The US has Canada over a barrel … literally.
BC’s refusal (so far) to lift its objections to oil tanker travel along our west coast, and Quebec’s refusal (so far) to allow oil/natural gas pipelines to the east coast are playing right into the US’s hands.
Canada will never be able to break free from American dominance and control of our oil (and mining) resources …which includes allowing the US to pay us 20% BELOW world market prices … unless BC and Quebec open up our access to alternative foreign … and friendlier … buyers.
If they don’t, all the talk about freeing us from US President Donald Trump’s domination, insults and humiliation, are futile.
In fact, although negotiations are still continuing, Canada is already hurting from the US trade attacks and interim tariffs.
Particularly hard hit are the steel, aluminum, automotive, furniture, clothing and forest industries … and, if the trade talks fail, those and all other cross-border trade are expected to suffer even more.
BC, already in a particularly difficult economic state, will be especially impacted … unless we open up our west coast ports to more potential customers in Asia, South America and other Pacific nations.
The Statistics Canada latest Jobs Figures for June tell the tale.
The good news was the country’s overall unemployment rate, despite layoffs in some sectors, was basically stable: 6.9%, with 83,000 new jobs added. Canadians are clearly stepping up … buying Canadian … trying to protect jobs.
But in BC, although the June unemployment rate dropped, unfortunately it was for the wrong reason:
“Although B.C.’s unemployment rate declined from 6.4 per cent to 5.6 per cent last month, making it the third-lowest in the country, that improvement mainly reflects the number of people leaving the workforce, as opposed to job creation,” the Vancouver Sun reported.
“B.C. gained 5,000 jobs in June. While the province recorded 8,000 new positions in accommodation and food services and 4,600 new jobs in public administration, it lost 4,800 jobs each in manufacturing, transportation and warehousing.
“There was also a decline in the number of jobs in critical fields such as health care and social assistance, which lost 2,100 jobs, and construction, which lost 2,500,” the statisticians found. (You can read the whole article here: https://vancouversun.com/business/bc-losing-workers-as-youth-cant-find-employment-due-to-lack-of-private-sector-jobs)
And there’s BC’s overall economic health …
“The B.C. government upped projected budget deficits throughout its three-year fiscal plan, including a record $10.9 billion shortfall in 2025-26,” RBC reported in March … and that, of course, was prior to the latest fiscal woes/threats besetting the province.
“Significant risks threaten revenue and expenditure projections—the plan doesn’t incorporate U.S. tariffs into economic assumptions.”
Ugh!
And our debt forecast looks even worse!
“B.C.’s debt is set to skyrocket with continued deficits and ambitious capital spending. The budget forecasts taxpayer-supported debt to jump from $97.7 billion in 2024-25 to $166.5 billion by 2027-28. This represents a nearly $69 billion (70%) increase in just three years.”
S & P’s last economic-lending review downgraded the province’s long-term credit rating to A+ from AA- .
And Moody’s dropped BC’s credit rating score as well:
“Moody’s said in a news release that its downgrade reflected a “structural deterioration in British Columbia’s credit profile” and it predicted this year’s deficit would soar to $14.3 billion,” according to The Sun.
“That’s more than 31 per cent higher than the forecast in Finance Minister Brenda Bailey’s budget last month. Moody’s said its credit outlook for B.C. remained negative with no “clear visibility” on how the province would balance its finances.”
And there’s a price to pay for that … literally:
A lower rating will cost BC millions more to finance its debt.
In Quebec, the impact of the tariff war will also have severe consequences:
““The core risk is really for manufacturing jobs. There is about 95,000 manufacturing jobs in Quebec in those sectors that are very dependent to US exports. So let’s think about aluminum, steel, aerospace. So 95,000 jobs that are in those very crucial sectors,” the Institut du Quebec warned.
“Quebec consumers will still feel the downsides of the tariff war through price increases on consumer goods such as appliances, furniture, clothing, and food products. The analysis indicates that unlike the industrial impacts, which could vary from one region to another, these increases will affect all of Quebec,” Montreal’s City News reported.
All of this, I’m sure, is not lost on our former American trading partners, now adversaries.
BC and Quebec must wake up a smell the coffee (now under a 50% Trump tariff threat)!
And let’s keep it real: even if a new trade agreement is reached soon, Trump is so unstable, it’s unlikely he won’t go off on another trade tantrum and attack (or two or three) before his term is up.
We MUST do everything we can NOW to expand access to world markets for our resources, our industries and our trade/co-operation relationships with friendly countries.
And a NECESSARY pre-requisite for that is the removal of self-imposed pipeline and port barriers preventing us from doing so!
Harv Oberfeld
(Follow @harveyoberfeld on “X” for FREE First Alerts to new postings on this blog.)
I am not going to argue one way or another. But I just listened to an interview with David Suzuki. And he sounded defeated. “In a finite world unlimited growth is unsustainable.” “The oceans are warming.” “We haven’t done enough since 1988 when the first warnings of climate change were heard.”
Sure our economy is threatened. We need to sell our resources. Harvey, every thing you say is true. .
But I have come to realize that nobody cares about climate. A carbon tax is too expensive. Pipelines are needed. Tanker bans are a nuisance.
In 2050, I will be 99, in other words dead. What will the world look like for my one year old granddaughter who will be starting her career and raising a family?
(Response: Resource development and movement need not be a case of “development OR the environment”. Extraction and export technologies are far superior to what they were just a decade ago and Canada is demonstrably quite capable of doing both. No one is advocating lowering our labour/environmental standards to that of China or Russia etc. … but we have to keep it real: the damage to Canada’s economy, which funds our way of life (jobs, health, education, public service levels) is already occurring and will get even worse under Trump’s aggressive anti-Canadian policies, even with a trade deal. We simply do not have the luxury of taking five to ten years to weigh, consult, negotiate and finance an environmentally Cadillac version of every major resource project that can help Canada weather the US attack and then, on top of it all, block our own exports from getting to other markets! Ho)
I am not arguing with you. Everything you say about the economy is true. We can build pipelines more safely. We can transport crude oil more safely. And this is not just a Canada thing. Most countries are trying, Canada especially, although failing to meet targets. And part of the problem is that the current economy trumps the future environment. Suzuki figures we are already past the tipping point and all we likely can do is react to climate change.
So that’s my question. What do we envision the future environment to look like, not for us who will be dead or drooling in our soup, but for our children and grandchildren. When I was born in 1951 my parents had just lived through 10 years of Depression and 6 years of war but I don’t think they ever thought the world they left us would be a mess. I wish I could think the same.
Any one want to give me some hope?
(Response: Too late. I’ve already drooled in my soup …but blamed it on the ship’s movement. As for our responsibilities to future generations, I do agree that should be a concern, but not as strongly as I previously felt. When China, Russia, the United States (and several other nations) … with their coal mines, dirty factories, river polluting lack of sewage treatment and huge populations etc … are probably producing much more pollution in a day than Canada does in a month, I think we are already doing more than our fair share to clean up the environment. Could we do more, just on principle? But asking Canadians to pay/sacrifice even more, when for many their very jobs, incomes and children’s current lifestyle is at risk is too much! Hopefully when things get better economically, we can worry about the grandkids and great grandkids. Ho)
If the federal government won’t lift the oil tanker ban on the west coast for environmental reasons, then they should put an immediate ban on the 4000 or so inbound oil tankers per year on the east coast for the same environmental reasons, this would essentially give eastern Canada no choice but to demand an oil pipeline from Alberta east… the Irving refinery which refines most of the oil required in eastern Canada is designed to refine heavy crude such as what Alberta produces, so the refinery capacity is already in place. The oil tanker ban on the east coast should take effect in four years or so, giving plenty of time to build the pipeline.
(Response: Canada’s economy is in for rough times for at least three more years … even with a new US trade agreement. Thousands of jobs are at stake … and so are our social/health services. Overseas markets can help soften the impact … and what the world wants is our resources. Pipelines and ships will deliver them, east and west, and no government or lobby group, foreign or domestic, should be allowed to block our access to those markets. Period! Ho)
Times are changing, however I saw much of this coming as our nation played petty politics to win votes & appease small factions of whiners. These political ploys here, opened many doors of opportunity for many foreign leaders of questionable motivation. The last decade in Canada has been a complete disaster as we’ve spouted off about support for the oppressed while opening economic opportunity for their oppressors. Then we shackle resource development for a few idealistic goals while others ramp up production to fund war on the very oppressed we claim to wish to help?
(Response: The squeaking wheel gets the grease! Governments at all levels cater far too much to loud, activist minorities while ignoring or exploiting the needs/struggles of the vast majority. Ask anyone paying federal and provincial income taxes … or property taxes (up,up,up) over the past 10 years (in Vancouver especially); more and more very expensive bike lane expansions, while vehicle restrictions, detours, closures multiply; developers can build almost anything they want anywhere, twisting/changing view cones, ignoring social planning implications, traffic/parking impacts … and governments at all levels talk, talk talk but do NOTHING to keep residents safe from violent repeat criminals, thieves, vandals, crazies and open drug-using miscreants! Ho)
more tankers on the west coast. NO its not worth it. One or two spills and poverty would be the least of our worries.
Yes, it could be done “safely and environmentally rsponsibly” but it won’t be. There is human error, maintenance not up to speed because corporations like to save money, an incompetent pilot or no pilot, bad weather, etc. These ships would all be foreign vessels so if there is a problem, they won’t care. Its not their water, its not their country, etc. the “oil” Canada exports is not first grade, it more like tar, which isn’t that great for our enviornment.
At the rate things are going in the U.S.A., they may be country which goes down the toilet, not Canada. At the rate Trump is deporting farm workers do expect the crops to rot in the fields just as they did in Alabama a number of years ago. The budget cuts are going to bring a lot of misery and social unrest. Trump can order all the military he wants into California and other states, but its not like the U.S.A. hasn’t had a a civil war. As some one wrote, this time both sides will have nuclear weapons for the civil war. Lets not forget there are more guns in the U.S.A. then people.
We also might want to wait until China has finished dealing with the U.S.A. Xi doesn’t have to make a deal with Trump. POV on PBS had a documentary on about China’s adventures in Ethopia. Over the past several years I;ve read about China’s push into Africa. This documentary showed how far that has gone in Ethopia. China is building factories and communities there. They purchased 72 sq. miles of land for the new city. I think they said the price was 5 million. The farmers who live there aren’t planning to leave their farms until their conditions have been met. As China colonizes other countries they won’t care about the U.S.A. The USA may not be able to continue as it is given the shift in who has all the wealth and will have even more shortly
Then there is the ghost of Epstein. Some MAGA are burning their red caps. It may cause some to leave his party and join the one Musk is creating.
(Response: Canada can’t wait. Thousands of Canadians are already seeing their jobs terminated or threatened. We are in an economic crisis …and we MUST move more of our products overseas, given the punishing actions of the US. And the reality is, the world NEEDS/WANTS our major resources … oil, natural gas. minerals … not hockey pucks and maple syrup, and the ONLY way to get that out is by ship. We must open up shipping ports/exports … and pipelines … on both the West and east coasts asap! Ho)
Welcome to “Can’t-u-duh”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-first-nations-queens-park-bill-five-challenge-1.7586175
(Response: People/groups have the right to challenge the laws. However, I am always suspicious whether they truly fear or object to the legislation ..or it’s just part of negotiations/shakedown. Ho)
I don’t think Bill C-5 was tabled to thwart Trump.
It was done to deal with the endless “negotiation” shakedown by “1st” Nations.
You can’t build ANYTHING in Canada now.
Not a road, a powerline, a dam or a pipeline without 1st Nations stopping development and wanting ….money.
I live next to the Trans Mountain pipeline terminus in Burnaby.
Remember how the private owner (gladly) walked away from that billion dollar boondoggle and sold it to a gullible Trudeau govt?
And the final toll was triple the cost?
I watched the protests and the “Guardians of the land” set up residence for months and years outside the tank farm gates. Dumping their garbage everywhere and creating havoc every time Global needed a 6pm story on a slow day.
The federal Liberals created this “appeasement” mess and now they have to deal with it.
How many “1st Nations” have filed a writ against Bill C-5 so far? 10? 20?
“Much wants more” seems to be the cash grab mantra these days.
No.
It isnt Trump thats the problem.
The problem is in our own backyard.
I will enjoy watching Carney tell everyone that the alternative to C-5 “getting stuff built” is recession, no money for anyone and a very very angry population which comprises of 95% non indigenous voters.
I tend to agree. I know of two people who: 1) Took early retirement and sold the family business 2) Sold their business, because of issues with First Nations.
Shakedown is too kind a word as the legal angst when dealing with first nations is all but unbelievable.
With Trump, tariffs, and a receding economy the financial gravy train is stopping, but greed continues.
This has nothing to do the the residential school outrages, which have never been dealt with properly by government, rather the day to day operations of First Nations and the current governments kow-towing to them at every turn.
There are many first nations peoples who understand this, but either have “moved on” or have been forced to stay quiet and let the current regimes continue. but that is another issue.
Trump’s tariff shakedown maybe just the impetus needed to stop the other ethnically inspired shakedowns taking place.
That damned Trudeau, thought the treasury was an open chequebook, well it ain’t no more as reality has hit Canada square in the face.
(Response: Stand by for my new blog, next Monday! 😉 Ho)
What a fantastic gift the Russians and China have in Trump, seeing they have a real live dummy that’s dividing not only our Canadian American alliance, but the western alliance in general pretty much all by himself and his few incompetent dimwitted around him. Trump, Vance and Hairbrain Hegseth. The Three Dummies. The isolation of America much of Trumps doing but now also with Russia and China for sure giving the idiot a helping hand. The Russians are definetly masters of the game, ButvChina also gleefully and skillfully playing with and toying with such a Loser Team Whitehouse. This is all part of dividing the Alliance now. A dream come true for the other side and they didn’t even have to hardly lift a finger, but now they are. Why wouldn’t they. Buckle up, we may be in for a rougher ride.
(Response: I was surprised to learn today that two-thirds of the steel used in Canada comes from outside Canada! And by far most of that comes from the US …not China. Carney has now announced new steel tariffs on some countries ..but so far NOT the US. Hopefully we will still get a negotiated deal with the Mad Hatter, but if we don’t … and our steel industry is severely impacted … Canada should shut the door on US steel, so Canadian projects us Canadian steel. Ho)
A lot of steel used in Canada is specialty steel, such as the steel used in SkyTrain’s guide-ways and tunnels and not produced in Canada. I was told this a while back by a transit consultant. Evidently there are various grades of steel and some is specially made by a few companies, who, thanks to “Free Trade” are located south of the border.
Makes me wonder about the steel used in those ferries Eby wants to build in China, but I digress.
Interesting that during the election you said that the Trump trade fiasco would be resolved in a few short months. Now you are saying he could carry on with this for years. That’s why Trump was rightly the number 1 issue for voters.
(Response: I still believe there will be a new trade agreement within that six-month period (by Fall). But that does not mean Trump will go silent or not come up with other outrages/challenges for Canada (defence, border, intl conflicts, etc.) over his remaining term: the Mad Hatter is indeed mad! Ho)
I think the “Epstien” fiasco has completely changed Trump’s tariff timetable. I don’t think Trump gives a damn, its a shakedown, pure and simple and is waiting for a payoff of some sort to pretend he is a victor.
The American economy is tanking by all accounts and as produce rots in fields because ICE is arresting those harvesting the crops, the real hit will come in the fall.
Also factor in Trump’s failing health and mental health, because he is living in an alternative universe, where the likes of Clinton, Obama, and Biden haunt him every day.
To movies to watch again: 7 Days in May and All the President’s Men.
(Response: Not sure what figures you have in mind when you write “The American economy is tanking”? US stock markets are at all time high; last month tariffs brought US $27 Billion …four times the amount in the same months last year; gasoline prices are way down; and inflation is up to 2.7% … showing Americans are spending more. True, US border communities are suffering … and there are other things I see going down, down, down in the US (like human rights, political integrity, trade relationships) …but the economy (so far) is not one of them. Ho)
I think the the American stock market is being manipulated, but the figures I see for tourism, manufacturing and agriculture are as the Americans put it, below water.
It will be late fall when the the impacts of Trumps economy hit the fan. The Christmas season will be the bellwether and that is now only 4 months away.
Right now, approximately 30% to 40% of Albertans are receptive towards separating from Canada. There are similar percentages in Saskatchewan. I agree with Jason Kenney’s analysis that much of that support is frustration and resentment with how the oil producing provinces are treated by other provinces. That includes opposition to any new pipelines, while at the same time demanding more money from equalization. I suspect that if one or more pipelines get approved, much of that separatist sentiment will vanish.
I also remember former BC Premier Dan Miller saying that BC opposing the Trans Mountain pipeline was a mistake because it would generate tax revenue for BC thru various taxes as well as creating good paying jobs. But he also said that Alberta has an ability to inflict greater harm on BC than the BC can on Alberta. A similar argument can be made if BC opposes any new pipelines. Alberta may decide to retaliate against BC.
Also, I like your blog, Harvey, even though we will rarely agree politically. I am at home with the UCP government.
(Response: One of my favorite parts of this blog is the discussions that take place of differing points of view. (Proves how old fashioned I am in this age of one-sided editorialized “news” reporting! 🙂 ) As for Alberta separation, it would not help resolve their alienation, because it’s a land-locked province … and a new pipeline west to the coast or east through Ontario or Quebec would be even harder to achieve. I believe … especially if negotiations with the US end badly … both BC and Quebec will agree to new pipelines and, yes, coastal tankers. Elbows up!! Ho)
Strangely enough, American Braken Oil is being shipped, by tanker overseas, via Westbridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, with the oil transported North by the Burlington Northern and Santa Fe Railway.
Yes we must really pull away from the toxic and unstable imbecile in diapers sooner than later. God he must have to have a changing often. Even Putin and his people no doubt, are having a grand laugh about there useful idiot in the Whitehouse. Its Party time in the Kremlin.
Hey, maybe we can have 50 days reprieve from tariffs, but that’s no use because he could change a few times before coffee break. Who.would have thought our friendship and alliance would go off the rails so bad. And all because of one nutbar. He doesn’t have a strategy or anything resembling one or even a smidgen of competence. It’s just chaos. A psycho only sees everyone else is a problem except himself., and.thinks his chaos is a plan. So for our sake let’s get away as much as possible from this insanity. Hopefully the American people will be able to take care of the monster they created. Was it a lab experiment gone wrong.
(Response: Trump cannot run for a third term as President (although some MAGA supporters believe because he took a break between terms, he could indeed seek another “second” term after the current one) , but I keep wondering something else I have not seen any expert pundits: could he do close to what Putin did … seek election to the post of vice-president, with Vance as President, but with Trump really pulling the strings behind the scene? Scary. You know, I still like the US and find most Americans quite warm, friendly towards Canada/Canadians …but it’s clear we MUST break away from reliance on the US markets for product sales …and purchases. Ho)
I agree about still liking the United States. It’s just the name of a country. It’s what’s in it now, that is mixed in with the mostly warm down to earth Americans. I would hope. It’s the poison that Trump and his thugs have poured into the society and its made its way into to many areas across the country, and because of that it’s made I think many Canadians wary and uneasy and even angry. Like why, why, why. It’s all so unessecary and divisive. Because a nutbar got in. Even let’s out the Jan 6 thugs to now be emboldened as a tyrants thugs at the ready. This is classic dictator stuff. Having suckholes in the military general staff replacing others. The FBI and Justice system being replaced by dim-witted incompetent but toxic and really nasty leadership and complete rear kissing types. But, overall the regular old America and its warm freindly Americans of just a short while ago to are I think still mostly intact. So sad though how it onlybtakes a few bad apples and dum ones to to get in power. That shouldn’t be. The good hopefully will wash out the bad. It’s a classic tale of good vs evil, vile and really sick.
First of all I do not want this country to be a star on anyones flag!
BC keeps spending and not much yelling from the opposition …
And the big FIFA show coming up and that will cost millions … taxpayers need the opportunity to have another election …
Your piece is right on … I don’t think the Premier can read … especially yours…
(Response: Oh, I know they read it! But they don’t like it … preferring instead the gentle, coddling questionning they get from much of the current media. I also suspect either the Premier reads it or hears about it, judging by the cold shoulder he gave me at a funeral we both attended a few months ago! 🙂 🙂 Ho)
This is an excellent piece, Harvey – I couldn’t agree more. Who would have imagined that the U.S. and Canada would become such disillusioned adversaries in just six months? Yet, here we are.
We can’t assume this new status quo will change much when Trump’s term ends. Even out of office, he will remain a background force—agitating his enormous base, which includes roughly a third of the American population who view him as some kind of political messiah.
When Pandora’s box was opened over a decade ago and MAGA crawled out, it didn’t just survive—it thrived. It’s now a deeply embedded political movement that’s not going away anytime soon. Several prominent MAGA loyalists (including three family members…) are already eyeing a 2028 run—assuming Trump doesn’t manage to ‘weasel’ a third term for himself.
As Canada and its provinces plan for the next three and a half years, we must not fall into the trap of assuming things will improve when Trump’s term ends. Our long friendly relationship with the USA is finished. We must find international markets for our resources, and just as importantly, invest in developing our own industries to process much of those resources into value-added products. (i.e. stop shipping raw logs so other countries can mill them and profit from the finished lumber)
Our future depends on it – if we fail, we may end up as a star on a flag.
(Response: Even if there is a new trade deal with the US in the next few weeks or months, there’s no telling what else will anger the unstable Mad Hatter over the next two years. And with an intimidated/impotent House and complicit/corrupted Supreme Court backing him up, who knows what else will set Trump off to attack Canada again and again. By expanding our access to Asia and the EU, we will be less vulnerable …and BC/Quebec should not be Trump’s patsies standing in the way of our own “liberation”. Ho)
We must acknowledge the fact that Canada is at war with the Trump/MAGA USA. It is asymmetrical warfare and the Trump/MAGA faction wants to annex Canada, with its notion of manifest destiny.
The American home-spun Evangelicals (I hesitate to call them Christians), abetted by Hollywood History preaches this nonsense to their supporters.
There is an alternative to move goods and oil for export to Europe and that is through the ports of Churchill in Manitoba and Moosenne in Ontario, without exciting those in BC and Quebec. Manitoba premier Wab Kinew has been touting Churchill as a viable port for export of oil since the beginning of Trumps attacks on Canada.
As I first stated, Canada is at war, and we must plan our economy as we were in a war and start investing in what is needed and not what politcans deemed important to get reelected.
As for the charade of “trade negotiations” forget it, they are illegal anyways because congress must pass the law and if they don’t there is nothing to keep the signed pack legal. The rule of law is dead in the USA.
The best thing to do is to walk away, from all negotiations, including the “Gold Dome” nonsense and tell the USA either we do negotiations legally, there will be no negotiations.
By the way, the USA has limited space for the export of oil and there is no coal loading port on the west coast, thus those BN&SF trains coming north are bringing dirty Montana coal and volatile Braken Oil into BC for export. Stop the coal and oil would hurt the USA.
Trump has not just screwed Canada, but he has screwed the USA by creating a trade war, masquerading the real war and that is the annexation of Canada.
(Response: Northern ports in Manitoba and Ontario do offer an alternative, but let’s keep it real: BC’s west coast and ports in the Maritimes would be easiest and likely less costly than much longer ship journeys to the northern ports, not to mention the challenges of battling the ice. Oil and gas are going to be an energy source in many parts of the Asia Pacific and Europe for generations more … and Canada has not only an opportunity, but also a duty to help supply it. Ho)
Here, here, thumping my desk in approval!
The economic strangulation of our economy by many different governments is puzzling and very disconcerting. The resources many would seek to leave alone only enables repressive governed nation’s economic successes. Warmongering madmen would be far less threatening if their economies were not the only ones increasing output to match demand.
Canada’s greatest strength in economic terms is the vast array of resources and tillable land. These are under utilized and folks like Trump always exploit opportunities like the ones we create.
Energy self sufficiency should have been achieved over a decade ago, think of the economic boost from stopping oil imports?
Beautiful, cool & damp July day in the Shuswaps, very temperate summer this year, my mini-max thermometer says the hottest day has been 31.7, last yr & yr before over 40.
(Response: Times have changed; circumstances have changed; the Canada-US relationship has changed … and BC and Quebec (and all Canadian provinces) must react now to the new reality. What we have that other countries other than the US need/want are our natural resources … and the only way to export them is by pipeline/trains and ultimately by ships. And surely, with modern technology, materials and regulations it can all be done safely and environmentally responsibly. Ho)