Pierre Poilievre is struggling.
After almost a lifetime in politics … with no other notable business or professional career … Poilievre’s own Ottawa voters tossed him out as their MP in the last federal election.
How embarrassing!
And making it worse, as Conservative Leader, Poilievre snatched defeat from the jaws of victory … the Conservatives losing to the Liberals AGAIN, after leading in the polls by as much as 26 points for many months prior to the April 28 election.
Now, Poilievre is fighting to return to the House of Commons by running in a by-election in one of the safest Conservative seats in Canada: Battle River-Crowfoot.
The previous MP, Damien Kurek, who captured 82.8% of the vote in April, stepped down so Alberta voters could help Leader Poilievre get back into the Commons.
But should they?
Battle River-Crowfoot voters need to ask themselves if they truly believe Polievre could beat Carney next time around?
Carney has generally impressed Canadians quite well since assuming the Liberal leadership after Trudeau.
The latest Nanos poll, published July 1, showed Canadians voicing 52.1% support for Carney, and only 23.2% for Poilievre.
“That represents a sharp decline for the Conservative leader, who has dropped nearly 10 points since the week before the election,” the Economic Times noted.
And if Carney manages to come up with a fair trade deal with the Mad Hatter down south, his popularity would likely rise even more.
Alberta voters should realize Poilievre clearly is clearly not as personally popular with Canadians as polls had indicated; it was just that Trudeau was so much more unpopular!
In fact, Poilievre’s personality now seems to grate, voters are increasingly turned off by what sometimes comes across as innate nastiness and, frankly, he doesn’t seem as smart or competent as Carney.
So, if by-election voters don’t really believe in their heart the Conservatives under Poilievre would beat the Liberals under Carney in the next election (which, with a minority government might not be as far off as many imagine) maybe they should send Poilievre packing now!
Why go through a by-election now, and then in January have Poilievre face the scheduled mandatory leadership review and, if he survives, end up with him for another couple of years … if they believe he would lose to Carney again?
There is an alternative.
Independent candidate Bonnie Critchley, a well-known local 44-year-old military veteran who served in Afghanistan and is running on the theme “This is Our Home, Our Riding”. And she is getting attention from Battle River-Crowfoot voters who see Poilievre as an outsider … and a loser.
This by-election is about more than voters choosing a new MP.
A defeat for Poilievre Aug 18 in Battle River-Crowfoot would allow the Conservatives to get on NOW with choosing a new leader … someone with more charisma and business/professional background, who would have more time for Canadians to get to know him or her and just might be able to successfully take on Carney when the next vote comes.
In the meantime, Alberta voters would end up with a local MP who more accurately mirrors themselves, and would no doubt pay more attention to their interests than his own.
Harv Oberfeld
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