Nathan Cullen was one of the NDP’s shining stars … both provincially and federally.
Notice I said “was”.
For more than 20 years, Cullen had served the people of of Skeena-Bulkley Valley: from 2004 to 2019 he won election, re-election and re-election again to Parliament in Ottawa as the local MP, served as NDP Finance critic and House Leader for the Official Opposition; in 2020, back home, he won election as the area’s MLA and over the years served as NDP Minister of Municipal Affairs, Minister of Fisheries and Minister of Lands and Resources.
Ahhh! Minister of Lands and Resources!
It was during Cullen’s tenure that the NDP came up with its ill-fated proposed changes to the BC Lands Act, which would give First Nations equal say with the provincial Legislature (ie. the government) over the future use of BC Crown lands.
The proposal had been “shelved” by the NDP government last February … but for many voters in Bulkley Valley-Stikine, apparently that was not good enough.
I sounded an alarm on this Blog that the contentious proposal was not getting a lot of attention in the media during the election campaign: https://harveyoberfeld.ca/the-forever-issue-that-should-be-fully-discussed-debated-before-election-day/.
The issue was subsequently raised during the Leaders’ Debate and Premier David Eby later conceded it had “created huge anxiety in the business community, in rural communities.”
On Oct. 19, Cullen suffered his first ever election loss … a bad one … and was tossed from office. Conservative Sharon Hartwell captured 52.3% of the vote; Cullen only 38.8%.
(For those interested, here’s another analysis of Cullen’s loss: https://thenarwhal.ca/bc-election-northwest-nathan-cullen/.)
Cullen, however, was not the only NDP incumbent who lost his seat to a Conservative challenger.
Five NDP Cabinet Ministers were among the 15 total MLA incumbents who lost their jobs October 19.
The NDP barely held on to power (capturing 47 seats to the Conservatives 44 and Greens 2), and it was quite startling how blue the province’s election results map had suddenly turned and how the NDP’s orange footprint had shrunk.
The political implications of the BC election outcome could extend far beyond the province’s border.
Such a huge shift to the Conservatives in BC, if sustained in the next federal election, would be devastating for the federal NDP!
The party currently holds 25 seats in Parliament … with more than HALF of them … 13 … representing BC ridings.
Just think about what that same major shift to Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives in BC federally would do to the NDP in Ottawa!
The federal NDP is already very thinly represented outside BC: Ontario 5 MPs; Manitoba 3; Alberta 2; Quebec 1; and, Nunavut 1. And who knows how many of those might also “go” Conservative in the next federal vote?
The latest polling from “338Canada.com”, published Oct. 27, would give the Conservatives a majority government with 217 seats, the Liberals 59 seats; the Bloc Quebecois 44 and the NDP 21.
And the survey projects the NDP would be reduced to only THREE federal MPs from BC … with the Conservatives taking 33 seats, the Liberals 6, the Greens 1 .
For the Liberals, it would be a defeat: for the NDP, it would be a catastrophe.
Perhaps it’s not just the Liberals who should be looking for a new leader and a new approach … as their only hope of resuscitating popular appeal?
Strange, the federal implications of the BC provincial election are not getting the attention they should.
Maybe now they will. 🙂
Harv Oberfeld
(Follow @harveyoberfeld.ca on “X” for FREE First Alerts to new postings on this BC-based Blog. No spam … just first alerts to new topics up for discussion.)
I wonder how many NDP members regret getting rid of Thomas Mulcair? He had far better judgement than Jagmeet and he spoke about issues that were relevant to most Canadians.
(Response: I occasionally see Mulcair on TV commenting on federal issues: still displays considerable knowledge and charisma when he speaks. I suspect he would sell better than Singh among working/middle class Canadians as an alternative to Trudeau and Poilievre. h.o)
I agree completely, Mulcair makes Singh look 3rd rate. Sadly, like the Liberals and conservatives never look 20 minutes into the future.
Where to start?
Sadly, the media in Canada today is more about entertainment (a la FOX News), rather than serious news reporting.
In Canada, the media wants to offend no one, thus the “news” is so watered down, that it ceases to become news and has become a weak pablum.
The NDP have a big problem, called Singh and Eby and both politcal parties should be looking for new leadership and soon.
Eby suffered a big loss and barely retains power. He has not lost any of his arrogance and has signaled “dam the torpedoes, full speed ahead”, despite his tepid promises of listening to the voters, yada, yada.
Singh just lives in another world and is just not PM material and now electoral events in BC, may prove very unpleasant in the next election.
The problem in Canada and BC is politcal inertia and a complete ignorance of current events, with politcans living in the 1970’s and dealing with 1970’s issues and not in the real world of 2024.
That no one is dealing with the REAL issues and squandering trillions of dollars on “been there done that” issues which play well in the bird seed press.
This has left the door open for Pollierve Federally and Rustad provincially and their religious, anti-science MAGA clone parties to win votes from the disaffected electorate.
No real housing plan, nor will there be with the Cons.
No real climate change policies except tax, tax, tax.
No real military planning, in an age of expanding regional wars.
No real anything, except pandering to the First Nations, China, India, and many religious groups such as Muslims (which makes a mockery of Canada being a secular nation).
No real future planning of anything, except what makes food photo-ops and 10 second sound bytes for the evening news for the diminishing viewers who now get their news elsewhere.
Canada is quickly turning into a dystopian nightmare where petty crime and tent cities are now a fact of life. The cities are too expensive for our kids to live in, their jobs paying minimal wages due to the influx of immigrants who tend to game the system, keeping most wages low, while specialized services are now almost cost prohibitive.
Canada is on the verge of being broken beyond repair and the Liberals and NDP are ignoring this, while the Conservatives are licking their chops to again fleece the taxpayer.
(Response: A few months ago, there were questions raised in the media about Singh’s future, but that was understandably usurped by the much more active and significant issue of Trudeau’s future. However, in light of the performance of the NDP in BC’s recent election, and the impact that could have on the NDP federally, I believe the only hope the party has to become more relevant would be a new leader, a charismatic reset and a fresh look/appeal to voters. Status quo will only help Poilievre/Conservatives. Time for the national media to wake up and start realizing the impact the BC swing will have federally. h.o.)
The Media in Canada, forget it they are as weak as water.
The recent election down south certainly showed how weak the mainstream media was, where Trump’s obvious dementia (he acts as my dad did about a year and a half before he died) was kept quiet and every misstep by Kamala H. was reported with vigor.
As ye sows, so shall ye reap.
Singh’s NDP now lack any and all relevance and have become a fringe ethnic party that very few listen to, let alone vote for. The Brampton incident further fuels this notion.
As the Trudeau Liberals implode under their vacuous leader and the Trumpian Conservatives surge in popularity, a Pollierve government is almost a certainty; I say almost because if a certain Herr Drumph South of the boarder institutes a 20% tariff on Canadian goods going to the USA and other restrictions on Canada US Trade as he has promised, I think the conservative support will dwindle fast and why Mr. Trudeau is waiting till summer to call an election.
I have not heard a peep from our corporate media on the economic quicksands facing Canada, though there are warning signals but hey this is Canada, we all want winter holidays in Florida/Mexico or Hawaii eh!
(Response: Although the next scheduled federal election is October 2025, I suspect Trudeau (if he stays) will be looking for “an issue” to go a little earlier … maybe a mandate to protect Canadian trade policies that come under attack by Trump’s Republicans. In other words, make the election Canada versus Trump …instead of Trudeau versus Poilievre. Watch! 🙂 h.o)
It’s interesting to note that a number of incumbent NDP MP’s are not seeking re-election (including a few from BC: Richard Cannings from the Okanagan, Rachel Blaney from Vancouver Island and one other, I think). That’s usually a sign that bad times are coming.
If the numbers you cite are accurate, it would be similar to the 1993 Federal Election, when Preston Manning’s Reform Party swept Western Canada. The NDP went from 19 seats in BC (and 37% of the popular vote) to 2 Seats (with only 15% of the popular vote). The NDP lost Vancouver East (the safest NDP seat in Canada) and even Dave Barrett lost his seat in Esquimalt to Reform. The NDP actually lost official party status in that election (though they regained it in 1997) but it really took them 20 years to recover from the drubbing they suffered in 1993.
Ultimately I think the real problem for the Federal NDP is the leadership (or lack thereof). Back in January, when Ed Broadbent died, I looked up some of his appearances on Jack Webster’s BCTV show on YouTube (and he made quite a few). Broadbent, whatever you thought of his politics, was a serious politician; he gave the impression that he could be Prime Minister (he was that knowledgeable about economics, foreign affairs, constitutional issues etc.) Also, for an Eastern Canadian politician, he seemed to know a lot about the problems in British Columbia and even had some interesting proposals. And he didn’t seem to tolerate what we would call ‘woke’ politics today from his Caucus (Broadbent actually removed Svend Robinson as Justice Critic when he proposed legalizing prostitution). Bluntly speaking, Singh has none of those qualities and I think that’s the big reason for the fall in support for the party.
There should be a Social Democratic party in Parliament to advocate for better social programs, lower income workers etc. Maybe a big loss is what the NDP need, so they can get back to basics, less of the obscure ‘woke’ issues, and more emphasis on real issues that affect working people.
(Response: Federal NDP MPs and supporters seem to accept the fact that they will not ever form government in this lifetime, so they see their role, at best, as being able to extract concessions to prop up the Liberals. However, if the BC results hold true across the country, the NDP’s leverage will be reduced or even eliminated in a Poilievre majority. The only thing that could bolster/re-invigorate the federal NDP’s stature would be a new leader, with more appeal nationwide… time for Singh to go, once he qualifies, reported;y in February, for his lucrative Parliamentary pension. h.o)
Hi Harvey, I don’t think any of us should think that Eby will keep the Indigenous file on the back burner for long. I could be wrong, but I think he thinks this is one of the acts this government will try to get through ASAP and will be a legacy for him to personally take credit for. A White Knight, if you will, and he will be a hero. After all, he is the smartest man in any room he enters, just ask him.
(Response: Nothing should surprise us in politics, but I’d be shocked if Eby/NDP … holding on to power with such a thin majority … advanced the proposed Lands Act changes. I think it would be gift to the Conservatives that would keep on giving, in terms of votes. h.o)
Nathan Cullens major political suicide was a good thing for British Columbians. If he kept office and the NDP kept their standing as it was pre election, I’m sure this Land Act proposal would not stay on that shelf for long. I believe your courage in writing about this deal that Cullen and his cohorts were going to try and literally sneak through behind the major majority of the BCers backs, was an very integral part in exposing the real important details and serious implications for all of our interests. How arrogant they must have been that cause them to be so blind as to think they could pull a fast one like this with no backlash from the rest of that community called British Columbia. I hope Cullen is now banished to the political bread lines that was his own doing.
You go where so much of scared media fear to tread Harvey.
(Response: Thanks. It’s the job of the media to raise uncomfortable issues that should be discussed and debated. It’s pathetic how much attention many devoted to years-old remarks of Bruce Chapman, a candidate most people had never heard of and who history will likely soon forget once his political career ends, and yet the media was giving almost NO attention to the proposed Lands Act changes that would impact/hurt/blackmail BC governments and all taxpayers FOREVER if they ever get passed. Glad I pushed that one! h.o)