech as well. Mom also met Tommy Douglas. He would later become the father of medicare for Canada. Douglas was a United Church minister who saw firsthand the poverty around the north end of Winnipeg. He later ran and became a strong voice of the NDP.

    I think mom voted for whomever she thought would give her family the best deal in life. Sometimes it was the NDP, other times Conservative. But she also taught me a lesson about style over substance. When Pierre Trudeau was running for the Liberals, he was the new “flower child” for the hippie culture. He could do no wrong and he was seen everywhere, kind of like his son today. The fact that he married a very pregnant youngster, some thirty years his junior, never seemed to consider anyone at all. He was just viewed as cool, instead of creepy as he should have been.

    Nevertheless, being young and foolish, I fell for the garbage the media was spewing about Trudeau and even campaigned for him. My mom decided to take me to a rally for the opposition Conservative Party. Their leader, Robert Stanfield, was a very homely man to say the least. Probably not much older than Trudeau, he was viewed as dowdy and old fashioned. So I went with mom to hear Stanfield speak, at a rally in downtown Winnipeg. I remember thinking how silly it was to go and have to listen, but I went anyways. What I heard absolutely floored me. This was a man with actual ideas for the country, a man who put some thought into what he was saying, a person with a heart, soul and brain. I learned that day that substance is the way to go, even if you are at odds with the rest out there. I only wished more people could have heard this fellow speak!

    Later on, I was living in Ft. McMurray, Alberta and saw Trudeau Sr. destroy the oil industry. If promises had been kept, we’d have done extremely well. Unfortunately, Trudeau Sr. like Trudeau Jr. had no substance and royally screwed the province. People voted style over substance.

    They continue to do so with Trudeau the younger. How can anyone with any brains think a man with no experience in life other than as a failed drama teacher and snowboarder was good enough to run our country? A man who gropes women, never keeps a promise, and is as racist as you can get is still probably going to get elected again. People still choose style over substance, don’t they? Thank heavens a little rally in Winnipeg many years ago, showed me the light! That is why I am casting my vote for the Conservative party.

    (Responses: We each have our life experiences, cultural backgrounds, educational programming and even geographical foundations that help form our opinions, principles and political views. It’s very complicated, but I think you sum it up for many very well when you write:” when you’re young and need money you vote liberal/NDP and when you’re old and have a bit to hold on to, the last thing you want to do is give it to the government to waste so you vote Conservative.” Kind of idealism versus realism. But THESE days, with a federal budget topping $355 Billion, it’s a very serious business … and it boggles my mind that so many British Columbians, even middle age and older, vote on principles and ideals for parties that have absolutely no chance of winning …and then take away benefits from their own kids and grandkids as they watch Quebeckers and Ontarians wallow in more than their fair share of power, cabinet appointments and thus federal spending!! I hope this election, maybe after reading this blog, enough BC voters will “get it” … and vote strategically for whichever party they believe WILL win …not the one they WISH could win. h.o)

  10. nonconfidencevote says:

    I take the polls with a grain of salt.
    I haven’t been polled and I don’t know anyone that has.

    I voted at the advanced polls.
    VERY busy.
    A harbinger of an upset majority for one of the two main parties?

    Fingers crossed we won’t have to suffer through another 5 years of Trudeau’s incessant, inane, pc prattle.

    (Response: I think the big turnout is often a harbinger of change. But until the final numbers are in, we won’t really know if it’s an overall larger turnout or just those who do vote going earlier or via mail in ballot because of Covid. h.o.)

  11. Not Sure says:

    For those of you who like numbers I highly recommend 338canada.com

    I am not swearing by the numbers but if you are thinking of voting strategically or like predicting outcomes this site has a wealth of information. The CBC’s poll tracker is similar but this one is more detailed.

    Just as an example for Stu and Keith who were wondering about Elizabeth May and the Greens, you can find information on each party. Just check the bar at the top of the home page for the various topics.

    According to the site, Elizabeth May is a safe seat. Manley is favoured but in a very tight three way race. In Kitchener, the Green candidate is also slightly favoured but also in a closely fought three way race. Both those ridings are considered tossups. And in both those ridings it is the Liberal who is way down in the low teens. It is the Liberals who should be voting strategically if anybody should to keep the Conservatives from gaining seats.

    In Fredericton the former Green, now Liberal is in a tight two way race with the Conservative. The Greens are at 24% to the other two 33%. The NDP are in single digits. With those numbers the Greens might consider voting strategically (for their former colleague) but soft NDP definitely should.

    And Harvey, if those strategic votes change an outcome, it will be to the benefit of the Liberals as they will one and the Conservatives will lose the other two. I haven’t bothered checking other provinces, but listening to Trudeau recently he is definitely going after soft NDP and Green voters. Like Martin did in 2004 which gave him the minority that Harper probably should have won.

    Again, I am not saying we shouldn’t vote strategically, but I think it benefits the Liberals more than anybody.

    (Response: Yes, those potential third party swing voters are now in play BIG time. I saw O’Toole this morning on TV..and he emphasized he/Conservatives are the ONLY ones who can replace Trudeau/Liberals. I’m surprised (or maybe I shouldn’t be) that the media aren’t making more of those very close ridings and how strategic voting by third/fourth party supporters could actually decide the election outcome. I have now voted: Conservative this time (realizing there would no doubt be lots for me to rant about with them within months in office too!) but whether a swing votes keeps or tosses Trudeau, it’s all very fascinating… and even exciting. h.o)

  12. HARRY LAWSON says:

    Harvey

    What affect do you think the Kenny covid debacle will have on O’Toole’s electibility?

    Did Trudeau win the lottery ?

    (Response: I believe O’Toole has been hurting himself lately … totally ignoring or sliding around on direct questions, just repeating “read our plan” too often and looking a bit sleazy even before the ballots are counted. His stances that vaccinations should not be made mandatory to travel and his position(s) on guns, I believe, are losing potential support. And his refusal to even criticize, let alone condemn, Kenney’s miserable handling of Covid (how many have suffered/died unnecessarily?) is no doubt hurting him. Monday should be VERY exciting! 🙂 h.o)

  13. e.a.f. says:

    Harvey, thank you for the correction. I truly did not know Quebec’s population was that low. In a lot of my reading I’ve seen it written it was listed a lot higher. The last article I read a couple of weeks ago had Ontario at 15 million and Quebec at 13 million. As I recall it was in a main stream publication, with their article on line. Well its time I go to the Stats Canada website and do some reading. Thank you again. 8 Million??? that’s all??? Yikes.

    This new information will not change how I vote, but it sure changes my attitude. 8 million and they get all “that stuff”. B.C. and Alberta have more than that if we’re put together and we don’t get as much as Quebec nor are we pandered to in the manner Quebec is. B.C. deserves as much as Quebec. We’re just as “cute”, smart, etc. In the family of Canada it is unfair Quebec is treated like the favorite child. 8 million, yikes.

    (Response: Now, I hope you do not have heart problems. If you can handle it, you may want to know that Quebec last year received $13.2 BILLION of the TOTAL $20.5 Billion Canada’s “richest” provinces gave to the “poorer” ones in Equalization Grants. Those giving …and receiving nothing back were: BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland (oil). And although Alberta has complained ..NOT A SINGLE BC MP of any party has objected to this outdated “Equalization” farce! And of course, the “national” media won’t touch it! In addition, according to Wikipedia: “Quebec residents pay the highest provincial tax in the country but the lowest federal Tax.[31] Quebec residents pay 16.5% less federal income tax annually than other Canadian provinces due to the Quebec Abatement.” You can read the entire article here: but I suggest you be sitting down when you do: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equalization_payments_in_Canada#Quebec. h.o)

  14. Not Sure says:

    LOL Harvey sends me down the rabbit hole once again.

    You wondered why “the media aren’t making more of those very close ridings and how strategic voting by third/fourth party supporters could actually decide the election outcome.” So I googled “strategic votes Canada”. And the first hit.

    http://www.strategicvoting.ca/

    This is not a media story. This is a site that shows progressives which ridings are up for grabs and how progressives should vote. In its “about” section it claims to be a grassroots organization. I always question that claim, but it is definitely anti-Conservative, maybe even pro-Liberal as the vast majority of recommendations – 74/86 – are for the Liberals. I only looked for a handful but I wasn’t overwhelmed by their analysis which I won’t bore you with.

    You keep saying that third and fourth party supporters could decide the outcome. You are not wrong. But if they did most certainly most of their votes would go toward the Liberals rather than the Conservatives resulting in a Liberal victory, maybe a majority.

    So how about Conservative strategic voters. In Quebec according to 338, there are 15 toss up ridings. The Liberals lead in six of them with the Bloc in second place. How about the Conservatives vote Bloc to ensure that those six seats are taken from the Liberals giving the Conservatives a better chance of getting the most seats.

    One last thing. You are voting for the Conservatives hoping for a Conservative minority. I am voting NDP hoping for a minority, preferably Liberal. When Harper was defeated, people were tired of Harper but they were also tired of Conservative policy. In this election, Trudeau is no longer the golden boy, but I am not so sure that people are tired of the Liberal brand. Calling an unnecessary election hoping for a majority and getting the status quo of another minority is definitely a rebuke of Trudeau. Will he be gone if he doesn’t get that majority?

    (Response: I agree most NDP/Green supporters would NORMALLY shift to the Liberal candidate rather than a Tory. But these are not normal times: many may realize voting Liberal just keeps Trudeau in power for possibly another three to five years …and also in politics maybe even longer. Defeating him sends the Liberals into internal turmoil, fighting and having to find a new leader. So in the end, having O’Toole/Tories in power for one term may actually help the NDP and maybe even the Greens more in the long run. h.o)

  15. frozentundra says:

    Hi Harvey:

    If the Conservatives are relying on the NDP for government, we will have a Trudeau government for sure. Jagmeet will be out as NDP leader if he ever went with the Conservatives, so he will continue the pattern of being Trudeau’s kingmaker, hoping that they feed him some scraps of legislation, forgetting that the NDP were almost obliterated by doing this for Trudeau Senior in the 70’s. I cannot understand that Canadians support a government that has this much rot and corruption on it, but it is the national governing party after all.Oh well, at least BC may be factored in the final equation this time.
    Off the subject a little Harvey, but I am getting impressed with Neetu Garcha’s interviewing skills. She had done some very good interviews in the past, but her interview with Trudeau was more in the vein of Webster than the softballs we see from the CBC. And she was that aggressive with all the other national leaders as well.

    (Response; I think in a minority situation, the NDP would be more likely to support the Liberals than the Conservatives. But the premise of my piece is not about the NDP party, but about individuals who normally vote NDP in ridings they never win may should be thinking of voting for whichever leading party they want to form government. If enough do that, NDP/Green supporters could affect the election outcome. h.o)

  16. Not Sure says:

    Back in the rabbit hole.

    Here is an article saying that co-ordinated strategic voting campaigns don’t actually work. It is an interesting article and uses one example of the CAW in 2011 endorsing an incumbent Liberal only to have the Conservative win by a slim margin over the rising, second place finisher, Jagmeet Singh. ?

    https://theconversation.com/canadian-election-2021-do-strategic-voting-campaigns-actually-work-166782

    Over at the Tyee they reprinted the above article and the comments ended up being a discussion of pro rep vs FPTP. If strategic vote is a thing then why not reform the system so strategic voting is unnecessary.

    Further into the rabbit hole.

    https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/08/30/opinion/canadians-vote-electoral-reform-first-past-post-ranked-ballots

    In this article we learn that, according to a Leger poll after the 2019 election almost 1/3 of voters said they voted to prevent a candidate/party from winning as opposed to voting FOR a candidate. Almost half of Liberal voters had considered voting for the NDP and 30% and 29% had considered the Bloc and the Greens. In other words well over half of Liberal support comes from people who could easily support other parties.

    The author claims that this validated the Liberals punting on their previous promise to end FPTP and suggests we would be better off with a ranked ballot system.

    And lastly. themanitoban.com/2021/09/2021-presents-a-weak-case-to-the-left-for-strategic-voting/42717/

    This article claims that O’Toole is not as scary as previous Conservative leaders therefore soft NDP support should not be afraid to vote for their party instead of voting against Conservatives by voting Liberal. If O’Toole happens to win a minority, the NDP with a higher % of the vote can use that to prove they are a more legitimate contender in future elections.

    Confused yet.

    (Response: These days, with the Internet, anyone can find “articles” proving (?) any view on any issue is true or false. People have to look at the source, the bias, the soundness of the “facts” and/or research …and of course, most go with the view they already hold! I do believe strategic voting by third/fourth party supporters in close ridings could indeed make a difference, but I’m not sure most of them even understand the power they can exercise in determining the government this time … or are willing to hold their noses and vote to affect the outcome. This election looks like it will be very close and I personally will be both comfortable and uncomfortable with either a Conservative or Liberal minority government … but unenthusiastic with either. h.o)

  17. e.a.f. says:

    “can’t understand why Canadians would support a government with that much rot in it”. Welll I can because conservative governments have rot also. Like lets start with Mulroney, . any one spell/remember air bus He sued the government, won and then later we found out he did do what he was accused of. There is a wonderful book by Stevie Cameron, “On the Take, the Mulroney Years”. You think the federal Liberals have “rot”, read the book. Makes the federal Liberals look like choir boys/girls. And yes, I did see that play out in real time.

    Then we had Harper. A government which took us into a war and in the end more veterans killed themselves than died in the war. When Vets started to fight back regarding the lack of support the government took to reading their personal medical files looking for things they could use against them. that is against Privacy rules. Lets not forget Vic Toews who Harper had in Cabinet. Finally got rid of him by appointing him as a Judge. Toews had a ‘thing’ for teenage baby sitters. Nice. Fortunately one 14 yr old was the daughter of a cop, who went home and the family took care of things.

    Scheer, happy he didn’t become P.M. He was the guy who “received” money from the Conservative Party to put his kids in Catholic Private school. Little shady if you ask me.

    Given what it takes to become a politician and produce winners there will always be “rot”. Its the nature of the beast. I’m not keen on it, but in the end I look at what the government/party does. Don’t remember the Conservatives doing much for women’s rights, keeping us safe–fewer guns, doing anything about child poverty-the Libs at least send out those monthly cheques which do keep approx. 250K kids above the poverty line. Cons are always big on tax credit type things, but that only benefits people who actually have enough money to pay taxes.

    Does anyone think the Cons would have spent as much money as the Libs did during the start of COVID. Some may think it was too much, but I saw directly people who benefited–like families where the parental units couldn’t go to work and were terrified of what would happen. Without that money provinces would have had to spend huge amounts, if they were willing, on welfare or food programs. the federal Liberals sent out 500K cheques in 36 hrs on a 48 yr old computer. what is funny to me, is that the computer was purchased while his father was P.M. and used in the early days of the new 1971 U.I. Act. Upp, the computer still worked. Now the cons and computers, ask federal government workers how that is going, you know some federal workers lost their homes because Harper’s government couldn’t figure out how to buy a computer which paid the government workers on time.

    Yes, there is a deficeit, but I consider it an investment in the children/families in Canada.

    the first thicng Harper did upon forming government was defunding all the federally financed women’s groups in Canada. don’t recollect one social program the cons brought forward while in office, but I do remember the day, 1962, Sask, Tommy Douglas–NDP, brought in government health care and the ensuing fight. Remember when the federal Liberals brought in government health care nationally, 1966. I’m so old I remember what life was like for working people in this country prior to this.

    Neither the cons nor liberal “thrill” me but I do know the liberals have done more for the average working person in this country than the Conservatives.

    • Gilbert says:

      The Liberals are currently spending $500 million a day. This is unsustainable. Budgets don’t balance themselves, but a person who has never had financial problems doesn’t need to worry about that.

      The new military alliance, Aukus, excludes Canada. This is so sad. Not even our allies take Justin Trudeau seriously. He just can’t be trusted.

  18. e.a.f. says:

    Gilbert, you write its not sustainable. However, what would you have done. The money going to businesses and individuals paid rent, mortgages, paid bills and fed families and individuals. If the feds had not paid, provinces would have had some big welfare lines. the money was mostly spent locally I’d suggest, so it stayed in our economy and guess what, people even paid taxes with that money every time they shopped.

    Its true budgets don’t balance themselves, but my take on Trudeau’s actions is, he thought there might be more important things to spend money on, like keeping families afloat.

    Deficeits come and go, but families and kids endure for ever.

    As to aukus, they excluded N.Z. also but they do have a smaller population. My take on this is its not that they don’t trust Trudeau but that the Communist Chinese have made too many inroads into our political and financial affairs and the guy who started that all in full seriousness was Harper with his 10 yr visas and his free trade agreement with Communist China. Its just not the federal government these other countries are concerned about but politicians at the local and provincial levels also. It wasn’t too many years ago the gathering of municipal politicians attended a gathering paid for my one of the arms of the Communist Chinese government. We had school boards being paid for language schools in Mandarin. The Communist Chinese government has long arms and they are interfering in governments not only in Canada but all over the world, even going so far as to force former citizens to return to their country.
    The Americans know Canada isn’t going to pay for nuclear subs, so why invite them to the new party. Trudeau spent the cash on taking care of families during COIVD. He isn’t going to pay for nuclear subs. Now that may be a bad mistake at some level because, if the U.S.A.’s politics shift far enough we might want to have a military which can defend us. We need to remember the U.S.A. is no one’s “friend” and we sit between them and Russia, also no one’s friend.

    Australia has taken a tough stand with China, but they’re also in the same neighbourhood. we in Canada aren’t and we have always taken it for granted the U.S.A. would cover our asses if there was trouble. The americans need a reliable partner in the area and the Australians are a natural choice. The other countries aren’t reliable. Japan has a Constitution which prohibits a number of military actions. Taiwan is in a difficult position, because some day the mainland may invade, so they’re ruled out also and most countries don’t recognize Taiwan. So we could say Trudeau spent the money on groceries and doesn’t have enough left over for a new nuclear sub.

    (Response: It’s about time the West started responded to China’s huge military buildup, aggressive actions and bullying techniques. We need to do more! Trudeau was asked why Canada was not part of the AUKUS pact and said it was because we are not a nuclear submarine power. I hope, however, if there are other actions taken to curb China’s expansionist agenda, Canada will be part of it. Maybe more likely under O’Toole. h.o)

    • nonconfidencevote says:

      Well, if our Prime Ministers “traditional garb” in India was any indication of the “depth” of his foreign policy experience….

      I’m sure if you promised Justin he could wear a military uniform at parades….he’d enthusiastically fund the military…….

      He’s a national and international embarrassment.

  19. e.a.f. says:

    a Trudeau in a military uniform? is very doubtful it will ever happen. they don’t do military.

    As to a national embarrassment, we will find out tomorrow if that is true or not or if others share your opinion. I’d suggest for many in this country, he is still the guy who sends those cheques for their kids each month. for those not in receipt of them or not at the end of the economic scale, please be informed those cheques make a huge difference in some families lives. I don’t care what Trudeau wears, as long as those cheques continue to go out to families with children. Those cheques took 250K kids out of living below the poverty line. It ought to be pointed out kids don’t make the choice to be “poor, economically deprived, etc.” , its society who does that. If there is one thing I hate in this life, its child poverty, there is no reason for it in a country as rich as ours. These cheques also help provinces balance their books. In some provinces they claw back that money, either in whole or part. Nasty business that because those provincial leaders have determined its o.k. for kids to live below the poverty line, just as long as the province has a balanced budget or they can give tax breaks to their political supporters and corporations.

    As to an international embarrassment. Personally don’t care what other countries think of Trudeau, he isn’t their P.M. However, I’d suggest that he is not an “international embarrassment, International embarrassments are people like Trump, Xi, the Pres. of brazil, Phillipines, most of the Arab world, most of Africas countries, the list go on.

    Some other western countries’ leaders may think he’s a flake, but then who are they to judge him. They all have enough skeletons in their closet to open a Halloween store. About the only world leader whose opinion I’d care about is Merkel.

    • nonconfidencevote says:

      Well e.a.f. it’s good to know you don’t care about balanced budgets and rising taxes ….because THAT is the only legacy our version of “Little Lord Fauntleroy” and his merry advisors will leave us …..for decades.

      His policies have been a financial disaster that will ensure fatherless children will be receiving pitiful handouts forever…. or the country goes broke and our dollar is worth nothing.
      Take your pick.

      • e.a.f. says:

        when it comes to rising taxes, well I don’t care. taxes need to be paid to have services which maintain a country, Of course it would help if tax laws were over hauled and did away with such things as hiding money over seas and requiring all people and corporations who live/work here pay here and if a parental unit is off some where else but the family lives here, the parental unit ought to have to pay Canadian taxes. Doubt if its ever going to happen though. Neither the Cons nor the Liberals will do much about it. Come to think of it it was Harper who gave all those “caught” hiding money in Switzerland a nice break, just pay what you owe, don’t bother with fines, etc.

        Our country will not go broke, get a grip. As to our dollar it will remain where it is or some where around there.

        Fatherless children???? omg how did that happen. The last time I checked biology it required an egg and a sperm and the sperm comes from a male. Now you may be referring to fathers who do not support their children, but that is a matter for provincial governments to collect. Now child support laws are laid out by the feds, but they are not to blame if parents of either sex refuse to pay. You might have included mothers who don’t pay child support. In today’s world it isn’t unheard of a mother to make more money in their jobs than the kids father.

        As to “pitiful hand outs”, we could go to a guaranteed income for all, but I expect you’d object to that also.

        Don’t remember the cons ever bringing any social legislation which benefited kids or women or men in this country.

        • nonconfidencevote says:

          Some people can’t look after dogs yet they have multiple children….. and then it become the taxpayers life long burden…….

          I wonder what will happen if there is Universal Basic Income (who pays for THAT?).

          MORE kids or less?
          I’d say more, since the govt ( taxpayers) will, eventually , look after them.

  20. Marge says:

    I find it strange that eaf believes Trudeau really cares about children. Then how would you explain his poor behaivor towards women? Elbowing, groping women, throwing them out of his cabinet when they don’t meet his needs, how do you explain that? If he really gave a damn about you, he wouldn’t do that. He only apologizes after he is caught. I suspect that Mr. Trudeau has many mental health issues that date back to his parents. I am almost borderline certain that he might even be one of those “drug babies” considering he doesn’t seem to have a conscience. He is only a mouth piece for a bunch of rich people and doesn’t care one whit about you.

    How many planes is he flying on for this campaign? The self-righteous carbon person is such a hypocrite.

    Children on many reserves don’t have clean water. Guess who wouldn’t provide it? Has anyone forgotten how he belittled the First Nations woman who asked him about it? That says a lot about his character, doesn’t it?

    Also stranger is the fact that Mrs. Trudeau is nowhere to be found along the campaign trail. Shouldn’t that say something about him?

    Trudeau gave away our PPE to China and couldn’t get it back when we needed it. He allowed people to come in from India because he didn’t want to lose votes. He wouldn’t even allow government to operate. How is all this the signs of a good caring leader?

    Isn’t it weird that the only leader who comes from a middle-class union background is O’Toole? Trudeau and Singh both come from wealthy families and have never had to worry about anything in their lives. It especially shows in Trudeau’s behavior.

    What promise has he kept? Just breaks them and then lies to your face and promises the same again and again.

    Trudeau’s behavior towards women should be enough eaf to vote against him. The child credit was nothing. Children on reserves still don’t have clean water. How does that make you feel.
    ?

    If you don’t care about women’s rights, racism (remember black face), democratic government and actually believe that Trudeau is helping children, then vote Liberal and expect Trudeau to behave even worse than he already does even if he gets a minority government.

  21. e.a.f. says:

    Marge, I’d only vote federal Liberal if it came down to strategic voting. Voting left is a life long habit which won’t be changed.

    yes, its true clean drinking water on reserves is still a major issue, but lets be clear not one Conservative P.M. did anything to improve things on reserves at all. Come to think of it, when Harper was P.M. relations with Indigenous People did not go well. They placed the Appawatska in receivership when they complained about a lack of housing. They took it to court and John Duncan, the minister responsible, refused to sign off on 16 badly needed housing units. He was waiting for the Judge to rule. When the feds lost the case, Duncan refused to sign off. No new houses for the Indigenous in the north on that reserve. Fun part, the Judge ruled the band had handled their money well. The problem was they didn’t have enough of it because the feds, Harper et al refused to send sufficient monies to deal with matters.

    Wearing “black face” is not appropriate but it was done by all sorts of young people back in the day at halloween and other events. So lets not just dump on Trudeau for that when he was much younger. As to the groping, again, some time in his 20s as I recall. I’d love to do a survey of all male M.P.s to check if they groped females any time in their lives and also survey female M.P.s to see if they gropped males or other females when they were young. When you come to behaviour, check on my earlier comments regarding Vic Toews. Harper gave him a Judgeship. Nice going.

    Caring about children is very different from caring about adults male or female. The Trudeau cheques, as I refer to them go to kids in this country and no Conservative ever did anything like it, well neither did other Liberals. Now it might be he did it for crass political purposes, but that isn’t something to care about. Its the fact those cheques go out. They do make a difference. Don’t know where you live or what your social/economic status is, but in the world around me, those cheques matter.

    Don’t expect any politician cares about me and don’t expect them to. Certainly we haven’t had a party leader who actually cared for people since Tommy Douglas and that is some time ago. Some people go into politics because they want to make things better, but the process of obtaining a seat in Parliament is so shall we say difficult it “corrupts” the soul of many and they loose their souls. Our Parliamentary system “forces” M.P.s to tow the party line. those who don’t are bounced. Its how they keep their M.P.s in line and promote their agendas. Both the Conservatives and Liberals are well known for ensuring their financial supporters do well in the game of life and govern accordingly. Its how the world works.

    O’Toole may come from the background you describe but that doesn’t mean much. There have actually been cases of NDP parents winding up with Socred kids and Socred parents with NDP kids. Its sad for the parents, but these things happen. Knew parents who used to march in the Peace Marchs. Son joined the Armed Forces.

    It doesn’t matter where you come from, its where you are now.

    So we all go to the polls tomorrow and we’ll see sometime during the week who is the P.M. Now I’d like to wake up and see Singh as P.M. but that isn’t going to happen. Trudeau will have to do because in the end I don’t trust the conservatives to not make changes to a woman’s right to choice and they seem a bit too attached to their guns and as I recall Harper eliminated a gun registry. O’Toole being a politician will also do what he has to, to stay in office. After being elected to government the first priority of all parties is TO STAY IN POWER. every thing else is secondary. Known that since childhood.

    • nonconfidencevote says:

      Trudeau was 29 when he was last photographed wearing “Blackface”….hardly a young person.

      Trudeau has and will spend ….every ….last…..taxpayer…..dime and then borrow on the taxpayers backs …..to stay in power.

      Disgusting.
      And fiscal irresponsibility like that should be BANNED.
      No more vote buying WITH OUR MONEY.
      BANNED.
      Because its criminal.

  22. Not Sure says:

    I don’t know if either site will update today, but both 338 and CBC poll tracker are predicting similar outcomes – a Liberal minority with about 150 seats to the Conservatives 125. The Bloc and the NDP will get about 30 each. And the Greens 2.

    However, if a bunch of tossup or leaning riding involving the Liberals were to go Liberal there is a 15% chance of a Liberal majority. There is a 1% chance of that happening for the Conservatives. The Conservatives have about a 30% chance of forming a minority.

    If the most likely prediction holds – Liberal minority with 150 seats – we will have spent 5 weeks and $600M to get the exact same result as two years ago. Good call, Trudeau.

    Now back to your topic on strategic voting. In my case it is easy. I support the NDP and I like the candidate who has done a good job the last two years. He is going to win handily. There is no point in anybody thinking strategically in my riding. Your riding – Vancouver Granville – according to 338 – is a three way tossup. The Conservative and Liberal have 31% each and the NDP 30%. (I honestly don’t know how 338 gets individual ridings but it was right – within the margin of error – about 90% of the time last election.)

    In Granville should the other 8%, split between Green and PPC, vote strategically?

    Maybe. But maybe those parties are there because people are oh so tired of the top two parties. What is the point of flipping your vote to “the winner” when the winner will just result in the same old same old disappointment that made you vote for a minor party in the first place.

    I am not arguing with your premise that voting strategically can change the election results. Sure it will although at a riding level more than nationally. I am just wondering if it is in our best interests to do so. The Liberals and the Conservatives both have about 32% according to the polls. One of those parties will form government when 2/3 of the people didn’t vote for them. If we start throwing lukewarm (at best) votes at one to the two leading parties because we hate the other so much we are keeping the bar low. We are encouraging parties to stay at a four as long as the others are threes instead of forcing them to become 5s and 6s,to actually earn our vote.

    (Response: My fear is that British Columbians will end up voting on principles (usually a praiseworthy trait) instead of in BC’s interests …and the result will be returning power in government, in the Cabinet and the massive resulting benefits one again to Ontario and Quebec ..well beyond their deserved numbers. BC needs MORE MPs on the winning side …and the only real chance for that is by voting Liberal or Conservative. The NDP or Greens may have policies people would prefer in an ideal world …but politics these days are far from any ideal! BC needs a fairer share of power and more MPs in Cabinet fighting for OUR rights and OUR benefits and the only way to get that is by electing MPs to GOVERNMENT ..not the Opposition. h.o)

  23. NVG says:

    Wouldn’t you know it, busy, busy, busy, watched as much on the candidates for our riding, waited until this morning to cast our ballots and then, Quarantined. Oh well, there will be another minority government that will only last ….. two years.

    (Response: More important to get better! h.o)

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