BC’s economy is in bigger trouble than many people realize.
The province’s GDP growth rate in 2023 was only 1.6% … down considerably from 3.8% in 2022; for 2024, it was projected to be even worse, only .08%; the unemployment rate in December 2024 was 6%, up from 5.6% the same month in 2023; the government deficit in the March Budget was forecast at $10.9 billion, up from the previous record deficit of $9.1 billion.; and, province’s debt was projected to reach $156 Billion by the end of the year.
And most of that happened pre-Trump!
“The government of British Columbia says if president-elect Donald Trump follows through with his promise of a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods once his presidency begins, it could result in the province losing about $69 billion by 2028,” the Vancouver Sun has reported. (You can read the full story here: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/trump-tariff-threat-bc-69-billion-1.7433240.)
And the Credit Ratings agencies are paying attention.
“Province of British Columbia Downgraded to “A+” from “AA” on Continued Record Deficits: Outlook Negative” read the headline on the S&P Global Ratings report in April. (Read the full report here: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/british-columbians-our-governments/government-finances/debt-management/bc-credit-rating-sp.pdf.)
“The negative outlook reflects that there is at least a one-in-three chance that in a more
uncertain economic environment, the province’s financial management will take insufficient
steps to ensure a fiscal consolidation path, leading to further weakening of B.C.’s
creditworthiness over the next two years,” the report warns global investors.
BC has to get its economy growing again … fast!
Bill 15: the Infrastructures Projects Act is one of the tools the BC government’s believes could do that.
The legislation “allows the provincial cabinet to fast-track approval of major public infrastructure projects, such as schools, hospitals, cancer centres, student housing and any other projects deemed “provincially significant,” like critical mineral mines, through an expedited environmental assessment process and easing of the permitting procedure,” the Vancouver Sun reported last week.
No doubt about it: BC needs investment and growth … billions of dollars worth to get the province through the Trump-era threats, tariffs and turmoil.
Many of these projects are badly needed, some well past due … and could create tens of thousands of jobs in BC, directly and indirectly.
However, many community groups, environmental organizations, municipalities, regional governments and First Nations worry “expediting” procedures by Cabinet Order could cut them out of the process.
They have a point.
Consultations with other levels of government, community and environmental groups are important.
I suspect a lot of them still on the drawing board have already been the subject of multiple discussions, reports, studies, meetings and negotiations.
Endless consultations, considerations, changes … and, yes, even attempted blackmail/shakedowns … can add huge costs and YEARS to major projects … making some of them (especially those where private investment is required) no longer viable.
Given the state of the economy, and the already-evident impact of Trump’s war against Canada, BC can little afford more excessive delays to cater to the demands of un-elected protestors, shakedown artists, or environmental terrorists.
Premier David Eby and his NDP government were elected to govern the province and stimulate BC’s flagging economy.
It’s time to get the job done!
Harv Oberfeld
(Follow @harveyoberfeld on “X” for FREE First Alerts to new postings on this blog.)
When Governments go top heavy and over pander to activist and special interest communities and groups and not take part in and listen to the ctual kitchen table conversation of the nation or province then they will eventually lose the game and in this day and age of economic uncertainty and societal division then we will see the rise of the authoritarianand even fascist bent styles of leaderships getting the votes from a frustrated and angered population majority. The United States proved that by voting in Trump. Even though Kamala Harris took over as front runner for the Democrats she and the party listened and bent to the winds of the activist groups and chants way more than the kitchen table conversation of Americans. They just didn’t get it.
As much as some concerns and issues are very important and need attention andvneed to be addressed, they cant become the main focus for a government to campaign on or govern on or give in to over the of the mainstream interests of the nation or province. When I saw where the BCNDP were going with Reconciliation for example, in so far as trying to legislate our land act to allow an eqaul or greater control over all BC crown land that would be tantamount to possible parallel, governance having eqaul control of the province itself basically then I seen it right there that the NDP may come close to losing or lose. It was close. I thought at first in anger I suppose, what is the use of voting for them if they are going to continue to stab us in the back anyways and set the stage for avpossible unelected parallel governing body. I believe in Reconciliation and becoming one for all and all for one for the people and by the people together under the banner of one government that is voted in by the people but not for two. That is completely against the democratic principles of what we are supposed to be and that’s what divides a nation or province and causes people to vote in the other side that can wash away any and even all progress of those othervgroups and interests. How stupid is that. God some of our politicians are really stupid and selfish people.
On that note maybe you are right and hopefully very right, that Eby is learning how to really govern for the people and is listening to the conversations around the kitchen tables of the province and do what’s needed to be done, and under one government in control for the peoples best interest as a one whole part.
(Response: Governments play a very dangerous game if they yield veto or even share decision-making power to any kind of community groups, whether they be first nations or environmental activists or bicyclists or just so-called concerned citizens. The public elect one government at each level: that government has the ultimate responsibility to the people to make the decisions governing areas of their jurisdiction.Consultation is fine, but ultimately it’s those the voters chose who should make decisions and get projects going. If the public don’t like it, throw the bums out next election! Ho)
A number of people made suggestions regarding the need for more and better roads and highways and buses and rapid transit. Agreed. My concern is, Who is going to pay for it all?. Next thought, if we use provincial monies or federal what will not get done. My take on all the transportation issues are, can’t remember any one dying for sitting in traffic for 30 minutes or even 60 minutes longer but people could die without more medical services, health care provides, etc. better services for seniors and people with mental health services.
Part of the problem with transport issues is no government ever builds roads, bridges, etc. large enough for the future. Politicians, voters ought to have known when they built the Oak St. bridge it wouldn’t be big enough and sure enough, the line ups started not that long after. Much of it wasn’t noticed because every one had to stop to pay tolls but once the tolls were off you could notice. the Knight St. bridge was nice, but it ought to have had one or two extra lanes going each way and easier on ramps. That could have been done if they had the extra lanes.
When I was a kid, there was a tram in Richmond which went from Steveston to Marpole. Worked well. We used to take the tram to go into Vancouver and then take the bus. I’ve heard of the Inter Urban but people were buying cars and those cars became priority. There will be blips in our economy and growth, but B.C. will continue to grow. Lets plan for that. (lived in Richmond when the population hit 25K, Landsdown was a race track, knew where the first airport was and its not Sea Island, and our high schools teacher went duck hunting where our high school stood, Richmond High, the B.C. Electric Building was built in Vancouver and was the highest building in the city–those employed by B.C. Electric and their families were able to go the to top floor and enjoy the view. Our Mom took us there.
Politicians and citizens ought to remember London England started as a village and grew to what it is today.
(Response: Governments have money … they sure collect enough of it from all kinds of taxes and fees! It is a matter of priorities… where they spend it all. The budget for the FIFA games alone is about $500 million, including the BC government’s contribution of about $145 million. For seven soccer games. Just think what the could be done with that money! Ho)
You’ll never get an argument from me regarding FIFA. Governments ought not to be spending taxpayer money on things such as FIFA and the Olympics. We have other priorities. These games are played by multi millionaires who work for billionaires. Its a rigged game for taxpayers. We ought not to support any of it.
Tournaments for amateurs, real amateurs/kids/I can see that, if not too expensive but when governments start building stadiums, pools, fields for professionals and their employers, not so much. They can use their own money, not tax dollars.
If my taxes were raised, even considerably for hospitals, schools, housing, I’m good for that. Sports for professionals not so much. There are a lot of parks in this province, lots of people have huge yards, there is enough room for the people of B.C. to play sports.
(Response: If governments (municipal, regional, provincial, federal and their various agencies) raise taxes/fees on the working/middle classes even more, we will almost be reverting to the days of slavery …where those who do the labour have nothing left after having taxes, rents, food and clothing costs, Hydro, water, cable, transit being taken away from them. And yet, every time I turn on the TV I keep seeing groups demanding the governments spend more on their pet projects. I just wish “reporters” started asking every time “And where will the added funds come from????” Ho)
The problem with ” the need for more and better roads and highways and buses and rapid transit”, is that these projects are built to suit politcal agendas and winning the next election and the cost be damned.
There is also very little public oversight except for the ‘traveling dog and pony shows’ to sell a project to the public.
Just in – the NDP is holding “public input” for the Massey Tunnel replacement – OK, I thought it was a done deal, obviously its not.
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2025/05/23/bc-massey-tunnel-replacement-public-feedback/
The meetings are being in Delta and Richmond, yet the major traffic congestion comes from Surrey/White Rock and no meetings there. another “dog and pony” show, nothing more. As the planning has been done, this is strictly PR to say it will be shovel ready at the beginning of the next election.
It is the same for rapid transit, over $25 billion spent in the past 40 years building SkyTrain, doing the same thing over and over again, ever hoping for different results, but not designing a transit system that is user-friendly.
Not well advertised is that mode share for transit is slowly falling and the ridership increases are coming strictly from population growth. This is not good for many reasons.
Every major expenditure is so designed for the maximum politcal benefit such a the FIFA games, which will give the politcans taxpayer funded photo-ops and the important 10 second sound bytes for the evening news …….meanwhile the DTES rots and gridlock becomes endemic.
The NDP just can’t seem figure out that government is here to govern for the interests of all under one government that makes the final tough decisions when needed for the majority. Not every interest, activist group or even group that wants primary decision making on all British Columbians land along side our primary government that we actually voted for and is supposed to be the only one that was voted in to govern. Not backroom agreements behind our backs to give power to Thats why they almost lost last time.
This time they will lose if they can’t get their act together in not trying to please every self interest group out there. They’re the worst dummies for trying to play that balancing act of trying to grab votes from wherever they can. Horgan only governed, not won, but was picked because of Green support. He won the re-election because of Covid. Understandable seeing that people just figured oh well, their in now during Covid might as well keep them there because of the situation. Eby almost lost this time if it weren’t for a few wackos in Rustads group that turned many off.
The best example I think of a major NDP political suicide ventire was because of backroom dealings behind the voters backs was the them trying to implement and legislate policies for taking away how crown land is governed by the duly elected government and the people and end up having an unelected parallel government. These kinds of political party’s never last to long because of their alway playing to the winds of activist and special interest extremes but never really listening to the kitchen table conversations of British Columbians.
(Response: I get the impression the BC NDP … especially Eby …is starting to realize how they lost a lot of support among working voters, who saw them as catering far too much to activists, self-interest groups etc. rather than the mainstream. Witness how fast Eby canned that downtown eastside consultant when unannounced huge contract was revealed by Global TV and the public reaction was widely negative. I don’t think the pre-election NDP would have caved so fast! Now let’s see how they do in getting many job-creating projects going! Ho)
Most of this article looks well-researched and thoughtful, but I fear you lose some credibility when you spiral into name-calling.
Protests are essential to a heathy democracy and can represent the will of the people in ways that elections cannot. They offer marginalized groups – the youth, Indigenous peoples, envrionemntalists, etc. – a means of making their voices heard in a form not limited by legal status, age requirements, or gerrymandering.
I fear that your use of the term “terrorist” to denote people trying to save our planet from climate change and mass extinction both mis characterizes them as bad actors and diminishes the heavy weight of the word.
As for members of the First Nations, I have a hard time justifying telling them to shut up and obey the BC government, when that government stole their land, rights, cultures, and religious objects. Indigenous people alone do not have the population to vote out a government, even if every nation worked together, so how can one justify telling them to elect a different government if they’re upset?
While I respect your opinion, I would have liked to see you delve into why you consider these infringements on people’s rights to be justified. I think a good case could be made, and I would have enjoyed seeing you make it.
(Response: i’m not sure where you see any name-calling? As you may have noticed, the title of this blog is Keeping it Real … And what I try to do on here is tell it exactly as I see it. As I clearly stated, consultation, and even accommodation after negotiation is fine, but the government was elected to govern and at some point, it has to proceed with its mandate and get projects off the drawing board and into reality. No community groups or activists have the right to demand that projects be halted just because they don’t like them. And certainly no groups should hold up projects unless they get big payouts to let them proceed! If they feel so strongly about it, let them run for office the next time around and see if the public agrees with them. Ho)
On soapbox!
The problem in BC can be traced to politcal corruption, compounded by the complete abdication of the province to plan for the future.
I have been advocating for better transit for over 40 years in the province and I have seen this fiasco coming for over two decades.
In BC all mega projects are built to win elections, all business cases for these mega projects are politcal documents masquerading as technical documents.
What can go wrong?
To put my cards on the table currently I am advocating for the “return of the interurban” for the rail for the Valley Group. In today’s cost, a Marpole to Chilliwack regional railway, using electrical multiple unites (EMU’s) using the former BC Electric route would cost under $2 billion and provide a maximum of 3 trains per hour per direction and a full trip would be 120 minutes end to end.
We engaged Leewood Projects for a study (Leewood Study) and it was released 15 years ago and it has been well vetted both in Canada and across the pond.
It has been ignored. The main reason why is that it would out preform TransLink’s and the provincial government’s now $16 billion , 21.7 km extension to both the Expo and Millennium Lines. Can’t have that can we!
Let us not forget the now $8 billion cost for the completion of the Broadway subway to UBC, again on a route with nowhere near the ridership to justify a subway.
The modern interurban would also provide relief for the congested #1 highway, where the government is spending, now $10 billion to rebuild the highway to increase capacity. The question is; “capacity to where?”
Then there is the horror story of the replacing of the Massey Tunnel fiasco, where the original plan was to replace the tunnel with a bridge to allow deep draft Cape max oilers and coaliers to load dirty Montana Coal and Braken Oil, via the BN&SF (so they do not have to pay wheelage to BC Rail going to the Delta Supper Port) at Surrey docks.
For reasons too long to list the plan was dropped but not the tunnel replacement.
The on going “tunnel/bridge fatigue” is now at $6 billion plus tunnel and the reason for the tunnel is that the bedrock is so deep for the foundations of the bridge, that the cost was massive, far more what certain politicos are claiming.
But the big problem is that the extra traffic the new crossing will attract will be stuck in gridlock in Richmond because, there are only 8 lanes of traffic, including the Queensborough from Richmond to Vancouver/New Westminster, unchanged since 1976.
The Canada Line needs a $2 billion rehab before 1 cm of new line is built and the SNC Lavalin Concessionaire of the P-3 project isn’t interested.
The list goes on and on.
Until government stops gold-plating projects; until real planning takes place with full public input and not the current dog and pony shows that are currently done, giving the government more power to push through politcal agendas at the expense of the taxpayer will increase at hyper speed.
David Eby has caught the “Trump” disease and authoritarianism is what he wants and giving him more power, mainly to enrich politcal friends, would be a massive mistake.
Off soapbox!
(Response: I have been critical and watching Eby/NDP government closely, as readers know, but I have not concluded he/they have “caught the ‘Trump’ disease and authoritarianism” … yet. Maybe they’re finally just trying to govern …as they were elected to do … instead of catering to and pandering to so many activists, protest groups and un-elected self-proclaimed shakedown artists. Ho)
A 3rd crossing of the North and South Arm of the Fraser River is needed.
Knights street Bridge and the Deas tunnel ( and the Queensborough /Alex Fraser Bridge option) need another route north south to relieve the traffic pressure.
A bridge immediately south of Vancouver’s Boundary Road and Marine Drive over the North arm of the Fraser…heading due south on #8 Road in Richmond.
#8 road bisects the East West connector and also ( with another bridge or tunnel crossing the south Fraser could tie into the Hwy 17 By-pass.
A third crossing of both arms of the Fraser is desperately needed.
Unfortunately the 10, 20, 30 year “planning, discussion, replan” indecision process time frame…is ludicrous.
The original plan for a new crossing of the Fraser was a bridge/tunnel complex from around 80th Ave in Delta to Burnaby’s ‘big Bend’ industrial area. I was at a meeting when this was announced around 2010.
this would take pressure off both the Massey Tunnel and the Alex Fraser Bridge 9which steep gradients play havoc with commercial vehicles.)
This all changed when the Port authority and the “pay to play” Christy Clark Government made the switcheroo to replace the Massey Tunnel – mentioned in my previous post – as it was acting as a dike preventing deep hulled colliers and tankers from passing over it.
There is now talk of again building a #5 road, Fraser St 4 lane bridge, but with current finances of the province, and the anti-car faction in Vancouver, I doubt we will see any movement on that front.
The anti-car faction is one of the “special interest” groups which seem to have the ear of the NDP. Gregor & the critical mass morons have effectively gridlocked much of the lower mainland. Personal vehicles & delivery vehicles are a reality, critical mass can attempt to refute this basic fact all day, they’ll still be delusional.
Any new crossing from Richmond to South Van or Burnaby would help, but as with all road expansion, being careful to avoid just moving congestion down the road a KM or 2 is bad planning.
Building a massive bridge on Loon shit (Massey) was never a decent concept, and that Christy gaffe was 100% about deeper draft vessels to Surrey Fraser for US coal which has an export cap from US ports. My wife was employed in the shipping industry in Vancouver at that time. The shipping industry in Vancouver is largely a Chinese operation. Research that one….
Just to add: The coal and oil were coming via the BN&SF Railway and they did not want to pay wheelage for the coal/oil trains operating on the BC Rail, Railway – and yes BC Rail still survives and operates the Superport Railway from Coalbrook Junction to the Supperport!
The bureaucratic bloat grows.
The Deas tunnel, the Deas Bridge, back to the tunnel, and still they talk and shuffle and talk and shuffle.
Its no surprise why Kinder Morgan walked from the Trans Mountain pipeline upgrade.
Dealing with the Feds, endless 1st Nations talks, the provinces, the municipalities, ..everyone standing with their hand out.
The Canadian version of a shakedown.
See ya.
This country’s productivity is swirling the drain with it’s endless self flagellation, endless bureaucracy, endless unrealistic political promises.
Canada has become Cant-a-duh.
(Response: The government(s) should consult with First Nations and other communities as well when a major project will impact their lands/lives. BUT the decision is still the government’s to make …and if people don’t like it, they can throw them out in the next election. And it’s time to get tough with those activists who oppose almost every project .. and get the work and the jobs going! Ho)
Many recent concepts the BCNDP have put forward call to account their past choices. Expediting permits, environmental reviews and the like after many previous actions which stifled and created multiple roadblocks for projects is admitting the past mistakes?
Carbon tax gone (the only reason inflation appears to be not a factor in recent reports), with zero talk of what tasks those past carbon levy collectors & admin folks now do for the taxpayer? Couple the sentence above with the massive increases in Provincial employees and ask what if any BC Govt. service is now better than it was before the hiring spree of the past 5 years?
Up here in the Shuswap/N Okanagan, it’s almost impossible to find anyone who supports any of this government’s concepts. I interact with many FN people, business owners, regular working types and farmers, not 1 ever mentions the BC Govt. in anything remotely approaching a supportive manner. Traffic here is a mess, highway maintenance contractor is foreign owned and not efficient or attentive. Yes a new 4 lane expansion on hwy 1 but far too many years of disruptions in the process. Nice shiny bling subway part of the way to UBC, we get 10 years of construction which disrupts and increases the costs of many items sold in Metro Vancouver. The contracted corporate entities doing most of these projects get endless change work orders, increases in budget and shiny signs about completion dates, I see failures to adhere to contracts, sloppy bids, health & safety violations and far too many disruptions.
Regional governments (both municipal & regional district) becoming far too bureaucratically involved, catering to small vocal groups which tend to far exceed any common sense in their ranting and raging. The loud minority complainers seem to be eclipsing the concerns of the average citizen, and hey with our current crop of “Political self survival” elected officials in office, I suppose the dry bearing whiners are getting the grease?
Capital projects are mostly all over budget, late and often not lasting as long as described during bidding & contract letting. Update on Broadway subway budget? Update on N Van sewage mess? Update on Iona rebuild? Accurate update on budget for Massey tunnel? Still no real effort to avoid a repeat of the Sumas Prarie flooding issue?
The Province’s business is not open, accountable, accessible nor efficient. We once had those attributes, the most past 3 decades have seen a remarkable lowering of standards, this is troubling given the massive increases in employees and bureaucratic nonsense in conjunction with a constant relaxing of competitive bidding criteria for corporate entities.
Large increase in employees coupled with a marked decrease in efficiency? A recipe for long term fiscal failure, ratchet up the debt servicing costs for all!
(Response: BC has had a bad reputation as a difficult place to get major resource projects done. I support consultation with various governments, environmental and community groups …but at some point, the government has to govern … make decisions and proceed if the proposed project is viable and various concerns can be addressed. And they must not let un-elected activists, extremists or community blackmailers demanding cash payoffs stop worthy projects that can provide jobs and revenues for the people of BC. Ho)
Yes we are in trouble. Perhaps when we all end the legislation that keeps Provinces from trading with one another … just may get some of the economy moving in the right direction. I see where Ontario has worked that out with the Maritimes, and Manitoba with Ontario. One wonders if our elected NDP government will do the same, and quickly.. Big meeting June to talk all this over …
(Response: There are 158,000 British Columbians who want to work, but can’t find jobs. Just think about how that impacts their lives, their families. Time for the government(s) to get clearly needed and already discussed/consulted projects going! And time to get tough with those activist types/groups who try to block just about any projects/developments in BC … unless they get to dictate what/how they are done or demand payoffs to stop hindering/harassing any development. Ho)