The good news for the NDP, according to a just-released poll by the Leger group, is that David Eby and the NDP would win a majority government, if a provincial election was held now.
The bad news for the NDP, though, is that there is no election scheduled right now … and the NDP’s lead over the BC Conservatives is shrinking … even though the Official Opposition still has no full-time leader.
The survey of just over 1,000 British Columbians shows 44% would vote NDP; 38% Conservative, 9% Green.
That’s a drop of 4% for the NDP, since October.
Pollster Steve Mossop, as reported in The Vancouver Sun, said “more than half, or 54 per cent, believes the province is on the wrong track, a figure Mossop said indicates a strong desire for change.”
“The government’s disapproval ratings are up on a number of issues, including housing, health care and the opioid crisis, as well as the economy, provincial-municipal relations, and reconciliation with First Nations,” the Sun reported.
(You can read their full article here: https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/bc-ndp-lead-shrinks-says-poll.).
““We got mounting pressure on the economy, with Trump and tariffs, and we got increasing deficits in B.C., and there seems to be a lot of voter dissatisfaction over how the NDP has been handling things,” Mossop said.
And in several key areas … the economy, health care and public safety … voter confidence in the NDP is on the decline.
Most intriguing is that the Conservatives narrowed the gap, even without a full-time leader, out there regularly critiquing the government, … and their leadership race won’t conclude until the end of May.
Just imagine what the polls will show if their new standard-bearer ignites public interest … and support for change!
Harv Oberfeld
(Follow @harveyoberfeld on “X” for FREE Alerts to new postings on this blog.)
Political self preservation, a very interesting question for all in office. Does one’s own ego eclipse the greater goals & vision of the party? Does the prospect of changing priorities within a party tarnish past goals & ambitions? Does fear of “unintended consequences” after a leader change enter the equation?
Political succession is a varied exercise, often controlled more by party backroom hacks than party members, public opinion or media scrutiny. The unelected bureaucratic top dogs have too much sway these days, often trumping or eclipsing concerns of lesser elected party members. Never in my 6+ decades can I recall so many hacks of somewhat questionable histories wielding so much power. I suppose the centralization of power in the leader’s inner circle has now become some sort of standard?
The BC Cons have overhauled and sent Rusty off, the Greens have a new (albiet unelected) leader, the BCUP/Christy club has waffled themselves off to the history books, but alas, the stiffest, least approachable appearing Eby, soldiers on with his Vision vancouver cabal in lockstep.
My riding in the interior will never vote in a Liberal/NDPer, just the opposite of many ridings in the lower mainland. This urban/rural divide is absolute and with mass immigration focused on Metro mostly, will only further advance the issues of urban voters due to population. Some in my region seem inclined to align with Alberta, others are aghast over ER closures (not really an issue in my local), many seem frustrated by mass downturns in the forests, something which has far more issues than just the orange tariff addict. Highways & roads up here are getting chump change compared to all the transport spending in the Metro region, subways & bike lanes have a very infinitesimal effect on transporting food, building materials and many economic items, however the billions spent seem to seldom leave the lower mainland, witness the past 5 years & almost no new road construction (save for hwy 1 4 lane expansion) and minuscule upgrades on primary routes which supply the Metro region. Every year we get storms, washed out roads, endless tire repairs from potholes, lax plowing & sanding ( those hwy contracting firms have loads of shiny equipment much of it sitting). No real concerted effort to mitigate fire potential around small towns, just wait til it erupts and then send in whoever is not already busy. BCAS overworked, under appreciated, and often disrespected by the bureaucracy, time to fund our local Heros!
Small towns folks paid hugely more carbon tax than urban folk, just for necessities, 40 kms to school bus / day here, 32 kms for small, high priced groceries, 70 mins for decent food pricing.
The fact that zero consumables made in Metro are necessities of life for most rural folks while many of the fruits of our labors are necessities for urban dwellers seems lost on many urban folks & especially the urban elected rulers du jour! I lived in the lower mainland for 4 decades, just for clarity. Finally a Hwy 1 expansion to the valley, only 3 decades late! Monday around noon I spent over an hour stopped on Hay 1 near Abbotsford, I hear that’s business as usual out that way these days.
The single most revealing, questionable issue today is the N Van sewage fiasco, 600% over budget, no completion date on the foreseeable horizon, and Metro’s leader (a career snowplow foreman) still has his job & Horgan/Eby refuse any inquiry about this mess?
Just a few thoughts from the cheap seats in the hinterland of BC Govt. Focus……
(Response: Lots of food for thought … especially for the politicos and party strategists. Of course, leaders must maintain control and power over their domain: but they must also keep it real … and realize when it’s time to take a walk in the snow …or rain. Eby is clearly not at that point yet, but if the litany of problems facing BC show no improvement or get even worse, some within the party or among their supporters could push him out the door. Ho)
RIsaak, you raise an interesting question about the rural/urban divide. As you say it is absolute and I will add that it is widely studied. It does raise an interesting question as our population heads to a population of a hundred million or as Statistics Reports 57.4 million by 2075. Given the evolving First Nations land rights, population growth, and the concentration of the population in urban centres will Canada need more provinces. Depending on the formula Metro Vancouver’s population at 100 million would be between a low of 8 million to a high of 12 million, while the rural population will be around 1.3 million. Will rural populations allow, as some can argue exists at this time, continue to allow a large urban population to direct their lives and lifestyles.
The Canadian Constitution does allow the for the creation of provinces out of existing provinces. It is not easy but possible and perhaps we should start thinking about this.
BC’s “Hurtlands” is a disgrace.
The problem is elections will be won and lost in Metro Vancouver and because of this, the NDP do not give a damn about those residing outside the lower mainland.
The amount of money the NDP throw at metro Vancouver and how they turn a blind eye to Metro Vancouver;s (GVRD’s) excess is telling.
The sad fact is Vancouver’s west side armchair socialists (and I am a lefty), the ones with healthy government pensions are so completely oblivious to the problems in the ‘Hurtlands”. (The NDP’s attitude remind me all those Americans sending “thoughts and prayers” after every mass shootings, but do nothing) They just do not care.
It’s disgraceful that we find ourselves without a properly functioning opposition, because the self serving clowns are trying find themseves. Never before have I ever seen such incompetence and division in opposition because of so many that are so immature that they they can’t get their fingers out and function for the good of the public instead of for themselves. And because of that the dummies in power, the Eby clowns can continue on with their rituals of waste and handouts because of the distractions that the Conservative opposition seem to be drowning in. Disrespectful Idiots the works. A shout out to them. Work for the good of all British Columbians. Did the a..holes lose themselves so badly that they forgot who they work for they just don’t care. Well I’ll say this, they can all go to hell for not doing their jobs that we hire them and pay them for.
(Response: The opposition to the NDP in BC has long been a coalition of people with somewhat disparate views … so choosing a leader can be really problematic. And unless the leader is strong enough to command respect and control, divisions, disagreements and even challenges will likely occur. That’s what makes the current choice now being made so critical. Ho)
What will happen between now and election day, who knows. Eby may retire and a new leader chosen. Looking at the current crop of Conservatives, with or without a leader doesn’t look good to me. Fortunately we have a good P.M. and given the political games south of the border, that is all I’m concerned about currently. There are a number of things which would cause me to stay out of Alberta and the most important one is the government attitude towards vaccines. Alberta has a whole other set of problems.
Your response to me:
“I predict … that if the Conservatives choose a credible leader who impresses voters, Eby will not stand for re-election. As for the timing of the next election, I think voters are tiring of Eby …and it’s getting worse the longer he stays.”
I am not disagreeing. But the timing of the next election is pretty much set. We have a fixed election date of Oct. 2028. Now we could have a handful of NDP MLAs cross the floor or resign or fall ill or die and the NDP loses its majority resulting in a non-confidence vote, but other than that there is no reason for the NDP calling an election. Even if they did (and it would piss off this NDP supporter enough to spoil my ballot) what is the gain? They win a spring election in 2026 and they gain another year and a half – to do what? If they can’t fix what they are doing wrong between now and Oct. 2028, they sure as hell won’t be able to do it in 2029.
The Liberals put in fixed election dates in 2005 for a reason. One it stops parties from hanging around a fifth year when it was clear that they were going to lose. Socreds in 90-91, NDP in 2000-2001. And two, it stops parties from calling snap elections when they think they can win. If you think you can win, then keep doing what you are doing for another year. Nobody is going to call an election if they think they will lose.
As for Eby. I will not get into the politics but let’s just say he doesn’t come across like a Horgan or Wab Kinew or Doug Ford. So my prediction.
Eby stays on for another year to see how things go. If things continue to go south he resigns sometime in 2027, giving the NDP time to select a new leader later in the year. That leader will then have a year to establish him/herself and prepare for the 2028 fall election. Write it down.
(Response; I know in politics you should never say “Never” ..but I can’t envision a single member of the current NDP caucus crossing the floor to the Conservatives. Never! As for your prediction about Eby … I would not bet against it: very plausible. The only thing that could derail the scenario/timing would be some big Eby-related revelation/scandal/crisis or yet another huge Court victory for the FN, after Eby “amends” DRIPA … and then private property rights are put at risk. Then he’d be gone much faster. Ho)
The Conservatives need to choose a leader who emphasizes the equality of all British Columbians, who welcomes investment in the province and rejects the policies of the radical left. It’s time for a leader who doesn’t embrace cellular gene therapy disguised as a vaccine, who supports local shipyards, who respects free speech, who doesn’t support hatred of Israel, who cares more about the rights of victims than of criminals, who rejects the indoctrination of children in our schools, and who understands the meaning of fiscal responsibility.
The key is a leader who truly represents the interests of all British Columbians, not just the interests of donors, environmental extremists and big government. I agree that a credible Conservative leader could force Premier Eby to resign. The premier has been such a disaster that I doubt his replacement could possibly be worse.
(Response: I keep thinking of Justin Trudeau when I see Eby: the latest poll shows public are growing increasingly tired of him, his failure to deliver solutions to housing affordability, crime, health care and his incessant … and now economically severely damaging … pandering to First Nations. But remember, Poilievre seemed a shoe-in for PM, until the Liberals dumped Trudeau for Carney. Methinks there is a lesson in there NDP strategists are keeping in mind. Ho)
DRIPA, that will be the NDP’s Achilles heel in the next election. If the court of appeal rules in favour of the Cowichans, just see the NDP tank like the Titanic.
A sleeper issue is the E&N on the Island as there is a groundswell of support for a transportation alternative other than highways.
On the mainland, TransLink and metro Vancouver will also act as a “knife in the back” for the NDP.
Eby’s treason remark has resonated with BC types, but that card has been now played and is fast becoming stale-dated.
Eby’s density mad planning is another issue which is dormant at the moment but people are beginning to realize it isn’t density, rather it is livable affordable housing and nowhere is that being built. The public are tired of “dog cage” condos, which are more like prison cells than livable housing.
Eby may call an election this spring, but that could backfire big time with the voters.
The Conservatives must elect a middle of the road leader who will cleanse the party of the anti-vax/science and religious types and run on a sound fiscal platform. If that happens, Eby is toast.
(Response; In politics … like comedy … timing is everything. Immediately after the last provincial election, Eby did a “mea culpa” and said he had heard the voters’ message loud and clear … and would change focus. I don’t sense many BC voters feel he/the NDP government have done that … or made ANYTHING much different/better. He would risk it all calling an early vote, but on the other hand, without major improvements, giving a new Conservative leader a chance to impress/organize and garner support/trust could end up worse. Ho)
Just a note:
I have coffee with friends a few times every week and for the past month the number one conversation is DRIPA and I can tell you Eby ain’t winning any awards with his actions.
I will tell you the fear of DRIPA is on the minds of us over 70’s crowd.
(Response: If there’s one consistent, world-wide, apolitical warning investment advisers/experts/analysts have sounded for many decades it’s that “Money likes stability”. Amending DRIPA and not just repealing it will do NOTHING to satisfy that requirement for major investors (we’re talking those who spend/invest/risk millions, hundreds of millions or billions). I can’t decide if it’s because Eby is so ideologically crippled, arrogant or just so dumb that he doesn’t understand that law of BIG money. Whatever the reason, I believe BC’s economy will pay a terrible price in lost opportunities/investment/development if the NDP government just tries to “amend” DRIPA and it thinks that will solve/guarantee against future FN court challenges, maybe using other clauses … and winning! Ho)
Mr. O; Your answer is completely correct!
As BC Real Estate continues to wallow in the doldrums.
As BC Lumber dies a slow death.
As more and more “For Lease” signs pop up like daffodils in the Spring…
As the Health Care crisis continues to dog the NDP.
As Metro Van Regional District financial mismanagement escalates.
As DRIPA land giveaways continue on a slow boil….
Let’s see what the polls say once the BC Conservatives elect a leader…..
(Response: Another key indicator, that I don’t believe is getting enough attention from the government, the Opposition, the media and the public is the3 fact that 70,000 British Columbians moved out of the province last year ..most of them to Alberta and Ontario. That’s a HUGE indicator of the failure of BC’s economy, government policies and belief in our future.A real alarm bell! Ho)
I have a friend who was “work from home” ….as was his wife.
Their daughter was in the last few years of High school and was being bullied relentlessly by a hulking brute who “identified as female” and beat pretty girls up.
The RCMP was called several times to speak with the parents about the assaults….the Single divorced Mom parent of the brute was the Guidance councilor…for the same high school… needless to say nothing was done and the bullying intensified.
So.. rather than risk their daughter’s suicide….They sold their house for a huge profit and moved to rural Alberta and built a huge, new house debt free with mucho dollars banked.
Their daughter had a wonderful final few years in a High school where up is up and down is down.
No NDP indoctrination…just school.
(Response: Too bad they felt they had to leave. And when 70,000 do the same in just one year, that issue should be getting a lot more attention than it is. Ho)
I plan on moving when I retire in a year or so.
Somewhere a bit less expensive.
The traffic, the crime, the politics, etc etc etc. in this province is intolerable.
(Response: When you retire, might I suggest there are many quite attractive smaller cities or towns within BC where traffic and crime and housing costs are also lower than our major urban areas. As for political angst …it’s everywhere! Ho)
There are lots of lovely places in B.C. to live. I have friends in Campbell River who love it. Others in the Comox Valley, me liked the Comox Valley but settled in Nanaimo and its wonderful. Good hospital which has now developed an area in the E.R. for seniors. Traffic is fine. crime is every where in the world these days but the solution to that is something no single political party is going to be able to deal with unless society in general is ready for a big shift. Housing costs, as Harvey writes are lower in many areas in this province.
(Response: The biggest challenge for younger people interested in re-locating to smaller, cheaper places to live is, of course, finding employment; for those who are retired, it’s having a doctor and hospital. But when a province loses 70,000 of its own residents in one year, something is clearly “off”. Ho)
The good news for the NDP: the election is well over 2 years away. And nobody knows the Conservative candidates although Darrel may be able to present us with a good deal.
The only poll that matters is election day.
In the 2024 election, the NDP got 44.8% down less than 1% in this poll. The Greens got 8.2%, down less than 1% in this poll. The Conservatives got 43.2%, down 5% in this poll.
Yes things can change but the NDP traditionally max out at 40% support and have benefited in the last couple of elections by the demise of the Liberal Party and the confusion of some of those”liberal” supporters about where they will plop their support.
Guess we find out Oct. 2028.
(Response: I predict (and have I ever been wrong before? Okay, okay … maybe this time I’ll be right!) that if the Conservatives choose a credible leader who impresses voters, Eby will not stand for re-election. As for the timing of the next election, I think voters are tiring of Eby …and it’s getting worse the longer he stays. Ho)