I told you so! Yes, let me gloat … and hopefully then educate both my readers and the “working” media and the “professional” pundits in the province.
It was way back June 1 that I blogged ” http://harveyoberfeld.ca/blog/watch-for-trudeau-and-horgan-to-call-early-elections/ “
The media and their professional analysts/pundits … many of whom read my Blog … ignored or pooh-poohed the idea.
After all, there is a pandemic in progress; the NDP has a signed working agreement with the Greens; there will likely be a second Covid wave in the Fall … making campaigning difficult; the NDP still have a comfortable year and half to go in their mandate; and, they had promised No Snap Election in their pact with the Greens … so Horgan would not risk it all now.
So the experts thought.
I reasoned differently: governments love to go to the polls after handing out billions of dollars in giveaways .. in the BC case to almost every group you could imagine (except seniors); Horgan and Trudeau knew full well it’s better to seek a vote BEFORE all the bills come in and the governments have to start raising taxes/fees etc to start paying down the debt; the polls were terrific … virtually unprecedented public approval for Horgan and BC NDP; and a good chance to get a MAJORITY, squeezing out dependence on the Greens. Not to mention how weak the Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson was coming across and how the Greens were in leadership disarray.
Didn’t anyone get suspicious with all the spending announcements, all the cheques being handed out, the increasing frequency of Premier and Ministerial press briefings, all their appearances on radio talk shows or even those self-congratulatory Reports to Constituents suddenly mailed out by NDP MLAs?????
The signs were all there … at least enough to raise/explore/report the possibilities … as I did. Yet, even after I posted my Blog piece, pointing to all the evidence, I saw no follow ups, no questions, no speculation about what was happening all around.
After all, what would a Blogger know? Especially a reporter who had retired more than a decade ago?
There were none so blind as those who would not see!
How did this happen? How did the BC media and their pundits and all their talk show hosts miss the obvious …. Horgan/NDP were maneuvering BIG TIME for several months towards an early election? Or worse, if they had noticed it, why did they stay silent and not report it?
Because too many of them are too close to those they cover: preferring to drink the Koolaid (announcements, press releases, press conferences) dished out to them by their “close contacts”, who weren’t ready yet to tip their hand.
And I believe many, who should know better, actually expected the NDP would keep their word in that written agreement with the Greens, to NOT call a snap election.
You’re dealing with POLITICIANS!!! How could ANY professional reporter or columnist or talk show host believe an agreement signed more than three years ago would still be honoured by any politician in 2020!
I was heartened, however, that most of my regular Blog readers understood and … although sometimes reluctantly or grudgingly … saw/agreed with my reasoning. Horgan ” was wise and fortunate enough to have the right people in the right spots,” one commenter observed; Horgan was “on a roll” another noted.
As for those who wrote in, predicting I simply got it wrong, or were more direct: “you and your followers have lost your mind” or “Your posts have gotten regressively nuttier” … please allow me to enjoy this moment.
There, that feels good!
Personally, I expect their gamble will pay off and the NDP will win the election … and even get their desired majority. I don’t think Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson (or most of his MLAs/candidates) are well enough known or trusted enough to form government.
But, still staying ahead of the pack, I revealed two weeks ago, how … despite the NDP’s terrific lead in the polls … there IS still a way the Liberals could defeat the governing party: http://harveyoberfeld.ca/blog/how-bc-liberals-could-still-defeat-the-ndp/ .
It would take some bold moves and controversial positions to tap the growing popular dissent, among those who actually vote, with all the giveaways/pandering the NDP have handed out to the “gimme, gimme, gimme” crowd of activists/anarchists over the past three years.
Remember, the outcome in the last election was very, very close …both in terms of seats and popular vote.
So don’t rule the Liberals out yet…. IF they learn how to exploit these NDP’s weaknesses.
Now, let’s see how long it takes the “working” media to recognize/explore that possibility!
(Reminder: You can get FREE First Alerts to all new postings on this BC-based Blog by following @harveyoberfeld.ca. No spam … just alerts to new topics up for discussion.)