Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a big mistake in not calling a snap Fall federal election.
His next opportunity … although the next scheduled federal vote isn’t until 2023 … will come in the Spring. He will have a much tougher time with voters then as compared to now.
Spring is a time of house-cleaning; Spring is a time to renovate; Spring is a time of new growth; and, politically, Spring will be a time when many voters will be ready, willing and even enthusiastic about putting every memory of 2020 behind.
And even express their dissatisfaction with the ongoing negative impacts (long-term by then) Covid-19 has had on their lives, their kids, their families, their jobs, their businesses, their recreational opportunities and their vacation travels.
While Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole will likely be much better known by Canadians; will no doubt have a lot more to criticize in the government’s handling of Covid; and, the NDP and the Greens will both have had a chance to renew and redevelop their own policies to appeal to Canadians.
Trudeau, like Horgan, as I wrote in June, was clearly maneuvering towards a possible Fall vote, as polls consistently showed he would likely win … despite the WE scandal.
Trudeau lost his nerve! And decided not to ask Canadians for a vote of confidence.
Bad mistake!
All three provincial premiers and governments that did call Fall elections, despite the pandemic … B.C., Saskatchewan and New Brunswick …we re-elected, handily.
Voters from coast to coast have clearly been satisfied with how provincial and federal officials have dealt with the pandemic and managed public business despite the challenges of 2020.
In fact, a new poll just out by Ipsos shows the federal Liberals at 38 per cent public support, UP 2 per cent from September and still leading the pack with voters: Conservatives at 32 per cent; NDP 17 per cent; Greens 7 per cent.
BUT Trudeau’s personal popularity is starting to slip:
” Six in ten (59%) approve (18% strongly/41% somewhat) of Justin Trudeau’s performance in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which is down 15 points when compared to April,” says the Ipsos poll, done for Global News.
You can read full details of the poll here: http://Six in ten (59%) approve (18% strongly/41% somewhat) of Justin Trudeau’s performance in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which is down 15 points when compared to April.
And how’s this: the Prime Minister’s personal rating was highest in BC:
” The Prime Minister’s performance rating on COVID-19 is highest in British Columbia (69%), Atlantic Canada (63%), Ontario (60%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (60%), Quebec (60%) and Alberta (44%). “
Time will tell … but I’ll be surprised if the federal Liberals and Trudeau are still so popular by Spring.
So Trudeau will regret NOT going to the people this Fall.
Harv Oberfeld
(Reminder: Follow @harveyoberfeld on Twitter for free First Alerts to all new postings on this BC-based blog.)