On Iran, Trump Got it Right — Maybe

Most Canadians really dislike (too mild a word?) Donald Trump; regard him as quite a disgusting person; a liar; a racist; and, many even believe he’s mentally unstable.

But that doesn’t mean Trump is always wrong.

For 40 years, the Iranian government has been the most brutal, repressive, intolerant, terrorist-supporting regime … in not just the Middle East, but the world. And that takes some doing!

The Iranian administration admits to have killed, just weeks ago, more than 3,000 of its own citizens (injuring many thousands more) who were protesting economic conditions/lack of freedoms.

Just think: what kind of government ADMITS killing thousands of its own citizens … protesting students, women, shopkeepers, workers!

Some sources place the death toll at between 7,000 and 32,000, but it’s hard to reach Iranians to get first-hand figures/accounts because Internet access in Iran has been cut off for weeks.

Then, there was Mahsa Amini. The 22-year-old woman was detained, tortured and murdered in 2022 by Iran’s morality police after allegedly violating strict hijab laws. Incredible!!!

And Amini was not an isolated case.

“Iran executed at least 901 people in 2024, a significant increase from 834 in 2023, with the country accounting for 64% of all recorded executions worldwide,” according to Wikipedia.

The Shiite Iranian regime has also targeted, carried out attempted kidnappings, assassinations, and murdered critics/opponents throughout the world … and has been widely accused of being the largest financial sponsor and arms supplier of Islamic terrorist groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

And over the past two years, the Iranian mullahs have supplied Russia with thousands of incendiary/killer drones used to decimate military, infrastructure and civilians in Ukraine.

Truly a horrific regime … without even taking into account their 2024 attack on Israel (300 rockets, drones, ballistic missiles) or their sustained secret attempts over decades to develop a nuclear weapon and long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S.

Iran has been and would have continued to be the single biggest obstacle to stemming terrorism and finally achieving widespread stability and even peace in the Mid East.

Saturday, the timing was right, the forces were aligned and the circumstances provided a unique opportunity … so the US and Israel struck, taking out 40 of Iran’s top leadership, levelling a thousand Iranian military targets/infrastructure/missile launchers.

As I write this, the mission is continuing … and will hopefully lead to regime change.

And that’s where my own “Maybe” in considering the wisdom of the whole operation comes in.

Trump’s “go ahead’ for the US attack was the right decision … IF a better regime/government emerges for the people of Iran, the Middle East and world peace in general.

But without troops on the ground to install a new administration, unless there’s an as-yet-unknown secret plan/arrangement for an Opposition force or a group of moderate Iranian military generals to wrest power from the Revolutionary Guards (or the even more vicious Basij internal security force) the whole US adventure could collapse and lead to just another Supreme Leader and even more repression.

The next few weeks will tell: either proving Trump’s move was brilliant; or a disaster for the US, the Mid East … and the Iranian people.

Harv Oberfeld

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14 Responses to On Iran, Trump Got it Right — Maybe

  1. Eldon says:

    Ok, surely at this point everyone can agree the attacks on Iran are at best ineffective and at worst a disaster. Strait of Hormuz effectively blockaded, a new Supreme Leader that’s the son of the last one, and no sign of the locals uprising to overthrow. I’d love to be wrong, but this appears to be a colossal waste of lives and money.

    (Response: It’s not over yet … but it is starting to look like the dream of regime change is turning into a nightmare. I would not call it a waste: decimating the mullahs’ ability to restart nuclear enrichment, destroying their ballistic missile and drone operations and even arm/fund terrorist groups around the region is a good thing. But delay is certainly not as good as total change. Ho)

  2. Edgar says:

    Not doubt the world is in a more precipitous state with Trump than when Bush invaded Iraq and Obama did what ever he did in Syria and Liberia, but at the time if felt like Canada had better leadership. Sorry not a fan of Carney, he is an articulate banker like Macon, and then you add on Eby and host of other premiers and civic leader I am worried about the future of the province and nation.

    (Response: Carney seems to be all over the place in trying to outline Canada’s position on the Iran war. He should stand firm in supporting the removal of the Islamic mullahs who have oppressed, murdered and wrought havoc against their own people, the Mid East and the world. Regime change is the only thing that will enable peace: period! Ho)

  3. Not Sure says:

    Harvey, I agree 100% with your statement: “In watching this war unfold ..we should all be very careful in LISTENING to the words/bias of the networks reporting it.”

    But your comment is directed specifically at the CBC. You criticize one reporter for not mentioning that Hezbollah shot first into Israel and that there was no mention of the effects Hezbollah bombs have had on Israelis. Is this a CBC general policy? Very quick google search to find this.
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-troops-lebanon-hezbollah-9.7113533

    “Israel sent troops into southern Lebanon … THE DEVELOPMENT CAME AFTER HEZBOLLAH FIRED ROCKETS AND LAUNCHED DRONES (my emphasis) early Monday toward northern Israel. Israel retaliated with a wave of airstrikes that killed 50 people in Lebanon, including seven children as well as a Palestinian militant and a Hezbollah intelligence official…”

    Yeh but they never mention the people in Israel who are suffering, someone might say. Except for this video headlined
    This is the damage after an Iranian strike killed 9 in Israel
    https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.7111960

    Was David Common being purposely biased or just lazy, assuming that his audience knows the back story. How far back do we go on a new news story. Israel invaded Lebanon because Hezbollah shot missiles because Israel/US attacked Iran because the US thought there was an imminent threat etc etc.

    Here is a CBC online story this morning about Lebanese British Columbians and their worries for families back home. This is its opening. It is factual. Is it biased?

    B.C. residents with family in Lebanon say they are watching the escalating conflict in the Middle East with fear, as Israeli airstrikes and evacuation orders push more civilians from their homes and deepen worries that ordinary people will once again bear the cost of war. It comes after the U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran killed the country’s clerical ruler, Ali Khamenei, a week ago. The Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah then fired rockets and drones from Lebanon into Israel. Israel retaliated with a wave of airstrikes …
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/lebanese-community-in-vancouver-fear-over-middle-east-conflict-9.7119318a

    The article is mainly about the Lebanese community in BC (is that a bias?) but it also ends with several sentences about how happy and hopeful the BC Iranian community is (is that a bias?)

    To be clear, I am not trying to defend the CBC. I am just following your advice to question everything I see or read including comments about media bias. Our trust in the press has already been eroded by the likes of Trump and Fake News claims with every story they perceive as critical. Now we have people, particularly younger people, heading to youtube and tiktok to get there “news” from influencers, many/most? of whom are far more biased and misinformed than anything the mainstream media is reporting.

    Absolutely check for bias, but all of us have to be conscious of our own bias and how that influences how we interpret information.

    And, if my hearing didn’t fail me, I thought the anchor this morning said that Adrienne Arsenault was in Amman Jordan. Maybe she is moving around and not just staying in Tel Aviv.

    (Response: Very interesting. Thanks. I have been watching a lot of CBC’s TV coverage the first week of the war and I’m afraid that …for whatever reason …it is quite different from the on-line print articles you cite. But I am now noticing a shift. Whether there has been heat applied behind the scenes or the evidence of Iran’s extremism (attacking several Arab countries as well as Israel, purposely targeting clearly civilian facilities, using cluster bombs) they are doing better in showing/calling out Iran’s actions. I also noticed Adrienne Aresenault is now in Jordan …but I suspect that’s only a sidetrip …and she’ll be back reporting from safer (for the media) Israel in short order. And their on-air reporting of Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon still FAILS to mention/point out/attribute the TOTAL cause of those actions occurred only AFTER Hezbollah broke the ceasefire agreement and fired rockets into Israel. The truth is most Lebanese would be grateful if Israel could drive Hezbollah from their country permanently! Ho)

  4. daniel says:

    Trump believes the Iranian regime will let him be part of the process of picking the head of the new regime without considering that religion is also a big part of this process.
    He thinks this will be as easy as taking over Venezuela was and that this can be done by bombing almost almost everything in sight, with no boots on the ground.
    Lets see what the Islamic Revolutionary guard has to say about this. No one has even mentioned them yet.

    (Response: Iran will be much more difficult/complicated than Venezuela … because it involves ideology and religion …not just a kleptocracy and Mafiosa-style administration. If Trump and the US military have a specific end game plan in mind, they’re not saying what it is. And if they don’t, that’s worse! Ho)

  5. Not Sure says:

    To add to DMJ’s comments. A friend sent me a article talking about the same thing. It was from the Guardian. I consider the Guardian a reliable source. I consider pretty much all mainstream media reliable sources including Fox and CNN. They have their biases when they editorialize but the stories are generally factual.

    Anyway, I decided to search further and found this CNN article from last June after the bombing of Iran, dealing with Biblical prophecy and the end times.
    https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/29/us/iran-israel-evangelicals-prophecy-cec

    It is interesting but longish so one highlight. Last summer, Trump received a text message from Mike Huckabee the US ambassador to Israel.

    “In the text, which was shared by Trump, Huckabee alluded to the two assassination attempts Trump survived last year in saying that God spared him “to be the most consequential President in a century—maybe ever.” He added, “I trust your instincts,” because “I believe you hear from heaven,” and that “You did not seek this moment. This moment sought YOU!”

    At a press conference yesterday, Karoline Levitt was asked about the imminent threat that triggered the war. She said “The President had a feeling based on fact” What the hell does that even mean? God told him??

    (Response: As I watch the war (Yes, it IS a war) unfold, I am becoming more and more convinced Trump had no firm plan for how it all will end. He seems to have hoped locals would rise up and take on the very heavily armed Iranian Guard and Bajis Internal Security forces. But with what? Did he leave it to God to supply them weapons? I’m still hopeful the Islamic regime will be toppled …maybe by the regular army …but I believe US boots on the ground would prove a costly disaster: the country is fairly large and there are millions who support the mullahs.
    By the way, you mention the media. Well, I hope people are noticing the CBC … as usual … is trying to portray Israel as the major aggressor, highlighting how it is attacking Iran and Lebanon, but downplaying and minimizing the damage and the terror Israeli families and especially children are suffering every night from Iranian missiles, drones and even cluster bombs. . Listen carefully to the CBC’s “reporting”: on Wednesday morning, David Common (who I used to really respect in covering Canadian news) told viewers “Now the Israelis have opened another war, targeting Hezbollah across their northern border with limited air strikes and now unlimited ground invasion”. Notice what was missing? NO MENTION that Israel struck back ONLY AFTER Hezbollah FIRST fired rockets (once more) into Israel!! Kind of as key point, I would say, in explaining Israel’s actions!! Just an oversight? Well, today (Friday) Common “reported” … ” Israel, who without the Americans have begun this operation inside Lebanon and looks like it’s about to continue for some time.” Again, Israel “begun” the operation? ..ie started it all? … and again NO MENTION that Hezbollah STARTED it all on that front FIRST by firing rockets into the Israeli towns along the border… even though they were specifically warned by Israel not to start!
    And the biggest hypocrisy: despite what I see as a consistent, very clear anti-Israel bias, the CBC crew’s war HQ is in Israel … not Jordan, Palestinian Ramallah, Lebanon or Egypt .. . but in democratic Israel, where they know they can daily spew their bias …but not end up arrested or dead the next day!
    In watching this war unfold ..we should all be very careful in LISTENING to the words/bias of the networks reporting it. Ho)

  6. Donald M Johnston says:

    Further to my comments,

    This war in Iran is getting more and more scary. I heard this a few times on news blogs on the net and after some research, this is what I have found.

    “U.S. commanders across more than 30 military bases told troops the Iran war is part of “God’s plan” and linked it to “Armageddon.”

    One commander said Trump was “anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon.”

    The Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF) says it has received over 110 similar complaints describing the war as “biblically-sanctioned” and a sign of the Christian “End Times.””

    Source: Jonathan Larsen / Substack

    If this is the garbage that the US military is feeding its troops, then Trumps attack and politcal decapitation of Iranian leaders, is fulfilling an Evangelical American prophecy.

    A hell of a way to get your Muslim allies on your side!

    • Eldon says:

      I thought this had to be fake when I first read it. Nope, they actually believe this.

      • Donald M Johnston says:

        I was equally skeptical when I first heard it, but I found 3 credible sources reporting this.

        From the news today, it seems the USA is quietly begging Zelensky how to counter the Shahed drones! Talk about who is holding the cards now!

        For Trump, this is turning into another Vietnam, popularity wise and OMG, MTG actually sounds sane, even F bombing Trump on FOX Entertainment.

        It is like being in a Twilight Zone episode, where a traveler is transported into another dimension.

        (Response: I still support the US/Israeli attempt to get rid of the horrific Islamic extremist regime and liberate the Iranian people from the tyranny they have suffered under for 46 years. However, it’s beginning to look like Trump has no “end game” plan … and that could result in quite a quagmire for the US, the Mid East and the rest of the world. Ho)

  7. Gilbert says:

    What happened to President Trump’s promise of no more wars? One of the big reasons he became president in the first place was his opposition to the invasion of Iraq. As Marjorie Taylor Greene stated, Americans thought he was different. It seems to me that President Trump has changed since the assassination attempts against him.

    Many readers may not be aware that Iran had a democratically-elected leader, Prime Minister Mohammad Mosadegh, who was ousted in 1953 in a coup backed by the CIA and M16. The Shah was an ally of the United States, but many Iranians were very unhappy with his leadership. Though the current regime is unpopular, there is no doubt that it has its supporters. There were Iranians in deep mourning when they learned of the death of their Supreme Leader.

    The son of the Shah is probably very interested in returning to power. However, if that happens, there is little doubt that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will try to kill him. Remember the Iran-Iraq war. Iraq never expected it to last so long, but the Iranians refused to surrender.

    If the USA puts soldiers on the ground, and that is normally necessary for regime change, the war could become very messy. Iran is a much larger country than Iraq, and it is an ally of Russia and China. There is no guarantee that the war will only last three to four weeks. Of course many Iranians are glad that the Supreme Leader is no longer in power, but this war could have disastrous consequences.

    (Response: I can’t see how the current Iranian government will be overthrown without boots on the ground. Certainly not Israeli! But why American ? The surrounding Arab countries have lived in fear of Iran for decades …letting Israel/US do their dirty work and paying for it all . Maybe they should help liberate their Islamic neighbours? Ho)

  8. Donald M Johnston says:

    It is called the Epstein War as the Epstein scandal is following Trump like a lost puppy. The smell of Epstein is all over Trump and he needs something, anything, stop the odor of being the “PedoPresident”.

    Trump is now desperate to halt the mid term elections because if the Democrats win, it means impeachment and probably jail. A war in the Middle East just maybe the ticket to gain absolute power.

    From what is now being reported is that in the middle of negotiations, Netanyahu told Trump to attack and he did, without any game plan, without telling the allies. Even the US embassies were not notified. It is a total mess.

    But the Iranians are Muslims, and dress funny, so who cares if they killed 165 people, mostly young girl students at a school by a US missile, but then school children are killed quite regularly in the USA and the country doesn’t care, because they do nothing about it.

    This war will turn into a fiasco, no matter how you look at it (when you have idiots in charge, do not be surprised at the results – RCN Quote) As it stands it is an illegal war, but then the rule of law is now all but gone in the USA and the world order has been skewered by Trump.

    Iran was being run a despotic theocracy, lost in the 10th centruy, but Trump is turning the USA back to the dirty thirties land of Jim Crow and openly corrupt politics.

    Iran’s revenge will happen and it will come and it is going to be horrible.

    The attack will be seen as an almost “Pearl Harbour” moment, but for the Iranians.

    The Middle East is ablaze tonight an almost replay of Sarajevo, 1914.

    (Response: It’s a Rubio red herring that the US attacked because Israel was going to do it IMMINENTLY anyway. Trump and other Republican mouthpieces have given a variety of reasons the US went now … take your pick! But if the people of Iran are indeed liberated …I would be happy. If the current regime survives …that would be a disaster for the Iranian people who yearn for freedoms… and the Mid East and rest of the free world too! Ho)

  9. nonconfidencevote says:

    I remember decades ago asking an Iranian co worker about the 1st Gulf War and what he thought would happen if the USA went into Iran.

    He looked at me with horror and said, ” Iraq has HALF the population of Iran. If the US invades Iran they have no idea what a sh!t storm that will create”

    Today Iran’s population is 92 million and I’m sure millions of men and women are military trained.
    It would be total anarchy and many Iranians, after seeing what happened to Iraq….want nothing to do with a US style Pax Americana.

    No.
    I think the US and Israel bombing Iran’s leadership and infrastructure from 25,000 feet high and pushing Iran back 30 years is enough to keep the Nuclear Genie in the bottle……for now.
    Boots on the ground, unless invited, would be a disaster.

  10. Eldon says:

    My response is to shrug. I’m glad the Ayatollah is dead, but the regime can be patient. The Americans have to leave eventually. I don’t envision major change in the mid-East.

    (Response: I am more hopeful that if the war ends up toppling the current regime, there could be a more moderate government installed. I suspect there are some generals in the regular army, who would enjoy their turn in power, if they can defeat and eliminate the zealots in the Republican guard and the internal militia. Or maybe even the return of the Crown Prince Pahlavi, who has promised democracy. The worst outcome would be the continuation of the current regime, which would unleash terrible retribution on the population and not solve anything internationally. Ho)

  11. Not Sure says:

    https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/february-28-2026

    This is an excellent analysis of Trump’s decision. It’s lengthy but worth reading.

    Two things can be correct. 1. The government in Iran is horrible and its people both in Iran and the 4 million who have moved since 1979 deserve better. And 2. Trump’s motives are unclear as are the endgame and consequences.

    Trump has already said that troops on the ground are possible but only for four weeks. How long did the war in Iraq last? And what happened there even after the US left.

    Fingers definitely crossed.

    (Response: My fingers are crossed as well. The liberation of the terribly oppressed people of Iran is a noble goal and the chances for peace, and a Palestinian state living side by side with Israel … even trading economically … would be enhanced with the mullahs and their terrorist proxies eliminated. BUT it’s Trump … and no one is sure (probably not even he) what the end plan is. I can’t imagine the “people” of Iran taking over without the help of US troops on the ground … and in confronting the Islamic zealots, blood will be shed. The question remains…will the end result be worth it … or just another Afghanistan? Ho)

  12. Bendelmac says:

    The only time I think Trump has it right .. otherwise he is just a modern day Hitler.
    Wants to own the world, and oil, and minerals … and Canada of course. This man will stop at anything and I do believe he is a little mental. And the Americans put up with him. He has done it right for once, …take on Iran … see what happens next. Be interesting on the comments to come … should be good reading …

    (Response: It all depends on the end result: he’ll either be a hero … or end up being castigated by everyone, including the MAGA crowd. Ho)

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