The poll results surprised me. Premier David Eby on July 2 had scored some of the biggest commitments ever and $20 Billion from the federal government for BC projects. (I wrote about it on the blog:https://harveyoberfeld.ca/david-ebys-best-week-in-a-year-but-will-it-save-his-leadership/).
There was $10 Billion in federal spending for port improvements, $3.5 Billion for a new transmission line, $3 Billion for the Massey tunnel project, $500 million for a mine expansion, etc. etc.
Normally, any provincial leader should see a boost in the polls immediately after such a rare, successful achievement.
But not David Eby.
Eby’s personal popularity fell again in a poll released Thursday by the Angus Reid Institute.
“That’s down from 31 per cent in June and 40 per cent in December. It’s part of a continued freefall in popularity, illustrated over several polls the past few months,” wrote Rob Shaw in Business in Vancouver. (Read the full article here: https://www.biv.com/news/commentary/rob-shaw-eby-draws-a-bead-on-trump-as-his-own-polling-numbers-plunge-12589222.)
““Most troubling for Eby may be the views of his party’s past voters,” wrote the polling agency.
“Approval among 2024 BC NDP voters has dropped from 78 per cent to 53 per cent between June and July. This suggests that while the pipeline may have economic benefits, those inclined to support Eby are more upset about it than those inclined to oppose him are to give him kudos,” Angus Reid found.
So what’s going on?
Could that many people have been following my rants about Eby and his NDP government’s failings, misguided policies, health care shortcomings, pandering to druggies, crazies and DRIPA???
Or maybe, just maybe, a report that also came out last week … but largely ignored by the mainstream media … tells the story.
“B.C.’s Economy Has Gone From Leader to Laggard,” read the headline of a report by the Independent Contractors and Businesses Association (ICBA).
“British Columbia’s economy has been disproportionately kept afloat by hefty government spending while its private sector stalls, its export base shrinks, and its once-enviable public finances deteriorate faster than any province in half a century,” the ICBA found.
“Government activity was responsible for all economic growth in 2024, with public sector GDP growing 6.6 per cent annually over 2022-24 while the private sector managed just 1 per cent – one-third of the normal pace. Growth did pick up slightly in 2025, but the outlook for 2026-27 is subdued.”
“ Since 2019, B.C. has added 1.3 government-driven jobs for every new private-sector job. In the rest of Canada, the ratio is 0.6. The public-sector wage bill has nearly doubled in seven years, from $26.7 billion to $53.2 billion,” says the report.
“Taxpayer-supported provincial debt is on track to triple in just six years.”
That’s awful!
Government provides public services and increasing numbers of well-paying, stable jobs with better benefits than the private sector …. but generates no goods, manufactures no equipment, grows no farm foods, produces no grocery items, mines no minerals … ie. adds no material value to the economy.
“Exports have fallen to 13.5 per cent of B.C.’s GDP, barely half the national average, with the timber harvest down 45 per cent since 2015 and lumber shipments to China collapsing by 80 per cent over the period.”
Clearly, people are noticing … and feeling the pain! In the REAL economy … small and medium sized businesses, especially in communities outside the province’s major urban areas.
“For too long, the underlying weaknesses in our provincial economy have been papered over, masked by a handful of mega energy projects, record population growth, and an unprecedented expansion of government hiring and spending,” said Chris Gardner, ICBA President and CEO.
“Those tailwinds are now gone, and the structural cracks in our economic foundations are impossible to ignore.”
No wonder Eby’s popularity is continuing to fall!
And not even Billions of federal bucks for major projects could give him a boost.
Harv Oberfeld
🇨🇦🇨🇦Now more than ever …BUY CANADIAN!🇨🇦🇨🇦
(Follow @harveyoberfeld.ca on “X” for FREE First Alerts to new postings on this blog.)
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/caroline-elliott-b-c-s-odious-plan-to-give-public-property-in-victoria-to-indigenous-groups
There is no need for the Conservatives to panic. Kerry-Lynne Findlay knows that most voters don’t pay too much attention to politics during the summer, and she doesn’t need to run too fast at the beginning. She can start out slowly, and save her energy for the end of the race when she needs to be the first to pass the finish line.
The NDP has been a disaster, so its only hope is to find scandals and get the media to scare voters. I’m not sure if the story about native Canadians is accurate, but in any case, we should treat everyone equally. There’s absolutely no need to put one group of people ahead of any other. By doing that, the implication is that other groups are second, third or even lower. In my opinion, we can refer to native Canadians as indigenous or aboriginal but to give them the name “first” is really a term that comes from the left and one that is unnecessary.
The leader of the centrist party is the minister who introduced the sexual orientation ideology into the education curriculum, an attempt to make our schools the parents of our children and an absolute offence to all social conservatives. It reminds me of marxism. If social conservatives are made aware of that, I doubt they’ll vote for him.
Reducing crime, improving the economy and making life more affordable are the key issues for voters. There were two Hungarians who once argued about the importance of ideology and the economy. Istvan Szechenyi argued that voters were more concerned with economic development, with their own financial situation, than with ideology. Lajos Kossuth argued that ideology was the most important issue for voters. I agree with Istvan Szechenyi. Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s views on issues such as religion and marriage are far less important for them than taxes, jobs, grocery prices and affordable homes.
(Response: You are certainly correct: Summer is not exactly prime time for politics. However, I just can’t understand ANY politician running for office (especially the leader’s position) refusing to appear/take questions on CKNW’s top leading Mike Smyth show … BEFORE taking power. Usually politicians get more difficult to approach/interview AFTER taking power ..not when they are offered an open mike to pretty well say/promise anything they want. Not to mention what I personally believe is a politician’s DUTY to be available to take questions/explain positions and policies. Bizarre! Ho)
The NDP’s best polling chances are if no matter who’s in charge….. stands back and lets Kerry-Lynne Findley to keep screwing up.
Amateur hour.
What were the BC Conservative delegates that elected her thinking?
(Response: Watch the polls. If Findlay scores poorly, the sniping will begin. Ho)
Why are those here so afraid of our Conservatives? Most of their concerns are echoed right here.
I suspect that the NDP’s sloganeering was too effective, labelling conservatives asFar Right!!
(Response: I don’t believe people WANTED to be afraid of the Conservatives: many we looking forward to giving them a chance in office to get rid of Eby/NDP…even came so close in the last election! But since becoming the new leader, Findlay has disappointed many, to put it mildly. She has failed miserably a “public” relations …refusing interviews, saying No to invitations to appear on radio shows, and instead of being seen/heard/getting known everywhere by condemning Eby/NDP over mill closures, emergency hospital closures, more attacks on innocent civilians just walking on our streets … she’s almost nowhere! Read this: https://vancouversun.com/news/bc-conservative-dark-kerry-lynne-findlay-strategy. Ho)
I don’t like Eby or the NDP because the NDP we once knew is no longer. The party has morphed into the Vision(less) Vancouver Provincial Party, which as the name illustrates, a Vancouver (not even a Metro Vancouver) Party and nothing more.
Eby is part of that class of Vancouver West side armchair socialists who enjoy large pensions earned while working in the bureaucracy and those who have inherited monies and pretend to care for others, protesting pipelines and pretending they are “green”.
The Conservatives in both BC and Canada has been co-opted by the “Maple MAGA’s”, a fringe off shoot from the American MAGA movement, filled with anti this and anti that. They want to return to the world of the 1930’s, including polio, measles and a host of other dreadful diseases.
They are anti science and climate change deniers, with no grievance too small to complain about.
Both the NDP and the Conservatives share one trait, they do not give a damn about the electorate as they try to force their ethos on the population.
Both in my view are unfit for office.
We need a centrist party and I believe that is happening; we need politcans not afraid of the people and who actually listen to the people. Today’s politcans act as evangelical preachers forcing their will onto the populace and not being elected to do the people’s business.
Eby, proves daily that he does not take the job as Premier seriously and Findlay is fast proving that she does not care for the average voter by hiding from the media.
I am damn afraid of both the NDP and the Conservatives.
Is it possible that Kerry-Lynne Findlay and the BC Conservatives are not interested in governing and more interested representing the views of a very narrow base of constituents as Eldon described. Somewhat like the Federal NDP under David Lewis and other leaders of that era. They knew they would never win but could influence policy.
There appears no evidence that Kerry-Lynne Findlay is trying to broaden her base by reaching out to supporters with economic concerns about the direction of the province but different more liberal social values than hers.
If Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s approach does not change over the next 6 months I wonder how many existing BC Conservative MLAs, fearing the loss of their seats in the next election will abandon the party. Especially if a credible centralist party were to emerge.
(Response: I have no doubt she dreams of becoming Premier! But, as you say, she sure doesn’t seem to be doing much to broaden the party’s base …or appeal. If CentreBC gets its act together and attracts quality candidates (may be even some current Conservatives) we could be in ror some really interesting times ahead. Ho)
Don’t expect the BCCP to take advantage of what the dismal economic stats say. They are only concerned about the “Indians,” the “Freedom Convoy,” justifying Alberta seperatism, and “Radical Gender Ideology”
(Response If that is the public’s perception of the BC Conservative party, then they are already in trouble. Kerry-Lynne Findlay should out there, front and center, on every radio talk show or TV newscast she can get on talking about mill closures, the cost of living, healthcare, hospital emergency room closures, and public safety issues, even DRIPA … not whether First Nations should be called Indians instead. Ho)
I cannot predict the future. I don’t know if the NDP/Eby can recover from their blunders. I don’t know if the Conservatives/Findlay can look more electable. I don’t know if the Greens or OneBC can become more viable alternatives.
But here is my very serious question. If an election were held today, how many of us would be willing to gamble on the Greens or OneBC and put our X beside one of those party’s candidates, knowing that in doing so we might be splitting the vote against our current party of choice, either the Conservatives or NDP
Now just for fun ask yourself the same question if we lived in a province that had some kind of electoral reform, whether proportional representation or ranked ballots or runoffs or whatever where third+ parties were actually given a chance at winning even a handful of seats.
Most everybody here seems to want something other than one of the two current parties but we keep voting against electoral reform that would give us more choice. Under FPTP despite all my reservations about the NDP/Eby, I am never going to vote Conservative and I am not going to vote for a third party in fear my wasted vote will help the Conservatives. And I imagine most conservative on here have reservations about voting for a Findlay led Conservative party but, will use a similar logic, to do so anyway.
And this isn’t just a BC thing. I imagine a lot of people in the US would welcome a viable third party. And in the UK, Labour has a massive majority (60% of the seats) with only 33% of the popular vote although to their credit they have a system that gets rid of unpopular PMs without much need for even a party convention.
I have been a big supporter of electoral reform since the BC Liberals first referendum back in 2005. Sadly I don’t see it happening.
(Response: There once was a time when I supported proportional representation: after all, on paper, the idea of the winner taking all and those in second or third or fourth place ending up with no representation doesn’t sound right. And, after all, there are more than 125 countries that have some form of p.r. But then I started to notice when p.r. goes wrong, or where coalition governments depend on small minority support to govern, it can be a disaster: more political blackmail than co-operation… giving small extremist groups far more power than their numbers should actually warrant. As for BC, we certainly are in a political mess: a terribly unpopular leader/government, but no clear popular leader/alternative! If Eby called an election today, he just could win again! Or, if people voted for the Conservatives just to get rid of Eby/NDP … judging by wat I’ve seen/heard from them so far … we’d probably regret that as well! Ho)
Here’s a reason for fewer parties. I meant to say CenterBC not OneBC. Lol
The left’s playbook says,”when polling low, trot out PR as a distraction”!
Reality weighs in with,”PR only in times of flagging popularity, never when holding a majority”.
Deflect, deny, endlessly debate, rinse & repeat as often as needed.
The left is sure adept at recycling, eh?
Some random guy (me) wonders out loud if people would vote differently in the upcoming BC election if we had a different voting method than FPTP. Somehow this random person (me) is now part of the left’s playbook of “when polling is bad trot out PR.” lol
Who are the left by the way? When I was campaigning for electoral reform back in 2009, I was berated by NDP supporters at work because “don’t you realize that the NDP will never gain power under proportional representation.” Bill Tielemann one of the NDP’s top backroom boys was one of the main opponents of electoral reform during that referendum.
But you are right. Parties trot out PR when they think it will benefit them. Justin “this is the last election under FPTP” Trudeau was only interested in a ranked ballot because he figured that the Liberals would be the second choice of other party voters so they would always win. Any other system meant the possibility of sharing power so electoral reform was dropped. Horgan and Eby promised Weaver a referendum on electoral reform but were less than lukewarm during the voting process. I imagine the federal conservatives are opposed because they worry that the NDP and Liberals would always form a coalition and they would be forever shut out. Although my guess is that right now Carney would rather work with Poilievre than Avi Lewis.
All that aside, I wasn’t pushing for electoral reform. I was simple asking if in the upcoming BC election your vote would change if we had PR. Most everybody here seems to have some reservations about the NDP and Conservatives and would like to see a viable centrist party like Centre BC. My guess is that Centre BC no matter how good they look will have a hard time getting people to switch because of our fear of vote splitting. Too often we are voting against the other guy more than we are voting for our guy. A different voting system might change that.
(Response: Yes, CentreBC will face many challenges in getting itself well enough known and preferred, compared to the Official Opposition, which has a readily available forum (the Legislature) and approachable media. BUT .. and it’s a big BUT, if the Conservatives, under their new leader/team come out with several ideas/policies/statements many BC center-orientated voters find unacceptable, CentreBC could become the only reasonable alternative to the NDP, especially if Eby tries for another term. Ho)
When a Premier like Eby and his cabal of ideologues and fools show complete disrespect for the vast majority of the population to favour a very small percent of special interest with handouts and say and then the results are clear. We also can’t forget the craziness started under Horgan and Eby the activist legal expert who was right in their writing up the legislations and illegalities that served up THE DRIPA madness and problems and headaches that I just dont think is going to be going away anytime soon until the whole works is booted out of office. I hope all or more .property owners stand against this sham and scam job now and not later. It would be nuts not to. Anything can happen with these idiots running the government. It’s still a long way to an election, and people better wake up, because if they don’t then a bigger steamroller will come.
(Response: The polls show many British Columbians want change … but the way Kerry-Lynne Findlay has started out as the new Opposition leader, I’m not sure enough voters are ready to put her in power. It’s too bad Eby didn’t take my advice months ago and step aside: I think a new NDP leader, with a more focused centrist platform, could defeat the Findlay we have so far witnessed in an early election. Ho)
How does that change the NDP ideology of handouts, giveaways and backroom deals that siphon off the peoples revenues becausse of NDP activistic craziness. How would anything change on DRIPA and even more influence, veto power and unprecedented growth of parallel power and say over the decisions and governance of British Columbian, it’s people, land. What does a new leader going to do with all the already stupid ingrained NDP policies of uncertainties and craziness that affects society in so many negative ways for the very small minority. Good luck with that. I know the Conservatives need to get their head out, but I my family aren’t blind enough to think that just because a new leader comes to the NDP its going flip back the clock. My god.
(Response: No doubt the Eby/NDP government is ripe for the picking. But so far Kerry-Lynne Findlay doesn’t seem to be doing much to introduce herself to BC voters, let alone sell her party’s policies. Ho)
Eby and Trudeau jr 2 peas in a pod?
Seems to me our economy is based on Ebys government spending!
He has to go, the entire Eby team …
(Response: The way things are going, government employees in BC could eventually outnumber the private sector! Just imagine the tax rates those still working in the private sector will have to pay to support all those “public servants”! Ho)
The NDP and Eby have learned nothing, and forgotten nothing; they live in the past and re-fight old battles lost.
The NDP and Eby cannot see 20 minutes into the future and now we are paying the price.
I just hate to bring this up but the NDP’s absolute adherence to SkyTrain, which internationally is deemed a museum piece and has been unsalable for its now 50 year existence is costing the economy now close to $18 billion (full program) for the 21.7 km extensions to the Expo and millennium Lines.
The NDP’s close connection to both Bombardier and SNC Lavalin (the patent holders) has cost the taxpayers well over $10 billion more than they should have paid for a comparable service.
Now Alstom owns the the patents and will be abandoning production after the Vancouver order is completed, making spare parts even more expensive. Oh yes, the corporate media never did mention the out of court settlement between Alstom and TransLink because the MK.5 cars that were delivered were not the cars TransLink ordered from Bombardier.
But I digress.
I mention this because TransLink is still held in high odor by the taxpayer and again the corporate media are not reporting that ridership on Translink’s buses and trains is declining and has been in decline for some time. Ridership dropped 4.5% in April 2026 from April 2025! What has got TransLink’s bloated bureaucracy very worried is the at the “choice customers”, you know the ones that pay full fare are leaving the the system.
It is going to get from bad to worse I am afraid.
Metro Vancouver, the most corrupt regional government in BC, with absolutely zero taxpayer oversight, it has become a playground for politcans to collect stipends for doing very little (See: TransLink Mayor’s Council or as I call it “the ship of fools”)
The water treatment plant scandal is just a tip of the iceberg.
Where is Eby and the NDP? Nowhere!
Added to this is the Massey tunnel replacement soap opera, where zero regional planning has created a now $8 billion+ fiasco.
Eby and the NDP have absolutely enraged those deferring their taxes by charging compounding interest, so they can afford to live in their houses, because the NDP’s housing policies are such, most deferring their taxes have nowhere to go because smaller houses on smaller lots hardly exist anymore and all what is on offer are ill designed, dog cage style condos which no one wants to live in.
DRIPA goes without saying, but there is more as Eby and the NDP kow-tow to the first nations at every instance.
But now, it is how Eby and the NDP are so unprepared for this years firestorm of forest fires, long predicted, is more than shocking, but confirms that they feel they have already lost the “Hurtlands” and the next election will be won or lost in metro Vancouver.
Let the “Hurtlands” bleed is the NDP’s motto.
The only thing that will keep the NDP from a total wipe out, a la 2001, is the the Maple MAGA Conservatives, who scare the bejesus out of me, that if elected, will create a firestorm of protest, civil disobedience and outright electoral fiasco on a scale yet unreached in BC. Maybe its why they are keeping Fidlay incommunicado as she might pull a Farange. Oh, Count BinFace, we do need you!
That third centrist party had better get their act together fast!
(Response: The more I hear about Kerry-Lynne Findlay and her version of “Conservative” government, the worse I feel about them replacing the NDP. Almost looks like she is trying her best to make sure the NDP stays in power! I keep finding myself hoping that the new Centre BC party takes off as a reasonable centrist or fiscally center-right but socially centrist even mildly socially left alternative. Ho)
Edgar has it right- “We have to realize recent BC economy based on building speculative housing is dying.”
This was the backbone the economy and govt. income for years relying on the piles of money sloshing about in the economy to make things look good whilst slapping each other on the back, aided and abetted by compliant media talking heads drooling at the mouth that just couldn’t wait to report on the latest price rises, pausing long enough to drink the kool aid.
Had the media hammered away that increased real estate values should be the result of a vibrant economy, not be the economy and grilled the politicos on what else was the economy based on.
We are all aware of Eby’s record on finances and what was squandered, so as the debt rises the numerical amount of interest rises, and as an added bonus, since 2021 the province has been downgraded by the rating agencies 5 times, so now the % interest rate has also risen.
https://www.biv.com/news/economy-law-politics/bcs-latest-credit-downgrade-signals-something-wrong-with-finances-economist-12106560
With Eby’s awful numbers, how long will it be for the caucus and party brass to publicly realize he is an albatross circling over them and look out for self survival if he stays put as the next election is just over 2 years away. If he reads the polls and public sentiment he needs to leave enough runway for someone else to get established. Then the party hoping against hope there are enough right wing parties to split the vote next time, as the provincial equivalent of a Mark Carney coming out of nowhere to save the NDP probably won’t happen.
(Response: If Eby’s numbers remain low, the timing of his departure will be part of the NDPs strategy. You mentioned he should leave enough runway for somebody else to be established: that is not always the best move. (Ask Mark Carney). Quite often when a party decides to dump its leader, it wants a new one to come in with enough time to get known, but not enough time to make too many gaffs or show he or she is totally as ineffective as the previous leader. Maybe Eby thinks, given enough time, there will be a new Canada/US trade deal, big projects on the drawing board will result in actual jobs, and the BC economy will turn around… saving his political career. Ho)
It really is time for Mr. Eby to leave. He has to know it’s way past his due date. Take one for the team, sir. I saw him on the news when he was at the premiere’s meeting recently in PEI, while listening to Mr. Moe. The look on his face was like he was way off in lala land somewhere.
You can’t take a walk in the snow but I’m sure you can find some quiet sandy beach and you’ll come up with the right answer.
I saw a photo today of that handicapped man confined to a horizontal wheelchair who no longer qualifies for the Handi-dart service, Harvey. Whoever signed off to allow this travesty must have a cold cold heart and should be sacked.
(Response: What a horrible mess: someone with such a challenging physical handicap, yet succeeding to live life pretty well … cut off from a service he had been approved for and using for 28 years!! And they’re still looking into the decision ??? Shows me how out of touch the current government is with British Columbians. Better fix that before the next poll!!! Ho)
David Eby, and is it is not surprising given his background, that he is ruling from, for lack of a better word, the spectrum of identity politics. In Eby’s world view the government’s role is to right all the ills of the present and the past whether real or perceived. The economy and the well being of all the citizens of BC are not his priority. Eby governs from his base.
Now that BC, Canada, and most of the rest of the western world are caught in the midst of geopolitical reset, and technological revolution Eby and the BC NDP do not have the conceptual ability or skill to deal with the situation. People sense it and that is one reason his popularity is dropping. More government spending and debt will not resolve the situation in the longterm. We have to realize recent BC economy based on building speculative housing is dying.
We have to agree that we are all British Columbians and Canadians, and start building a province that can provide food and energy security, and as many have said we with need an industrial strategy and not additions to the safety net.
(Response: Seems to me that the big energy projects recently green-lighted will help BCs economy … but it will take years to see that. Eby’s problems are what the voters are seeing/experiencing now: high cost of groceries; gasoline; lack of growth of good jobs NOW; still terrible health care problems; DRIPA; homeless, druggies and crazies still all around us … and people feel not much is really being done to solve the problems NOW. And on top of it all, he does not come across himself as a very compassionate, warm or charismatic person for ordinary taxpayers, businesses… beyond his favoured few base. Ho)
The “No Damn Profit” party is holding serve. Private investment built this nation/province, now it’s a pariah? Actually it’s far too smart & savvy to risk today in BC given all the stunned choices made by the NDP.
Public (your children’s & their children’s) funds are not free, always spiral upwards in cost and only are truly needed when zero investor confidence exists. Think about the future debt servicing costs.
Cue up the hoards of excuse mongers on why investor confidence is moot in a worldwide economy…..
(Response: What I found most concerning is that BC’s debt has tripled in just six years, the deficit is now running over $13 Billion … and, the report found, “with no path back to balance.” You are quite correct: today’s children and their children will pay the price for this … and yet, Eby’s/NDP popularity is still in decline, even with the generation now supposedly benefitting from the massive over-spending. Ho)
Reminds me of Kamala Harris
Ebys bloated bureaucracy
Bloated debt
Dripa uncertainty
Diverted public safe drug supply and then getting misleading updates to public?
Reducing oversight for contracts?
Shutting down municipal ombudsman office?
(Response: Clearly the people are not happy. If a politician’s ratings keep falling even after the announcement of $20 billion worth of project approvals and monies coming to the province from Ottawa, he’s in deep trouble!
Sunday night on Global News, they had a story about handicapped man, confined to a horizontal wheelchair type device who has been told he no longer qualifies for the provincially funded Handi-dart service … after using it for 28 years!! Minister Farnworth said the issue is being looked into. Ridiculous! I sat there, wondering how many more votes the NDP lost with that story. Ho)
Sunday night?
They revisited it.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday…
Global has flogged that story to death.
Perhaps hoping ( expecting?) for a govt reversal?
It reminded me of Global reporter Netu Garcha’s endless First Nations blame sessions night after night after night …for months a few years back.
I stopped watching the 6pm anti colonizer tirade.
Apparently a lot of other people did as well.
She aint in BC anymore.