Keeping it Real…

Let’s face it …  on Election night, the only numbers that will really count will be the number of seats in the House of Commons won by each party.

Oh sure, there will be all kinds of discussion about voter turnout, pre-vote polling indicators, and even the percentage of popular vote received. But the most important figure will be number of seats won, because that number alone will determine which party (or coalition?) will take power.

But what are the most important numbers DURING the campaign? You may think they are the latest polling results, ranking party against party, candidate against candidate,  the tallies of top concerns of Canadians or even figures adding up the total  cost of all their election promises. 

You would be wrong.

On my six day holiday swing to Montreal and Toronto this past week … it soon became clear:  the MOST IMPORTANT numbers in this federal election campaign are “514″ , “418″ , “905″ and “416″ !

These are the telephone area codes for the largest concentrated areas of voters in Quebec and Ontario.  More seats there than all of BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba combined! And the parties … especially the Liberals and the Conservatives are reflecting that in their campaign schedules, their localized spending promises, and their massive regional advertising campaigns aimed at Ontario and Quebec voters … never shown in BC.

BC is but a day trip … a service road stop  …  running beside the real super highways to power in Canada: the Queen E Way, the 427, the Gardiner, the DVP, the 401 and the 2 and 20 running all the way from Hamilton to Quebec City.

There’s no coincidence that NDP lLeader Jack Layton laid out his FULL campaign platform Sunday in Toronto and Dion earlier revealed his in Ottawa. Harper’s and May’s FULL platforms are still pending. While individual policy announcements are made throughout the country … designed more to feed the media mass accompanying each tour ..the BIG announcements so far have been made where it really counts … in Ontario and Quebec.  

Ontario alone, with its population of 11.5 million will deliver a whopping 106 Commons seats; Quebec, with 7.2 million residents, will  add another 75 …. that’s a total of 181 seats out of the total available nationwide : 308.

And the Conservatives are making their biggest push ever for seats in Quebec, pinning their hopes on grabbing enough seats from the Bloc …  even a couple from the Liberals … to form their majority. So when you are down there, in Toronto or Montreal,  hardly two days go by before you can see Stephen Harper or Stephane Dion or the NDP’s Jack Layton campaigning somewhere in or around that area!

While the Conservative and Liberal leaders can count their campaigning in BC (with its 36 seats) in hours at a time  … they are devoting days upon days in Quebec and Ontario, battling for the hearts and minds and votes of  the electorate there, who really do seem to count for a lot more!

And even if you do not have the slightest command in French, I recommend you check out each party’s French official Campaign internet site: check out the TV ads … especially those of the Tories. They not only understandably concentrate their attacks against the Bloc, but they openly promise Quebec a lot more muscle in Otawa under the Conservatives  … try this one in particular: http://www.conservative.ca/FR/4579/  and click on the “Nationaliste” video link or the ad entitled “Le Quebec Prends La Force”  (Quebec is Getting Stronger)   … a really fascinating look at the type of campaign ad aimed at Quebeckers. 

All the leaders tell British Columbians how important we are when they are out here … and they no doubt say the same in the Maritimes and on the Prairies. But pay attention to their schedules and you will discern exactly where they really believe their best chances to win new seats for power lie. And it’s not BC this time around.

 Why is that so important? Because no doubt … once more … to the victors, and those who give them the most seats,  will go the spoils!