At first, it sounded like a joke: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told reporters Wednesday he is “looking forward” to taking on any trade challenges Donald Trump lays down between Canada and the US.
“Looking forward”? (One pundit reacted: “Like ‘looking forward’ to a root canal!” 🙂 )
But maybe Trudeau is on to something.
An Angus Reid poll in September placed Trudeau’s Disapproval rating at 65% among Canadians, his Approval rating stood at only 30%; and, IPSOS placed the PM’s Disapproval rating even higher, 67%, with an Approval score of 33%.
Pierre Poilievre is probably already picking out new furniture and drape colours/pattern for the Prime Minister’s Office.
But not so fast.
What if Trump ignores the USMCA Free Trade Agreement (as he previously ignored NAFTA) and keeps his election promise to impose new and higher tariffs on “ALL GOODS” coming into the US from ANY country … including Canada?
What if Trump tries to tear up the existing Canada-US vehicle manufacturing agreements?
What if Trump puts a high tariff on Canadian pork and beef flowing south and demands Canada abandon its marketing board system and allow American eggs, chicken, milk and dairy products to flow north unhindered?
It would start a trade war with Canada. Our industries, jobs, workers would be under attack.
Trudeau would have no choice but to fight back!
Right?
And as Canadians, wouldn’t it be our national duty to support our country, our Prime Minister and our government in that battle?
“O Canada! We stand on guard for thee…” should mean more than just a song.
Right?
So, what if Trudeau, in the middle of an Canada’s escalating fight against Trump and American trade aggression, sought a public mandate of support for the government’s defence of our own interests?
What a great election issue! The True North’s David versus the Aggressive Americans’ Goliath!
Who would you support? Canada’s stance or the US? Trudeau or Trump?
In fact, Trump’s targeting of Canadian goods and services could be the PM’s “Hail Mary” opportunity to reverse his political fortunes …. just before the clock runs out.
And who would Poilievre support? Surely not Goliath???
Harv Oberfeld
(Lest we forget: this blog posting on Remembrance Day and all the Comments expressed are a testimony to the freedoms we enjoy, thanks to the sacrifices of so many from Canada and other democratic countries’ armed forces over the years, decades … and now too. Remember them … always.)
Last night on the National, their panel discussed tariffs. And this morning one of the top stories on the CBC website is “What If Trump is right about tariffs?
The starting point for the panel was Doug Ford’s suggestion that Canada and the US negotiate their own trade agreement and leave Mexico out of it. There may or may not be good reasons for this idea (I am far from an expert), but Ford looks like he is trying to get ahead of his own election next year and protecting Ontario jobs in the the auto industry. Canada has to be united (and Mexico can be an ally) so Ford’s public statements are not particularly helpful at this time according to the panelists.
But this led to the assertion by all the panel members that right now Canada is in a weakened state with our election supposedly a year away and a government that is surely going to lose badly. To strengthen Canada’s position an election should be called as soon as possible,so that the Canadian government has a mandate from the public to negotiate any trade treaties. And an election which asks which of the parties is best suited to lead these negotiations is definitely a campaign issue on top of all the other issues.
So your thesis here is certainly not far fetched.
The article this morning on whether Trump is correct was also interesting. Couple of points. It would appear that free trade (again I am no expert) can be beneficial overall but some areas suffer and that’s where politics comes in. Trump’s tariffs appeal to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin etc., the battleground states presidents need to win but they don’t apply to all. And second, the trade agreements between allies like Canada and the US are easier to work through than those with countries that are not so friendly like China who may not play by the rules. This would seem to suggest that Canada and the US and Mexico can work together to ensure a united front.
Anyway, not smart enough to come to my own conclusions, but thankful for the CBC to give me unbiased information to think about.
(Response: I believe if Trudeau went to the polls asking Canadians for a mandate to take a strong stand with the US … the Liberals would still lose big time. Trudeau is so unpopular, no one would believe him, sympathize with him and would likely feel they are being “played”. However, if the new USMCA negotiations have already started and are not going well, or the US has made substantial outrageous demands or Trump has personally blustered, issued threats, belittled Canada or actually imposed new tariffs on Canadian products …. then Trudeau would have a chance to whip up Canadian pride, take advantage of anti-Trump sentiments/anger … ask for that mandate and have his “Hail Mary” election issue. h.o)
Just a comment.
First I am no fan of Trudeau and the Liberals, but equally, i am no fan of either the Conservatives and the NDP.
On an American alternative media site, there was a discussion about what Trump wants in trade talks and that is to secure jobs in the USA. One of the big items is US Farmers and jamming the Canadian Market with American farm goods, such as cheese, milk, and alike products.
The Farm lobby is strong in Canada, especially in Ontario and Quebec and a misstep by Pollierve could be fatal. The UK is also under the same threat and the new PM is already trying to mend fences with the EU.
Canada has no real plan B and we could be isolated by the USA with even higher tariffs which will cause all sorts of economic havoc in our country. We have no EU to fall back on and to add more injury, Trump may compel Canada to increase its defense spending by buying more US product, which is why Musk is all over Trump mas Musk is heavily involved with the defense department.
My crystal ball grows dark but iy may boil down to this, would Canadians forgo the family trip to Disneyland or winters in Florida, New Mexico, and Hawaii to support Trumps attack on Canadian products and our democracy?
It could come down to this as trade retaliation increases between both countries. Trade wars are ugly and Canadians have grown lazy with our “easy life” of the past 30 years.
Something to think about because what was, is not necessarily “is” today, in this New World Order.
(Response: I already know Canadians who won’t take vacations in the US: border hassles; crime/shootings, safety concerns; hotels becoming quite expensive, and in US dollars; too many Americans angry, less friendly now … so they opt for Mexico, Costa Rica, even Spain, Portugal (especially some great package deals, in Canadian dollars). But with better shopping, selection, prices, great attractions, scenic beauty ..and warm, sunny weather, it would take a REAL trade/political war to make most others stop going south … although maybe for shorter trips or less often. h.o)
Your response to Steve M. Harvey describes the similar situation with covid:
(Response: Certainly, at this time, Trudeau has credibility and affinity problems with most Canadian voters. But give a politician a good emotional issue, especially one where a leader, after months of build-up, portrays himself as defending a nation that is under attack by a foreign bully, and the outcome could surprise you. Unless, of course, Trudeau finds another issue he thinks could save his political future. h.o)
Just before covid hit most Canadians were tiring of Trudeau, not to the degree his numbers now reflect but were getting there. Covid gave those numbers a pause with another lease on his political life for covid’s duration (and a bit beyond) whilst shovelling out gobs of money helping him.
With trump in office naming characters from the far side for critical positions, going with who you know being the best of poor our options would make sense Depending on what trump says and does, would we collectively want to take a chance on Polievre for the top job, with conservatives often taking the lowest common denominator?
(Response: Watching Trump’s recent nominations for his cabinet, I’m expecting the pundits to start questioning if he is truly insane …or at Russian agent, trying to destroy the US from the inside! It all seems so irrational, it does not bode well for how his attitudes towards imposing arbitrary tariffs or trade negotiations will unfold. For Canada, that would be terrible; but for Trudeau, searching for an election issue that would take attention away from Poilievre, it just could breathe new life into his image/chances! h.o)
Although before Trudeau was first elected, my memory has never been short at all to not remember his stating that he admired the basic dictatorship of China. For me that says it all about what he is about. He didn’t say that as a mistake or out of stupidity, or a gargantuan brain fart. He meant it. The man never really be be trusted. He sure knows how to put on a show for us and how he is so all Canadian maple syrup. He doesn’t fool me.
The Hail Mary strategy will only work if the public listens to Justin. I am not sure that most people are interested in listening to him anymore.
Also, there is a Conservative MP named Jamil Javini. He was the best man at J.D. Vance’s wedding. Apparently, they stay in touch. It would not surprise me if that relationship is used to prevent any trade war with Canada so that Justin cannot use the Hail Mary strategy.
(Response: Certainly, at this time, Trudeau has credibility and affinity problems with most Canadian voters. But give a politician a good emotional issue, especially one where a leader, after months of build-up, portrays himself as defending a nation that is under attack by a foreign bully, and the outcome could surprise you. Unless, of course, Trudeau finds another issue he thinks could save his political future. h.o)
If Canada’s supply management, a socialist system, is weakened, that will be very positive. If Canada’s dairy products are outstanding, there’s nothing to fear from a free market.
Donald Trump’s cabinet looks very impressive. It’s great to see the neoconservatives out of the picture. It’s time to stop the endless war and all the corruption that accompanies them.
I want the JFK files to be released and Jeffrey Epstein’s client list. I highly doubt he committed suicide.
It’s time to ensure all American states require voter ID. No immigrants should be allowed to vote. The Democrats want to give the illegal immigrants citizenship so they vote for them, but that’s completely unfair and a form of manipulation.
RFK Jr’s goal to make the USA healthy again is a noble one. The chronic disease epidemic is great for the pharmaceutical industry. Of course vaccine fanatics rarely find fault with the pharmaceutical industry because they seem to believe all the propaganda. Maybe one day they will wake up.
(Response: I’d love lower prices for eggs, milk, cheese, poultry etc! Getting rid of Canada’s marketing system (where small farmers etc are guaranteed quota sales) would bring lower prices … for a while. However, once all the smaller producers are pushed out of business by the big producers …from here and the US … because of the economies of scale, there’s no guarantee they wouldn’t then raise prices … charging more for products, some coming from much further away …ie less fresh. And I believe that’s something the US will push for. h.o)
There are 5 dairy farmers in my neighbourhood, all own varying amounts of dairy quota (40 milking head to 300), all of whom I converse with regularly. The thoughts of these farmers on supply management also vary but 4 would be glad to be rid of the current system provided they are made fiscally whole for the massive buy in amounts they have paid. 100 year old depression era concept which really stifles competition and results in processing monopolies like Saputo which has & is lobbying to protect their massive government monopoly. Would the Bloc have added supply management to their demands to prop up the Trudeau minority otherwise? Would the Trudeau govt. have taken such a hard stance on dairy during Nafta 2.0 negotiations otherwise? The same govt. that sacked 2 female cabinet ministers due to protecting SNC from legal penalties for bribery of Libyan folks? Would any other construction consortium from regions other than Quebec have obtained the same result? Never one mention of the Quebec govt. employees pension fund managers who funded most of SNC?
Ask any dairy farmer who has been in that business if they are better served by Saputo than the were by dairyland, 5-0 say things were much better before Saputo.
Just a few observations from farmers who differ from the media & political word salad mongers….
(Response: Believe me. I don’t like paying $5.50 for four litres of milk when I get a gallon in the US for $3.67 … but I do understand that if we open our border duty free to US milk, it would literally be poured in here by HUGE US dairy production corporations at low, low prices … until most of our dairy farmers go broke, have to pour unsold more expensively-produced milk down the drain, kill off their cows, sell off their land for condos/shopping centres/McDonalds and Tim Hortons. And then the American market controllers, with a monopoly at most large retail outlets, will then raise our prices, over and over… taking their profits back to the US. No thanks. I’d rather pay my $5.50 …and then grumble about it! 🙂 h.o)
Harvey you may be on to something here. PP is no Mulroney and I wasn’t keen on Mulroney but he did understand how to be a P.M. something PP hasn’t been able to manage. Trudeau and his Cabinet have already been down this road. I’m sure they can do it again and they have depth, not only in Parliament but former politicians.
If Alberta continues down its current road, it won’t reflect well on the federal Conservatives especially if they hire Harper for their new pension grift.
PP and the Conservatives are not going to look as good as they have. They may look a tad too much like Republicans. Some of those appointees, by Trump, are not bright, send Frieland in to negotiate and she along with Trudeau will at least keep things afloat. PP would simply hand the store over. He has never done that type of work Negotiating Free Trade agreements is not for novices.
I’m left of the federal Liberals. However, if Canada is going to be heading into difficult times with the Americans, I’d much prefer the Liberals with Trudeau governing Canada and negotiating.
While Canada was negotiating a free trade agreement with the E.U. there was one hold out. Eventually Ms. Freland simply told the E.U. negotiators if they could not move ahead then she was going home and headed to the airport, in a manner of speaking. The one hold out caved. No one expected her to say what she did and start her return. I recall a friend and I just cracking up about it. Our take on it was, there is a person who has had to deal with children and knows how to win.
P.P. is simply not up to dealing with Trump and his gang. There is also nothing about him which is charming either. Mulroney was very good at getting people and politicians in other countries to like him and trade on that. P.P. just isn’t in that class and neither was Harper.
So Harvey you may be onto something. People may not agree with you now, but when trump and his gang are in office and start their b.s. Canada will need some experience.
(Response: I haven’t seen any scientific poll that shows this, but among all those I talk to who dislike Trudeau and plan to vote for Poilievre, very few actually like/admire/trust PP. They just want to get rid of Trudeau AND the Liberals, but don’t want the NDP. So I know it may be a long shot, but again, if Trudeau is indeed going to fight the next election, he needs an emotional issue that will make Canadians “hold their noses” and give him one more term, as Canada’s ‘people” champion …and bully Trump, by backing Canada into a corner, could give it to him! h.o)
This is from Wednesday, Nov. 13. Trump uis filling his cabinet with rabid racists, liars, election deniers and worse. A commentator form FOX News is going to be Secretary of Defense and (edited.h.o.) Matt Gaetz is going to be Attorney General. Oh ya, the puppy killer gets a job too.
The ensuing chaos of a Trump administration and the potential for other bad things to happen, may prove more than problematic to the Pollierve Conservatives, including a close relationship with MAGA and insurrectionists.
Ugly shots of forced deportations and other third world antics, abandoning of Ukraine to the tender mercies of Putin and more, may just turn Canadian stomachs from the Conservatives.
If I believe what will happen does happen, Canada will fundamentally change, we will have too, a PM who we detest but has the experience being in power for several years to guide Canada through turbulent waters or a untried flag wrapper who has little experience internationally and has too many questionable connections to those down South.
A week is a long, long time in politics! With Trump, a week is almost eternity.
So to those who detest Trudeau, the next choice maybe Trudeau and Canada’s survival or an untried MP, who has no experience with stormy international waters.
Again, I would hold my nose and vote Trudeau.
(Response: I remember both the original NAFTA negotiations (under Mulroney) and the reworked USMCA deal (under Justin Trudeau): there were very tough talks, trade bickering and huge pressures from the US … but Canada held firm and, in both instances, emerged with a workable beneficial agreement. I have no idea how Poilievre and his team would do … but, at this point, I’m just suggesting a big fight with the US could allow Trudeau to sidestep Poilievre and pursue an election issue, other than his dismal record on so many other files. If it happens, remember you read it here first: if it doesn’t, don’t mention it! 🙂 h.o)
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I’m on the train of thought that Trudeau is beyond political redemption in the eyes of the public majority and will stay that way give or take a few points over until election. Personally I don’t think Polliviere is a slow thinker. He’ll,make moves where moves are necessary, and pre-empt and one up anything Trudeau does to look like some kind of a leader in the wake of anything troubling from the Trump Administration. I realize many voters have short memories of any malfeasance, incompetence and even betrayals from their leaders if their personal lives and live hoods are at stake, but I think Trudeau has given us a crystal clear glimpse of his messed up ideologies that run completely counter to Canadians interests. He and his higher echelon like Freeland for the biggest example has done so much damage that I think everything and anything they have messed up is irreversible. I dont think Trudeau and Freeland have any respect for us at all given the disgraceful high and mighty elitist holier than thou sounding attitude they constantly present us with. No I would think Canadians would know better to not be fooled and burned again and again just because he might try to act like a little temporary toughy to Trump. When any dust that may come, settles Trudeau would be right back at his old ways of deconstructing Canadian values and interests. Polliviere from what I see so far is witty and consistent and decisive and would carry that through in governance with strength and backbone for the interests of mutual nation relationship building and Canadians interests as best can be accomplished. Trudeau, no he’s shown his losers hand.
(Response: I doubt it would sway me, but I have no doubt Trudeau will be looking for a major issue to try to wrest votes away from Poilievre. A fight with Trump over Canadian jobs and values could be his choice. I’m not saying it will work …but that I believe he might try it …if nothing else better rears its head. h.o)
Hi Harvey, it might be theoretically possible for Trudeau to rise once again as the phoenix from the ashes, but what makes you think he won’t screw it up as he has with every other thing he has endeavoured to do. Other than funnelling money to all his Liberal cronies and friends and half a dozen or more dictators what has he accomplished. Unless his whole scheme of things, was to do as much damage to Canada as possible, just like his old man, I simply cannot see him being Canada’s saviour.
I think Trump hates him, if he even thinks about him, and he will be very hard to deal with. We will be lucky to, maintain the status quo!
(Response: Certainly, if track record is an indication of predictability, Trudeau could/would indeed, if given another chance, “screw it up”, as you put it. I’m only pointing out that, since Trudeau has decided (so far) to stay on and fight another election, he needs to find (even provoke?)an issue that would bring Canadians back to his side … and sideline just a one-on-one popularity contest with Poilievre. Trump may give that issue to him. h.o)
I asked my daughter a number of years ago, what is the one thing you will remember about me when I am gone? Her reply: Don’t vote Liberal.
I stand by that … no matter what!
(Response: “No matter what”? Hard for me to understand that: I believe voting should be based on policies, individuals and their records in office.. or to send a message to those in power. Over the years< I have voted Liberal, Conservative, NDP and even Green … but as their policies and actions have shifted, so has my vote. h.o)
I think outrageous Liberal deficit spending will affect us long after they are gone.
(Response: Politicians … federal and provincial …don’t seem to care much anymore about deficits and debt …and, apparently, nor do most Canadians. Pity the future generations who will have to pay for it all. h.o)
Justin Trudeau is finished. All Pierre Poilievre has to do is make it clear that he’ll cooperate with the American president far better than Justin Trudeau can. It’s obvious that Justin Trudeau is incompetent and has priorities that are far different from those of most Canadians. They seem to include free drugs for drug addicts, more taxes for the middle class, too many immigrants, policies that are soft on crime, mandates for experimental injections that haven’t been properly tested, very little for the military, support for Sikh separatists and those who don’t believe Israel should exist, and an attack on the natural resources of the country.
He’s a radical leftist and I doubt Donald Trump has too much time for him. Unfortunately, his ideology makes him blind to the need to be practical and govern in the interests of all Canadians. He may think Donald Trump will save him, but Canadians know he’s artificial and also the worst prime minister in Canadian history.
(Response: It will be interesting, if a trade dispute does arise, to see how Poilievre will react. No doubt Trudeau is unpopular, but sometimes voters rally behind leaders they don’t really like, if they feel their nation or policies or principles are under attack by a foreign government. h.o)
As a son of a veteran who volunteered to fight in the 39/45 war and spent the winter of 1944/45 patrolling the North Atlantic is what he called a tin can with sides as thin as toilet paper and rolled like it was going to capsize any minute.
Two take a-ways:
1) The idea of cruise ships never appealed to him.
2) He wasn’t a loser or a sucker, which Mr. Trump called veterans; he joined because he was morally obligated to do so as a few friends died in the war and staying at home was, in his mind, being a coward.
Ah, Mr. Trump, the populist president elect, representing the MAGA cult. Trump, a 34 count felon, rapist, liar and more, will tear up international agreements if they further his cause. He is amoral and probably suffering from dementia, so it is safe to say he is erratic at best and vengeance is on his mind.
So, if one Trudeau, went to the public in an election about sour trade deals with Trump’s USA, highlighting one Pierre Pollierve’s shady politcal connections down south, during the Truckers insurrection and even more shadier connections with the anti-science and anti-vaxer types, which are, again oozing Northward from down South, I would say a lot of Canadians would hold their nose and side with Trudeau’s Liberals.
I would!
Back to my late dad, he hated flag wrappers; you know the type, sings hosannas about Canada & patriotism, wrapping themselves in the Canadian Flag (as Pollierve is doing in his politcal ads), but in fact has done very little service to Canada (being in Politics is not and I repeat is not a service to Canada!) except take, take, take from the public purse.
My dad also hated the term “fighting for freedom”; he volunteered for the Navy because he was honour bound to do so. The “Freedom” moniker is from down south
. 1.1 million Canadians served in the armed forces in WW2 and in fact I would think the majority felt they were honour bound to fight.
If trade talks go sour and Trump imposes 20% tariffs on imports and bans Canadian companies from projects down south, I would think Trudeau will have an election issue that Poilievre’s Conservatives could not counter.
Could Trudeau even enter in negotiations with the EU?
(Response: A week ago I would have predicted, like almost everyone else, Trudeau had a ZERO chance of getting re-elected, despite his insistence on staying. But let a big issue/revelation/statement raise its head and many a politician, well behind in the polls, can suddenly gain a new lease on life. And protecting Canada’s jobs, industries, way of life and values under attack from the likes of Trump could give Trudeau that chance. As you wrote: ” I would say a lot of Canadians would hold their nose and side with Trudeau’s Liberals. I would!” Exactly! Ain’t politics fun!! 🙂 h.o)
If Trudeau’s hoping this saves his political fortunes, he should recall Nafta 2.0 and the Bloc should bear in mind that supply management on dairy products is not a wise hill to choose to die upon. The Quebecois dairy mafia (Saputo) has monopolized most of the dairy business nationwide, yes a government sponsored monopoly.
We export 1.2 billion in Pork to the US annually, we buy 952 million in pork from the US annually, so really a 1/4 billion difference.
The auto manufacturing businesses should be wary with Musk hanging about, maybe he’s lobbying for his Chinese factory to be tariff exempt?
Our forests are a mere shadow of their former log producing selves, between Eby & Biden that business is not much but standing firewood these days.
PP (bespectacled Mr.Bean) will benefit from Trudeau’s endless word salad targeting Trump, the messenger is on ignore, nationwide. No amount of wailing from Trudeau will get the sluggish economy moving, instill any investor confidence or engage any fresh investment. A decade is all the shelf life any Canadian leader can expect, ask Harper.
US Democrats (Biden, Pelosi et al) should own the mess they allowed to beat them, Harris #1 in the #2 business for 2 more months, then narcissistic nutjob 2.0 the assault on true democracy starts. Trudeau’s political self preservationist tact will return the same results witnessed in the US, nothing short of an amazing new leader with many fresh concepts can save the SS (sinking ship) LPC.
Utmost respect for all our service people, your service is massively appreciated. We remember the sacrifices made so we can sleep peacefully in our beds.
(Response: Remember, the federal election is not next week: it’s in October 2025 …unless Trudeau finds an issue that would block Poilievre out or into a corner. Interest rates are coming down; immigration and international students are being capped; housing construction is growing, rents are dropping … so give things another six to nine months and who knows how Canadians will be feeling. Especially if grocery prices abate and the carbon tax is cut/curbed. And then give Trudeau an issue … like Trump squeezing Canada’s industries, belittling Canada, putting tariffs on our goods, trying to bully us out of our current protections for dairy farmers, poultry producers etc. …and it could certainly improve his chances! h.o)
A nice tribute at the end there, Harvey, thank you.
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I’m not sure Trudeau has enough rubber left to bounce back on any issue. This might just be what his inhouse foes need to get him out in favour of someone with more strength and resilience.
(Response: I know it sounds almost impossible, but I’ve seen politicians pull miracles out of their pocket before. With Trump threatening Canada, and Trudeau and Freeland’s successful experience in dealing with him, I think it makes it even more unlikely the Liberals will push him out now. What Trudeau really has to do is find a “Hail Mary” issue that would handicap, even paralyse Poilievre … and defending Canada against Trump and US trade bullying/threats just could do it! h.o)
I don’t think Canadian voters will look to Trudeau and Freeland as our “saviours” against Trump trade tariffs.
I doubt this will be a rallying election cry since ALL foreign countries will be facing trade tariffs under a new Trump Presidency.
Trudeau blathering on in his boring, self righteous, bureaucratic word salad with slightly superior overtones.
Or Freeland explaining the simplest economic concepts in her head bobbing, arm waving, hand clenching, condescending, school marmish style.
When ever I see these two on tv….I change the channel.
They are like last weeks weather report……utterly irrelevant.
I will, however, enjoy the Trudeau Liberal minority govt twist in the political wind as the inevitable election draws near and his polling numbers continue to sit….in the basement.
The Liberals have earned everything that is coming.
(Response: You could be right: as the polls show, Trudeau is indeed in trouble. I’m just suggesting, if he plans to stay and run again, he will absolutely need a “Hail Mary” play to save him … and Trump’s targeting of Canada’s industries, jobs, trade just could hand it to him! h.o)