Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced three federal by-elections April 13 to fill vacancies two vacancies in Toronto and one in Quebec.
Watch those results very closely!
Victories in all three would give the Liberals majority government. However, anything less could lead to ALL Canadians going to the polls again this Spring.
Here’s why:
Carney has been doing very well in polling.
“The latest Leger poll for Postmedia not only gives Mark Carney and the Liberals a 14-point lead over Poilievre and the Conservatives, the Liberals also lead in all demographic groups and in every region of the country save the prairies,” the Toronto Sun reported March 5th.
“With the NDP languishing at 5% voter support nationally and the Bloc Quebecois at just 25% in Quebec, such a result – if it came true – at the ballot box would deliver a massive majority government for Carney and the Liberals,” columnist Brian Lilley explained. (Read the full article here: https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/polls-show-why-conservatives-dont-want-election-now.)
Clearly, Poilievre is still failing to impress.
Plus, the NDP is still in shambles:
“The New Democrats had their worst election showing ever last April, with only seven MPs surviving in the House of Commons. Leader Jagmeet Singh lost his own seat and resigned,” the CBC noted Friday.
The party won’t even name its new leader until March 29 and then have to rebuild/refocus/regain public confidence and support.
But perhaps the biggest incentive for Carney to go to the polls is the coming renegotiations of the CUSMA Free Trade Agreement with the United States.
That is going to be ugly!
I wouldn’t envy any government trying to negotiate with the Mad Hatter … and there are growing expectations that to achieve an agreement (if that’s even possible!), Canada will have to suffer some highly unpopular … and costly … concessions/changes/losses.
And let’s keep it real: whatever deal Canada works out (again, if that’s even possible) will be a gift to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
The Opposition Leader will, of course, denounce it as a sell-out of Canadian industries/jobs/communities … worse than he had expected … and hundreds of thousands, or millions of affected Canadian voters would provide fertile ground for the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, Quebec must hold its next provincial election by October: the separatist Parti Quebecois is leading in the polls; and any CUSMA concessions, especially impacting dairy, would prove very rich fodder there.
So why wait to call a federal vote?
Instead, Carney could blame the Conservatives/Bloc/NDP for obstructionism in getting Bills passed that would lower Canadians’ taxes, bolster the economy, toughen crime and bail reform … and he could even appeal to voters for a “strong mandate” to take on Trump/CUSMA.
So watch those three by-elections April 13.
If they fail to deliver Carney his majority, a general election in late May or early June could turn into a reality.
Harv Oberfeld
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HO: “But perhaps the biggest incentive for Carney to go to the polls is the coming renegotiations of the CUSMA Free Trade Agreement with the United States.
That is going to be ugly!”
Canada and Mexico should just forget about CUSMA and let Trump throw hissy fits. The agreement does not end in 2026 and if there is no movement it stays in place until 2036.
Ignore it for now.
Gilbert, Carney is popular because he is neither Trudeau nor Poilevre, along with a few semi-statesman like qualities. Canada’s global image has been enhanced by him; Canadians are warm and fuzzy with that.
(Response: Canada can’t “just forget about CUSMA”: 85% of our products cross the border duty free under CUSMA, giving Canadian companies access to a market serving 10 times our population. Adding tariffs to all those goods and US goods heading north would be crippling to both economies. I know Carney/Poilievre realize that: I just hope Trump does too! Ho)
We are forgetting fixed election dates. The law was put in by Stephen Harper primarily to prevent snap elections where governments pick favourable times when they are fairly certain they will win. I support that law.
However it doesn’t stop elections from occurring before the four years. A vote of non confidence automatically triggers an election as it should. If the government can’t pass bills then an election is the only solution. This happened in 2011.
The election of 2008 was called by Harper before a non-confidence vote. The opposition was being uncooperative even in committee. The GG allowed Harper’s request for an election which I think is reasonable. If the parliament is dysfunctional call an election.
But none of that applies here. Carney is likely to have a majority. If the Libs win all three bi elections they will have a full majority. They won’t need the speaker to break any ties. If they win just the two safe Toronto seats, they will need the speaker to break ties. By tradition the speaker usually votes for the status quo. He would vote with the Liberals on confidence votes because that maintains the status quo. The speaker would vote against any legislation.that involved changing the status quo. If that were to happen too often Carney might have an argument for an early election. But we are a long way from that.
And if they can’t win both safe seats then they have a minority and are likely in more trouble than the polls indicate.
(Response: Yes, if Carney obtains even a slim majority as a result of the April 13 by-elections, that lessens the justification for calling a snap election, but not the political motivation. As for the GG, I’m sure if Carney argued Opposition obstructionism is crippling his government’s ability to govern, she would acquiesce. Ho)
I don’t understand Mark Carney’s popularity. Of course he has an impressive resume, and he’s well-known on the world stage, but what exactly has he accomplished? By elevating the First Nations over other groups, he reminds me of communism in which some are more equal than others. He’s even popular in Quebec, even though he struggles so much in French. Son français n’est pas impressionant.
The perception of many is that Pierre Poilevre is too right-wing, but he’s far less conservative than Maxime Bernier. I say it’s time to put an end to the ridiculous floor-crossing that’s taking place. If self-serving politicians want to switch parties, they should have to face their voters. I didn’t like it when Liberals crossed the floor to join Conservatives, either, so I’m against it no matter what parties are involved. It goes against the principle of democracy.
It’s ironic that many on the left support a banker whose policies are for the rich, but he obviously knows how to convince voters that he’s on their side. The NDP is going nowhere, and President Trump continues to hurt the Conservative Party’s chances. It seems inevitable that Mark Carney will soon have his majority, and maybe there will soon be another election. I expect more hardship for Canadians who seem far too willing to blame external factors such as climate change, the pandemic, the USA and endless wars for the country’s current problems.
(Response: Carney has a knack for impressing voters that he is competent and trustworthy; Poilievre not so much. But once the CUSMA negotiations are seriously under way and word gets out that Canada is making concessions … any concessions … that will give Poilievre ammunition. That’s why I’m sure Carney/Liberals are weighing a snap election in May/June. Ho)
Two slam dunks in Ontario and a squeaker in Quebec which I think they also will win as it’s almost a year since the one vote win. Then Carney’s claim to fame was he wasn’t Justin Trudeau, and now we and the relevant voters know who he is, and his and the liberals numbers are very high, and with the latest floor crosser that will give him enough seats not to call an election. Should he call one with some folks projecting 200 or so seats?, to my mind no and why take the chance on something going sideways, as there may be some blowback for the libs. boosting their seats by back room deals not going down to well with the voters for example.
I don’t believe the population wants one, rumors of more floor crossers kicking the tires, too much going on with agent orange of mar a lago, and the last thing we need is a political horse race whilst the trade talks are going on, which the states ( and maybe others) would exploit in a heartbeat and wouldn’t put it past them to interfere in that election process any way they could overtly and covertly.
And although the conservatives would make the right election noises, opposition is a safe place to be. Polievre’s numbers are ho hum and is still a liability despite his efforts to do a makeover and wouldn’t survive another loss. As the liberals have to deal with trump and all that entails for the next 3 years, the opposition can sit back and do what opposition parties do, whilst building support and waiting for the inevitable stumbles the liberals will make, and maybe take another look at finding a new leader as it seems to me unless one is die hard conservative that voted for Polievre at the convention set up to get him a large number, he will become to the great unwashed as tiring as Justin Trudeau became.
(Response: With another MP crossing to the Liberals and almost sure Liberal wins in two of the three April 13 by-elections, Carney will get a very slim majority. That will lessen the likelihood of a Spring election … but not totally eliminate it. Carney may still want to strengthen his majority, take advantage of his high scores in polling and, most importantly, get a vote in before he has to make any tough concessions to Trump in the coming trade negotiations. Ho)
I think it is very optimistic, if there will be any serious trade negotiations as the USA is now mired in what will soon to be a religious forever war in Iran and spectre of Epstein lingers over the Whitehouse like a bad smell.
There is worse, the MAGA GOP are desperately trying to rig the midterms and though the courts are siding with the law, this may not last and then all hell will break loose.
Trump wants chaos to cancel the mid terms.
The way I see it, and depending which side of the bed Trump gets up in the morning, the negotiations will be:
1) Cancelled
2) A quick agreement
3) So lop-sided in the USA’s favour that Canada will walk away.
And this can be changed like the grifter’s “pick the pea under the pot” routine almost every day.
Trump will desperately retain what is left of MAGA, with current polling at about 40% of the population. The Democrats have proven to be more than inept as most are only slightly less Conservative than the Republicans.
Back to the basic question will Carney call an election in the spring, depending on the outcomes of the 3 bye-elections a definite maybe.
We are “living in interesting times”.
You maybe right on this and I think Eby is having second thoughts as well.
Federally, The “Wee Pee” is seen as yesterday’s damaged goods, full of MAGA hate and disinformation, no longer relevant to the current geopolitical climate.
CUSMA is dead in the water and Trump wants total supplication from Carney and Canada and it ain’t going to happen if Carney wants to be re-Elected. Also, if things go in the USA, the way I think they will do, CUSMA will be the very last thing on Trumps agenda.
Me thinks Carney is fully aware of this and busily signing any and all international trade agreements to help soften the blow.
The NDP have virtually disintegrated under the absolutely shambolic leadership of Singh and it maybe time to put the knife in and end the charade that the NDP is nothing but a collection of antisemitic, has beens.
Provincially, Eby’s NDP is fragmenting under the weight og a horrendous defitis and an absolutely vacant agenda, except to give land title to the first nations and screw over the elderly.
If Eby moves now to an election, he may a salvage a slight victory or even enough seats to still retain being a viable provincial party, while the Conservatives who are try to find a leader the people will vote for. Next year, I have been told, the NDP may see a repeat of 2001 if an election were to be held.
2026 maybe the the year the USA collapses under its own weight of politcal corruption, national debt, poverty, a cancelled mid-terms, and god help us, an epidemic.
One would think, after reading the tea leaves, Carney would want to secure a healthy mandate for 2027 and beyond.
(Response: Federal Spring election … possible; BC Spring provincial election…NO! Carney could win; Eby would be defeated. Ho)