Trudeau Will Aim at Green/NDP Voters Who Want Climate Action to Vote Liberal … and Block the Tories

There’s good reason Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau has been repeatedly emphasizing and promising more action on climate change and reducing carbon emissions.

It is not to appeal to his party’s own base: they are already on board; it’s not to try and convince Tory supporters about the need for greater environmental actions: they have already rejected both him and his policies; and, it’s not even aimed at ridings where the NDP and Greens are fighting it out for the seat.

No … the Liberals are aiming at NDP/Green supporters in ridings where the raging battles are between local Liberal and Conservative candidates … and there is no REALISTIC hope that the Green/NDP candidate will win the seat.

The Liberals believe Climate Change and the Environment is THE major issue for many, many voters in this election campaign … especially Millennials and other younger voters.

In other words, the selling point will be … for NDP/Greens … that the Liberals represent the least of two evils over the Conservatives … majority or minority … in both majority/minority scenarios if they REALLY want action on climate issues.

Here’s why:

Friday, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer released his party’s full platform .. highlighting tax breaks, spending cuts, increased health and benefits spending: https://www.conservative.ca/andrew-scheer-reveals-his-plan-for-you-to-get-ahead/

The Liberal platform is also on-line: https://2019.liberal.ca/our-platform/?utm_source=2019.liberal.ca&utm_medium=platform-casgrain

The full NDP platform is here: https://www.ndp.ca/commitments ; and the Greens’ platform is now also on-line: https://www.greenparty.ca/en/platform

And the Liberals are gambling on something more than just the usual platform/promises.

Trudeau and the Liberal strategists are hoping that … in the privacy of the voting booth … those NDP/Green sympathizers, in realistically unwinnable sets, will help the Liberal take the seat instead … to at least move ahead with more climate action than if Andrew Scheer and the Tories become government.

In fact, Generation Squeeze … a national “research, education and advocacy organization for Canadians in their 20s, 30s and 40s” recently released its analysis of the Climate platforms of the four major national parties.

(You can read their FULL analysis here: https://www.gensqueeze.ca/2019_climate_analysis)

Their conclusion: government led by the Greens would do the most to help limit climate temperature increase to 1.5 degrees or less within the next 10 years; the NDP’s and Liberals’ proposals overall rate about the same.

But they rate the Tories’ climate efforts well behind.

“The Conservatives actually trail behind the other three platforms quite significantly,” GS researcher/spokesman Prof. Paul Kershaw of UBC told Global News Thursday.

“All party platforms except the Conservative Party commit to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below Canada’s 2030 target while pushing to net zero by 2050. The proposed pace of GHGs reduction is clearly the fastest under the Green Party plan and is most consistent with a 1.5dC GHG pathway,” the report concluded.

“All three parties except the Conservative Party also commit to accountability measures to ensure Canada is on track to meet its long-term GHG reduction commitments. The Conservative Party platform does not commit to a specific target in 2030 but subsequent clarification has committed to achieving Canada’s 2030 target. There is no evidence the Conservative Party has committed to net zero GHGs consistent with a GHG pathway to support the attainment of 1.5 degrees,” it states.

So the national research group awarded the Greens its top score; gave the NDP and the Liberals a tie for second ; but gave the Tories a Minus score.

And it won’t help that a Climate Change debate scheduled for the University of Ottawa Oct. 16 was cancelled after the Greens, NDP and Liberals accepted to send a participant, but the Conservatives refused, saying they couldn’t find anyone to take part.

So with only the two main parties likely to form government (majority or minority), that’s why Trudeau/Liberals have been talking the topic wherever and whenever they can … trying to reach out to those Green/NDP supporters who believe climate change IS the main election issue, but vote in ridings likely to be won by one of the two main parties.

Will the message work: Keep Scheer/Tories at bay and keep Trudeau/Liberals in power to advance the fight on climate change and the environment ?

We’ll ALL find out Oct 21.

Harv Oberfeld

(Reminder: You can receive FREE First Alerts of new topics on this BC-based Blog by following @harveyoberfeld.ca. No spam … just FREE First Alerts.)

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44 Responses to Trudeau Will Aim at Green/NDP Voters Who Want Climate Action to Vote Liberal … and Block the Tories

  1. 13 says:

    We are as I said in the last blog topic are “die hard enviros”. We believe in reuse recycle .
    Things we dont believe in :
    Carbon tax as a tool to reduce carbon . CASH GRAB BY GOVS
    The Paris accord. Simple show case for the trough dwellers that arrived in an endless parade of jets and limos.
    Paying more tax on necessary petroleum products. CANADA is cold in the winter. Canada is an enormous country. Food and Doctors and Hospitals and Schools are some times beyond a simple bike ride. Hell sometimes once you leave YVR you might be forced to ride on the shoulder of a road and not in a concrete encased bike lane.
    Thankfully we are a demographic that does get out to vote. We dont live in our parents basement waiting for mommy to look after us.
    We MOST certainly do not support Trudeau because we are not that gullible.
    We are senior citizens

  2. john says:

    I’m really concerned that the populace would vote a party to power based on their promises of battling climate change – something that humankind has very little , if any, control over; and Canada, as a very minor player in CO2 emissions, has even less input. I agree we should try to be good stewards of the planet, but to think we have any control over the climate is preposterous. climate will change and we can’t do very much about it. How about we elect a government that can do positive things for Canada, with a Prime Minister that has some ‘smarts’ rather than be a no nothing fool.

    (Response: I believe many voters would disagree with your assessment/conclusions. The question is whether they will vote at all and, if they do, whether they will vote strategically in ridings where their preferred party has no realistic chance of winning. Under our first-past-the-post system … doing that allows their “second choice” votes to count too…. if they exercise it that way. h.o.)

  3. BMCQ says:

    Please take a “Big Bow” Harvey !!

    An very Astute and Excellent Analysis and Theory of what the strategy the Desperate Liberal Brain Trust of Gerald Butts and his Minions are attempting to carry out in a “Last Ditch Effort” to save as many Seats as possible in various Ridings where the Libs feel they can “Stop the Bleed” .

    You are way ahead of the Professional, Paid, Disengaged, and Unmotivated, Media on this one and you write much better than they do as well .

    Your Analysis on this should be re printed/reported in every Major Media News Outlet right across Canada and they should PAY you fir your “Sterling Effort” !

    (Edited… you can disagree with any study …but you know I don’t countenance personal insults/attacks on my blog.)

    This is one of your very best !

    Thank You

    (Response: Barring any last minute new disclosures, the only remaining questions of this campaign seem to be: whether we’ll end up with a majority or minority by either of the two leading parties … and a LOT will depend on turnout … and strategic voting … if that catches on at all. h.o)

  4. Harry Lawson says:

    Harvey,

    I agree with your assessment of the liberal strategy , great in theory .. however the key is the execution in each riding. We still have over a week to go in the campaign and a lot can happen. I have noticed in mission that several of my neighbors have removed their liberal signs .they have not replaced them with another party. More people are paying attention to the smaller parties especially their demands to prop up a minority government. how is that going to effect strategic voting.?

    (Response: I’m not even sure most people would understand or care about the idea/possibilities of strategic voting under the first-past-the-post system where someone knows they support a likely third or fourth place party in a particular riding, so can then use their vote more effectively to keep out someone/party they really don’t want elected …by holding their nose and voting for the other leading contender. It’s a fascinating strategy … that could help either leading party …but let’s keep it real: NDP/Greens would more likely choose the Lib over the Tory. And of course, in ridings where the raging battle is between the NDP and Greens … the same could apply to normally Lib or Conservative supporters … voting for the one they think, in their view, would do the least damage, rather than just waste their vote in a losing effort. LOL. h.o)

  5. D. M. Johnston says:

    Sadly all what is said politcally about climate change , as Colonel Potter politely called “horse pucky\”, is based on the fact that politicians believe they can tax people any amount to make the region green. This what happens when one has a corrupt political system.

    What we see is Lysenkoism on a vast scale, because the mainstream media has failed in its fiduciary duty of investigative reporting about climate change and merely reports what its shareholders want them to report and not lose further subscribers.

    Lysenkoism In modern usage, the term lysenkoism has become distinct from normal pseudoscience. Where pseudoscience pretends to be science, lysenkoism aims at attacking the legitimacy of science itself, usually for
    political reasons. It is the rejection of the universality of scientific truth, and the deliberate defamation of the scientific method
    to the level of politics.

    (Edited..sorry, trying to keep the topic to the election)

    Not on of the political parties, not even the Greens have any workable climate action plans and all resort to the rhetoric taxing our way out of the climate process and that just will not work.

    Still not going to vote for any of the main parties, why, they are all the same, deceive, destroy and tax us more for the pleasure of elected official and their friends going to international conferences, sight see and learn nothing.

    Mad, you bet I am mad as I feel cheated this election, cheated by the proffessional cheaters hired by the political parties.

  6. BMCQ says:

    Harry

    I agree wholeheartedly in what Harvey Theorizes regarding the possible Liberal Strategy in their attempt to attract Votes with their efforts to appeal to Left of Centre Voters, it makes sense and I feel strongly he is onto something .

    Having said that I also feel that is far too little far too late and the Liberals are in a “Death Spiral” and nothing no matter what can reverse the collapse in support .

    Let’s face it Harry PM Justin is a “Spent Force” he has lost all credibility with Canadians even his own Die Hard Supporters who once would have followed him off a Cliff have finally seen and realized that “The Emperor Has No Clothes” .

    It is long past time for Strategic Voting, even the most ardent Liberal supporter realizes that the Fake Symbolism and Tokenism PM Justin fooled the Canadian Public with for oh so many years has and will fail to hang onto his Base of Voters .

    Even the Phony Barack Obama “Rolled Up Sleeves Act” cannot help poor pathetic PM Justin at this point, the PM has been found out just like the “Wizard of Oz” when the “Curtain was Pulled Back” and the Fraud was Exposed and there was nothing of substance left to see .

  7. Gene The Bean says:

    Harvey, I agree 100%. People want their vote to count.

    The only swing votes are NDP/Green voters when they are alone at the ballot box. Liberal progressives and Con regressives are entrenched.

    The bigger issue is how many true deplorables the PPC steals from the Cons stinky barnyard.

    (Response: After watching both recent debates, I don’t see Bernier and the PPC as being much of a threat to the Conservatives. h.o)

  8. Keith says:

    What you have laid out Harvey is the scenario that in all probability would have kept the Liberals in the driving seat for elections to come when they cynically did away with first past the post without giving it more than lip service, and hanging out to dry two rookie minsters in the process. Frame the debate and the question to get the result they want, make it easy to understand then implement, and the conservatives would be sidelined on their own island.

    So yes, an NDP/Green voter going for a liberal makes sense, they won’t get all they want, but a heck of a lot more than they would with a conservative somewhere in the mix.

    (Response: Your last line< I believe, sums up what the Liberals are hoping for as the vote approaches. So watch for Trudeau etc. to push the "green" part of their platform over the final week in ridings where NDP/Green are running third and fourth and could make a difference to defeat the Tory's lesser climate agenda. h.o)

  9. Gilbert says:

    Many PPC supporters will vote Conservative to keep out Justin Trudeau. Some just want smaller government and no carbon tax. Others want an SNC-Lavalin inquiry. Many Chinese-Canadians are voting Conservative this time.

  10. Gene The Bean says:

    Harvey, I hear ya and I do trust your judgement.

    We have already discovered Bernier is just a bully white nationalist but he will attract voters who think the same and believe the hate about immigration that the right (even here) continue to push out.

    How did those people vote before? NDP? Green? Liberal? I’ll let you stop laughing before I continue.

    They of course, voted Con. So I do believe there will be a slight bleed of votes but as you have pointed out in this post, people want their vote to count and try and form government. Most of those folks will just continue to vote Con but there will be a bleed. I am hoping it is significant, but you are probably right.

    (Response: Yes, indeed “he will attract voters who think the same” …but I really doubt that, except for his own riding, that would generate enough votes to capture ANY riding. And I hear Bernier could even be in trouble in his own riding of Beauce! h.o)

  11. DBW says:

    Another post of yours that got me googling.

    Time gets fuzzy and elections run into each other, but I have a memory of Paul Martin encouraging NDP supporters to vote Liberal in 2004 to ensure that the newly united Conservatives did not get elected.

    I couldn’t find any evidence to support that memory, but I did get reminded while researching of Buzz Hargrove, leader of the Canadian Auto Workers, who was pushing for strategic voting in 2006. He was a member of the NDP but he was asking for people to vote Liberal in ridings where the NDP could not win. After the election he was booted from the NDP.

    I also came across an article from 2012 that said the results of the 2011 election were the death knell of the Liberals because elections in most democracies were between left and right and that centrist parties were usually the third party. Think Britain. I guess the Liberals believed him but instead of dying they shifted leftward in 2015 out NDPing the NDP.

    I also came across an article talking about some of the too close to call elections like this one and being reminded of the Conservatives winning a minority government in 1979 despite losing the popular vote 40% to 36%.

    That’s why I enjoy the 338 site. No doubt polls are often wrong. Nanos, Ipsos, Angus Reid, Leger, and others don’t agree so some of them have to be wrong. But 338 takes all those polls and averages them. Then using margin of error they run thousands – like 250,000 – of simulations to come up with the probabilities. Right now with a week to go the Liberals have a probability of 56% of winning. But with the Conservatives at 43% that is still pretty much a coin flip. And anything can happen in a week.

    If the polls are off by several points in Alberta, the “mistake” is meaningless as the Conservatives will still win the vast majority of seats. But if the poll is off even by 1% in Ontario it can make a huge difference.

    I still think it will be a minority, but no clue which party.

    (Response: I have no doubt that the brass of parties running third or fourth in any given riding would be unhappy philosophically with their “supporters” voting for another leading party in a close one-two race … to keep someone they believe would be even worse from taking power. But the reality is, the damage or setbacks that could be done over four years by the party/leader they fear more could be substantial, so I can understand why some would opt to vote for the “less disliked” opponent … IF that kind of strategic voting even occurs to them. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both the Libs and Tories raise the idea in the next week ..hoping to convince supporters of other minor parties running in “no-hope” races of shifting in their direction. h.o)

  12. Harry Lawson says:

    BCMQ,

    I agree that the Liberals may be in a death spiral, even with strategic voting the left to central vote is split 3 ways. That could be very good news for the conservatives. The shine is definitely off the liberal brand. Mr Trudeau has proven that he is not as advertised.

  13. 13 says:

    Harveys response to GTB. “I hear he could be in trouble”. If Max does not win his own seat it is exactly what his ego deserves. The other ego in this race belongs to Trudeau. He has put himself ahead of everyone that is in anyway connected to him.Two politicians that have put their massive egos ahead of the party they represent. Both deserve the same fate.

  14. hawgwash says:

    NONE OF THE ABOVE….X

    I went early and I went often; my determined 4 attempts at voting were chronicled in the previous blog.

    I could not vote for the Liberals because of what I knew;
    Justin Trudeau is a scofflaw a liar, an alleged serial groper and a hypocrite.

    I could not vote for the Conservatives because of what I didn’t know; I just can’t bring myself to trust a man who, when cornered, replies; “no one asked.” Who is this guy? Where are his loyalties? Who’s side is he on?

    I could not vote for the NDP because I didn’t, on advanced voting day, think they would be a factor.

    So that brought me back to that comfortable place, of parking my vote with a known entity, Ms May.

    Until…
    —I realized, listening to Elizabeth May, I’m listening to a tired old war horse. I believe, if re-elected, she will make this her last term, putting the Green’s future in question.

    —Elizabeth decided temporary workers are a bad thing. Yet, right here, in her riding, farmers are struggling, for a variety of reasons and unless we are willing to pay $5 for a pound of spuds or let the developers take over, those Mexican lads I see with the big smiles, are a win-win.

    —I went to an all candidates meeting. I saw and listened to a bright, articulate, well educated, young woman asking for my vote. I liked what I saw.
    She doesn’t have a hope in hell, of getting elected in this riding, but she needs to know she was noticed and that she should be encouraged to try again, and again.

    No one will win or lose because of my single vote, but think it will count.

    So I voted, not for the NDP, but for Sabina Singh.

    (Response: I like the idea that you at least weighed all the candidates/parties/leaders etc and made your decision … rather than just vote automatically as so many do. Bravo. That’s what I try to do also … and, over the years, have voted for all four major parties h.o)

  15. BMCQ says:

    Harry

    Honestly I just do not see Canadians falling for the PMJustin, Butts, Liberal, and the mostly Fawning Dishonest Manipulative Media “Spin Machine” .

    Then the attempt by so many to even convince Hard Working Tax Paying Canadians already stretched to the limit to vote strategically on top of all the rest ?

    No Harry I believe Canadians that actually work, pay tax, contribute, want to raise families, have pride in completing a good days work and not demanding “Free Stuff”, looking for something for nothing, will not take the Bait and Vote Strategically .

    The NDP have made a Drastic Mistake by anointing Mr. Singh their Leader for all of the wrong silly PC SJW reasons and they themselves are in their final days . As stated earlier Mr. Singh seems like a good person but he is no Party Leader, Singh would have made a decent Federal Liberal Candidate and that is all .

    Instead the NDP “Rolled the Dice” and they will accumulate perhaps less than 15 Seats and within a year the remnants of that once proud Party will merge with the Liberals to become the “Liberal Democratic Party of Canada”, the NDP will soon become a somewhat distant memory thanks to the NDP decision to chose Singh as their Leader .

    Of course once the NDP and Liberals are one they will not be splitting the vote but that discussion can be debated later in the fall of 2o20 .

    May has now proven to be nothing more than a few “Ever-ready” Slogans and it has been most evident during this campaign that she is a Hypocrite just like the other so-called “Enviro Warriors” Clooney, Di Caprio, Di Blasio, Prince Charles, that poor befuddled Harry, the Pope, and so many more, “Do as I say, not as I do” .

    Not one question of May and her Photo Op Straw and Cup during any Debate . Really ?

    So things are now so desperate that Butts now has PM Justin, other Liberal Candidates, and the Media now talking up Strategic Voting .

    I now ask you, does that fill you Conservative Hating Punters on this Blog with Confidence ?

    Please do not all rush to answer at once .

    Anyone with half a brain can conclude that the Liberals have Internal Polling that is signaling “There is Trouble at Pit” and it is time for desperate measures .

    I defy any one on this Blog to come out and tell the rest of us this Strategic Voting gambit does not show a sense of Deep Dark Desperation .

    Yes Harry the Liberals are in a “Panic” and that desperation shows on the face of PM Justin each and every time he steps up to the Podium and begins his poor pathetic attempt at some sort of “Mumbo Jumbo” Speak about nothing that really makes any sense any more .

    How many of you on this Blog will actually throw aside your convictions and principles, defect and actually listen to Butts, PM Justin, the Promoting Media, and Vote Liberal ?

    The Media will really begin to push Strategic Voting and they will do everything they can to mask that promotion as a legitimate news story but their veiled attempt at Voter Manipulation will be oh so very obvious .

    How many of you will they convince ?

    Come to think of it that might even be a good discussion topic on a Blog some time soon .

    I am “Aghast” that the Liberals have actually stooped to this level but I suppose I am not really all that surprised .

    “Desperate People”

    Tick Tock !

    (Response: You have spent a lot of time on here disparaging the Libs, NDP …but I would like your view/explanation of a Globe and Mail story that first made the news three days ago … that the Conservatives are running totally FALSE ads on its Chinese Facebook page saying, if re-elected, the Liberals will legalize all hard drugs: there is NO EVIDENCE ANYWHERE that is true … the LIBS have totally denied it … yet today, there are also radio reports that the Conservatives are now also running robo-call phone call ads in Chinese repeating the very same thing. How disgusting, deceitful and desperate is that???? Here’s the article: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-conservatives-running-facebook-ads-falsely-accusing-liberals-of/ Do they think Chinese speaking voters are more stupid than the rest ..or more easily lied to??? ? Surely there’s enough truthful to criticize about other parties and enough about their own promises the Tories are proud of to avoid that kind of low bar? h.o)

  16. Gene The Bean says:

    https://globalnews.ca/news/6029855/advance-voting-increase/

    Two million more advance poll voters in first two days compared to last election. Good news for progressive voters as they are represent larger percentages in advance polls than the regressives.

    Larger voter turnout also favours progressive parties.

    I see the Cons are really going after the ethnic vote this time – which is painfully ironic in so many ways. As I have said here, once the boomers age out, the Cons are toast …. unless they find another group to buy into the fear and hate.

  17. BMCQ says:

    Harvey

    Please forgive me for defending myself .

    I have not seen or heard the Ads you describe but if true I would consider it to be an underhanded strategy by any Party .

    All Parties stretch, change, imply, various more or less facts to suit their own narrative and we would be very naive if we did not admit that the party we support might take part in that kind of dubious Campaign Strategy .

    I suppose it is then up to us as Voters just how much we can go along with, turn a blind eye too or forgive . Sometimes that can be very hard to accept but the choice then must be made, do I or don;t I .

    Some might say that PM Justin is a Pathological Liar, you might ask any Canadian including JWR and Philpott about that but it appears perhaps millions of Canadians will still vote for him, “Four Pinocchios” and all.

    It seems to me that you might vote for the Liberals so here is the same question “Right Back at You”, how could/can you considering the abundance of Hard Evidence against PM Justin ?

    How much are YOU willing to forgive and forget ?

    How about the rest of you Liberals here, care to comment ?

    Can anyone vote for a PM nicknamed “Edward Scissor Hands”an admitted Groper, accused of much worse, and all of his other admitted or proven discretions ?

    Keep in mind that there is a very good possibility other accusations proven or not may pop up in the next few days .

    I suppose we could then consider the attached, can Conservatives use Liberal Talking Points openly discussed by the Liberal Party and Candidates in Ads ?

    Can those discussion and Talking Points of Liberals be taken seriously ? Are the Liberals implying anything at all ?

    I suppose it is up to the ultimately Voters to decide .

    I am not up the standards of some Fact Checkers here but this is what a quick one minute search provided .

    https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/decriminalization-drugs-canada_ca_5d0f8751e4b0aa375f4e1b8c

    The Liberal Party also voted overwhelmingly to decriminalize all Drugs .
    Is there enough here for any other Party to use in an Ad ? Is it legitimate or is it unfair and dishonest ?

    Then there is this .

    Let me be first to point out that PM Justin has stated that this will not happen but will this vote be enough to suggest tha the Liberals might decriminalize Drugs ?

    https://www.straight.com/news/1062146/liberal-party-members-overwhelmingly-vote-decriminalizing-drugs-while-trudeau-repeats

    In closing i must state that you have never really let us down before so I will accept your judgement on this, if the Conservatives should take the Ads down so be it .

    If the Conservatives have intentionally attempted to fool any segment of the Voting Public they may suffer the consequences if any, I suppose it is then up all of us to compare that Conservative mistake to the record of PM Justin, Butts, and the Liberal Government .

    You have a choice to make, how do the two Major Parties compare ?

    And finally

    I do not think anyone believes chinese are very stupid, after all they are very quickly managing to buy up $ Billions of Dollars in Commercial/Industrial and Residential Real Estate with the Profits from Illicit Drug Profits which include Fentanyl and so much more including Intellectual Property Theft, Counterfeit Parts for Strategic and High Tech Equipment, while at the same time buying up the Largest Pork producers and so much more in North America as well as buying up Millions of Acres of Farm Land right across Canada and the United States .

    No Harvey, I do not think the Conservatives think the Chinese are Stupid, not even close .

    (Response: Well that campaign ad AND that robo-call on the same LIE … aimed just at Chinese voters sure looks like it! h.o)

  18. BMCQ says:

    Hawgwash – None of the Above

    I cannot help myself .

    I know it does not mean much coming from me and you also hate it when i compliment participants on the Blog for something they state but that was an excellent Post, one of the best I have since since my debut here in August 2014 .

    Very thoughtful .

    I especially like what you stated about the Mexican Temporary Workers, I hope Canadian Politicians of all Brands are paying attention .

    It is a shame that those same Temporary Workers were treated unfairly and taken advantage of at the Vancouver Race Track .

    Let’s also hope that Sabrina gains great inspiration from all of the people that voted for her, Iam sure she has a bright future whichever path she chooses, Canada needs people like her .

  19. BMCQ says:

    My apologies

    Transgressions

  20. nonconfidencevote says:

    While I agree with your assessment Harvey my riding is a bit of a “wild horse”

    Burnaby North-Seymour with the Conservative candidate booted at the last minute for her homophobic history.
    The 338 poll numbers 2 weeks ago?
    Libs 34%, Cons 30%, NDP and Greens in the basement with about 14% each.
    Now that Ms Leung is toast and there was no one to replace her?
    Libs 29.5%, NDP 29.8%, Greens 17%, Leung 13%.

    Apparently the pollsters think that the younger voters are heading to the NDP after Trudeau’s “brownface” debacle.
    And (If I was a diabolical cynic) I wonder if the Cons waited til the 11th hour to nuke their candidate( Leung’s bizarre theories were well known to most Burnaby municipal voters from her rants 2 years ago) in the hopes that the NDP under the well known war horse Svend “I must have that diamond” Robinson might take the Liberal “pipeline protest” seat.
    I’d like to vote conservative but as its now impossible……it looks like Svend may be my second choice
    It will be interesting next week to see who sits in power.
    A Trudeau minority wont last 2 years.

    (Response: Sure doesn’t look like any party will win a majority. As I wrote earlier in the campaign, this time BC really could decide the outcome. h.o)

  21. SG says:

    Last election a good number of traditional NDP, and perhaps some Greens, voted Liberal. They got suckered got into voting for the promise of electoral reform, and they got suckered into voting for “real change”. IMHO I can’t help but think that NDP and Green voters are so disappointed in Trudeau for not delivering on his promise of electoral reform, and for going ahead with the pipeline expansion which most if not all NDP and Green supporters oppose, there’s very little change that they’ll be voting for Trudeau ever again.

    (Response: I get it. BUT I think what the Liberals are hoping is … would they be happier with Scheer/Tories? And under the FPTP system, in ridings where the NDP/Greens are way behind … the Libs are clearly hoping, as I said earlier, people will “hold their nose” and opt for the Liberal candidate … to ensure it doesn’t go Tory.. I don’s know if that will work … but I hear that is the Lib hope. h.o.)

  22. D. M. Johnston says:

    Like Hawgwash

    NONE OF THE ABOVE …….. X

    I live in Delta South and my choice is

    1) The incumbent liberal who did a disappearing act for 4 years; did not stand up JWR; and basically was invisible. Does not acknowledge letters.

    2) The Conservative Candidate, which the previous MP under Harper, sent out flood of mail basically saying I am so and so and you are not. She let everyone know she was better than the rest of us. She in now running in south Surrey. Did not acknowledge letters.

    2 & 4) NDP & Greens just do not have a chance

    5 & 6) 2 independents, who also do not have a chance.

    No choice, with the top two contenders I just cannot vote for.

    Frustration and anger at this election.

  23. Gilbert says:

    The Conservative ads which implied that the Liberals would legalize all drugs were undoubtedly inaccurate, and they were an attempt to convince Chinese-Canadians not to vote for the Liberals. Have the Liberals ever done anything similar? Of course they have. Attempts to say that Conservatives cut all services such as in Ontario always fail to mention that the previous government of Kathleen Wynne left an enormous debt, and of course, we don’t want to mention that this federal government is also overspending.

    Let’s not forget as well that Liberals are implying that Andrew Scheer will change Canada’s abortion and marriage laws. Of course he won’t because he knows that such moves would be very unpopular. Let’s be honest. We say questionable tactics by all parties.

    (Response: That’s the problem: they’re ALL liars! And there’s no need for that: surely there are enough legitimate criticisms to level at opponents/policies/records etc. without having to invent lies. Or better yet, tell us the TRUTH about what they themselves will do if elected … oops, guess that wouldn’t work! h.o)

  24. Richard Skelly says:

    The big difference between this election and the 2015 contest is the lack of a publicized ABC (Anyone But Conservative) website. In 2015, voters in many so-called ‘swing’ ridings could visit the ABC site. Based on local polling and other metrics, site operators identified the candidate (usually Liberal) with the most momentum and chance to be elected.

    My hunch is there will be much more split votes on the centre left this time. Disillusionment with Trudeau, stronger-than-expected Singh campaign, less willingness by would-be Green voters to betray their conscience by voting Liberal and NDP.

    I also suspect lower turnout at the polls. Mainly because it’s been a relatively boring campaign. And because Andrew Scheer doesn’t trigger the same dread of Tory rule as did Stephen Harper.

    I won’t be surprised if the Conservatives win a majority. With many candidates scurrying up the gap caused by centre-left dogfights.

    (Response: Turnout could be affected by a lot of things, including the weather. Especially since there is no one who has really enthused many independent voters .. although Trudeau/Scheer do offer starkly different policies/approaches in several areas. But the good news …latest figures show the advance poll turnout in the first two days was UP 25% over the same period last election. h.o.)

  25. Gilbert says:

    The increase in turnout can be interpreted in different ways. It may be that those on the left are likelier to vote in advance polls, but I’m not so sure they’re highly motivated to do so. Marijuana has already been legalized and Stephen Harper is no longer in power. Many on the left are disillusioned with Justin Trudeau: he abandoned electoral reform, he bought a pipeline, he fired an indigenous Attorney-General and Justice Minister, he failed to improve water quality on the Grassy Narrows Reserve and he’s clearly an elitist who doesn’t seem to identify with the middle class.

    Conservatives are highly motivated to defeat Justin Trudeau. The Conservative Party is well-funded and has very hard-working and loyal volunteers. People want lower taxes and less government. We’ll soon find out what the significance is of the higher advance poll turnout.

  26. hawgwash says:

    SG, Gilbert and Richard Skelly comments are tied by a common thread; disillusionment.
    On the weekend I was in the company of a half a dozen mid 20s folks who were united in their feelings of betrayal by Trudeau.

    They all admitted to being somewhat novice voters in 2015 and getting caught up in Trudeau Mania II. The past 4 years has seen them grow politically and all are angry, that they were sucked in.

  27. Gene The Bean says:

    Gilbert, do you really believe that the Cons offer lower taxes and less government or are you just reading off the back of the Harper-O’s cereal box?

    If history is correct (duh) only taxes for the rich and corporations will be lowered and the only “lessening” in government are rules and regs that keep workers safe, keep our food uncontaminated and protect our streams and aquifers from billion dollar foreign owned firms from forever polluting them.

    It really isn’t that difficult children…. stop buying into the TV commercials and look at the facts.

  28. e.a.f. says:

    Agree with Richard Skelley, it has been a boring election. It got about as dramatic as it was going to be when Scheer, called Trudeau a bunch of names at the debate. Such bad manners. there were other ways to make the point, but he and his handlers failed to do so. It was boring. Telling some one what you think of them works so much better if you do it with some “dash and flash”. Scheer’s command of the English language isn’t much better than his French. As the old saying goes, “when you tell them to go to hell, make them anticipate the trip”. Scheer can’t.

    The ads are been lack lustre. Actually the NDP is running some decent ads on APTN. Singh is going after the Indigenous vote, after Trudeau failed to deliver all he promised. Good strategy. Conservatives and others seem to have forgotten the Indigenous vote.

    As to strategic voting, I’m for it. In this riding its between the NDP and Greens. the conservatives and liberals must have written the riding off because the local paper had very large ads from the NDP and Greens, not so much the Liberals and Conservatives.

    If I lived in Richmond, and some other ridings the contest, is between the Liberals and Conservatives and I’d vote federal Liberal in a heart beat, if it meant keeping the Conservatives out of office. Not only do I not believe the Conservatives, they aren’t presenting anything which will help me, mine, and others. Climate change, nada. Social programs, nada. The Conservative track record doesn’t speak well for them.

    Scheer is not so different from Harper, just not as smart as Harper. Then there is the no small matter of who makes up the A and B team within the party. Don’t think the Conservatives have enough depth to make a go of it and may not take advise from those who do. Ambrose is gone, as is Moore, Baird is gone. Raitt and Findlay remain. However, there is no evidence in place that Scheer would reply on them or that it would be a “boy’s club of lesser quality”.

    Trudeau is making a smart move by appealing to Greens and NDP voters, in specific ridings. He has nothing to loose by doing so. He also knows he may need either or both parties to govern.

    Who would the Conservatives rely on for a back up plan? Bernier? the Bloc may support the conservatives, if they got what they wanted, but would the rest of Canada like the deal? Would Scheer be smart enough to not take a “deal” from the Bloc if it alienated too many other parts of Canada?

    Recalling Scheer’s performance as Speaker, I just don’t think he has what it takes to be even a less than stellar P.M. In my opinion Baird, Ambrose, Findlay, Moore, and Raitt would all be better at the job than he. (you don’t always have to like a person’s politics to acknowledge they are “good/acceptable” at what they do.

  29. 13 says:

    (Edited ..off topic. Enough to talk about in this election without denigrating other commenters.)

    If people were faced with replacing a Prime Minister that had been a force on the world stage, that had put stellar performers in his cabinet, that had listened to his AG a First Nations woman of incredible strength and unwavering convictions , had kept his promise to balance the budget, had no history of assaulting women, nohistory of play acting like a spoiled child, did not pander to SNC Lavalin to excuse criminal behavior, had not paid a terrorist $10,000,000.00 , had not killed a worthwhile energy project only to spend $4,000,000 000.00 tax payer dollars on an up and running energy project. (edited ..off topic.)

  30. DBW says:

    Up the page, I said anything can happen in a week. Make that two days. At 338 they have added four recent polls to the mix and the probabilities now are Conservatives at 50% and the Liberals at 49%. Still a coin flip but the momentum has shifted.

    This is similar to 2015 when the Conservatives and the NDP both were predicted to win at some point early in the campaign and then the surge of Liberal support. If I recall, the best bet was a Liberal minority which became a Liberal majority on election day.

    The difference this time is the shift in momemtum is not Conservative driven. The popular vote % for Liberals and Conservatives has dropped to 32%+/- for both. Where the Liberals are losing ground is to the Bloc in Quebec and the NDP. Both those parties are now predicted to win around 30 seats each.

    Again, none of this is gospel. This is one site using an aggregate of all polls and some mathematical formula to place probabilities on various outcomes. Some are more likely than others. That is all the site is saying.

    Anyway, with six days to go, almost every scenario is in play. Another majority with less than 40% of the vote is so wrong particularly this time when there is very little secondary support for either party. I still have my fingers crossed for a minority.

    And if this is any help Harvey, 338 has Jody Wilson Raybould with a tiny lead but it is still considered a toss up. I am just wondering about the Conservative voters who are angry about the Liberal strategic vote plea. Would any of them be willing to vote for JWR or for Svend Robinson in Burnaby to ensure that the Liberal candidate gets defeated.

    (Response: Of course, under the FPTP system, it’s often not percentages that determine the final outcome, but seats. And according to the latest CBC poll tracker, the Liberals would capture 135 seats; the Tories 132; the NDP 34; the Bloc 33 (scary!); and the Greens 4. Now everyone can see why I love politics/elections … almost as exciting as Big Brother! And wouldn’t be interesting if NDP and Green voters in ridings where they are running far behind, stayed loyal to their brand, and helped the Tories capture a few more … enough to form government. 🙂 h.o)

  31. hawgwash says:

    I hope this is one of those “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take this anymore” moments.
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/advance-poll-turnout-surges-1.5321915

    “An estimated 4.7 million electors voted in the advance polls held across the country over the last four days, Elections Canada said Tuesday.

    That figure is significantly higher than the number of votes cast in the advance polls in 2015. The total of votes cast during this advance poll period was 29 per cent higher than in the last federal election,”

  32. hawgwash says:

    Harvey, which network do you watch as the results roll in?
    Why?

    (Response: I tend to flip from one network to another … looking for results… and clear, easy to understand graphics. I don’t care too much for the pundits droning on, especially for the first two hours as they are just killing time. Federally, I found last time CBC seemed best overall. Provincially, I found last two elections, CTV had both the fastest results and best graphics. h.o)

  33. G. Barry Stewart says:

    Liberal supporters were out in front of the Save-on Foods in north Chilliwack this evening, handing out leaflets for their candidate.

    Having been a door-knocker in the past, I commended them for this (new-to-me) approach. Apartment dwellers can hide behind their locked doors and gated community folks have that gate to keep the unwanted out. And who answers their phone these days?

    Catching people on the street is a tactic that Jehovah’s Witness stalwarts have used for decades. I’m wondering if stores have the right to deny political parties from their entrances/exits? I believe apartment managers are ‘supposed’ to let door-knockers in… though it rarely goes well.

  34. BMCQ says:

    Contrary to the hopeful opinions of so called Progressive Voters on this Blog Global this evening showed that in the last election the Conservatives secured more Votes in the Advance Poll than the other individual Parties .

    No way to “Spin” facts I am afraid .

    I will now patiently listen to Progressives attempt to say it is different this time .

    Yes momentum has changed as I pointed out several weeks ago, I did not need to consult 338, it is more than obvious that PM Justin is very concerned and in fact his Liberal Party, Butts, and the rest of his Brain Trust are in a Panic .

    No one that sees themself as Progressive on this Blog will admit thst they see the signs of a strong Conservative results either but the evidence is there, when Liberal Supporters state “I am hoping for a Minority Government, or lash out at those that support a Conservative Government demanding “it is not that difficult children, do not listen to TV ads” there is definitely desperation in the air .

    I do not know if 338 Polls “Considerably less educated, less intelligent, less life experienced, or less compassionate Rural Voters but today is the day 338 might want to take them into account when they formulate their Poll results .

    I find it very interesting we do not hear the Conservative Voters in this Blog name call anywhere near as much as the much more sophisticated Progressive Voters over all .

    Personally I believe the impassioned heart felt speech/response by Mr. Singh after the Clownish Black/Brown Face PM Justin incident along with the ridiculously devious and dishonest response by PM Justin regarding those actions elevated Mr. Singh in the eyes of many Progressives and I applaud him .

    Singh’s impassioned Response allowed many Liberal Supporters unhappy with PM Justin his outright LIES , SNC Lavalin, JWR, Migration and Border Lies, Khadr, inconsistencies on a Pipeline, Fiscal dishonesty, Foot in Mouth Mumbo Jumbo, Hypocrisy On so many Files, and many more to abandoned the FAKE PM Justin and vote NDP .

    I do not really see the increase in NDP votes translating into a huge number of Seats for the NDP but it will certainly split the Left Vote and the Conservatives will benefit and that will in fact translate into more Votes and Seats for the Conservatives .

    I can hardly wait to hear the discussions regarding Polling about a week from now .

    God I Love those Rural Voters

  35. Eliades Pastor says:

    Canadians are naturally liberal. We are egalitarians and cooperators and, as such, will give a person in need a hand. The exclusivity of the conservatives simply goes against the collective thought. The former conservative PM thought he knew what was right but was so off base he was ridden out of town on a donkey. His puppet kid is simply not ready for prime time. The stench of the Harper years still hangs over the party, give it another 4 years to waft away.

    (Response: I think it’s more what is happening NOW in Tory Ontario that could boost the Liberals’ campaign … not so much Harper or even Kenny/Alberta. As for Canadians being “egalitarians and cooperators” … sad to say not so much in rural Quebec … and that reality could play heavily in favour of the Bloc this time round … unless Trudeau’s big message lately … that’s there’s more power being in government than in Opposition … has an impact. h.o.)

  36. Gilbert says:

    I also love rural voters with the possible exception of Quebec, where too many will vote for the Bloc. I was surprised to see Justin Trudeau was recently in Iqualuit. It’s rare for leaders to campaign in the north so close to election day because there are so few seats there. Maybe he’s really worried about his seats there.

    Campaigning in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia didn’t really inspire, either. If the Liberals were doing great, the prime minister would be in places like Victoria, Edmonton, Thunder Bay and Quebec City. Is a blue wave coming?

  37. 13 says:

    Harvey, time is running out and I am waiting patiently for your announcement of your decision and why on the blog before election day.
    I suppose you might still not have made up your mind. This of course opens up a speculative option for the rest of us.
    6 choicesHMMM
    PPC Naomi an x staffer that worked for JWR not likely
    Liberal Taleeb,I cant imagine you voting Liberal based on their leader
    Green Louise a possible place to park a vote
    NDP Yvonne Not likely as she is very young and no track record another place to park a vote
    Now the contenders
    Conservative Zack If you vote for Zack you might help elect a new government.
    Ind, Jody I believe you voted for her in the last election, I wonder if she would get your vote again if she was still a Liberal. She will be a small force moving forward unless the results require one extra vote.
    I predict you will vote for Jody, although I wont be disappointed if you pick Zack

  38. DBW says:

    BMCQ, I hope you put your money on the Conservatives last week rather than waiting for this week. There are new odds out and Scheer is now even with Trudeau to be the next PM. If you had bet last week each dollar on Scheer would have netted you a $1.15. Today however your dollar will only net you 86 cents.

    And I know we are ahead of the game here, but this is an interesting article on what may result if we end up of with a minority, especially a minority with the victor only winning by a few seats. Which party is more likely to gain the support of the House of Commons?
    And it could get even trickier as both parties may need BLOC support.
    https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/an-expert-guide-to-minority-scenarios/

    And one last thing. Here’s the link to the Global story on advanced polls that BMCQ mentioned. It is an interesting read if you are interested in political strategy. On the first day of advance polling I was called by the party that knows I am likely to support them and was reminded to get out and vote. I was actually putting my jacket on to do so when I was called. I have nothing to base this on but I would guess that more seniors vote in advance polls than any other demographic. Our minds are generally made up.
    https://globalnews.ca/news/6030680/analysis-liberals-conservatives-advance-poll-battles/

  39. BMCQ says:

    DBW

    Thanks for the info .

    I think it would be most interesting if someone in Media did an expose on Polling after next Monday sometime .

    Polling is so inconsistent and it seems to be that way World Wide .

    “Brexit” was originally fairly close but if Polls are to be believed the “Brexit Yes” Vote would be much larger than the “Remain” side this time . That then makes me wonder why Leftist Labour, some Conservatives and others still want a “Brexit” Re-do .

    Do they not believe in Polls, are they stupid, do they not find the Polls credible, or are they Uneducated Rural Voters ?

    Again, I believe some people are influenced by Polling and I feel that is a threat to Democracy .

    As to any Party needing Bloc Support ?

    I find it most distressing that the Bloc would come into play anytime anywhere in 2019

    Here is something to consider and this is only an opinion off the top of my Head .

    Quebec separatism the Bloc was virtually “DEAD” and there was no interest in Quebec Independence going back for quite sometime, especially during the years of the Harper Conservatives, Quebecers cared not about Separation/Independence .

    What changed the past 4 years that caused the Bloc to become a legitimate Force in Quebec ? Why are the Bloc once again a factor, ask yourself ?

    I believe the reason for the resurgence of the Bloc and Quebec Independence talk can be attributed to one factor, the PM Justin Factor . There is no other explanation .

    Thanks for Posting the Global News Story, I was relying on information from a friend, I doubt if any on this Blog will dispute the facts now but they may still claim the untruth when in other company .

    Elidase

    Canadians are actually Small “C” Conservatives, Socially Responsible with Fiscal Management at the core of their principles .

    Without a Healthy Buoyant Economy providing good wages, fiscal management, control of government waste and bloat one has a country that cannot sustain an acceptable standard of living for it’s Citizens, that is just simple common sense .

    On a Scale of 1 – 10 10 being Hard Right most Canadians fall into the 4 – 6 range, in other words Middle of he Road .

    That is the Balance needed to be a successful Government and that is where the biggest gains can be realized by any Party, outside of that 4 – 6 there is not much success to be had, that is why Canada usually Elects a Liberal or Conservative Government .

    The NDP and now the Greens are simply Special Interest Parties which hold the feet of the Liberals or Conservatives Feet to the Fire much like Harry Rankin did back in the day in the City of Vancouver, Harry was Hard Left but he kept the NPA honest .

    Harvey

    To the contrary, I feel the Doug Ford Conservatives will help the Federal Conservatives
    and Ontario will see substantial gains for the Scheer Team .

    Hard Working tax Paying People of Ontario were sick and tired of Wynne and her predecessors and they wanted and deserved better .

    Ford is currently making tough decisions but those same Tax Payers see a “Light at the End of the Tunnel” unlike the “Pitch Darkness” of the Kathleen Wynne years .

    I strongly believe that the Ontario Conservative Voters will show strong support next Monday and those that forecast just the opposite here will be proven wrong .

    Yes, you may disagree so I suppose we will need to wait to see the answer to that question next Monday evening .

  40. 13 says:

    @BMCQ. “Yes you may disagree so I suppose we will need to see the answer to that question next Monday evening”.
    You would think that a win at the polls a win on election day,a concession speech (even a day or two late) an inauguration , a swearing in would seal the deal.
    I believe your right on both counts. A conservative win, clear and decisive.
    Just saw the two leaders on the noon news. Trudeau looking scared dazed confused. Scheer looked calm and confident

  41. Gilbert says:

    In a close election, Barack Obama endorses Justin Trudeau. It sounds like desperation to me. Can this be considered political interference? The left says no. We remember what happened when Barack Obama asked the British people to reject Brexit. What would be the reaction if a foreign leader endorsed Andrew Scheer?

  42. BMCQ says:

    Gilbert

    Great points .

    If anything the endorsement of Failed POTUS Obama might actually go against PM Justin and his Minions, that endorsement may motivate Conservatives to get out the vote .

    As I read this Election Campaign now I believe the biggest thing the Liberals have to fear other than PM Justin himself is the apathy of the Liberal Voters who may just choose to stay home rather than go out and support a “Spent Force” and Discredited Politician and his Party like PM Justin .

    No matter how the Media and Leftist Politicians of any Brand attempt to “Spin” Scheer and the Conservatives into the Devil and his Disciples the vast majority of Canadians see the Conservatives and Scheer as a responsible fiscal Conservative Party that wants to control spending, Control Gov Spending, Waste, and Bloat and they want to ensure the Tax Payer is not over Taxed .

    The attempt by Obama is just as pathetic as an already Failed and Unpopular Vancouver Mayor coming out against the Conservatives and attempting to brand them the Worst of the Worst, the Tax Payer pays no attention to Desperate actions and in fact that action once again may work against the Liberals .

    Over the next few days we will see a few more feeble attempts at “Hail Marys” to support the Liberals that will also fall well short of its target but I am expecting more of a “Bombshell” that may be more problematic for Justin than what we have already seen .

    The look of Desperation and Total Fear On PM Justin’s Face tells me he is frantic, paranoid, and running scared .

  43. G. Barry Stewart says:

    There is a big difference between private U.S. citizen, Barack Obama and president Donald Trump giving an endorsement during an election… though the former would be of far more value to the Liberal camp.

    Obama is universally respected in the Canadian Liberal camp and I don’t know of any living foreign right-winger who would have nearly as much cachet in the Canadian Conservative camp and its fringes. (Why is that, would be a question for another time…)

  44. BMCQ says:

    BARRY

    You say, “Why is that” ?

    That might be an interesting question but let’s be honest, there may be a huge percentage of Canadians that Voted Liberal last time that wonder why, question their own judgement, and would never vote for PM Justin and Butts again .

    Let’s be honest, Media of al types, the majority of educators K – University, Public Sector Workers, all SJW, Poverty Pimps, and so many other Special Interest Groups spend 24-7 ridiculing, criticizing, and lying about any individual or group that is Conservative those same Conservatives are forced to stay under the radar to avoid nasty attacks and labeling such as Knuckle Dragging, Uneducated, Morally Bankrupt, Rural Nincompoops .

    I am not telling you anything you do not know as you have seen exactly that in your Profession going back at least two decades but it has become much worse with the Election of the “Orange One” in the U.S., Brexit, the collapse of the EU, the push back against out of control Migration, Open Borders, and the rest .

    KATHLEEN Wynne Bankrupts Ontario but Doug Ford gets the blame when he and his Conservative Gov begin to fix the problem, why is that ?

    Keep It Real, there are a lot more Conservative Voters in Canada and thevU.S. Than you might think, Vote results prove that, the problem is Conservatives are Vilified everywhere they go so they “Lay Low” .

    What a shame they are required to do that perhaps we might discuss that one day .

    My Son and Daughter in Law both had to write Essays or anything else in California and UBC with a Liberal Slant so they did not get marked down .

    The shame of it all .

    It is rather unfortunate that not enough of us have the integrity and strength of character I hope JWR has .

    After the post from Richard I now must research that for confirming evidence .

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