ONE DAY that Changed Canada for YEARS

The bottom line result of Monday’s federal election: Justin Trudeau will be Prime Minister again … possibly for years!

Yes, it will be a minority Liberal government … a major step down from Trudeau’s majority before the writ was dropped … but don’t even think, worry or dream that Canadians will be heading back to the polls anytime soon.

The NDP is broke; the Bloc Quebecois is delighted; the Greens are celebrating; and the Conservatives fell far shorter than expected.

They may all bluster and bash and berate … but NONE of them will be in any position for quite some time to defeat the Liberals … and force another election.

However Canada tomorrow will be much different than it was yesterday.

The NDP held 39 seats at dissolution: however, even with fewer than that in the next Parliament, it will certainly wield considerable more influence … especially on climate change, taxation policies and social programs legislation … given the minority government situation.

But not enough to stop the Trans-Mountain pipeline.

No doubt in my mind, the Tories will back the Liberals in ANY consequential vote that would threaten the future of that project.

And speaking of the Tories, although Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives lost the election … they not only picked up seats … they also won more of the popular vote than the Liberals.

But they have a big problem.

Just think about all the dirt Sheer/Tories were able to throw at Trudeau and see stick: SNC Lavalin interference; Jody Wilson-Raybould’s mistreatment; the blackface fiasco; fears over huge carbon taxes; his embarrassing India trip; weak response to China’s bullying; and, being found guilty of two ethics violations.

And yet, although Canadians chastised Justin Trudeau … enough voters still chose to return him/Liberals to power.

What failed the Tories?

I believe, if there’s a lesson in the election results for the Official Opposition party … it’s that MOST Canadians (if you add up the Liberal, NDP, Green or even Bloc popular vote) SUPPORT the fight against climate change, ACCEPT the carbon tax, FAVOUR women’s choice on abortion, UPHOLD respecting LGBTQ rights, and AGREE with foreign aid, welcoming refugees and immigration.

Canada has changed … and, if they want to win, the Tories must as well.

Harv Oberfeld

(Note to readers: Comments are welcome; discussions and debates are encouraged … but will be edited if off topic and for excessive length. And remember, you can get First Alerts to all new postings on this BC-based Blog by following @harveyoberfeld on Twitter.

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44 Responses to ONE DAY that Changed Canada for YEARS

  1. e.a.f. says:

    Was very happy to see JWR win. Demonstrates once again a good independent can win.

    Unfortunately Lisa Raitt and Ralph Goodale were not re elected. both have done a good job in Parliament. Its a loss for both parties.

    It was nice to see Rona Ambrose doing commentary along with some of the others such as Peter Mansbridge and Bob Rae.

    Harvey, as you’ve written, with all that, the Conservatives couldn’t win. Lets hope it sends a message.

    It was interesting to see the Greens pick up a seat in the Maritimes. they have done a good job of growing as a party. The Bloc has also done a very good job of re inventing itself. the NDP’s decline in seats is not terribly worrying to me. Its about where they were historically before Jack Layton did so well in Quebec. Never did expect them to hold on to those seats. There is now a number of parties in Parliament, not too many, but there are options. We’re doing well as a country.

    thank you for all the work you did during the election.

  2. nonconfidencevote says:

    Another two years of Trudeau’s insipid pandering for “everyone’s rights”……ugh.
    Unbearable.
    Lisa Raitt was a loss for the Cons. I was surprised to see her lose. She’s one of the few that held the Libs to task….
    Ontario’s loathing of Doug Ford cost the Cons the election….

  3. D. M. Johnston says:

    On global TV last night, the political panel had one chap, who has an evening radio program, David Adler, best summed up the conservatives problems.

    Now Adler called himself a life long Conservative but, as you mentioned above, the anti Muslim, LGBTQ, climate change American GOP/Trumpian politic, had the man in tears, literally.

    The Conservatives shot themselves in the foot, following the American Tea Party types, with a Canadian version of Hate Inc. I think a lot of moral people, who normally voted for Conservative, did not, allowing the Liberals to win a minority government.

    I am more worried about Quebec’s rise of the BQ, than the prospects of a minority government.

    The big winner of the night, Jody Wilson Raybould.

    The big loser, Scheer.

    My crystal ball see regime change for the Conservatives, the NDP in their normal delusional state will retain Singh and face oblivion in the next election.

    (Response: The victory for the Bloc is NOT a return to separatist thinking or agenda; It’s a power play by Quebeckers and no one should be surprised that they have absolutely no interest in what is better for Canada … just themselves. In fact, depending on how this works out for Quebec in Ottawa, there may be an important lesson here for the West too … not in terms of “Wexit” but in terms of resurrecting a Western regionally focused and based party to push and advocate for Western interests, in return for votes to prop up usually Ontario-focussed minority national governments. h.o)

  4. Marge says:

    You can’t win when people in Canada are too used to the welfare state. Look how Atlantic Canada voted for example and Ontario who are no longer happy with Ford’s economic realism. It had nothing to do with rights, climate change or any of the hooey the media was feeding us. Plain and simple, conservative logic and saving for a rainy day is out with modern Canadians. We are hooped. Look at the massive spending to come ahead from the NDP propping Liberals.

    People would sooner live in the bubble that the next generation will pay for the deficit. Wait until it happens seems to be the norm. Sad for Canada.

    (Response: So…” It had nothing to do with rights, climate change or any of the hooey the media was feeding us.” Please quote the studies you draw on to reach your conclusion? Several professional polls and interviews by many diverse media (radio, TV, newspapers) have identified climate change as a MAJOR public concern … and WIDE support for women’s and gay rights. But I’m sure many Liberal, NDP and Green strategists and supporters will hope, however, the Conservatives continue to accept and promote YOUR views on these subjects! h.o)

  5. 13 says:

    Many factors to consider in this loss. The pop vote is split (unless you allow all of the left to unite). So Im not sure you can state that Canadians want the carbon tax. Andrew Scheers leadership must be questioned and the conservative platform needs to be tweaked enough to draw some voters interest from the cities.
    If the conservatives can find a new leader and fine tune their platform they supposedly have the money to go back to the polls. If they decide to stick with Scheer and stand pat on their platform there best chance for victory is still Justin Trudeau.
    Mr Prime Minister started on his next term of blunders , ethical failures, lapses in any adult judgement right out of the gate last night. He began his term as a classless clown by walking on Scheers speech.

    (Response: Scheer was very specific in his concession speech to note that the Conservatives received more of the popular vote than the Liberals. But he conveniently neglected to mention the OVERALL popular vote … which I believe supports my conclusions that MOST Canadians do favour climate action etc. Just look at the numbers: Conservatives 6,115,424; Liberals 5,868,190 … BUT the other parties …that want even MORE climate action than the Liberals have proposed …. got millions more: NDP 2,829,374, the Greens 1,149,808 and the Bloc 1,368,857. If the Tories don’t open their eyes to this …they are doomed… especially as more and more older voters die off and Millennials increase. h.o)

  6. Chuckstraight says:

    I love the part where the Liberals got less votes than the Cons but way more seats. Hilarious.

  7. Gene The Bean says:

    Thanks for everything Harvey.

    After all the bumbles, stumbles and in some cases the outright idiocy of the Liberals, Canadians refused to accept the hate and lies of the Cons and maintained their moral compass to elect a minority government. Just 14 seats short of a MAJORITY is a stunning ‘in yo face’ to Con policies (or lack thereof) and what the Con leadership spew out of their echo chamber of division and selfishness. They just don’t get it.

    (Edited… surely you can disagree without insults)

    Under these circumstances this election is a massive repudiation of essentially everything that has come out of a Con mouth in the last year. The fact they had to lock Doug Ford up in his basement the last six weeks tells you all you need to know about how Cons look at themselves – and how they look at the rest of us.

    Big increases in the under 30 vote. Strategic voting in Atlantic Canada and in Ontario to keep the Cons out. Green party growth. PPC and Mad Max kicked to the curb where they belong -(edited…) Quebec is still just a mercenary vote but they surprisingly, like the majority of the country, refused to except the “trust me” nonsense of the Cons.

    This minority is everything I hoped would happen. Hopefully the Libs have learned a BIG lesson. I hope the Cons have too but I hold little hope of that happening. The NDP has a real chance to step up and carve out some significant gains through ‘doing’ something instead of just ‘saying’ something.

    As for the huge blue swath across the prairies, well, they’ll eventually figure out the Cons ditched them decades ago. The age out and the emerging under 30 vote will start to change things there.

    Also Congrats to our independent MP and all those that voted for her – a possible first step in changing who and how we vote.

    This is the perfect outcome for Canada – just the way it should be.

  8. DBW says:

    1. The 338 site was pretty accurate. It’s “failing” was underestimating 142 seats for the Liberals and over estimating 35 for the NDP. It gave one too many seats to the Bloc and Green and three too few to the Conservatives. Not bad.

    2. I think your lesson paragraph is dead on. Back in the day, many Liberal voters had no problem flipping over to the Conservatives. That doesn’t seem to be the case any more. The Conservatives did win the popular vote, but how many of the other 66% of voters would consider the Conservatives as their second choice.

    3. The CPC of Canada is not the party of Stanfield, Clark or Mulroney. I am not talking about the leaders but the party they led. The CPC is definitely a right wing party that has a hard time appealing to wavering centrists.

  9. hawgwash says:

    Interesting times ahead and I agree, there is little chance of an overthrow, lest the Bloc goes rogue.

    I can’t be upset by this result because, like Elizabeth May to Trudeau; “I pray you don’t get a majority.”

    The irony in my thinking is, this is closer to my beliefs, during the SNC issues and right up until my prediction, late in the last blog; Trudeau would get back in, the NDP would lose ground, and the Green’s would gain.

    Bloc was nowhere in my previous thoughts.

    So what made me change?

    In the end, I both over and under estimated, based on emotion.
    Ba- ad move.

    I thought more people were disgusted with Trudeau and fewer afraid of Scheer.

    So, yeah, I’m ok with this.

    What I don’t get, is the renewed talk of “Wexit.” Regardless of the outcome, pipelines will still need to deal with BC and Quebec, so Alberta is not in a lose position, with this result and the “West” chose to dump Goodale and Raitt, two people they could have benefitted from.
    …….
    My contempt for JT has not faded and his
    sunny ways acceptance just added to it. So phoney.

    (Response: I don’t take “Wexit” talk seriously … not yet. Mostly now just bitter middle aged and older right wingers who don’t like not getting their way. And I don’t see many of them showing any real “PASSION” in their beliefs … like the true, dedicated separatists did in Quebec in their time. There certainly is alienation in the West (even I have some) … that should be addressed if ALL the parties would stop pandering to Quebec and the “905” area of Ontario … but establish a separate country… not really. h.o.)

  10. 13 says:

    Looking back over my years of voting in Federal elections Im sure when I was 19 I voted for the NDP. Federal and provincially. When I realized that the party of the working man had become the party of the public sector I stopped voting NDP. Federally I have voted both Liberal and Conservative. I have always been very center of the road and it was easy to vote Federally I just looked at which party was making my life better.
    The explosion of government spending on government employees soured my taste for almost all political parties. The liberals have moved further to the left than the conservatives have to the right. Scheer should look to his left and move that way. Replace Trudeau with JWR move to the middle and leave the climate war to the GreeNdp and I could likely vote for the Liberals.
    That was then and this is now. I and about 50 % of our country are forced to support the middle of the road conservatives. As long as Justin masquerades as a climate warrior that owns a pipeline he and the liberals will never reach the middle where they are a choice for 90% of voters.

  11. hawgwash says:

    Something I left out of my previous post was that Singh thing with Tik Tok, which I had not heard of until a few days ago.

    I found it silly, it slightly lowered my view of him and if this is the way of the future, I want no part of it.
    https://m.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/jagmeet-singh-tiktok_ca_5dacfc4fe4b08cfcc31dbee1

  12. e.a.f. says:

    DBW, point 3. Agreed. Actually liked Stanfield and Clark and considered them better than say, Paul Martin.

    Now we will have to wait and see what the Conservative Party does. Do the knives comes out of the closet, does Scheer resign (doubt it), do they hold a leadership review, will Ambrose be recruited to lead the party?

    The next four years will demonstrate whether Trudeau gets another term after this one. Its up to him to demonstrate what he can do, which includes playing nicely with the rest of them in their sandbox. Although he lost Ralph Goodale, he still has his finance, defense, and foreign affairs ministers

    I’m still o.k. with all the election results this morning.

    (Response: The problems Scheer had were somewhat of his own making. Yes … Conservative policies were clearly rejected by most voters … but I believe he did himself a LOT of harm by failing to mention his own dual citizenship, while questioning others’; by his nastiness in personally attacking Trudeau rather than sticking to policies; by refusing to attend ANY gay pride events anywhere in the country; and by refusing to repudiate or even deny/confirm whether the party had ANY role in hiring a political “hit” squad to denigrate and try to destroy Bernier/People’s Party of Canada. The public clearly will forgive sins, but once a politician’s credibility is stained (ask Trudeau!) …it becomes very hard to overcome. h.o.)

  13. Gene The Bean says:

    Harvey in the spirit of ‘keeping it real’ lets look at the popular vote issue.

    Conservatives got more votes in AlbertaBama (34 seats) than in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces combined (110 seats). Seems like Trudeaumania is alive and well in Mulletville!

    Heard a clip earlier from Scheer saying that he isn’t going to allow Trudeau to continue to divide the country. You cant make this stuff up! Just more proof that the Cons really do live in a vacuum.

  14. Harry Lawson says:

    Harvey,

    We ask how could the conservatives lose ?

    They lost the soft to moderate conservatives a long time ago. When a party tends to go to the extremes you lose moderate support.

    The liberals were brilliant to try to paint Ford on to Scheer

    For the longest time after Sheer became leader he was missing in action. The public did not get a chance know him. .

    The conservatives need to take a long hard look inward and make some changes or else they will go the way of the Oldsmobile.

    (Response: I actually thought the repeated references to Ford were getting a bit tired/overdone … but seems to have worked, esp in the “905” area. I agree, though, that it took a long time for Scheer to emerge with any real public persona … and when it did, I never detected much “warmth” or “sincerity” or “charisma” … something Trudeau had a lot of his first time around … although much less in the recent campaign. Singh seemed to have all that … but clearly voters were looking for something else. h.o)

  15. BMCQ says:

    There is a lot to unpack in the aftermath of this election .

    First of all Alberta is not going anywhere and once again Media is attempting to sell Western separatism without B.C. . Without B.C., there is only two perhaps three land locked Provinces and that will not work .

    Before Harper I might have thought that the four western provinces would have made a very viable country and it would have worked but not what they are trying to sell now, that is just silly .

    I believe there are many reasons why the Conservatives failed and there are many reasons why the Greens and NDP are in Free Fall but we also must look at the 26 Seats lost by the Liberals, do we have a Failure in Leadership right across Canada at the Federal Level ? Something is up and I do not believe the current batch of Federal Leaders have any idea how to regain support .er

    Having said that with things as they now stand the Federal Government will do a lot of Huffing an Puffing but absolutely nothing will get accomplished .

    It will be just more of the symbolism, tokenism, and bloviating about climate Change, First nations, Immigration, with nothing about an Opioid Fix, Seniors, Crime, Open Borders, Migration without controls, and the rest of the PC SJW Puffery, Palm and Circumstance we have become accustomed to from PM Justin and his new supporting staff .

    The Conservatives had a Golden Opportunity but they managed to “Grasp Defeat from the Jaws of Victory”, simple as that .

    PM Justin and the NDP were set up to fail and Mr. Scheer spent the past two years ensconced in the Witness Program and when he came out he was very vanilla, has not much substance, no wit, no debating skills, and no honest effective sarcasm .

    The NDP and Greens were both a Spent Force and they are now way past their “Best Before Date”, they need change as well .

    PM Justin was/is inept, impotent, disengaged and represents nothing more than silly slogans and pompous self promotion yet the Liberals still won by Default .

    How did the Bloc experience so much growth while PM Justin was leading this nation?

    We will enter a period of 4 years where nothing gets accomplished, there will be NO Pipelines, increased Carbon, perhaps increased Sales Tax, Income Tax, Corporate Tax, Cap Gain Tax, and so much more as Alberta and Sask will now be the two provinces with no growth potential and we may not even have one “HAVE” Province within 18 months . the Funding for Social Programs and all of the rest needs to come from somewhere and if the economy will not be stimulate through the Harvesting of Natural Resources we have nothing, absolutely nothing .

    Canadians need answers very quickly and personally I do not believe that the Liberals propped up by the NDP have any, we are in serious trouble .

    to use a Canadian Winter Analogy, the Canadian economy will be stuck and skidding much like a Car attempting to navigate Oak St. Hill in Vancouver on a snowy, icy windy night in January, we are not going anywhere any time soon .

    I feel horrible for the people of Canada but I especially feel horrible for the Good People of Alberta, what have we done ? What makes some people so hateful, so petty, and what makes them such a Bully ?

    I am going to guess that 99 out of 100 that participate here want to see people of ALL Provinces healthy and Prosperous, why would you not ?

    Four Years is a long time People Kind, hang onto your Hats and get ready for a dreadfully frightening ride .

    (Edited for length.)

    Finally, Not Much will get done but i believe they need to get the Pipeline in place and actually operational and they need to do something about Pharma and assist Seniors, they deserve much better .

    ………………

    Thanks again Harvey

    Sorry for the type o’s, I am usually in a hurry and when I am on an I Pad things have a life of their own .

    (Response: I disagree when you say nothing will get done. The history of minority governments in Canada show that quite a LOT often gets done in minority situations when parties are forced to work together. The truth is the Libs ad NDP on not that far apart on many issues … and I suspect the NDP will be happy to see “progress” on things they care about … even if it means supporting programs and stances that don’t go quite as far as they would like. Although no doubt what they see/do as “progress” you will not see in a similar way! h.o)

  16. Eleanor Gregory says:

    More than anything, this election was interesting–“interesting” as that word is used in the curse “may your life be interesting”. I was very pleased that Jody Wilson-Raybould was elected. She is the MP for my riding and I sure didn’t hesitate to vote for her. Hopefully, various independently-minded and principled individuals in all the parties will have an opportunity to get involved, and even work together, in running things.

    (Response: As you may have noticed, I had written in an earlier Blog that I too am in Vancouver Granville and JWR had my vote … and why. She will have a challenge being heard as an Independent in the House of Commons, but somehow I feel given the current situation, her views and her vote will be much more important than individual independent MPs usually are. ho.)

  17. BMCQ says:

    Harvey – response to BMCQ

    The Liberals have really accomplished nothing over the past 4 years and that with a very strong majority, why would anyone think that the NDP would work with the Liberals on any Pipeline Project for example, that project appears to be the most important of all and it has been ready to go for how long ? I would really like to see a list of the accomplishments of the Liberal Government .

    Can anyone honestly believe that the NDP will jump up to assist to expedite any Pipeline Project ?

    I believe this very project wil still be a “Pipe Dream” this time next year .

    Other than more Taxes I would be more than happy to congratulate the “Liberal Democratic Party of Canada “ on any worthwhile Legislation they might be able to enact, I want to see any Government succeed once the Election is over, that is what being a Canadian should all be about .

    One thing for sure, unlike some here I do not hate other Canadians just because they might be from Alberta .

    (Response: It’s not Trudeau and/or the Liberals …it’s the Courts …. and their successful manipulation by those who oppose the project … that have kept the trans Canada pipeline from proceeding. The problem is the system … and no government can avoid that … without changing the laws …and good luck with that!. BUT I do believe it WILL proceed …with Tory help getting it …finally … through Parliament. h.o)

  18. Gilbert says:

    Let me begin by saying that I love Alberta and Saskatchewan. The Liberals elected no one in those two provinces, lost seats and lost the popular vote, so they did not have a great victory. But of course I’m disappointed.

    Andrew Scheer’s American citizenship clearly hurt him. He should have gotten it revoked before the campaign started. I thought more information about Justin Trudeau’s past would emerge, but none did, and the Liberals managed to paint the Conservative leader as a religious extremist. Andrew Scheer should have said at the start of the campaign that he was a social conservative, but if given the honour of representing Canada, he would not legislate on issues such as marriage and abortion. Then he could have said he’d addressed the issue and invite other questions.

    I thought Justin Trudeau showed no class by beginning his speech at the same time as Andrew Scheer. I thought it was disrespectful of him to skip two debates, not answer questions at certain times during the campaign, and hypocritical to use two airplanes. World leaders consider him a child, not an adult. Though Andrew Scheer is younger than Justin Trudeau, my wife says he looks older and more responsible.

    I think Andrew Scheer made a mistake by distancing himself from Doug Ford. He made it seem that Doug Ford was a bad premier, and made people fear his policies would be the same. Though Doug Ford is unpopular in Toronto, he is popular in some parts of Ontario, and I think it would have been good to see the two leaders together. The Conservatives needed to remind voters that Ms.Wynne and Mr. McGuinty bankrupted the province and that fiscal responsibility is important.

    I also wish that Andrew Scheer had said he’d appoint two different people for the positions of Attorney-General and Justice Minister, but he didn’t. Prosecutorial independence is very important in every democracy, and interference gives the impression of corruption. In any case, I’m glad the RCMP investigation into possible obstruction of justice will continue.

    In the future, I hope the Bloc Quebecois will not be allowed to participate in federal debates. In my opinion, it simply doesn’t belong. What other country would allow a separatist party to participate in a national debate? I hope this will be Justin Trudeau’s last term.

  19. Eldon says:

    I could vote Conservative if they made Michael Chong leader. The fact is, if Cons expect to form government, they need to appeal to the moderate voter. The Prairies are a slam dunk. Focus policy initiatives for the rest of us. Your post is spot on.

  20. BMCQ says:

    I fully understand but the Judiciary is increasingly having far too much influence on decisions that must be made for the good of the Country, it is time for Government to Push Back, Canada cannot be bogged down in Court Cases much like Quick Sand where Special interests can literally cripple our Economy and in fact threaten the very standard of living that Canadians now take for granted .

    The Government needs to show and take Leadership and the judiciary must be challenged, how many $ Millions of Tax Payers Dollars must be wasted just so Leftist Judges can use their power to Pander to Special Interest SJW ?

    Enough is Enough, time for the Feds to step up and there is no better time than right now with TPX .

    The “Notwithstanding Clause” is for the Greater Good of ALL Canadians, not just a select few .

    Please do not tell me that there are not Leftist Judges and that Justice is Blind, if that was the case there would not be such a fight over the appointment of federal Supreme Court Justices in the U.S., Canada, or anywhere else for that matter .

    http://www.mapleleafweb.com/features/notwithstanding-clause-section-33-charter

    Canada cannot afford to watch PM Justin Fiddle while Rome Burns !!

    I do agree that the Conservatives will Vote “YES” but that does not change the fat that $ Millions of Tax Payer Dollars have been Squandered simply to placate Special Interests .

    Ask yourself, just how many MRI or CT Scanners could have been set up over Canadian Provinces or how many Seniors Centres could have been built for the cost of some of our frivolous Law Suits Federally and Provincially in Canada ?

  21. 13 says:

    Harvey this should be off topic but it was allowed up the page so I would like to take a short few words to express my disappointment with the insults that a poster has leveled at Alberta.
    My mother was born in Holden Alberta she was one of 16 children. I still have two aunts living one in Toronto and one in Cold Lake Alberta. I couldnt begin to list my cousins that have lived in Alberta all of their lives. Many are farmers many work in the oil and gas sectors. Allof them are hard working and successful. I was born in Vancouver but my younger brother was born in Edmonton. My best friend that I have known and kept in touch with for 63 years owns a business in Edmonton (A GARDEN CENTER) and employs probably 15 people full time with benefits.
    To read stuff like Albertabama is insulting, low brow and pathetic. For that matter one of my sons lived in Alabama for sometime. Mullets, knuckledraggers, uneducated!!!!!!! Makes me sick.
    And hes worried about the length of a post

  22. Cora says:

    I read your blog regularly and I was not surprised at the letters today. I have family all over Canada. Some are conservative, some are liberal and some like myself change my vote but am usually center or left.
    I don’t believe that any of these people are stupid or ignorant. The people complaining that Trudeau started speaking before Sheer finished are correct, is was rude. But by the same token Sheer beginning before Singh finished was rude as well.
    It was a disappointing campaign. What an example to set for our younger generation.

    (Response: I actually laughed at how the “leaders” were stepping all over one another, pushing for the spotlight …even after the polls were closed. I don’t know why Scheer had to butt in on Singh … not very polite, unless he was so disappointed he just wanted to get it done and get out of there … but I am very suspicious, despite any denials, that Trudeau’s pushing Scheer off the main stage was deliberate … probably because of the several nasty personal insults … not just policy differences .. Scheer and his campaign hurled at Trudeau during the campaign. And have to admit, for me, that was the most enjoyable and memorable part of what any of them said. h.o)

  23. Crankypants says:

    The way I see it is the Liberals can operate as if they have a majority for as long as they want given the NDP’s financial predicament. It will take more than a few years for the NDP to raise enough moolah to fight the next election.

    Today the Premier of New Brunswick has said they will capitulate to some type of carbon pricing scheme to comply with the federal government’s wishes.

    Today Doug Ford congratulated Justin Trudeau on his victory and thanked him for the federal government’s contribution to some rapid transit projects. I suspect this may have been a shot at Andrew Scheer for bringing in Jason Kenney to stump for him in Ontario.

    I know that Andrew Scheer states he isn’t going anywhere anytime soon but the party may have a different idea. He had everything in his favour and blew it.

    The ball is in Trudeau’s court and if he doesn’t clean up his act we may see two new leaders of the Liberals and Conservatives come next election.

  24. 13 says:

    So the first time Trudeau got elected many people looked forward to great things happening , those that were suspect of Justins abilities told them selves “dont worry his advisers/handlers will look after him”.
    This latest election has handed him another opportunity to make great thing happen. Just heard he has a 10 am news conference. Hopefully his advisers/ handlers might have told him to show a bit of humility and perhaps apologize (a JT strong point)for his behavior on election night.
    So being in the camp of those that are suspect of Justins abilities. Heres my take on the next 4 (or less) years.
    Justin Trudeau is a narcissistic personality. He will have learned from his first 4 years that he can get away with just about anything from coercing the attorney general, to playing dress up , lying, mistreating women (its a long and often repeated list).
    Knowing that he is made of teflon and understanding his personality I see a government that realizes that it can pretty much can do as it pleases. Plenty of bluster plenty of flash , travel, entourage, pompous behavior.
    Not a lot of sound government. Not a lot of prosperity. Not much improvement with international relations, an abundance of apologies made to each and every group of minorities. Like Harvey said “one day that changed Canada for YEARS” God help us all.

  25. Gene The Bean says:

    Have discussed the election with many people and most are satisfied. Even traditional conservative voters (unlike the Cons here) who see the big picture and want what is best for the country agree that Scheer is just a cardboard cutout and has the leadership qualities of a seagull. One acquaintance put it best by essentially saying the conservative party and 90% of its followers just refuse to open their eyes to todays realities. And before I could say it, he said that conservatives have to get back to policies and platforms that attract people from the centre to the right, like 30 years ago, and not cater to the alt-right Mulletville residents who wouldn’t care if the country burned to the ground as long as “their guy” was in power.

    Hanging on and continually ringing the bell of TCC just shows how shallow the water is right of centre. A miniscule public works project that all Canadians shouldn’t have to pay for as it supports for-profit companies. Just a little bump on a log compared to running an entire country and as you point out, the delays are not government driven, the Libs tried to expedite but “the system” is holding it up.

    Facts are so inconvenient to those right of centre.

    (Edited…)

  26. BMCQ says:

    Hope I am close to being on topic with this as the JWR Thread is closed .

    I stated on that Thread that I would like to see JWR successful in that Van Gran Riding even though I might disagree with her much of the time and after more reflection I feel very strongly that Canadian Voters owed nothing JWR and Philpott much more than they gave, the Voters should have Voted both of them with resounding Victories with the highest percentage of the popular Vote in each Riding .

    Philpott and JWR showed Canadians what Democracy, Integrity, Character, Courage, and Principle really mean and in a way we failed them both .

    JWR should have received much more and it is a travesty of justice that Philpott is not returning to Ottawa . A real slap in the face, I hope she can forgive Voters .

    I wish Philpott much success .

    (Response: I’m glad she won …and I know from correspondence there are other Vancouver Granville voters who read my blog endorsing her … so hopefully she will not disappoint us in exercising her independent voice. h.o)

  27. Horace B. says:

    Questions for the blog: what steps would any rebellious Liberals have to take, in order to challenge Trudeau’s leadership? And could J. W. Raybould enter such a contest as an independent?

    (Response: I would really be interested if others think that will happen? Personally, I don’t … because I believe Trudeau is personally still in quite a secure position and actually will not have as hard a time at governing as many believe. As for JWR she may play a role in the party down the road …in a few years … but not until she/Trudeau/party make peace … and I don’t see that happening until well after the SNC Lavalin case is dealt with and well beyond them. h.o)

  28. e.a.f. says:

    As I skimmed through the comments, saw: the Greens and NDP are in a “free fall”. Not so much. The Greens actually hung on to the Nanaimo riding, which had 30K fewer voters when Manley was elected a few months ago and gained a seat in the Maritimes. Now, some may say it isn’t much, but given they only had one seat originally, gaining two, isn’t bad. Dedication and hard work sometimes goes a very long way.

    The NDP lost seats, but they aren’t in what I’d call a free fall. They are simply back where they traditionally have been. No one counted on Jack Layton doing as well as he did and given Quebecers voting patterns, which are of advantage to them, as Harvey explained, the NDP is simply back at where they have traditionally been.

    There were some “strange” things happening over the past 15 years or so with Harper forming government and the NDP being official opposition and the federal Liberals relegated to the side lines, more or less. Now things are back to what has historically been “normal”. My take on it is/was Quebec wanted to get what they wanted and their traditional choices hadn’t delivered so they gave Layton a try. That didn’t work so they’re back to the Bloc. I don’t know what made up most of the Bloc’s voters. If they’re rural and older, the older ones may die off in the next two terms and that will change politics in Quebec again.

    As to Scheer hvign the most votes/seats and not being P.M. Its not that different when harper was P.M. the other parties did have more seats and when they “ganged up” on him he prologued parliament. If any one is concerned that the Conservatives had more votes but fewer seats, they can blame Harper. It was during his “reign” that there was seat re distribution and some of them were down right weird, cutting the Comox Valley in half and putting Powell River in with half of the valley????? Putting the other half in with Qualiquam and Parksville???????? My conclusion was they were hoping to win with adding areas with more Conservative voters. Putting part of Burnaby in with North Vancouver, give the old head a shake.

    You reap what you sow. Scheer, as Harvey explained, did some ‘unwise’ things and he is paying for it as is Trudeau for his ‘sins’. JWR was rewarded for her efforts as were the Greens and the NDP they’re back to the days of Broadbent.

    Being the party in power doesn’t always make the big changes. Just have a look at history and how we got CPP and our health care system.
    Think Elijai Harper/Chuck Cadman for one person making a real difference in our country.

    The Conservatives in my opinion are not going to form government as long as they have Scheer as leader and won’t go back to the center. they’re just a fringe party, with a lot of seats in the House. they may want to look for some one who is a little less arrogant, a little less “hateful”, a little less hypocritical. I don’t like what Bernier and the PP party stands for but to hire some one (Kinsella) to do a “job” on them is simply not on for me, especially when they deny it. Had Scheer “owned’ what he did and said he wanted to expose the PP party for what it truly was, fine, but then Scheer isn’t that honest. Lets not forget the boy stood there with the racist types at the Ottawa truck rally. Now its agreed not every one knows who their picture is being taken with, but in the case of that picture, it wasn’t hard to see who it was being taken with.

    Canadians were pretty clear about the PP party/Bernier and until the Conservatives drop their similar attitudes they may just remain out in the field.

  29. Art Smith says:

    Hi Harvey, I wouldn’t get my hopes too high for JWR being independent, she has already stated she will probably vote with the Liberals on most things. I think, if she has greater ambitions than being an MP, she will have to prove to be a good Liberal who was treated shabbily by her boss, and try to get back in the good graces of the party for a run at the leadership, after they dump the empty vessel, Trudeau.

    (Edited…off topic)

    (Response: I could see her joining the Liberals again sometime …but not for quite some time. I think Trudeau realizes how much damage she did to him and the Liberal brand … way beyond her riding … by standing up to him and taking a principled, ethical stand for uncompromised justice. And he must send a message to others who might otherwise do the same … and keeping her “on the outs” is how they do that. h.o)

  30. hawgwash says:

    What we don’t know and perhaps Trudeau doesn’t either, is how many in the Liberal caucus supported JWR in her SNC stance, but remained silent, for obvious reasons and I suspect JWR knows who they are, if any.

    Maybe none, maybe enough to make it interesting, over time.

  31. 13 says:

    LOL eaf describing Sheer
    “a little less arrogant, a little less hateful, a little less hypocritical”. Sheer?????? I can see Justin Trudeau fitting that description to a tee. Add a little less of a liar, a little more ethical, a little more honest, a little more gravitas, a little more intelligent.

  32. 13 says:

    Hawg, you strike me as a union member ,past or present. If thats the case and using the union adage “an injury to one is an injury to all” a very noble sentiment how does silent unspoken support in JWRs dust up with her boss work? Philpott gave her support and lost her job and lost the election. The other 181 “coworkers” (cowards) stood by and did nothing. They might have removed mirrors in order to not have to look at themselves.

  33. Keith says:

    Been looking forward to this post Harvey.

    I along with many others was glad to see Jodi Wilson Raybould win, it not only said a lot about her, but also the people that voted for her. Also sad to see Jane Philpot, Ralph Goodale and especially Lisa Raitt not re-elected, all of whose voices and experience would be great benefit to a minority govt. Lisa Raitt was an excellent voice of reason and common sense for the cons. which they will need.

    The pundits that predicted a minority and polls that predicted J T. would be a better choice for prime minister were more or less right, and Raif Mair’s axiom was correct again, Trudeau won an unpopularity contest.

    A minority govt. is what it is so get on and govern the country, and if it curbs the dictatorial style of the P.M.O so much the better.

    The last line of your post said;

    “Canada has changed … and, if they want to win, the Tories must as well.”

    I believe this also has to extend to the hard-core supporters that come up with often vitriolic commentary and criticism of others that don’t share their views, but do little to further the cause of theirs, try the comment sections of the National Post. I have a couple of right wing ex-colleagues ( both of whom are collecting provincial pensions and have never worked outside of govt.) that often send me stuff from the various sources of info. which may get them an LOL or right on dude from the folks in their own echo chamber, but does nothing to encourage a-political folks like me look at conservatism. To paraphrase Grouch Marx, “ why would I want to join a club that has them as members.”

    The irony now of not adding to the political discourse but just slagging Trudeau and the liberals, is that he and they got the top job twice in succession. In the first instance a prime minister that most just wanted gone by virtue of him being in the right place at the right time, in the second as you described Harvey, despite having baggage, scandal and idiocy stuck to him. For conservatives, it’s not about Trudeau, but about them and what they do about expanding their appeal. I’m not that confident they will.

    (Response: You’ve touched on something I have also noticed ad wondered about for many years: how overtly and overly partisan supporters can HURT their own candidates and causes more than help. When people discuss issues and propose better ways or alternatives, I think they can convince others and win support among the undecided. However, when they hurl insults and vitriol and call names and level insults, I don’t think they realize how much that turns OFF voters …to the point of actually leading people to have sympathy for the “victim” and then vote AGAINST the leader or party the commenter supports. It’s like seeing the same political ad … four or five or six times … all within an hour on the same tv show. Ugh! That turns me OFF big time…. just tells me they have LOTS of money …maybe too much! h.o)

  34. hawgwash says:

    13…That’s why I say we don’t know and most likely JWR does.

    There is a case to be made, that JWR knew the position of others at the time, knew she could handle it without sending the willing lambs to the slaughter.

    She is noble, after all and street smart.

    Aces in the hole, keep yer powder dry and all that.

  35. Gilbert says:

    The Liberal Party of today is different from the party of Jean Chretien and Paul Martin. It used to be a fiscally conservative party. It has moved to the left and is now not so different from the NDP. Former Liberal MP Dan McTeague is no fan of the prime minister.

    Gerald Butts, the former president and CEO of the World Wildlife Fund, has many tweets that are anti-oil and pro-climate change. Who truly believes that he will fight passionately to get pipelines built across Canada? On Tuesday Husky Energy announced that many workers in Calgary will be laid off, and a number of energy companies in Alberta are preparing to leave the country. They would have stayed if the Conservatives had won. In Alberta we are seeing declining investment and slow growth.

    The economy is fine now, and that is largely due to the strong economy in the USA. To all the socialists here, let me ask two questions: If Justin Trudeau overspends in good times, how much will he overspend in bad times? How much would he have overspent during the Global Financial Crisis? Mark my words. If the Canadian economy worsens, the Liberals will be in trouble.

    Eastern Canada should show more appreciation for the contribution that Alberta has made to the Canadian economy. The province has not been treated fairly.

  36. hawgwash says:

    Keith…”Also sad to see Jane Philpot, Ralph Goodale and especially Lisa Raitt not re-elected, all of whose voices and experience would be great benefit to a minority govt. Lisa Raitt was an excellent voice of reason and common sense for the cons. which they will need.”

    I wholeheartedly agree and the fantasiser in me, sees the makings of a good group of collaborating independents, that could attract others. I’ve been advocating for independents for a long time and over and over again, Vicki Huntington reinforced that.

    Not sure about Goodale straying too far from the Liberal family, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Wilson-Raybould, Philpott and Raitt meet for drinks.

    Done right, there could be a whole new no slate, slate, in the future.
    —————————-
    Harvey, your response to Keith…”how overtly and overly partisan supporters can HURT their own candidates and causes more than help…when they hurl insults and vitriol and call names and level insults, I don’t think they realize how much that turns OFF voters”

    I found that right here in your last few blogs, leading up to the election.

    Again and again, I found myself saying; ”man, if that is what a Conservative is, I could NEVER vote for them; ever.” It destroyed all sense, of my willingness to even listen.

    (Response: Politics is as much an art of persuasion as it is the ability to come up with ideas and policies. When people who are clearly partisan “lose it” and spew personal venom at those they oppose … or their supporters … they actually discredit their own “brand”. That’s why a Pepsi ad may say many Coke drinkers who tried Pepsi preferred Pepsi … for its fresh, new taste etc. but they don’t insult or call Coke drinkers names …or suggest Coke is the worst drink ever or call the President of Coke a fraud etc. Clearly that does not work. h.o)

  37. e.a.f. says:

    the pundits are talking a lot today about western alienation, but it makes you wonder how they came to that conclusion. Yes, if you look at the electoral map its pretty blue in Alberta and Sask, but Alberta has 4,37l M people. The Conservatives received a total of 6,155,662 or 34.4% of the vote Canada wide, which leads me to conclude a lot of people in Alberta voted for other parties also.

    Quebec’s pop. is 8,485M. The Bloc received a total of 1,376,135 votes for 15.9% of votes for Canada. so even though that translates to 32 seats a lot of other people voted for other parties. The head line in one paper is, Bloc retakes Quebec. OMG, like give it a break. Back in the day they had over 50 seats.

    Now I haven’t seen a break down by party, for each province and am too lazy to go count them all, but I’d thinks the headlines are exaggerating. Caught a brief statement by one anyalist saying about as many people voted Liberal in NFLD as did in Alberta, it just translated differently.

    Before head lines are written regarding western allianation, Kenny wanting a western exit, Quebec has been “retaken” by the B.Q. some one ought to count up how many people voted for each party in each province. then we could actually make a comment based on the numbers.

    If we look at % only the NDP received 15.9% of the vote while the Bloc received 7.7% of the vote and the Greens 6.5%. You’d think with percentages like that the Greens would have way more seats, but it all depends upon where those votes are actually located.

    Mr. Scheer ought to remember although the Conservatives received 6,155,662 votes
    the Liberals received: 5,915,950
    NDP 2,849,214
    B.Q 1,376,135
    Greens 1,162,361
    PP 292,703
    Indep. 71,854
    Christian Heritage 18,816

    Didn’t add it up but it looks like the other parties had over 10M people vote for them, so Mr. Scheer ought to think again. Way more people voted for other parties, so they didn’t want him.

    Alienation sounds fun, makes for big headlines, but until I see the votes for each province by party, my take on things is, we’re just about where we always are give or take

    (Response: You will likely find my next blog really interesting. h.o)

  38. nonconfidencevote says:

    @Gilbert
    “On Tuesday Husky Energy announced that many workers in Calgary will be laid off, and a number of energy companies in Alberta are preparing to leave the country. They would have stayed if the Conservatives had won. In Alberta we are seeing declining investment and slow growth…..”
    ++++

    A tried and true industry tactic (usually to hammer an unpopular govt).
    Industry rolls up its jobs and leaves town.
    Alberta shot themselves in the foot when they elected NDP’s Rachael Notly….the business exodus started.
    Then Trudeau dithered and stumbled over the pipeline upgrade ( Lets face it. the pipeline is already there they are upgrading the existing infrastructure).
    So now Trudeau is re-elected in a minority govt.
    Business aint happy.
    The “squeeze” is on.
    Personally I think the oil fracking in the US has kiboshed the price of oil for a while.
    And as I sat in traffic yesterday in my gas guzzlier a chevy volt whizzed passed and I actually may consider going electric with my next purchase……

    Oil is yesterdays coal…..
    Alberta needs to slowly wean itself off the black gold.

  39. 13 says:

    @noncon I wonder how many posters on this blog that dont have a public sector pension plans can think about buying an electric car. Please accept my apology (now I sound like Trudeau) if I have guessed wrong

  40. Gene The Bean says:

    Nonconfidence, you hit the nail on the head, again.

    This has been going on in AlbertaBama for at least 40 years. They know they aren’t getting as much corporate welfare so they say they’ll pick up their diapers and pacifiers and leave until “the economy is more favourable” which really means “until a government is elected that will let us do whatever we want and will gives us taxpayer money by the truckload.”

    They can all go pound sand.

    There is still lots of $$ to be made in AlbertaBama even with the current price of crude but 1) the foreign owned oil companies don’t just want to make a profit, they want to make tons of profit, 2) the Norway example should be used. Oil companies just cant come and go on a whim and treat employees like trash there. They are in – or out. Everybody wins. That’s probably why the Cons hate it. Nothing makes a Con happier than making money while others don’t.

  41. 13 says:

    Non con you hit the nail on the head.

    (Edited…make your points without hurling so many insults )

  42. e.a.f. says:

    13, you don’t need a public sector job to own an electric car. most people I know have hybrids and they’re retired. If I should by some accident purchase another vehicle in this life time, it will be a hybrid, if its a pick up truck or van. However, I do think my vehicles will get me through to the end of my time.

    An electric car isn’t that expensive. It not cheap, but its not a BMW or Rolls Royce. Its less expensive than smoking, drinking, gambling, using expensive cell phones and internet is about $75 a month alone. its all relative.

    Now it maybe we may see some changes, given Trudeau has said there may/will be tax cuts for the middle class, what ever that defines, and the money will have to come from some where. With climate change being a big deal this election, the oil/gas companies may see a reduction or elimination of tax breaks, “incentives” and all that.

    Alberta needs to get over itself and Jason needs to stop stamping his cow boy boots. Alberta used to be a have not province. Then they found oil. It maybe that as oil becomes less of a product the province goes back to what it once was, not as rich as the rest of the country. It is rather funny, that these “capitalists” in Alberta all want something at the expensive of other.

    Jason needs to look to the future. Alberta has good systems in place, its a great place to live, they might want to sell themselves as a new IT headquarters. They hve the office space, housing is cheaper than Vancouver, the whole urbran west coast of North America is pretty expensive. Good airports as I recall.

  43. 13 says:

    Harvey your response to 13 re insults made no sense. All I did was mimic another poster that seems to always be allowed the latitude to call conservatives and their supporters and the regions they live in names. I figured that you might see how using euphemisms
    with derogatory connotations drags the discourse down. Oh well nothing ventured nothing gained. I gave it a shot.
    BTW I read the post before I sent it and thought to myself “what a pile of s–t” I dont blame you for scraping it.

    (Response: I hate editing stuff: it wastes a lot of my time! And yet, people don’t seem to realize or respect that. I TRY to show great latitude … but when a post is just full of derogatory references … it has no redeeming value for my Blog … and deserves to be trashed. h.o)

  44. 13 says:

    @eaf, “an electric car isnt that expensive.” in the next breath you say”its not cheap”.
    Covering all the basses. It is incredibly presumptuous to make that statement. For fun I looked up the price of a Nissan Leaf. $44,000.00 Base sticker this does not include any tax (you love tax) or interest on a car loan likely amortized over 60 to 84 months. Its unaffordable for anyone in my tax bracket , unless your planning on living in the damned thing.

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