Watch for Trudeau and Horgan to Call EARLY Elections

The giveaways have added up: BILLIONS of dollars of taxpayers’ money and future commitments handed out to millions during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Judging by the polls, British Columbians and other Canadians think it is money well spent.

According to the latest polling conducted May 23-25 by Research Co, headed by veteran pollster Mario Canseco, Premier John Horgan has a huge approval rating, 73%; well ahead of Green Party Leader Adam Olsen, who 49% of BC voters think is doing a good job; and Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson, who has a 48% approval rating among voters.

When it came to party preferences, if an election were held soon, the survey found the NDP would capture 41% of the vote, followed by the Liberals at 38% and the Greens at 16%.

You can read the full results here: https://researchco.ca/polls/ .

And the popularity has been generated by two things: a belief the government(s) have managed the health crisis well; and the financial assistance announced has been widespread and meaningful.

Human Resources lawyers MathewsDinsdale have just published a list of various federal/provincial programs/deferrals/assistance related to Covd-19 across the country.

In BC, the list includes: the Emergency Benefit Program of $1,000 per affected worker; topping up the BC Climate Action Tax Credit; Student Loan relief, Tax relief/deferrals for PST, municipal and regional taxes, carbon taxes, motor fuel taxes, tobacco taxes and employer health taxes; BC Hydro and ICBC deferral payments, and financial support for those in the Tourism, Arts and Cultural communities.

Of course, once all the bills come in, and the BC government will have to find ways of paying off all its promises/spending/deferrals.

Oops! That’s where YOU and I will come in.

Better to hold an election BEFORE we get our total bill … or at least start paying it ALL back!

And remember, Horgan would no doubt LOVE to lead a majority government, without having to cater to or answer to the Greens and their new leader, so why wait?

The next provincial election is scheduled for Saturday Oct. 16, 2021 … but watch for Horgan to find or create a situation to send BC voters to the polls in May.

And it could be crowded there. LOL!

Prime Minister Trudeau will also be facing … or at least Canadian taxpayers will be … a HUGE invoice for all the federal Covid-19 relief programs announced so far … and probably even more pandemic spending yet to come.

I don’t have the space here to list all those with bucks attached, promised, guaranteed etc. but suffice it to say, they will cost us … and even future generations .. BILLIONS!

You can read the full list of Trudeau’s announcements and the provinces’ handouts in the full MathewsDinsdale Report here: https://mathewsdinsdale.com/overview-of-various-government-programs-being-launched-to-mitigate-the-economic-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/

According to news reports, the federal deficit … $14 Billion in the 2018-19 fiscal year … was projected to hit $27 Billion for 2019-20.

And this year of Covid, 2020-2021, almost $260 Billion!

The next federal election is not due until Monday, Oct. 16, 2023. But would Trudeau really want to try to hang on in a minority government situation until then? Absolutely NOT!

By that time two other things will also have happened: the true cost of all Trudeau’s announcements and handouts will have been added up … and payback time will be upon us; and both the Conservatives and the NDP will have new leaders, not only in place, but getting better known and perhaps even impressing the voters.

Recent polls have shown Trudeau with an approval rating of between 70% and 77% across Canada … with as high as an 81% approval rating in Ontario.

And a Leger poll gives the Liberals 40.3% support; with the Conservatives at 28.8%; NDP at 15%; and, the Greens at 6.8%.

So I don’t believe Trudeau will wait: watch for him to come to us for another term … also next Spring, maybe even in late May or early June.

The only thing that could force a total re-calculation, I believe, would be a recurrence of the Covid-19 pandemic next Spring.

But it’s much more likely that will happen, if at all, in the Fall.

And by April/May 2021 Canada will literally be well on the mend; Canadians will be feeling relieved; and maybe even appreciative …

A GREAT time to vote in BC … and right across the country!

Harv Oberfeld

(Reminder: Get First Alerts to all new postings on this BC-based Blog by following @harveyoberfeld.ca on Twitter. No spam, just Frist Alerts to new Blog topics.)

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31 Responses to Watch for Trudeau and Horgan to Call EARLY Elections

  1. 13 says:

    Harvey I sadly and grudgingly agree with you. I have a bit ofhope that close polls in BC may keep Horgan in a minority or (crossed fingers) maybe even opposition.
    Our Prime (idiot) Minister on the other hand must be giddy (or his handlers have drawn him pictures) . For more than a month he has had the opportunity to stand infront of his home and deliver campaign dollars. Not even promises just cash. For everyone except seniors the Trudeau money truck rolls leisurely through ( mostly Eastern) neighborhoods. No debate in Parliament. No hard questions from his bought and paid for media. No conservative leader. He will get nothing West of Ontario but with the NDP out of the picture he will sweep the Eastern parts of Canada.

    (Response: I disagree with you: I think you’re dreaming if you think the Liberals “will get nothing West of Ontario”. NOTHING? In Vancouver? Nothing? Most Canadians right across the country believe Trudeau has done a good job with the pandemic and assisting several segments of society suffering through it. So I think he’ll do better … and if he and his strategists don’t think so too, they won’t go to the polls. h.o.)

  2. Marge says:

    And after winning the election by buying votes with our money, in the first budget, Trudeau will announce how much more our taxes will go up. Watch GST at 10%, income taxes hurling through the roof plus his all time favorite carbon tax placed on everything.

    People vote without thinking of the future consequences. It’s all about me, me, me. Grab grab. If he gives me money (even if it’s my own money) I won’t have to ever pay it back will I? Of course not.

    (Response: Buying votes with taxpayers’ money is nothing new: all parties do it when in power, knowing full well that, after the election, the taxpayers will have to pay back everything they’ve received … plus interest. So better to hold the election before the full cost gets tallied and passed on. h.o)

  3. nonconfidencevote says:

    I fully expect Trudeau to call a snap election this Fall before the 2nd wave of Covid 19 hits AND the true implication of his economic folly pans out.
    Canada will enter a brutal and long recession with zero money in the bank and a dreadful credit rating.
    The only plus side to Trudeau winning an election?
    He will be front and center for the blame when this hits the fan over the next 2-5 years.

    (Response: I thought about the Fall too … and that could happen IF the pandemic is under control. It would also cut short the time for the Conservatives’ and NDP’s new leaders to catch on. However, the social distancing requirements, fears etc could impact the number of volunteers, the ability to campaign and hold rallies and even the voter turnout. Since low voter turnout (of those who don’t like the government in power) could benefit the Opposition … I believe Trudeau will wait until Spring. Now Horgan … there’s more of chance, if the pandemic is under control, that he will go to the polls as early as Fall. h.o)

  4. HARRY LAWSON says:

    Harvey,

    i totally agree , if we have a pandemic free summer i expect elections to be called for mid September or October,
    The reality is the difference between the federal government and the BC goverment is like the tale of two cities
    As far as the federal election is concerned, Trudeau has been weeks behind the science, his own ministers i believe deliberately mislead the public about airport screening, i could go on and on. then he used the pandemic more as a election campaign ,his daily briefings a prime example. and of course politics 101 the conservative party is basically impediment right now . even with a new leader a snap election with a new leader who the public does not know vs Mr cash man .

    then there is BC Mr Horgan was wise and fortunate enough to have the right people in the right spots, his government has had few missteps, but thanks to Adrien Dix and Carol James two former NDP leaders will most likely ensure his reelection. they really have not given the BC liberals much to oppose

    The differences in leadership is between the feds and the BC government is like night and day.

    (Response: Horgan has a few advantages if he pulls the plug early: high approval rating with the voters; a weaker Greens presence/leadership; and, I just don’t sense Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson generating much excitement or support. So why wait …until all the bills come in?? h.o)

  5. Len says:

    I agree with your post Harvey.
    For the most part I think the money that was doled out was badly need. As for us
    having to pay for it, well of course we were going to be stuck for the tab, that’s how
    it works. A little off topic. “All of us who professionally use the mass media are the shapers of society. We can vulgarise that society. We can brutalise it. Or we can help lift it onto a higher level.” ~ William Bernbach. With your popular weekly column I believe you are responsible for keeping everyone honest and much respected from the left and the right. Thank you for what you do.

    (Response: Thank you! I enjoy raising issues, especially ones other media ignore or underplay, and ranting about them too; giving others a forum to discuss the topics raised;; and, hopefully all of us combined having at least some impact with those in charge, by exposing what they do and offering perspectives they had not thought of …or tried to overlook. h.o)

  6. DBW says:

    I thought the fixed elections act was meant to stop this kind of thing.

    When introducing the legislation, Harper stated that “fixed election dates prevent governments from calling snap elections for short-term political advantage. They level the playing field for all parties and the rules are clear for everybody.”

    Mind you that didn’t stop him from dissolving parliament in 2008 when the opposition was proposing a coalition and it doesn’t stop the power of the governor-general,so it will be interesting to see what Trudeau decides to do.

    Personally, I think it would be wrong to call a snap election as it violates the intent behind the fixed elections legislation.

    And because both Trudeau and Horgan can defend the necessity of the extra expenses, I am going to go out on a limb and predict that neither will call a snap election although there is the possibility that either could lose a non confidence vote.

    (Response: Fixed election dates are the ideal … but when minority governments are involved, and looming massive debt, then political leaders and strategists can be forgiven for invoking “exceptional” circumstances. h.o)

  7. max avelli says:

    Dear Harvey,

    This will be far longer than my usual comments (maybe not quite BCMQ book length :-). There is so much to object to.

    You and your followers have all lost your mind(s). Your posts have gotten regressively nuttier over the past couple months.

    Point 1) Where do you get info. that the NDP is having a convention to replace Jagmeet Singh? News to me. If you have a source for that, Enquiring minds want to know.

    2) The Federal Liberals were elected on October 21, 2019, losing their majority. So they are going to announce an election within 1 year? And how does anyone campaign? You have truly lost your mind. The voters would be so pi**ed off as never seen before. I may be a Machiavellian, but you are just a cynic. Are the Liberals going to manufacture their own defeat in Parliament to trigger an election? The election law calls for a vote every four years (unless triggered by a non-confidence vote. Maybe you missed that — although Harper threw his own legislation under the bus in 2008, and fooled around again in 2015). Which of the other parties are going to pull that trigger to bring down the government when they are in chaos? Real politics trumps cynicism. There is no way on earth Trudeau is going to try to pull the plug just one or two years into his mandate. That is another minority government. We know the deficit will be a disaster. Grown ups will handle it.

    3) The same goes for the BC NDP calling an election a year+ early. Horgan would completely destroy all of the goodwill he has built up over the past few months. This is not the time for cynical ploys. And if the polling you cite is anywhere in the ballpark, it would be a very dicey proposition if the NDP only has a 41-38 lead over the BC Liberals.
    , with the Greens at 16% (without any leader). That is another minority government. We know the deficit will be a disaster. Grown ups will handle it.

    (Response: You have your views of what’s ahead … and I have mine. We’ll leave it to the readers … and history … to determine whose are nuttier! h.o)

  8. D. M. Johnston says:

    I agree, of course, especially for Trudeau.

    He has to call an election before the taxes are increased to pay for the Covid-19 debacle.

    I believe Trudeau will gain a majority as the NDP is toast, with an almost invisible leader and the conservatives are committing Hari-Kari, with their leadership convention.

    Memo to the Conservatives, dump your bloody American religious nutters advising the party and trend back to the Conservatives of old. With the upcoming fiasco down south, Conservatism will only be a party for the religious extremists and racists.

    Horgan has other problems but luckily for him, the Liberals have an exceedingly weak leader and no platform except to build a 10, no 20 lane bridge replacing the Massey Tunnel. The Casino/money laundering scandal will also fuel voter disgust with the Liberals.

    Eby’s seat is toast as the cumbersome and hugely expensive Broadway subway has become a contentious issue he won’t deal with. If any real media scrutiny is done on the pork barrel project it would easily show that there is nowhere near the ridership on Broadway to justify, what will become a $3 to $3.4 billion prestige project.

    Hint to Horgan: Rethink TransLink’s plans and spend the money where it is needed as I am sure Trudeau will OK it. Want to gain seats in metro Vancouver, dump the mayor’s council old boys/girls club and install an elected authority.

    Transit woes in Surrey including a bridge too small will also cost the NDP.

    Hint to Horgan: Start an investigation to the the flip flop from LRT to SkyTrain and the current mayor.

    By the way, $4.6 billion has been earmarked to build 12.8 km of SkyTrain. In the age of covid-19, that is a tad too much!

    The E&N may prove a spoiler for the NDP on the Island and I think the Education Minister’s lacklustre performance was shameful.

    I forgot Site-C which is becoming more and more of a white elephant, will leave Horgan fighting a cliff hanger election.

    I live in Delta south and I do think if a credible independent ran, he/she would get elected as both parties are held in high odor.

    For what its worth, Trudeau would win with a small majority and Horgan will get second prize.

    (Response: Although I call it an “early”, it’s still way to far away to predict which party will take which seats. But I do believe, barring any late-breaking scandals etc. and despite the fact there are things that concern/displease me, Trudeau and Horgan could both win majorities. In politics, like comedy, timing is everything! h.o)

  9. Richard Skelly says:

    Trudeau may zoom up even further in the polls. If the U.S. descends into de facto dictatorship with Trump using looopholes in the Insurrection and Posse Comitatus Acts to suspend the fall election and limit Congress to sitting only twice a year. In an ongoing State Of Energency. Scenarios outlined a year ago by security analyst Elizabeth Goitein in The Atlantic.

    Until tonight, I thought Ms. Goitein was painting far fetched scenarios. Though I did take seriously her observation that anything could occur provided a 5-4 conservative majority on the Supreme Court gave a thumbs up.

    No doubt the federal Conservative Party, still guided by former PM/Trump toady Stephen Harper would find a way to be perceived as supporting such a power grab south of the border.

    (Response: Actually, I was thinking about that last night: if the turmoil in the US continues ands the pandemic does NOT rebound in the Fall … Trudeau could seize the opportunity to go as early as September/October. But a lot depends on Covid … more than on Trump. h.o)

  10. Gilbert says:

    I wish Justin Trudeau would resign so that a more competent Liberal could take his place. I’m no fan of the Liberal Party, but I think there are many such as Marc Garneau and Chrystia Freeland who would make better prime ministers.

    No one has ever accused Justin Trudeau of being hard-working or intelligent. It would be nice to have a prime minister who was. The former Australian Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, has written a book that tells us what many world leaders think of Justin Trudeau. He’s truly an embarrassment on the world stage and unlike Jean Chretien and Paul Martin, has no control over the country’s finances.

    I hope the Conservatives choose Erin O’Toole to be their leader. He’ll support the military, develop good relations with world leaders and help western Canada.

    It’s sad that many Canadians think Justin Trudeau has done a good job with the coronavirus. To a large extent, that must be because the Canadian media is mostly very supportive of the prime minister.

    Countries like Slovakia, Croatia, Vietnam and Taiwan have done extremely well with the coronavirus. They were suspicious of the information given to us by China and their leaders have never stated that they are admirers of the Chinese regime. It’s clear to me that the Canadian PM is very weak and not at all qualified to deal with China.

    His response to the coronavirus hasn’t impressed me. He gave masks to China and then we had shortages. The joke was that China sold them back to us. The sad part is that I’m not sure that’s a joke. Dr. Tam is on the WHO and will never criticize China. At first she was against closing borders and said it wasn’t necessary to wear masks. She had time for an interview with Rosemary Barton on CBC, but not for testifying before a parliamentary committee.

    Justin Trudeau was slow to implement screening at our airports and slow to close our borders. He and Jagmeet Singh have agreed to postpone parliament until September 21. I understand that Justin Trudeau doesn’t like question period, but if he had more respect for Canadians, he’d do the job he was elected to do. Let’s hope that Canadians will have to wisdom to vote him out in the next election.

    (Response: The polls show as high as 70% and more Canadians do not share your perspective on Trudeau. And looking at the rest of the world … especially the US and the UK … I suspect it seems to most of them that Canada has done fairly well overall in comparison. h.o.)

  11. 13 says:

    Harvey response to 13. “your dreaming”. Yes Harvey I admit that I was so upset thinking about 4 more years of Trudeau that I commented from my heart and not my head. Of course he will do okay in Vancouver. For reasons beyond comprehension Vancouver seems to like left wing nut jobs. The people of Vancouver must be very well heeled because they already are taxed up the whazoo and its about to get much worse.
    The thought of sunny ways makes me ill.

    (Response: I understand. But of course, that’s why I call this blog Keep it Real ..not As You Would Like It! 🙂 h.o)

  12. BMCQ says:

    I am in almost total agreement with you Harvey, the only thing open to debate are the actual election dates, when will they pull the trigger ?

    the B.C. Liberal Gov set election dates but they should have set Election Dates about six months after the Provincial Financial Statements were complete at the end of March, the first Tuesday of October each and every year would have worked .

    Same goes for the so-called Federal Fixed Election Dates, six months after the Federal Financial picture has been made public so the “Great Unwashed” can make an informed choice . The previous posters that pointed that out were correct, sitting Governments should have absolutely “NO” Right to manipulate Election Dates . That needs to change and should be an Election Issue Federally and Provincially .

    Systems like ours were originally meant to be independent of manipulation and we are seeing that independence with checks and balances being taken away by the Federal Canadian Government and more than likely very soon the B.C. NDP Government .

    I believe that the Federal NDP and Green Parties are basically “Spent Forces” with no chance in the next election . I strongly believe that May has exposed herself for what she really is, a person who is and has been nothing but an opportunist . My neighbours Dog would have an easier time getting elected than the Greens . PM Justin has “Out Greened” the greens and they are done, put a fork in them .

    PM Justin to his credit has also “Out NDPed” the NDP, Singh is basically in the “Witness Protection Program and he has just recently “Sold his Soul” to the Devil, PM Justin .

    https://nationalpost.com/opinion/kathryn-marshall-trudeau-cancelled-scrutiny-of-his-government-and-singh-was-happy-to-help?video_autoplay=true

    I am not sure when PM Justin will call the election but I am very suspicious that Singh knows and understands that the NDP are thanks to him basically little more than a “Rump” Party .

    I am highly suspicious that PM Justin has promised Singh a “Special” Cabinet position in the next Parliament .

    If the Election is not called for say another year or so I feel strongly that before then the NDP will pull out the White Flag and they will join with the Liberals for form the Federal “Liberal Democratic Party of Canada” and Singh and a few more former NDP Members will run under that Banner .

    As to Horgan ? Horgan has managed to do quite well with the Surplus left by the Moronic, Egotistical, and in fact Arrogant Christy Clark and her Government . Clark and her Cabinet managed to somehow “Grasp Defeat from the Jaws of Victory” and she got what she deserved, unfortunately the good people of B.C. did not .

    Imagine that if the B.C. Liberals were re elected the TEN lane Massey Bridge would have been set for completion only 3 months or so from now .

    Horgan other than the cash grabs and increases in fees and services has done a credible job . Adrian Dix who may have been the worst Leader ever has managed to look like a very good manager while handling the Covid 19 crisis along with Dr. Bonnie, Cis and Bonny have managed to re elect the NDP all by themselves . Poor Wilkinson “Really Is” the right People Kind for the job but he is cursed with the worst thing one can be cursed with in todays politics, he is Horror of Horrors White, he is highly intelligent, he is old, and he always looks like the guy standing with his wife holding a Pitch Fork, angry .

    I agree the Greens in B.C. are toast, they are fools, and Horgan will more than likely seek re-election in April . He will also win quite easily .

    Richard

    For anyone to suggest that the U.S. will “Descends into a de facto Dictatorship” is moronic at best and even more than likely must show symptoms of a severe case of “TDS” .

    Harper a “Trump Toady” ? In all seriousness, are you not aware at least a little bit that the time of the Harper Conservative Gov was slightly different than Donald Trump ?

    I am very much puzzled, was the Harper Government not in power from about 2006 until 2015 and then DJT was elected Nov 2016 and actually took the Oval Office in January 2017?

    Could Harper have been Canadian PM as Trump except in a sort of “Parallel Universe” with the Trump Administration ? Please clarify .

    (Response: I cannot see the NDP formally uniting with the Liberals, but if they stick with Singh, that’s a signal they are conceding the party believes it has NO chance of forming even Official Opposition, beating out the two major parties, let alone form government. Remember, in the last election, Singh led the NDP to a DROP of 15 seats … dragging the NDP down to FOURTH place in party status in the Commons. h.o)

  13. hawgwash says:

    Finally a topic “I” (bold and underlined) can enjoy; thank you. I was starting to worry about you. Lol.

    Federal:
    I don’t know if Trudeau can be comfortable with the idea or pull it off before fall 2021. I think he is still in a tenuous, vulnerable position and could easily be seen as cynical.

    Even with a gutted NDP and a leaderless CPC, the Liberals could easily gain nothing at all. He needs to heed Elmer Fudd and be vewy, vewy careful and Quebec is a crazy, unpredictable, wild card.

    BC:
    Horgan is definitely on a roll and has had plenty of help, getting there.

    He has a very good TV presence, which counts for a lot. He rarely goes off notes, is firm and can laugh at himself. There is no Christy “look at me, look at me” persona. Image.

    Adrian Dix has acquitted himself nicely and though it means nothing to most BCers, he has a great command of French; almost better than his English. Gravitas.

    And what better ambassadors, than Dr. Henry and Nigel Howard, down there in the corner?

    The Liberals are leaderless and washed up. Any attempt to bring up decades old “fast ferries” will be met with the current reminder of who caused the taxpayer funded money laundering enquiry.

    The Greens will be irrelevant and you may see Sonia Furstenau leave them. Adam Olsen is a nice guy, but is not known beyond the Saanich Peninsula. Andrew Weaver was no help, taking pot shots at the other two on his “retirement.”

    Trudeau shouldn’t pull the plug; Horgan should.

    (Response: It won’t be ALL clear sailing for Horgan/NDP: expect the Libs to add up how much has been wasted, yes wasted, on useless and failed fights against Kinder Morgan and pandering to activists and First Nations agitators who are against anything and everything that involves resource development. But barring any unforeseen revelations or scandals, I believe Horgan/NDP would win. h.o)

  14. DBW says:

    Just so BMCQ can rest easy.

    Section 23 of British Columbia’s Constitution Act provides that general elections occur on the third Saturday in October of the fourth calendar year after the last election. The fixed election date was previously set for the second Tuesday in May, but the BC NDP passed legislation amending the section of the constitution pertaining to the set election day.

    The NDP moved the election from May to October for the very reason he cited – transparency of the financial statements. That is why I don’t think the NDP will call a snap election. One, we are only 16 months away from the set date and two, they would be going against their own policy change.

    As for the NDP, and their likely demise because Singh led them to a fourth place finish. In 1988, the last time there were only three main parties, the NDP got 20% of the vote. In 1993, 1997, 2000, 2004, and 2008, the NDP came in FOURTH every SINGLE time with a popular vote between 7% and 18%. For whatever reason, both the Liberals and the Bloc collapsed in 2011 and the NDP reaped the benefits with 30%. Under Mulcair they fell to 3rd with 20% in 2015 and because of the resurgence of the Bloc, the NDP was back in 4th with a traditional 16% in 2019. In a multi-party parliament with minority governments looking more and more likely, a fourth place finish is not a disaster if used properly.

    None of that matters though. It is just guesses.

    What bothers me about your post, Harvey, is my worry that despite the laying bare of the inequities within our society, political parties will just go on as normal, using whatever means at their disposal to work the system to win the next election and maintain or gain power.

    We now see the problem with senior care homes. We now see how precarious life is for small businesses and low income families. We are already talking about how we are going to pay for all the programs that kept those people afloat. Are we going to continue to find ways to support these people or are we just going to ignore those problems going forward.

    (Response: Fixed election dates are easy for any government to respect and happily follow … when they hold a majority. But in the case of minority governments, when power/governance can be snuffed out in an instant by opposition parties when they feel the moment is opportune, it’s hard to demand/expect the government not do the same. And the stakes are so high (power, control of billions of dollars, control of economic and social policies etc.) I believe any minority government leader would likely seize the opportunity when the timing seems best, rather than wait to the appointed date or worse, wait just to be defeated . h.o)

  15. max avelli says:

    Dear Harvey,

    With respect to your non-responsive reply to one of my longer posts in here (nothing to compare to the endless blathering of BCMQ and others), where do you get info. that the NDP is throwing Jagmeet Singh under the bus any time soon. That is just irresponsible

    (Edited…off topic)

    Otherwise, the notion of Trudeau calling an election within a year of the previous election, seems to be limited to the RW mouth breathers at the National Post

    https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-why-the-idea-of-trudeau-calling-a-snap-election-is-not-so-far-fetched

    (Edited… off topic)

  16. Gilbert says:

    Jagmeet Singh is an absolutely hopeless leader, the worst the NDP has ever had. It’s clear that he didn’t believe the SNC-Lavalin fiasco was anything serious. He has made a deal with the prime minister because he’s putting his own interests ahead of those of the country.

    His disastrous performance in the last election helped the Liberals. There’s no doubt about that. A stronger NDP would have helped to split the vote on the left.

    I don’t see how Jagmeet Singh can improve the NDP’s fortunes. He’s in no rush to have another election because he’s out of money and ideas, so he’s happy to suspend parliament and go into hiding.

    (Response: I thought his worst moments … when it came to speaking out loudly/proudly for NDP values and principles … were his timid, disappointing, weak response to Quebec’s racist laws against turbans/Muslim face-coverings etc. Watch the polls over the Summer and early Fall. If there’s no movement upward for the NDP, Singh will stay on as an MP but be gone as leader by Christmas … so Nathan Cullen (or someone else) can lead the party into a Spring election. h.o)

  17. HARRY LAWSON says:

    Harvey,

    many posters mention Mr Singh and his many shortcomings however we need to look at the history of the NDP ,the waffle movement split the party in the late 60s and early 70s, from Lewis to Layton . Jack Layton took the party to official opposition . the closest the NDP has come to the promise land , the summit , then the slide down by Mulclair who claims his ouster as leader was illegal now they have Singh , many do not like his style , policies or culture. .

    Harvey , i wrote this to point out since Tommy Douglas left as leader the NDP has been dying a slow death

    (Response: Happy to say I met Tommy Douglas during my years (1969-71) at The Saskatoon Star Phoenix and Reginal Leader Post. But I’m afraid when it comes to voting, almost no one looks back or even thinks about the party’s history: it’s, at best, “what are you going to do for the country?” and, more often, “what are you going to do for me?”. That’s why Trudeau and Horgan are sharing out BILLIONS. And it says a lot that, while many get thousands of dollars and some big companies get millions, Trudeau has shafted most seniors, who have seen their savings shrink during the pandemic, with only $300; and Horgan has not helped out most financially impacted seniors at all. h.o)

  18. BMCQ says:

    DBW

    Thank you .

    As you say it is only a guess but now that you have confirmed the fixed election date and the Constitution Act I am somewhat in agreement that Horgan may not drop a writ earlier . The Greens are finished, Dix and Henry have performed fairly well, the Liberals are struggling to find an identity, the former Liberal Gov set the NDP up well, and the LNG is on its way to be in production .

    The only blemish on the Horgan is the unbelievable cost of extra taxes, fees, MSP dropped on business and the colossal waste of money fighting the pipeline but media and the public are not really paying attention .

    Several times in the past I have called for the banning of Foreign Investors and those that pretend to be local from investment it in Senior Care Homes and the chickens have come home to roost, especially in Ontario, Kathleen Wynne was asleep at the switch .

    We need to Police Senior Care Homes and how they care for our most vulnerable . We do so much more for the Drug Addled Repeat Prolific Offenders and it sickens me .

    Unfortunately all political parties are willing and able to stoop to any means to gain and hold power, that is why I always call for Term Limits at all three levels for elected politicians .

    I find it rather distressing that most Canadian Political Parties took advantage of the Federal Government Assist Program, should we be surprised ?

    I still strongly feel the Federal NDP and Greens have been out maneuvered by the Liberals and that may become part of the reason the PM Justin Liberals go to the Polls sometime in the uh fall of uh 2021 .

  19. Richard Skelly says:

    A suggestion for BMCQ and all of Harvey’s readers.

    It’s not Derangement Syndrome to worry that President Trump or a future demagogue-inclined Commander-In-Chief could use emergency powers for unthinkable ends. I can’t recommend enough the early 2019 Atlantic Magazine article by Elizabeth Goitein. It’s easily searchable online under the title: What Can A President Do In A State Of Emergency.

    Ms. Goitein tilts centre-left and names Trump in scenarios that could play out. But any conservative person reading need only imagine a populist Democratic President taking advantage of a hodge podge of vague terms in the Insurrection Act and Posse Comitatus Act. Plus a tendency of the Supreme Court to either bless emergency measures or punt by not hearing a challenge. Only a veto proof vote by 66 or more U.S. Senators can end an emergency measure. Good luck getting that kind of bipartisan agreement in these times.

    I was unable to Share the Goitein article on my own Facebook Page. But summarized it in a Post linked to her speaking about the need for Congress to pull back emergency-measure powers they’ve ceded to successive presidents over decades. And amend Acts and other statutes.

    I point out in my Post how Canadian Members Of Parliament have likewise, over time, allowed the Prime Minister’s Office and the Inner Cabinet to make them (ordinary MPs) even more “nobodies” than PM Pierre Elliott Trudeau ever envisioned when he glibly used that word to describe them.

  20. 13 says:

    @ BMCQ I have to wonder about term limits at all 3 levels of gov. I totally agree with the concept but I have one concern. Where will we find enough intelligent people to fill all of the spots. Capable honest politicians with integrity are few and far between. Just look across the country . For every good politician we have two or three Trudeau type. Looking at the size of government from the PM to the local school board where will they come from? We might end up using temporary foreign workers.

  21. BMCQ says:

    Goitein would be better off writing mystery novels .

    If Donald Trump was not POTUS Goitein would still be writing for the Kerrisdale Courier . Just think of how many PC, Leftist, Activist, Liberal Opinion Writers, and other Trump Hating Media types like Don Le Mon, Tapper, Rachel, and the rest are fully employed today thanks to the Election of The Donald, no wonder employment was at an all time high pre Covid 19 .

    What about the “Harper a Trump Toady” comment ?

  22. DBW says:

    In your response to me you said in part

    “in the case of minority governments, when power/governance can be snuffed out in an instant by opposition parties when they feel the moment is opportune, it’s hard to demand/expect the government not do the same.”

    I disagree. In the old days a majority government could call an election after three years if the timing was right or wait for five to cling to power (federal Conservatives 1993; BC NDP 2001).

    The governing party already has all the power. In a majority, the fixed election forces an election every four years taking away their power to pick the most opportune time. In a minority they may not have all the power, but the timing of an election should be in the hands of the elected assembly. If the opposition feels the government is doing an egregious job then pull the plug and call a vote of non-confidence. The same isn’t the case with the government if they are calling an election because they know the time is best now but may not be in few months or year. That’s just gaming the system.

    If a minority wants an early election then let them call a vote of non-confidence in themselves and vote in favour. See how the voting public would respond to that.

    Right now, I don’t have a lot of complaints about how the federal Liberals and the BC NDP have managed the pandemic, but if they were to call a snap election solely because they fear a reckoning is coming, that they don’t have a strong enough case to defend or lack ideas moving forward, then maybe they don’t deserve any chance at re-election, especially with a majority.

  23. OldIslander says:

    I would be surprised to see a Federal election called this year. After all, it has only been eight months since the last and the present minority government has worked quite effectively, during truly bizarre times. Canadians have noted this. There would be a powerful backlash to an unnecessary, opportunistic election – especially during a pandemic.

    Most Canadians care about ‘fair play’ – even in politics. The conservatives won’t choose a new leader until August; many would find it unsportsmanlike for Trudeau to call an election, before the new Conservative leader is installed and firing on all cylinders.

    A caveat here — if the new Conservative leader is not presently a sitting MP, Trudeau could use this as another excuse for an election.

    While I think Trudeau and done a surprising good job during the pandemic, my memory is long and I can’t imagine voting for him again — of course, depending on the new Conservative leadership and platform.

    I would not be surprised to see a Provincial election called in the next six to twelve months. It might be dangerous for the NDP or anyone else to underestimate Andrew Wilkinson. While he is abrasive and difficult to like as an individual, he was a Rhodes Scholar, has two degrees, and a wealth of provincial political experience under his belt. He has not had a real opportunity to present his case — we will find out all about him in the next contest.

    (Response: Michael Ignatieff had great credentials …and look what they got him. As I said in my piece, I expect Trudeau will wait until Spring or next Fall, but if something looks particularly good this Fall, or he has some backroom negative info that he knows will be out in the Winter, he could go this Fall. Certainly won’t wait …or last …till 2023. And Horgan will very likely go early, not because the Greens will pull the plug, but because he and/or party strategists think the time is right. h.o)

  24. BMCQ says:

    13

    Of course I have no way of absolutely proving that Term Limits would benefit us but I strongly believe that Canadians are intelligent, honest, and probably a very high percentage of them are capable of providing at least as good or better leadership than what we uh are no uh getting .

    I also strongly believe that people that have actually run a business and managed to pay rent/mortgage, meet payroll, pay all different taxes are better equipped to serve in government than many others as those mentioned have business experience and they understand the pitfalls of Government Waste, Bloat, Bureaucracy .

    I have a lot of respect for Canadians who are in the trenches and a very high percentage of them are capable of serving in government .

    We need fresh ideas, we argument, we need discussion, and we need debate in government just like on this Blog .

    Those that run and serve in government need to be creative, work hard, they need to be transparent, and they need to listen to the tax payer while at the same time they need to serve ALL Canadians, especially our most vulnerable, our seniors who built this great country .

    Canadians tax payers and residents do not need or deserve Life Long Politicians like Joe Clark, Jenny Kwan, PM Justin, and many more anyone on this Blog could name, we need fresh blood, fresh ideas, and we need fewer life long politicians and trust me there are plenty of more than capable good hard working intelligent Canadians out there that qualify for the two or three terms required of them .

    Remember, those two or three term politicians should receive one and a half times the salary that MP’s currently receive but they will receive NO Pensions, they will be forced to fund their own retirements out of the increased salaries so the tax payer will be rid of them once their two or three terms are expired .

    It is now more important than ever that we in Canada “Drain the swamp” of politicians like PM Justin and the rest that plan to remain in government until they are way past their Best Before Date, we need to “Flush” them before they get too comfortable with their Snout in the Public rough .

    We need fresh new leadership with courage enough to challenge china, restrict China and other off shore investors from coming into Canada with USD purchasing real estate, farms, business, and anything else they might find attract with the CAD currently at $ . 73 or possible as low as $ .62 . We cannot allow Off shore Investors or Governments to OWN Canada, we need to prohibit that from ever taking place . Canada is “On Sale” and we do not hear a word from anyone in Cabinet, the PM, or any Opposition member, or Media, why is this not being discussed ? WE need to demand that the government restrict Foreign Investment and we need to bring back the old PET Marc Lalonde FIRA, we should not wait another week .

    PM Justin has dithered placating Protester/Anarchists far too long, commodities are down and we cannot get oil or gas to world markets, where does he think funding for all of the social programs Canada holds so dear will come from ?

    We cannot rely on the same old “Do Nothing” professional politicians to stand up for Canada we need new blood and the best way to accomplish that is to restrict term limits .

    We can start by demanding that PM Justin stands by the legislated Fixed Election Date, we need to demand better from him and his minions, we cannot allow them to manipulate the system just so they can hang on to power and live a life of luxury while the rest of you are pulling the plough .

    Over to you Max, I am sure you can improve on this very easily .

  25. e.a.f. says:

    For those who think Singh is the worst NDP leader, go back and have a look at Audrey McLaughlin. we didn’t do so well with her either. The years with Jack Layton, were very good, but not the norm for the party. Singh will give it another election and then may move on or not. The NDP has never been a party of government and at a federal level I don’t see it happening in my life time, unless the federal Liberals and Conservatives make very grave errors. What the NDP has done is moved their agenda into the main stream and hence such things as CPP and a national medical plan. For a third or fourth ranked party I’d suggest that is excellent work.

    I don’t know when the feds will have another election nor the NDP. They may just go with the existing time limits. All Trudeau has to do to win is bring in a federal prescription plan. the NDP wants one, so do the Greens. I’m sure it would be a winner with the Bloc also.

    As to the Conservatives, they’re a spent force. If Mckay wins the leadership, they have a chance at re building. if not. they’ll become a fringe party, in my opinion. Now, it maybe if Ford of Ontario can keep going as he is now, he may be able to take over the Conservative Party, return it to a Progressive Conservative Party and we’re off to the races again. His handling of the pandemic has been very good and impressive. I’m almost starting to like him.

    As many here know I vote left, however, I am a firm believer in our democracy and that includes having a Progressive Conservative Party that is viable. Having them reduced to a fringe party will benefit no one. There needs to be strong opposition parties to keep the current parties in power in check. I’d like to see a Progressive Conservative Party which would benefit our country instead of a theologicially driven bunch of out of touch men who want too much to say about how a woman controls her health and body but that is a whole other topic.

    The election will happen when it happens until then, we can always set up a pool.

    (Response: My problem with the NDP is that I believe they have, over and over again, sold out the West and BC to try and gain seats in Quebec. Readers of this blog should recall a number of examples I’ve written about. No Quebec MPs…from any party … would stand up for the West/BC the way the NDP has stood up for Quebec’s having excessive powers and influence, even when they are wrong! h.o)

  26. BMCQ says:

    eaf

    Once again you are providing false information to the participants on this Blog .

    You said, “The conservatives are a spent force” .

    I am beginning to believe that you and the facts are totally unfamiliar to one another .

    Here is he actual truth about the results in the last Canadian Federal Election .

    Popular Vote

    Federal Conservatives 6,155,662 34.4 %

    Federal Liberals 5,915,950 33.1%

    The numbers clearly show that the NDP are at best a “Rump Party” .
    Stand by Mr. Singh if you wish but the numbers speak for themselves . he NDP put Singh in as NDP Party for silly juvenile liberal ideals and they literally shot them selves in the foot, Singh is NOT a ready for prime time player and if you cannot face the truth I cannot assist .

    Now I would simply ask you how would one square that Giant Circle ?

    Spent Force ? My ASS .

    I need to ask, do you subscribe to the following .

    “Please do not confuse me with the facts, I have already made up my mind” .

  27. BMCQ says:

    BTW

    We need to get commitments from both the Federal Liberal and Conservative Parties that “Fixed Election Dates” will be entrenched in the Constitution so federal, Provincial, and Municipal elections are all held at exactly the same dates right across Canada so NO Party can manipulate the system and in fact threaten Canadian democracy .

    Of course we can rely on Media for making this issue front and centre in any discussion regarding this subject and we can also depend on them to hold the feet of PM Justin and his Liberal Party to the fire on this .

    Fixed election Dates should be a Bipartisan issue and there should be unanimity from every single Canadian Political Party .

    (Response: Impossible! Do you really think Quebec, for example, would EVER tolerate a NATIONAL federal law …requiring approval of the other nine provinces … to determine when/how Quebec can hold/call its provincial elections???? Mais non, Monsieur! Jamais! h.o)

  28. BMCQ says:

    I realize Quebec has the PET Veto but just the same it should go to a vote and Wuebec can accept the dare if they have see fit . For the sake of simple democracy we must force the people of Wuebec to make the choice between Democracy and what could be dedrib4d as a Dictatorship given that by PET .

    I may be mistaken but the population of Quebec has been altered quite dramatically by the changes in immigration, as a Country we at least need to challenge Quebec, perhaps a large percentage of the population will speak up for Canada and Canadians . Many New Canadians that now reside in Quebec come from cointrirs where Democracy is absent and not even recognized, perhaps they might want a say on Fixed Election Dates as they for sure know and understand just how fragile and cherished Democracy really is .

    Full disclosure here, when I wrote my earlier post I had forgotten about the NWC .

    Hey, at least unlike others I am not afraid to admit a mistake .

  29. e.a.f. says:

    BMCQ, I was expressing an opinion, not a fact. You really are reaching. However, I’ll try to ensure I start all my comments with, In my opinion, and yes, in my opinion the Conservative Party is a spent force.

    You write, about figures regarding the last election. Fine, in my opinion that was yesterday and some of the reading I’ve done, leads me to conclude the Conservatives, in my opinion are a spent force. Where do I get those ideas, from former members of the Conservative party. they no longer see them as representative of what Canada is all about and one of the number one items is: the Conservative Party’s position or some of their members on the LBGTQ community. Now that so many people are out of the closet, people are finding their friends, relatives, who they care about, are not straight, they’re LBGTQ, etc.

    of course this is all my opinion, you of course have the exclusive on facts. Some may argue you are not basing your opinions on facts either, but rather on opinions you have formed based on information you have come into contact with. The thing about statistics and such, you can make they do anything you want. Much of what we base our opinions on are based on people we talk to, the areas we live in, the information we read, etc. of course that that is my opinion.

  30. BMCQ says:

    The figures in relation to the last Canadian Federal Election Results are from the uh Canadian Government Official Web Site, no matter how much one wishes the results to be different the facts cannot be argued, the Governments Official totals for each party are the results of record .

    There is no need for my opinion, facts are facts no matter how some here might want to
    spin it, it is simply basic math .

  31. Gilbert says:

    The Conservative Party is not a spent force. I can’t believe anyone agrees with that. In the last election, the Conservatives won the popular vote. They lost the election because a) the NDP performed poorly and didn’t take too many votes on the left; b) the media tried very hard to help the Liberals; c) many women, especially in Ontario and Quebec, were afraid that the Conservatives would legislate on social issues and didn’t vote Conservative: d) the Liberals did good research and discovered Andrew Scheer had American citizenship; e) the Conservatives lost momentum when voters learned that the Conservatives tried to discredit Maxime Bernier; f) Andrew Scheer’s decision to distance himself from Doug Ford due to the premier’s spending cuts was a mistake and undoubtedly cost him votes in suburban ridings of Ontario.

    In spite of all this, the Liberals lost support and could only win a minority government. With a new leader, the Conservatives will be in good shape. The arrogance of the Liberal government must not be underestimated.

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