Trump/Republicans Better for Canada’s Economy than Biden/Democrats

If I were an American, I would NOT vote for Donald Trump.

I find him personally quite despicable … as not only the President of the United States … but also as a human being.

He’s a lying hypocrite who disgraces democracy, integrity, ethics and the dignity of his office … daily!

Trump has made the US a more dangerous, violent place to live and visit; he has aided and abetted the abuse of the US Constitution; he has helped pollute America’s waters, air and land; and, his delays/mishandling of the Covid pandemic contributed to the deaths of almost 200,000 Americans.

But I have to admit I do like his mid-East policies; I support his calling out of China on Covid-19 and unfair trade practices; and I am sympathetic to his calls for US allies to pay more of a fair share for their own defence.

Yet, I suspect most Canadians agree with my overall negative assessment … and hope to see Trump/Republicans lose the Presidency, the House and the Senate Nov. 3.

However, that might not be best for Canada!

WE are not Americans: WE are Canadians, and should care more … much more … about what happens in and to our country than the United States.

And when it comes to protecting, preserving and advancing Canada’s economy, the Republicans are easier and better for Canada to deal with …. even under Trump … than the Democrats would be under Joe Biden.

History has shown the Democrats have been much more protectionist than the Republicans.

NAFTA, which substantially increased Canadian export access to the US market, was initiated and substantially negotiated under Republican President George H.W. Bush, although officially signed by Democrat Bill Clinton.

Trump huffed and puffed ands hurled insults as NAFTA Two (the US/Mexico/Canada Agreement) was negotiated … but Canada still came out of it all fairly well.

The American CATO Institute, in evaluating the pact, noted: “The economic impact assessment released by Global Affairs Canada (GAC) estimates that implementing USMCA “would secure GDP gains of $6.8 billion (US$5.1 billion), or 0.249%” over a 5 year period. However, the report also notes that motor vehicle exports to the United States would decline by US$1.5 billion relative to the existing NAFTA.

” The U.S. International Trade Commission’s (USITC) report, which estimated gains for the U.S. economy at $68.2 billion, or a 0.35% increase in real GDP, over six years.” 

But look at the bottom line: 76.7% of our exports still flow south; while 18% of US exports come to Canada. Not too shabby … despite all Trump’s Big Mouth bluster, threats and antics.

TWICE since USMCA was signed, Trump has imposed arbitrary tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel and TWICE Trump has backed down … after Canada moved to impose dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs.

We beat him! (Talk about the little mouse tweaking the nose of the elephant!)

Trump talks the talk to satisfy his base … but notably has largely kept America’s doors wide open to Canadian goods, services and businesses …. including, by the way, the Keystone pipeline, hugely important to Alberta.

The stock markets … American and Canadian … did very, very well under Trump and his administration’s policies … pre-Covid. And are already coming back, despite rising Covid numbers.

And the polls show Americans still score the Republican President higher than Biden when it comes to running the economy. And quite often, in elections, it’s the ECONOMY that trumps other concerns when people vote.

The reality is Republicans are much more motivated by economic rather than social concerns/policies: increasing corporate profits, lowering taxes and boosting stock market performance while Democrats push policies of higher wages, higher taxes on the wealthy, improving the environment … and protectionism.

I suspect most Canadians would support the policies of the Democrats … if WE were voting in the US. … but we are not.

And Biden’s proposed economic priorities should raise concerns north of the border.

This is from, Joe Biden’s Website: https://joebiden.com/made-in-america/

BUY AMERICAN. Make “Buy American” Real and Make a $400 billion Procurement Investment that together with the Biden clean energy and infrastructure plan will power new demand for American products, materials, and services and ensure that they are shipped on U.S.-flagged cargo carriers.

MAKE IT IN AMERICA. Retool and Revitalize American Manufacturers, with a particular focus on smaller manufacturers and those owned by women and people of color, through specific incentives, additional resources, and new financing tools, and,

STAND UP FOR AMERICA. Pursue a Pro-American Worker Tax and Trade Strategy to fix the harmful policies of the Trump Administration and give our manufacturers and workers the fair shot they need to compete for jobs and market share.”

Last week, the New York Times also reported Biden promised to hit companies that “move jobs” to foreign countries and then sell products back into the US.:

“Mr. Biden, who has already proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28 percent from 21 percent, would create a tax penalty aimed at American companies that move jobs to other countries, known as offshoring. The penalty would apply to “profits of any production by a United States company overseas for sales back to the United States,” bumping up the tax rate to nearly 31 percent on those profits.

“That penalty would effectively serve as a new tax on American companies that make products abroad and sell them back to customers in the United States …”

Just think of the implications that could have for not just our US-owned suppliers and manufacturers but also Canada’s movie industry AND Canada’s high tech software/game developers … working directly for or employed by subsidiaries of American corporations that operate in Canada.

Canadians no doubt share many of the Democrats’ social values and environmental objectives … and, as I said earlier, I believe most would celebrate a Trump defeat.

But when it comes to the Canadian economy, jobs and exports … we should be careful what we wish for: because we just might get it!

Harv Oberfeld

(Reminder: Follow @harveyoberfeld on Twitter to get First Alerts of new postings on this Blog. No spam … just Alerts to new topics up for discussion.)

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10 Responses to Trump/Republicans Better for Canada’s Economy than Biden/Democrats

  1. DBW says:

    I am not going to argue with you on this (purposely provocative?) topic because I am no expert on economics but I did google “who would be better for Canada’s economy trump or biden”. While there will certainly be challenges with Biden, I couldn’t find an article that would definitively say that Trump would be better. Most seemed to favour Biden. Some said it was time for Canada to come up with its own economic plan rather than always reacting to the US.

    Whatever… Everybody has an opinion.

    Curious to know who the US is more afraid of either under Trump or Biden with his Made in America Plan (which sounds kind of Trumpish does it not?): China or Canada?

    From what I can tell (and everybody has an opinion) Trump has alienated his allies and therefore he is taken on China strictly from an American point of view. He seems unwilling or unable to bring traditional allies into his camp. Canada and Australia for example have had to go it alone. Ism’t Biden more capable of compromise with allies to ensure that the interests of the west (not just the US) are taken into account.

    But again… everybody has an opinion.

    (Response: I am amused by your observation that you Google checked and “couldn’t find an article that would definitively say that Trump would be better. Most seemed to favour Biden.” Wait for it! Remember, I was the first to say/write in APRIL the total closure of Stanley Park roads was an insult and hardship for handicapped and elderly … it took WEEKS till the “working” media/pundits caught on and it became quite a major story; I was the first to say/write June 1st(wow!) that Horgan and Trudeau were maneuvering towards early elections, was castigated for that, but weeks later the “working” media were finally all over it. Happy to be first again .. and will watch now for Canadian media to finally wake up and look into Biden’s “Buy American” program promises. 🙂 h.o)

  2. Horace B. says:

    It doesn’t matter if Trump has some good policies. I have never seen a man so deceitful in my life.

    (Response: As a student of history, I wouldn’t say he the worst I’ve seen in my life. But I just find it hard to imagine that he was the best a great country like the US could come up with to be their President. And the fact that he could actually win re-election makes it all even worse!! BUT from Canadas point of view, the trade/employment/public spending policies of the Democrats could be even worse. h.o)

  3. Harry Lawson says:

    Harvey,

    Where to start ? Lol

    I agree with you about Trump, however I believe he would be a better President than Binden.

    The Democratic party has been hijacked by the extreme left, one could also argue that the Republicans have been hijacked by the right.

    I ask where are the centralist? going to go?

    Is there still a libertarian party? The Democratic party in several states have or are going to court to de certify the green party presidential candidate.

    All sides have hired a litany you f lawyers . Going to be hard to find ambulance chaser for a while.

    America’s in a turmoil decades in the making.

    Several ideologies coliding .

    It will be interesting to watch.

    (Response: Yes, it certainly is interesting! But isn’t there a Chinese curse that says “May you live in interesting times”? 🙂 I really worry about things like climate change, environmental protection, honest government, social justice, ethics, integrity, truth and fairness in wages and hiring etc. …so on that basis, I could never vote for Trump. BUT as a Canadian, I do believe history has shown, the Republicans, even with Trump’s bluster, their rules/laws/policies … although falling short domestically on all those things I listed above … make it easier for our companies/corporations/investors to do business and make $$$ in the US. h.o)

  4. DBW says:

    I don’t really understand your response to me but seeing as you deflected from my China comment…

    I did a google search on “Harvey getting the story ahead of everybody else” and the first hit was NHL referees are biased toward American teams. No, just kidding. No google search.

    However, there is an election this fall and as much as I hate the political power play especially during an pandemic, even by a party I support, I have to pay my bet. Do you have a charity where you want me to send my $100.

    Back to Trump. I was listening to the Current on CBC the other day and there was an interview with Canadian economist Jeff Rubin. To be honest I knew nothing about him but I will be looking for his latest book called Expendables: How the Middle Class Got Screwed by Globalization. He believes Trump (and Bernie Sanders he added) have it right on trade deals, that good paying jobs were lost when much of American and Canadian manufacturing was outsourced to countries that paid workers 1/10 of what we would be paying here. He thinks Canada needs to rethink our trade policies, and what both countries need to do is work together with other allies to ensure that our workers are not left out.

    Again my opinion which means nothing is that Trump wants to do this completely on his own with no consideration of allies. Look at his tariff policies regarding Canada. Is Biden more willing to work with allies to ensure we all prosper.

    Erin O’Toole on the program a week or so ago said that Mulroney and I guess Reagan worked together on acid rain to ensure that neither side was taking too much of a hit on a common environmental problem. I got the impression that O’Toole wants to ensure that any carbon taxing does not put Canada at a disadvantage with the US. Who do you think is more likely to work with either Trudeau or O’Toole on environmental issues?

    I am not tossing out these questions because I am disagreeing with you about Trump. We both agree that Trump is a horrible human being. I am just curious why you think Canada’s economy would be that much better with Trump as president and even if it is, is it worth the lack of environmental regulation political turmoil etc.

    (Response: As far as h.o. getting things first/right …read Tuesday’s Special Blog! 🙂 As for your offered donation if, as I suggested, there was maneuvering for an early election, … no need to pay it: I value your contributions to this blog much greater than that ..even when you disagree with me and are thus clearly wrong. Meanwhile, re Rubin’s conclusion about jobs. I have always supported some transfer of jobs as a global way of getting the poorest, struggling nations out of deep poverty. Why not give them some of the manufacturing work, while richer nations advance our economies through development of more sophisticated, high tech industries/production/jobs? We can’t and shouldn’t have it all for ourselves, but there should be a limit too … and the dilemma/challenge is finding the right combination. As for why I think Canada would do better with Trump… it’s because the Republicans have traditionally been friendlier to open borders, competition, global corporate growth, while the Democrats tend more towards protectionism, which would hurt/exclude Canadian companies, especially those who produce/supply products/services for government run projects, infrastructure construction and services. h.o)

  5. nonconfidencevote says:

    Years ago in Ronald Regans first term I met some young tourists from California.
    Smart, articulate and they all voted for Regan…?
    When I asked, “How could liberal minded university students from CALIFORNIA vote for Regan?”

    One girl thought about it for a minute and said, ” I hate his foreign policies and the man is a dolt but…..he creates jobs…..”

    I find every utterance from Trump cringeworthy
    I just finished reading his niece Mary Trump’s book.
    Confirmed everything I thought about the man. A self absorbed despicable human being with zero empathy for anyone.
    I have just started John Boltons book The Room Where It Happened.
    A great line in the first few pages when he was about to meet Trump someone advised him ” Its like dealing with an 11 year old child……”
    After Bolton met with Trump he disagreed and said, ” The person missed Trump’s age by about a decade………….”

    (Response: People vote based on self interest. Although many talk the talk and may truly believe in social justice, the environment, crime or even foreign assistance etc. the reality is many will often hold their noses and vote for someone who will fulfill their own personal agenda … whether that’s the economy (VERY popular choice) or some deep religious or ethnic reasons or even the right to bear arms. And Trump has been very successful at pushing those special buttons. h.o)

  6. Gilbert says:

    If I were an American, I’d vote for Donald Trump. He’s far from perfect. We’re very familiar with his flaws. He often speaks without thinking carefully, he’s very sensitive to criticism, he’s very temperamental, he’s not very diplomatic, he’s proud and his use of nicknames like Sleepy Joe and Crooked Hillary is entertaining but can also be considered childish and unprofessional.

    One of the things that I like about him, though, is that he’s not a typical politician. He doesn’t lie and say he doesn’t watch debates, he addresses the dishonesty in the media and he connects with ordinary Americans in ways that Nancy Pelosi and Mike Bloomberg don’t.

    He’s not afraid to confront China and will not be bribed by the CCP. He took the USA out of the WHO, an organization run by a Chinese puppet, he is truly against illegal immigration, and he wants other NATO countries to pay their fair share. What other president has ever addressed those issues?

    He wasn’t the first president to say that he’d move the American embassy to Jerusalem, but the difference is that he actually did it. Though the left told us that this would create unbelievable chaos in the Middle East, that hasn’t been the case. If a Democrat had made the same progress in the Middle East, we’d hear far more about it.

    I also love that he isn’t starting wars like previous administrations. Wars in Syria, Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq are great for arms manufacturers, but they cost lives and money. This is not a president who will say that there is a red line and then fail to take action. Let’s not forget that Barack Obama told Syria that the use of chemical weapons was a red line, but he then took no action. This is probably what prompted Bashar al-Assad to call Barack Obama a weak leader. I don’t believe he has ever said that about Donald Trump.

    I love that he talks about the radical left. I have little doubt that he views Prime Minister Trudeau as a radical leftist who favours ideology over hard work and ingenuity, and who knows little about how to create economic growth.

    Many of the violent protesters who have taken down statues have also vandalized them with graffiti such as the communist hammer and sickle. Communists/radical leftists love to erase cultural history.

    Joe Biden has been a career politician for 47 years. What has he accomplished in those years? I know that he’s made himself wealthy, but was has he accomplished for the American people? I think the choice in November is clear.

    (Response: No doubt millions of Americans agree with you. Despite al his faults and missteps and the current state of the polls, I don’t think Biden is a shoe-in in any way. The situation there is VERY volatile: even the death of Supreme Court Ginsberg has provoked a major clash that could go either way in determining how people will vote. It’s fascinating …and a bit scary. From Canada’s point of view, especially in terms of jobs, trade issues, both Trump and Biden will pose problems … but my own read is that Trump/Republicans are now a known quantity, Biden/Democrats are an unknown, and his website and proposed policies could prove even more troublesome. h.o)

  7. nonconfidencevote says:

    @Gilbert
    ANYTHING Trump does is to help HIM “win”…. and only him…… everyone else be damned.
    If he loses by a large, irrefutable, majority of votes….
    Watch how nasty and vindictive he becomes.
    Trump is a boorish “winner”.
    I can only imagine the vitriol that will spew forth when he loses and still has the President’s office until Jan 2021……
    Cringe worthy.

  8. DBW says:

    Not going to argue you with you Harvey because I don’t have the expertise to make my point, but I did google “Do Canadians do better economically when a republican or democrat is president” and here are the first three hits. The first two are from 2012 but they do talk historically.

    1. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/democrat-or-republican-guess-which-us-party-is-better-for-canadas-economy/article4914637/

    Historically, Canada has done better with Democrats.

    2. https://www.opencanada.org/features/which-party-is-better-for-canada/

    Historically, Canada has done better with Democrats

    3. Ta Da Yes you were third on the google list.
    http://harveyoberfeld.ca/blog/trump-republicans-better-for-canadas-economy-than-biden-democrats/

    As I said Harvey, I am no expert. Trump may in fact be better for Canada. But history (at least as it applies to republicans) suggests otherwise.

    (Response: First, I noticed BOTH the Globe and Open Canada articles you cite were published in 2012:. That was when the Republican party still had basic principles beyond maximum corporate profit and before they began top view stock market gains as about the only thing that counts and even had some social and environmental conscience. It has been a VERY different party since 2012 … not just Trump, but before that with their Tea Party absolute corporate “freedom” mentality and the substantial financial inputs of the Koch brothers etc … who see the corporate bottom line (including lots of investments and subsidiaries operating in and shipping to/from Canada) as being of paramount importance. While the Democrats are quite clear: BUY AMERICAN is written all over their platform, policies, promises. h.o)

  9. e.a.f. says:

    Trump or Biden? Easy. I’d vote Biden if I were an American. Canada has survived all sorts of American Presidents and we will again. For me its just not about trade but what goes on in the U.S.A. Its a failing nation. If it gets worse and it well could with Trump and a Republican House and Supreme Court, how will the people in that country fare? We know in the majority of states women no longer have a choice about control over their own bodies. We know how Trump feels about the people who gave their lives for their country and people of colour, Mexicans, Muslims, etc. We know what game rules Republicans have tried to ram through regarding LBGTQ kids and adults. Then there is the no small matter of the new item today where Trump was at a rally “celebrating” attacks on journalists. His good pal Barr wanted to charge the Mayor of Seattle with Sedition. They want to arrest protestors for sedition. If the U.S.A. becomes a non democratic country, and its well on its way, how will that impact Canada? A civil war is not off the table in the U.S.A. How would that impact Canada?

    Selling the Kurds out, not a good thing. Not many internationally trust trump anymore. Having the ambassador to G.B. try to tell a British Cabinet minister they had to move a golf tournament to a trump property? ya not so much. Trump is a thug, in my opinion and if he got a really, really good case of COVID I would not be unhappy. They already have 200K dead due to COVID in the U.S.A. and that is enough to dump the bastard. I’m not that interested in the economics of things, I’m more interested in democracy and kids staying alive.
    I read a blog, Empty Wheel. Its very scary what is going on in the U.S.A.

    (Response: As I wrote, if I was an American, I would not vote for Trump. Even though my retirement account generally did very well under his administration (the latter part of Obama’s too); I like his mid-east policies, not just supporting Israel, but also having the guts to cut off the US $750 million a year funding to the Palestinians, who said thank you by repeatingly burning Americana flags and Trump in effigy. Yes, I’d vote Biden/Democrats for many of the reasons you point out. And even as a Canadian, for those same reasons, I would like to see Trump and the unprincipled Republicans tossed … BUT I want people to know Canada’s economy could have it worse under the Democrats than the Republicans. h.o)

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