This is no time for Prime Minister Mark Carney to cave in any more to Donald Trump’s bullying.
Canadians for months now have suffered job losses, economic hardships and emotional hurt and anger as a result of the US President’s tariffs, threats and insults … with Canada doing little or nothing to push back.
The latest on Canada, new 50% tariffs on another $20 Billion of select Canadian goods Trump are scheduled to kick in August 19.
But times … and the US economy to … are changing: so much so, I believe Trump will likely back off on most of announced new tariffs.
Why? Has the Mad Hatter suddenly realized the benefits of a fortress North America economy? Does he suddenly realize the benefits/value to the US of having a close trading partner and ally on its northern border?
Of course not.
But what is happening is that even Trump’s sycophantic Cabinet Secretaries and MAGA Republican Congress members can read the writing on America’s walls: the US too is starting to pay the price for Trump’s policies.
Growth of the US Gross Domestic Product FELL in June to only 1.5% … down from 2.1% in the previous quarter.
US exports also fell by 1.8% to a five month low of $204.7 Billion in June, a second consecutive monthly decline.
The world … not only Canadians … are checking the labels, and buying fewer American goods.
Remember, Trump has not only insulted, threatened, hit Canada with tariffs but virtually every other US trading partner as well.
“The drop was mainly due to lower goods exports, which decreased $11.3 billion to $210.6 billion. Industrial supplies and materials fell $5.5 billion, led by sharp declines in nonmonetary gold ($6.2 billion), other precious metals ($1.3 billion), and natural gas ($1.1 billion),” the TradingEconomics.com website reported.
” Consumer goods also declined $2.1 billion, including a $0.9 billion decrease in pharmaceutical preparations.”
(U.S. goods exports to Canada in 2025 were $336.5 billion, down 3.8 percent ($13.4 billion) from 2024.)
And that’s not all.
“A separate report showed that inflation in America grew at a 3.7% annualized rate in June of this year, which is well ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2% target,” the Baystreet Business reported last week.
“Slowing growth in an environment of rising inflation has raised fears of stagflation, an economic situation that hasn’t been seen in the U.S. since the late 1970s,” it said.
Trump’s tariffs have not only driven UP costs for Americans, but more and more of them are also noticing … and not buying the “spin” that others are paying for them.
A Harris poll done for the UK Guardian newspaper found more than 70% of US respondents realize tariffs “have led to them paying higher prices”.
“Americans are experiencing the most sticker shock at the grocery store, with 57% saying that tariffs have negatively affected grocery prices,” the survey found.
And Trump’s tariffs on Canadian lumber have led to huge increases in housing construction costs.
“U.S. home prices hit an all-time high as sales slow and mortgage rates rise,” read the Bloomberg headline July 9.
Mortgage rates in the US are now at 6.66% (the DEVIL made them do it?), the highest level in a year, according to Bloomberg News.
Farm bankruptcies rose 46% in 2025; manufacturing jobs have declined; and; despite tariffs, US imports from China have actually INCREASED
“Trump promised a ‘golden age’ for U.S. manufacturing, but his own policies have hampered investment and job growth,” Los Angeles Times business columnist Michael Hiltzik wrote last month.
All this, of course, adds up … or, perhaps more accurately, drops the Mad Hatter’s popularity down … way down!
A CNN poll last week rated Trump’s approval on: the economy, 30%; inflation, 25%; having the right priorities, 27%.
A Fox poll rated his handling of: the economy: excellent, good 24%; fair, poor 76%.
With the US midterms on the political horizon, the Republicans NEED some good news.
Announcement of a trade deal with Canada would be a BIG win; proceeding with those latest 50% tariffs on Canada would be a disaster … and not just for Canada!
Americans will pay even more, increasing their cost of living even more.
Carney must not cave in again.
If Trump proceeds with new tariffs on Canada, Carney must hit back with tariffs on US foods/produce/goods (foods/produce/canned goods) that Canadians can easily replace with domestic or foreign offerings from friendlier nations.
Harv Oberfeld
🇨🇦🇨🇦Check the labels. BUY CANADIAN!🇨🇦🇨🇦
(Follow @harveyoberfeld on “X” for FREE First Alerts to new postings on the Blog/)
The old caution of be careful what you wish for might be of merit in the discussion of Trump, Canada, and CUSMA. A quick look at the El-Sayer, the winner of the Democratic primary in Michigan position on USMCA is “El-Sayed sharply criticized the USMCA, arguing that the agreement continued policies that weakened Michigan’s manufacturing sector and harmed autoworkers throughout the industrial Midwest.” (Arab-American News report on debate with Stevens)
The Democratic Socialist of America (DSA), who now control Democratic primaries, much like Trump controls Republican primaries state their position on CUSMA, as reported by several sources’ “(DSA) opposes traditional corporate free-trade agreements like the USMCA, viewing them as instruments of corporate globalization that undermine the working class, depress wages, and weaken environmental protections across North America.” The DSA has no position on bilateral trade with Canada but feel all trade agreements favour Corporate profits over worker rights. The outcome of November may not bode that well for Canada with either a Trump Republican or DSA Democratic win.
It may be that the people who opposed the first Free Trade agreement in the 80s were correct with respect to integration of the Canadian and American economies.
Not in position to judge if it was the correct decision for the short term gain, but it obvious we had no exit plan, and there have been many indications over the last 20 years that the America’s both Democratic and Republican were not happy with the agreement and favoured some forms of protectionism.
Remember when there was a push for one currency, thank goodness we never went down that road.
(Response: I think it is a bit of an exaggeration to suggest that the Democratic primaries are now “controlled“ by the radical socialists. First of all, there are only 33 of the 100 Senate seats up in the midterms; secondly, the number of extreme radicals nominated number only three or four… hardly a majority.Nevertheless, it is true that traditionally, the Democrats have been harder to deal with on trade issues and protectionism than the Republicans. So, although the vast majority of Canadians despise Trump, it actually may be better for Canada in the long run to have the Republicans retain control of the house and the Senate… knowing that,as my blog findings testify, the US economy (and international alliances) are paying a much higher price worldwide than Trump and his sycophants have let on … and Americans are feeling it and realizing the truth. Ho)
Due to the war he started, Trump has backed himself into a corner where he cannot escape unharmed and without looking foolish. He must “win at all costs”. Now his tariffs are not only causing the Americans to pay more for fuel, but now for everyday staples as well. More and more people cannot afford this higher cost of living and his popularity is at an all time low.
So now we have taunts and tantrums. Someone has to be blamed and Canada is right there in the cross hairs. Even rats backed into a corner can become dangerous.
This is just a personal opinion from a 75 year old who’s been around the block a few times. I could be wrong. I believe this started because Trump really disliked Justin Trudeau or more likely hated him. He tries to destroy his enemies or perceived enemies, so he goes against Canada.
Now he has to deal with Carney who is business savvy, respected in the G seven, and appears to be liked in the international community as well. Now Trump doesn’t want to appear weak or stupid or God forbid not as smart as Carney. Now he resorts with new tariffs for us and countries who use forced labour as a pretext to apply these added costs. His lawyers found this clause in a 100 year old law that still exists.
Next we are faced with being responsible for the pollution caused by forest fires. (He should check out the poor people in Washington state as well. Maybe he should discuss that smoke as well.) It appears he will always find something to rail about.
I pity our people negotiating Cusma with the Americans in Washington this week. Even if they work things out, he may change his mind the next day.
Canada has to respond. You have to stand up to a bully.
(Response: Not only the smoke, but the flames as well from Washington state have now poured into Canada, burning up more than 3000 acres on this side of the border. Where is the media in demanding of Trump whether he will pay us compensation? Or should we impose a “smoke tariff” on Washington state goods? Canadians have no grudge against our American neighbours, but Trump keeps applying tariff after tariff after tariff, like a true bully. He is trying to bring Canada to our knees. Enough is enough! If those tariffs go ahead on August 19, Carneymust react by targeting US products coming this way as well.To do nothing will encourage him to use Canada as a punching bag even more. Ho)
Canada’s imports from the US reached a record high in June, 2026!
Imports were $43.9B.
Canada’s imports from the US were up 11.7% year over year driven by computers and computer peripherals.
(Response! Yes, we certainly buy a lot from the US. Some of it is unavoidable: the products we need are only available from the United States. However where there are choices … countervailing duties should be applied, if Trump goes ahead with new tariffs Aug 19. BTW our exports to them were also up in June … only O.3% … but up for five months in a row! And Canada still has a monthly surplus of about $10 Billion. Our economies are certainly intertwined. Ho)
One leader who has handled President Trump well is President Sheinbaum of Mexico. Unlike Canada, Mexico did not retaliate when the tariffs were imposed, and it is now the largest trading partner of the USA, not Canada. While Canada decides what to do, her government is in active negotiations with the USA.
Canada and the China were the only countries that retaliated against the American tariffs. The difference is that China has far more leverage than Canada, does not depend so much on the USA for trade, and has a much larger economy than Canada does.
The media in Canada does not want to bite the hand that feeds it too much. Perhaps this is the reason many Canadians are completely unaware of two huge problems that Canada faces: flight capital and record numbers of Canadians who are leaving the country. More money has left Canada than entered in the last ten years. That is an astounding figure.
Many Canadians are leaving the country, and a lot of those are emigrating to the United States. High taxes, expensive homes, inadequate wages (our corporations love new Canadians) and the cost-of-living crisis are among the biggest reasons. Someone in the media should probably ask the prime minister why so many Canadians and so much money are leaving the country.
(Response: When you have a country that has 10% the population and a much smaller economy than its neighbour, it’s nothing new that some Canadians will head south to work, especially if money is a prime motivator. I had several family members who did that …and tried to convince me to join them when “journalists” were included under NAFTA: I declined … I enjoy visiting the US, and maybe could have made more money, paid lower taxes etc. but I would never choose to live there, over Canada. And clearly, millions of others agree. As for Carney vs Sheinbaum, each has different economic/trade/border issues and I hope Carney DOES retaliate if Trump goes ahead with those threatened 50% tariffs go ahead: to do NOTHING would be worse for our self-respect and dignity. Ho)
Three months from today are midterms.
The Democrats are in disarray and perhaps even weaker than they were in 2024.
Any punishment handed to the GOP by the American people will be an anti-Trump, not a pro DEM vote, then the DEMs will need to show some real leadership over the remaining two years and I don’t see that happening.
Not a whole lot different from our own opposition, both federal and BC.
(Response: The Democrats are very busy, ensuring their own defeat in the next election . Like the BC Conservatives! All they each had to do was steer the center of the road, keeping their own wackos out of sight, and hopefully out of the media. Instead, they both seem to be determined to have such a large “tent” (to hold their extremists) it will likely collapse on them … and could actually help their arch rivals … clearly ripe for the picking … maintain power. Ho)
Canadians elected Mark Carney because he was the only leader who could handle Donald Trump. It seems clear that isn’t the case. Would Pierre Poilievre have done better? I can’t give a definitive answer, but I find it hard to believe he could have done worse. What is clear to me, though, is that the American president doesn’t respect contracts, is difficult to get along with, and has few allies.
I hope the 50% tariffs are just a negotiating tactic. Just waiting for the midterms is probably not a good strategy. It will be interesting to see what develops.
(Response: I disagree with you: I think Carney has handled Trump superbly so far. He knows how unstable and emotionally infantile he is, so he has kept the ultimate goal for Canada in mind and not responded to every insult, threat and tariff. But now, like the bully he is, Trump has gone too far … threatening 50% tariffs on many goods … and Carney MUST show he (and Canada) have had enough! I still think Trump will back down before August 19, but if he does not, Carney can no longer do nothing. Ho)
Has Prime Minister Carney done a superb job with the Gordie Howe bridge? It sounds like appeasement to me (Neville Chamberlain) and is very annoying because of the original story he tried to tell Canadians. The original deal signed between Canada and Michigan was that Canada would shoulder the full cost of building the bridge, which amounted to $6.4-billion, and in exchange Canada would collect all the revenue from tolls until the debt was repaid. Under the new deal, however, Canada will split revenues with the USA for the first 15 years.
Mr. Carney didn’t admit to the revenue-sharing deal when asked about the new arrangement earlier this month. “We are sharing after Canada is paid back,” he said while shaking hands at the Calgary Stampede. “We get the revenues. Then the servicing of the costs of the bridge and paying the debt of the bridge, and then what’s left over, there’s a split of that for 15 years.”
To me that sounds like a lie. The prime minister called it an imperfect explanation.
After the text of the deal was made public, the prime minister said that his earlier remarks were in reference to the original Michigan deal (though there was nothing about a 15-year split in the original agreement) and then played down the amount the U.S. will now collect through tolls as less than five per cent in present value of the overall cost of developing the bridge.
It’s curious thing that Mr. Carney would lie, or communicate imperfectly, about the deal when the details were bound to become public eventually. Maybe he was not prepared the question. It might have been his instinct to protect his image that took over in that moment. As Canadians know, he was elected on the strength of a promise to rescue and protect Canada’s economy. Handing over prize money to our economic rival not appear to correspond to the mandate he was given by the Canadian voter.
Of course if you think he has handled President Trump superbly, that is your opinion. However, I strongly disagree, and a number of polls suggest that Canadians are disappointed with his performance. Perhaps the American president wasn’t joking when he said he preferred Mark Carney.
(Response: Carney definitely caved on the bridge. But I don’t really believe that Poilievre would do any better against Trump’s bullying/extortion. Now, facing the possibility of new 50% tariffs effective Aug 19, I say enough is enough: if Trump goes ahead with those, Canada MUST selectively impose similar tariffs on US goods coming north … applying the tariffs to products Canadians can alternatively easily source either domestically or also available here from friendlier nations (apples, oranges, vegetables, potatoes, jams, jellies etc. Ho)
Oh, do not think Carney will cave like the wee P would have, rather I think Carney is reading the crystal ball quite well.
Here is another item that is coming into the fore; Trump never sticks to a deal,
License to build patriot rockets in the Ukraine, then no license to build patriot rockets in the Ukraine; nuclear reactors for Saudi Arabia then no nuclear reactors for Saudi Arabia.
Trump never honours signed contracts or agreements. Trump sole purpose in negotiating is to completely dominate the other party.
It is now very evident that the stock market which includes the Dow Jones is being manipulated and this has also registered with overseas financial interests and I think more bad news for the US economy is coming.
The USA is in a deep overseas crisis with the war in Iran (which the USA is loosing) and so far this year, 44,256 fires have burned more than 4.9 million acres across the United States, exceeding the 10-year average for both the number of fires and acres burned. Fire activity, so what is Trump doing, awarding himself trophies at his own golf club.
Currently, tax free smoke from nasty old Canada, just look out the window, your country is aflame.
The City of Spokane just about was lost to a massive wildfire where at last count, (Aug. 3, 2026) over 900 homes were consumed and Trump is playing golf!
The American Department of Justice have admitted they used fraudulent claims with the so called “Reflecting Pool” terror attack , which I mention to illustrate the rule of law in the USA is really the rule of Trump. And it’s getting worse.
The next question is the mid-term elections and will Trump allow them to happen? If the Trump/MAGA machine succeed is manipulating the midterm elections, then Canada should wash it hands of the USA, because any signed deal would be meaningless, a scrap of paper and nothing more.
The politcal dynamic in the USA just does not change daily, but almost hourly and Carney, I think is playing the long game and hopefully deal with a saner administration after the next round of elections, but I am not holding my breathe.
In the USA, we are seeing the end of an empire and Canada should play along, but always keeping a keen eye for the escape hatch and Canada must certainly have a plan “B” (if not a Plan “C”), if the entire relationship goes south.
(Response: Agreed: Trump’s word or signature isn’t really worth very much: he can change his position the very next day. But he’s all we have to work with down south these days, so I wish Carney luck. However, Canada must not cave any more! We gave in on the digital services tax, the Geordie How bridge and withdrew some retaliatory tariffs… and it got us NOTHING in return. No more caving! If Trump hits us Aug 19, as he has threatened, Carney must hit back … or the Mad Hatter bully will realize he can keep picking on Canada to impress his MAGA base without any consequences. Ho)
How do ya deal with a complete immature moron like Trump anyways who threatened to tariff Canada for the smoke from our wildfires, and then there’s his cabal of mostly cowards, clapping seals and even wack jobs that make up his cabinet of clowns. An insane president, a warmongering ass kissing manchild Secretary of defense, WAR actually, which speaks for itself and an utterly incompetent nutjob like RFK in charge of the Health department. Well there it is for just a glimpse into what our countries leaders have to deal with. I agree though that maybe Carney needs to stiffen his spine a bit more , but how does one deal with that sick bastard no matter how tough Carney or others in our allied world community of freindship. Trump turns on anything and anyone on a dime in a moment. All I can add is I pray Americans can take care of their own monster they’ve created and allowed to run rampant.
(Response: Happy to see more and more Americans, even Republican supporters, are waking up to the damage Trump has done to the middle class, small and medium sized businesses and US international relations. A YouGov survey of more than 1,000 Americans saw Trump ranked by 32% as “the worst American in US history”, compared to Biden at 6%, Obama at 8%, and even Jeffrey Epstein at 14%. Ho)
What more can one say… you have hit right on Harv … if we have to use tariffs, I would suggest power from Quebec to New York etc …And remember, there is two MORE years of the Mad Hatter … could be worse .. hope not.
(Response: Carney has ruled out putting an export tax on Canadian energy (petroleum, natural gas, electric), but if Trump goes ahead (I doubt he will!) with that ridiculous 50% tariff on Canadian goods, Canada MUST do something. The key is to tariff at 50% too US products they sell to us, but which we already also can get from producers/suppliers in Canada or already import from other countries …so don’t need the US. How about US apples, oranges, vegetables, jam, peanut butter, cereals etc. I recently bought canned fruit from South Africa and Greece, cheaper than the major US brands! Ho)