Prime Minister Justin Trudeau must regret not calling a Federal election in the Fall.
He would have won. … as did the three Premiers who did go to the polls despite the Covid pandemic.
In fact, the latest Ipsos poll, done for Global News Nov 20-23, shows Trudeau’s popularity is STILL fairly high: 60%.
Not even the huge projected deficit of $380 BILLION (still rising), nor the steadily increasing Covid case/deaths numbers have turned the voters off the PM.
In fact, if a federal election were held today, the November poll shows the Liberals would win 36% popular support; five points more than the Conservatives at 31%; the NDP 17%; the Bloc Quebecois 8%; and the Greens 7%.
You can read the full details of the Ipsos/Global poll here: https://globalnews.ca/news/7490302/canada-coronavirus-cases-justin-trudeau-approval/
As I wrote on this blog June 1 (https://harveyoberfeld.ca/watch-for-trudeau-and-horgan-to-call-early-elections/), there were several signs Trudeau/Liberals were preparing for an early vote, but they backed off, perhaps doubting holding a vote six months into a pandemic and hoping for better Covid times to come.
Instead, Covid cases have gotten worse … MUCH worse. There are now more than 370,000 confirmed cases of the virus in Canada and more than 12,000 deaths.
Provincial totals include: Quebec 141,050; Ontario 114,775; Alberta 56,475; BC 31,000.
Just imagine what the numbers will be following the coming Holiday season!
And as Canadians await and expect vaccines to save us; no doubt so are Trudeau and the Liberal government.
But the numbers surrounding the projected vaccine rollout are not looking so good right now for either the people or the government.
Sure, if approvals come in mid-December, millions of doses of the various vaccines will start to flow: but understandably, FIRST in the countries where they have been developed.
Canada has reportedly signed contracts for 414 million vaccine doses — more than sufficient to inoculate our 38 million citizens. If we get shipments!
Perhaps everything will go perfectly soon after the vaccines become available: a winning situation for Trudeau/the government.
The Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs Dominic Leblanc says Canada is “certainly in the top five” on the list of countries that will receive doses of the vaccine.
The chairman of Moderna Pharmaceuticals tried to offer reassurances last week “Canada is not far behind other countries” on their list of countries to supply. Who is ahead???
But the evidence is mounting that Canada won’t initially receive SUBSTANTIAL quantities … because other nations signed contracts with the various pharmaceutical firms before we did.
In fact, Trudeau and his Ministers themselves have already suggested Canadians should expect only six million doses before the end of March (enough to inoculate three million people) and it will September before even half our population will get access to the vaccine. And that’s their OPTIMISTIC projection.
It will really hurt the government if Canadians see millions of ordinary people elsewhere being immunized, while Canadians wait or, even worse, only a relatively privileged few here start getting vaccinated.
The Opposition parties couldn’t hope for a better political scenario!
Canadians seeing every night on the news millions of other people around the word in other countries getting vaccinated …while Canada muddles through supply problems, distribution chaos and/or inequities … provincial, regional and perhaps even political.
By then Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole will be much better known to the voters, have a regular platform in the Commons and be able to daily critique, question and condemn Trudeau/government’s handling … or mishandling … of the vaccine rollout.
A political minefield for Trudeau and the Liberal government.
Not even a Spring Budget with lots of spending, gifts and promises may be enough to keep their polling numbers high if Canadians, unable to get vaccinated, continue to suffer and die in high numbers.
Harv Oberfeld
Special Note: Vancouver City Council will hold a Hearing on it’s Budget for 2021: at 9:30 a.m. TUESDAY DEC 1 … here’s the link to watch or make submissions: https://council.vancouver.ca/20201201/spec20201201ag.htm .
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